It's that time of year again! (Hurricane Season Thread) (1 Viewer)

[P-town balla]

Howdy.

 

[efil4stnias]

which one is this thing?

That would be the one bclemms is referring to as follwing the path of Charlie im guessing. If CMC were able to "predict" this one, that would be interesting.

fwiw, models dont really do well predicting when somehting just isnt there. However, they have gotten better predicting when there is a wave/depression.

That one is an "invest" ( investigation ) that is just area to watch, closer.

 

[bclemms]

It is the one NHC had as a 40% chance of developing but it looks to be the same system the cmc model brings in a similar path to charlie. Looks like this will be one to watch but it at this point appears to be a long shot to have any major impact on the gulf coast.

 

[bclemms]

Also models can accurately predict systems forming as much as a week out. Typically you want to see a few models pick up on the storm and have the storm forming on several runs before putting much stock in it. The CMC was made specifically to predict tropical formation in mind more than predicting strength or path. It rarely misses a storm forming but it forms a lot of systems that never happen. Typically the GFS does really well when it s predicting a storm forming on several straight runs.

 

[bclemms]

Invest 95L is now tropical storm chantal.

 

[Zack Lee]

 

[RJ in Lafayette]

This is much too early to be talking about hurricanes and tropical storms.

 

[efil4stnias]

For me, the main component is that Bermuda high and how far back West it digs. The further West, the further West storms will track since they cannot plow thru High Pressure system. Is that a correct assumption?

Is there any component to models that strictly show the movement of the high over a period of a week or two?

 

[bclemms]

For me, the main component is that Bermuda high and how far back West it digs. The further West, the further West storms will track since they cannot plow thru High Pressure system. Is that a correct assumption?

Is there any component to models that strictly show the movement of the high over a period of a week or two?

Without complicating things too much, you are correct. The main thing that eats away at the eastern side of the high pressure along the Atlantic coast are low pressure systems along the jet stream which tends to run through Canada this time of the year. As a low approaches it pushes the high pressure farther east as it pushes away the high builds back in.

The GFS model is your best bet for long term trends with the high pressure.
Current run
gfs 2013070806 Forecast slp Java Animation

I get the model off the FSU tropical model page here but it can be found other places.
Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields

Just remember when looking at the models it goes almost two weeks out and don't put any stock in a single run because they constantly change. You want to start seeing consistency from run to run before putting much faith in it and before putting a lot of faith in it you want to see other major models looking similar. The GFS was showing the bermuda high building in and extending over the gulf a few days ago. Yesterday it was showing it retreating off the East coast and now it brings it right along the Florida coast. Just subtle details can shift things a thousand miles when looking a week or more out.

Right now I'd say the official forecast is really solid through through late Wednesday or early Thursday and then the models become less consistent. After Thursday the general path is pretty easy to predict but where, when and how dramatic it makes the turn to the north probably wont be more clear for another day or two.

 

[P-town balla]

It's about to get real, real quick.

 

[primadox]

I guess it's time for me to dust off the Tropical Update links for the season...I really thought I'd have until August to worry about this stuff, but I guess not. Ugh, here we go...

 

[bclemms]

It's about to get real, real quick.

I don't think Chantal will be much of anything if it has any impact on the US.


The one that may get interesting is the storm the GFS forms out in the Atlantic and brings up into the caribbean next week.

 

[P-town balla]

Yea, not really concerned about Chantal. Dorian, on the other hand....

 

[bclemms]

Yea, not really concerned about Chantal. Dorian, on the other hand....

Figured as much. I don't like the way model consensus is building a ridge over the NE with the western edge of the high pressure sitting over the northern gulf as Dorian starts making its way through the caribbean. Long way off though.

 

[kewee]

Great. I'm going to Disney World on monday.