It's the offense, stupid. (1 Viewer)

[Loose Cannon]

There's a lot of talk about the defense being to blame, or just a horrible series of luck and flukes, etc. I wanted to dig in a little bit further, because blaming the defense didn't really match what I thought I saw in the playoffs over the last three years.

Here's what I found:

- In our last four playoff games, the Saints have scored below their season average. And in the three home games, they've massively underperformed. By an average of more than a touchdown. In home games, we average 10 points less in the playoffs than the regular season.

	home/road	Season scoring average home or road	Actual Scored	Difference
2019	Min	28.4	20	-8.4
2018	LAR	34.1	23	-11.1
2018	Phi	34.1	23	-11.1
2017	@Min	25.8	24	-1.8
			Average Difference	-8.1

Checking to make sure scoring isn't down across the board in the playoffs, and we find that this is not the case for the successful playoff teams. Of the four teams who played on championship weekend, all but one averaged more points in the playoffs than they did in the regular season, and the Titans were just barely below (a single point).

	Season Avg.	Playoff Avg.	Diff
2019 Chiefs	28.2	43	14.8
2019 49ers	29.9	32	2.1
2019 Titans	25.1	24	-1.1
2019 Packers	23.5	24	0.5

In that same span, our defense has averaged giving up 22 points in the regular season, and in the playoffs, they gave up, on average... wait for it... 22 points (shocked Pikachu face). Even in our losses, the defense has played right to its expectation (which is a slightly above average defense).

It's not the defense letting the team down in the playoffs. The defense is putting out the exact same type of performance in the playoffs as they did in the regular seasons. It's the offense that's massively under-performing in the playoffs - to the tune of 10 points per game less.


Bottom line: If the Saints offense had simply performed to its regular season performance in the playoffs, they would have made the Super Bowl last year, and at the very least played Green Bay in the second round this year.

 

[Loose Cannon]

Just realized I forgot the Carolina game in 2018. That was one game we did outperform the regular season in (by about 5 points). In that game the defense played just about to its average once again.

So the offense is 1 for 5, not 0 for 4, in terms of outperforming its expectation. It doesn't move the averages much (a point or so)

Just making sure I'm being intellectually honest.

 

[rsmith2783]

This is really disappointing. We need to beef up the offense this year. No excuses.

 

[*KamaraG!rl*]

I honestly haven't seen the defense getting a lot of blame. I've mostly seen Drew and Payton (offense) getting a large part of the blame.

 

[dutar76]

There's a lot of talk about the defense being to blame, or just a horrible series of luck and flukes, etc. I wanted to dig in a little bit further, because blaming the defense didn't really match what I thought I saw in the playoffs over the last three years.

Here's what I found:

- In our last four playoff games, the Saints have scored below their season average. And in the three home games, they've massively underperformed. By an average of more than a touchdown. In home games, we average 10 points less in the playoffs than the regular season.

	home/road	Season scoring average home or road	Actual Scored	Difference
2019	Min	28.4	20	-8.4
2018	LAR	34.1	23	-11.1
2018	Phi	34.1	23	-11.1
2017	@Min	25.8	24	-1.8
			Average Difference	-8.1

Checking to make sure scoring isn't down across the board in the playoffs, and we find that this is not the case for the successful playoff teams. Of the four teams who played on championship weekend, all but one averaged more points in the playoffs than they did in the regular season, and the Titans were just barely below (a single point).

	Season Avg.	Playoff Avg.	Diff
2019 Chiefs	28.2	43	14.8
2019 49ers	29.9	32	2.1
2019 Titans	25.1	24	-1.1
2019 Packers	23.5	24	0.5

In that same span, our defense has averaged giving up 22 points in the regular season, and in the playoffs, they gave up, on average... wait for it... 22 points (shocked Pikachu face). Even in our losses, the defense has played right to its expectation (which is a slightly above average defense).

It's not the defense letting the team down in the playoffs. The defense is putting out the exact same type of performance in the playoffs as they did in the regular seasons. It's the offense that's massively under-performing in the playoffs - to the tune of 10 points per game less.


Bottom line: If the Saints offense had simply performed to its regular season performance in the playoffs, they would have made the Super Bowl last year, and at the very least played Green Bay in the second round this year.

Yeah, good work putting this together. I'll add this. All 3 playoff losses came down to the defense failing to making a stop with the game on the line. Same with the regular season loss to SF which in hindsight would've ended up making us the 1st seed.

Vs the Vikings this year, the dagger was the bomb to Thielen in OT. THAT play doesn't happen, our offense get's a crack at it. The actual TD was almost a given that deep in our redzone. But our defense holding and forcing a FG would've at least given us a chance. Remember, our offense completed the 4th quarter comeback. It's not uncommon for NFL games to be tight to the finish. Sometimes it takes a late scoring drive, sometimes it takes a defensive stop to win.

Vs the Vikings 2 years ago, our offense made that clutch 4th quarter come from behind score to take the lead with very little time left on the clock. Defense held for 3 downs then pooped the bed. Basically the same as happened this year, just in a way more spectacular and fluky fashion.

Vs the Rams last year, this really doesn't count. Our offense scored enough to win the game and then drove down the field on a drive designed to run out the clock. And it did what it was supposed to do. But for the no-call... well, we all know. Same with the no-call defensive holding on the CB trying to ankle tackle MT and the no-call when Fowler's "hitting the QB in the head and face" caused the interception that gifted LA the ball back in place to make the winning FG.

Yes, in all those situations, if our offense had scored more points we likely would've won and moved to the next round or the Superbowl. But in the end, in all 3 losses, our offense came through at the end and our defense didn't.

We can toss blame all we want at whoever we want... But it doesn't change anything.

We've devoted a TON of draft and FA capital towards making the defense better these past few years. And that was the right thing to do. Before that, our defense wasn't just weak, wasn't just a liability, it was historically bad. A bad joke. Now our defense is middle of the pack and improving. We used so much of our resources to improve our defense, that our offense (skill players / playmakers) has dwindled. We went from a GREAT OFFENSE with a TERRIBLE DEFENSE to an ABOVE AVERAGE OFFENSE with an ABOVE AVERAGE DEFENSE.

 

[Swimmer]

This is really disappointing. We need to beef up the offense this year. No excuses.

Great piece of work LC. Excellent use of stats to find the real problem. To me, it sure looked like the offense really struggled in many playoff games over the past few years. Thx for all the work. Brilliant!

rsmith2783 - and your question is spot-on. Many of us, who all love Brees. have been questioning if an offense led by him in the playoffs could get us another SB? Personally, I don't think QBs are like fine wines. QB's don't age real well after 40. We are dealing with a man, Drew Brees, who along with his coach Sean Payton, led the turnaround of an entire region after mass devastation and also the greatest 15 years of Saints history. Some of us are having fun with "Get Burrows," conversations. And he could be the answer. But so could Teddy and possibly Taysom. But none of us know for sure.

 

[Loose Cannon]

Yeah, good work putting this together. I'll add this. All 3 playoff losses came down to the defense failing to making a stop with the game on the line. Same with the regular season loss to SF which in hindsight would've ended up making us the 1st seed.

Vs the Vikings this year, the dagger was the bomb to Thielen in OT. THAT play doesn't happen, our offense get's a crack at it. The actual TD was almost a given that deep in our redzone. But our defense holding and forcing a FG would've at least given us a chance. Remember, our offense completed the 4th quarter comeback. It's not uncommon for NFL games to be tight to the finish. Sometimes it takes a late scoring drive, sometimes it takes a defensive stop to win.

Vs the Vikings 2 years ago, our offense made that clutch 4th quarter come from behind score to take the lead with very little time left on the clock. Defense held for 3 downs then pooped the bed. Basically the same as happened this year, just in a way more spectacular and fluky fashion.

Vs the Rams last year, this really doesn't count. Our offense scored enough to win the game and then drove down the field on a drive designed to run out the clock. And it did what it was supposed to do. But for the no-call... well, we all know. Same with the no-call defensive holding on the CB trying to ankle tackle MT and the no-call when Fowler's "hitting the QB in the head and face" caused the interception that gifted LA the ball back in place to make the winning FG.

Yes, in all those situations, if our offense had scored more points we likely would've won and moved to the next round or the Superbowl. But in the end, in all 3 losses, our offense came through at the end and our defense didn't.

We can toss blame all we want at whoever we want... But it doesn't change anything.

We've devoted a TON of draft and FA capital towards making the defense better these past few years. And that was the right thing to do. Before that, our defense wasn't just weak, wasn't just a liability, it was historically bad. A bad joke. Now our defense is middle of the pack and improving. We used so much of our resources to improve our defense, that our offense (skill players / playmakers) has dwindled. We went from a GREAT OFFENSE with a TERRIBLE DEFENSE to an ABOVE AVERAGE OFFENSE with an ABOVE AVERAGE DEFENSE.

Yeah, and that's all fine, and I don't disagree. But the bottom line is that one unit performed to it's standard, and one drastically underperformed.

Timing just isn't really material to the end result or the end performance. If you have a month to do a work project and you slack off for the first three weeks but bust your butt for the last week, and the final product is bad, your boss isn't going to say "well, he did what he needed to do for the last week". It was still a bad final product, and your performance was subpar. Same with our offense, and not with the defense.

The final scoreboard doesn't care when you scored your points or when the other team scored on you.

Or just simplified - if the offense did its job for four quarters:
- This year the Saints would have won by two scores in regulation.
- Last year the Rams would have had to score 10 points in the last minute, instead of 3.

I get what you're saying, and there's a lot of truth to it. The defense always seems to give up the last points, and doesn't seem to be clutch. But they wouldn't ever be required to be clutch if the offense did its job for four quarters instead of going dormant for an entire half and attempting to wake up in the 2nd half.

 

[dutar76]

Great piece of work LC. Excellent use of stats to find the real problem. To me, it sure looked like the offense really struggled in many playoff games over the past few years. Thx for all the work. Brilliant!

rsmith2783 - and your question is spot-on. Many of us, who all love Brees. have been questioning if an offense led by him in the playoffs could get us another SB? Personally, I don't think QBs are like fine wines. QB's don't age real well after 40. We are dealing with a man, Drew Brees, who along with his coach Sean Payton, led the turnaround of an entire region after mass devastation and also the greatest 15 years of Saints history. Some of us are having fun with "Get Burrows," conversations. And he could be the answer. But so could Teddy and possibly Taysom. But none of us know for sure.

Make a list of all the QBs in the league... starters, back-ups, and heck... even 2020 draftable QBs. Start with #1 being the QB that gives his team the best chance to win the superbowl next season. What # do you have Drew at? I'll bet you end up with him in the top 10.
Especially if you take the offensive "weapons" out of the equation.

For Example, #1 on my list would be Mahommes, AND he's got the weapons. But I'd still have him #1 on an even playing field where Hill, Kelce, Watkins, etc... aren't included in the thought process.

Mine:
#1 Mahommes
#2 Wilson
#3 Brees
#4 Jackson
#5 Rodgers
#6 Watson
#7 Dak
#8 ...

In other words, Brees is still near the top of the list. Give him another real weapon or two, and he'll eat defenses alive.
Problem is, if we lean that way... giving him more offensive weapons, it'll likely be at the cost of our defense which mitigates
the gain.

 

[Saintcd]

Nice work on the stats loose cannon.

Also, when the offense starts off slow, the defense is on the field longer in the beginning of the game. By the 4th quarter, they’re gassed. The defense also has to play “safer”, less stunts, blitz’s and further away from the receiver when lined up to stop the big play and eventually give up the big play. When the offense has multiple 3 and outs it’s killing the defense.

 

[dutar76]

Yeah, and that's all fine, and I don't disagree. But the bottom line is that one unit performed to it's standard, and one drastically underperformed.

Timing just isn't really material to the end result or the end performance. If you have a month to do a work project and you slack off for the first three weeks but bust your butt for the last week, and the final product is bad, your boss isn't going to say "well, he did what he needed to do for the last week". It was still a bad final product, and your performance was subpar. Same with our offense, and not with the defense.

The final scoreboard doesn't care when you scored your points or when the other team scored on you.

Or just simplified - if the offense did its job for four quarters:
- This year the Saints would have won by two scores in regulation.
- Last year the Rams would have had to score 10 points in the last minute, instead of 3.

I get what you're saying, and there's a lot of truth to it. The defense always seems to give up the last points, and doesn't seem to be clutch. But they wouldn't ever be required to be clutch if the offense did its job for four quarters instead of going dormant for an entire half and attempting to wake up in the 2nd half.

There's another way to look at this take as well. With the ebb and flow and often squirrelly nature of momentum changes... scoring more points in the fist 3 quarters effects how the other team is playing as well. So scoring another 17 points could (potentially) put the other team in more of a all-in, fast tempo offense. (which is where our defense seems to struggle the most under Dennis Allen). I don't find it all that far fetched that scoring more points could've very well caused our opponents to score more points.

A coach-ism that's as old as football says that your ultimate goal is to get to the 4th quarter in position to win the game... and then go out there and win it. Sure, double digit wins are nice and all, and they do happen, but in the NFL especially (much more often than college), close games are the norm. Often in close games, the team that has the ball last wins. We've seen it 1000 times. Another addage: Defense wins championships. To me, that doesn't mean the defense that goes out there and completely shuts down the opposing offense. I think it means that defenses often have to go out there and make the stop that ends the game.

 

[BreesusSaves]

The offensive line is 100% at fault for the poor performances. They're a soft line that has no fight in them. If you punch them in the mouth, they don't get back up.

Brees was getting earholed as soon as he hit the end of 3 step drops. If a QB is getting immediately pressured on a 3 step drop, it's going to be a long game.

2018 Demarcus Lawrence called out the entire Saints offensive line and said he was going to choke them out... and he did.

In the playoffs, defensive lines only get tougher, meaner, nastier. In the playoffs, every defensive line has the Demarcus Lawrence mentality. The Saints have no attitude on their offensive line. No one tough. No bullies. No one intimidating. They get pushed around and look like a joke. Positive and negative attitudes are contagious. Having that "dog mentality" is contagious.

Saints need to go get themselves a Carl Nicks on the line.

Otherwise it doesn't matter who is at QB or WR or RB.

It will just be another disappointing playoff performance by the offense and a loss.

 

[Saint Spud]

Good stuff.

My opinion is that Brees’ deficiencies are magnified in the playoffs. When the competition ramps up and defenses can shorten the field, since he can’t stretch them vertically (with his arm) or horizontally (with his legs), good teams with extra focused preparation can take away what he does well.

That’s why I think it’s time to move on. Not saying he’s solely to blame. But his numbers in these elimination games have not been good. It’s no longer an exception. It’s the trend.

 

[dutar76]

Good stuff.

My opinion is that Brees’ deficiencies are magnified in the playoffs. When the competition ramps up and defenses can shorten the field, since he can’t stretch them vertically (with his arm) or horizontally (with his legs), good teams with extra focused preparation can take away what he does well.

That’s why I think it’s time to move on. Not saying he’s solely to blame. But his numbers in these elimination games have not been good. It’s no longer an exception. It’s the trend.

Then why doesn't our defense ramp it up and shorten the field more in the playoffs?

Stats don't win games. Points do.

If you go to overtime and lose without your offense even getting on the field, is that your offense's fault for not winning the game in regulation? Doesn't the defense have something to do with the score at the end of regulation as well?

I think the debate on whether we should blame the offense or the defense for the playoff losses is really a wash. It's not Drew's fault, it's not Dennis Allen's fault, it's not Sean Payton's fault, it's not the offense, it's not the defense, it's not Lutz. If you really need to put your finger on it and lay blame, it's on all of them equally.

If DA schemed the defense better in certain situations.
If Drew makes a particular throw, or doesn't fumble in a sack, or is able to drop a 40 yarder on a dime like he used to.
If Sean Payton called better plays or ran the ball more.
If the OL would've blocked better.
If Alvin Kamara would break or slip a few more tackles.
If we had another receiving option.
If we wouldn't have been called for Offensive holding.
If our DBs would've covered better.
If our DL would've gotten more pressure on the QB.
If our LBs would've been healthy.
If Lutz would've made a FG.
If our defense wouldn't have gotten flagged for PI or hands to the face.
If we'd have had a bye week.
If we'd have won the coin toss.
If our offense would've converted more 3rd downs.
If our defense would've stopped them on 3rd or 4th down.
If the refs would've thrown the flag...

Pick your favorite, and argue til you're blue in the face. Whichever one you pick, you are 100% correct; Whichever one someone else picks? They're just as correct.

 

[Saint Spud]

Then why doesn't our defense ramp it up and shorten the field more in the playoffs?

Stats don't win games. Points do.

If you go to overtime and lose without your offense even getting on the field, is that your offense's fault for not winning the game in regulation? Doesn't the defense have something to do with the score at the end of regulation as well?

I think the debate on whether we should blame the offense or the defense for the playoff losses is really a wash. It's not Drew's fault, it's not Dennis Allen's fault, it's not Sean Payton's fault, it's not the offense, it's not the defense, it's not Lutz. If you really need to put your finger on it and lay blame, it's on all of them equally.

If DA schemed the defense better in certain situations.
If Drew makes a particular throw, or doesn't fumble in a sack, or is able to drop a 40 yarder on a dime like he used to.
If Sean Payton called better plays or ran the ball more.
If the OL would've blocked better.
If Alvin Kamara would break or slip a few more tackles.
If we had another receiving option.
If we wouldn't have been called for Offensive holding.
If our DBs would've covered better.
If our DL would've gotten more pressure on the QB.
If our LBs would've been healthy.
If Lutz would've made a FG.
If our defense wouldn't have gotten flagged for PI or hands to the face.
If we'd have had a bye week.
If we'd have won the coin toss.
If our offense would've converted more 3rd downs.
If our defense would've stopped them on 3rd or 4th down.
If the refs would've thrown the flag...

Pick your favorite, and argue til you're blue in the face. Whichever one you pick, you are 100% correct; Whichever one someone else picks? They're just as correct.

Did you read the OP? The defense has done its job.

 

[Super44]

Make a list of all the QBs in the league... starters, back-ups, and heck... even 2020 draftable QBs. Start with #1 being the QB that gives his team the best chance to win the superbowl next season. What # do you have Drew at? I'll bet you end up with him in the top 10.
Especially if you take the offensive "weapons" out of the equation.

For Example, #1 on my list would be Mahommes, AND he's got the weapons. But I'd still have him #1 on an even playing field where Hill, Kelce, Watkins, etc... aren't included in the thought process.

Mine:
#1 Mahommes
#2 Wilson
#3 Brees
#4 Jackson
#5 Rodgers
#6 Watson
#7 Dak
#8 ...

In other words, Brees is still near the top of the list. Give him another real weapon or two, and he'll eat defenses alive.
Problem is, if we lean that way... giving him more offensive weapons, it'll likely be at the cost of our defense which mitigates
the gain.

You forgot the obvious. Garoppolo.