It's the offense, stupid. (2 Viewers)

I've been ranting about it since the loss.

Sean Payton/Drew Brees are incapable of complementing a good defense properly. In those home games they want to pass the ball...that does not play into protecting a defense. In order for us to win the way Payton/Brees want to play we need an Average defense and a Great Offense. That average defense just needs to do SOMETHING really well and in the case of 2009 it was turning the ball over.

While you can argue the final plays of the losses have come down to the defense not being able to hold the lead..it actually comes down to the bread and butter of the team...the offense...not being able to stop them from being put in that position.

Our receiving corps since the shift in drafting philosophy has relied on hitting on day 2 skill guys like Thomas/Kamara while putting high draft capital on the oline/defense. While it has allowed us to hit on more defensive players the fact remains it takes a certain type of commitment to playing a certain type of ball that actually allows that defense to play to its strengths that for whatever reason when we are at home..we eschew in favor of 40+ attempts a game.

Only solution is to build the offense up so they can do that vs asking them to do something they've proven incapable of doing the last 3 seasons and that's running the ball consistently. That transition will also require us to know which pieces to walk away from on Defense and what needs to be added to boost it in areas like turnovers.
Good points, but does this mess with the post Drew goals? I just think we need to continue to build the lines to best deal with qb transition that will eventually occur.
 
There's a lot of talk about the defense being to blame, or just a horrible series of luck and flukes, etc. I wanted to dig in a little bit further, because blaming the defense didn't really match what I thought I saw in the playoffs over the last three years.

Here's what I found:

- In our last four playoff games, the Saints have scored below their season average. And in the three home games, they've massively underperformed. By an average of more than a touchdown. In home games, we average 10 points less in the playoffs than the regular season.

home/roadSeason scoring average home or roadActual ScoredDifference
2019Min28.420-8.4
2018LAR34.123-11.1
2018Phi34.123-11.1
2017@Min25.824-1.8
Average Difference-8.1
Checking to make sure scoring isn't down across the board in the playoffs, and we find that this is not the case for the successful playoff teams. Of the four teams who played on championship weekend, all but one averaged more points in the playoffs than they did in the regular season, and the Titans were just barely below (a single point).

Season Avg.Playoff Avg.Diff
2019 Chiefs28.24314.8
2019 49ers29.9322.1
2019 Titans25.124-1.1
2019 Packers23.5240.5

In that same span, our defense has averaged giving up 22 points in the regular season, and in the playoffs, they gave up, on average... wait for it... 22 points (shocked Pikachu face). Even in our losses, the defense has played right to its expectation (which is a slightly above average defense).

It's not the defense letting the team down in the playoffs. The defense is putting out the exact same type of performance in the playoffs as they did in the regular seasons. It's the offense that's massively under-performing in the playoffs - to the tune of 10 points per game less.


Bottom line: If the Saints offense had simply performed to its regular season performance in the playoffs, they would have made the Super Bowl last year, and at the very least played Green Bay in the second round this year.
Definitely true. Info like this would have not been well received on this board immediately after our early exit. Calling for the heads of DB's. SMH.
 
My only reservation about the original post is that it takes, perhaps inadvertently, attention away from how poorly our defense has played at critical end-of-the-game moments in the playoffs. But its principal thesis is correct, though not surprising.

In the playoffs, the teams played are the best teams, often with the best defenses, and team limitations are brutally exposed. In 2018, we played in the playoffs with an injured offensive line. In 2019, a principal weapon, Alvin Kamara played poorly, certainly in part because of injuries. In 2018 and 2019, our receivers as a group were below average. And we have reached the point where our quarterback's physical limitations are manifest--Drew has never liked to run, but now, regardless of how clear his path and how many yards might be needed for a first down, he seemingly refuses to run; and with some decline in arm strength, Drew can no longer make consistently every throw that we expect an NFL quarterback to make. And going forward, the real question is not how Drew has played, but how do we reasonably expect Drew, who will enter the 2020 season four months short of 42, to play. Historically, few quarterbacks are still playing at age 40. Brees and Brady by playing in 2019 have already beaten long odds by just playing.

In recent years, we have largely spent our draft picks and free agent dollars on defense, though one can argue that the defense, especially the secondary, has to some extent underperformed. I think we will see the offense addressed this year.
 
I love the kind of analysis LC did, where one has a hypothesis (or even a conclusion) and then picks out meaningful stats to test it and see where it takes you, and the numbers meet the eye test -- the offense has often underperformed in the playoffs, and that's particularly painful at home.

But we're so conditioned to depend on the offense since 2006, the D gets off the hook a little here.

I absolutely give it to them in the Philly playoff win -- after getting smoked on the first two drives, they pitched a shutout, picked up two takeaways and we were able to win with 20 points...although I also have to note that the Eagles were driving late in our territory and only a pass that bounced in the air likely saved us.

The other four games, three of them losses?
Avg PPG allowed​
Pts allowed in game​
Difference​
Takeaways/season​
Takeaway rank in NFL​
Takeaways in game​
Carolina (2017)
20.4​
26​
+6​
25​
T 9th-10th​
0​
Minnesota (2017)
20.4​
29​
+9​
25​
T 9th-10th​
1​
LA Rams (2018)
22.1​
26​
+4​
24​
13th​
1​
Minnesota (2019)
21.3​
26​
+5​
23​
T 10th-14th​
1​

In each case it's not just the underperformance on points and takeaways, it's that the defense could never put its stamp on the game, blowing leads of 13 (Rams) and seven (Vikings #2) points, and giving up Minnesota (#1) on what can only be described as a massive choke job, but we also forget that the Vikings scored twice in the final 1:30 of that game. Finally, in the Carolina game, the Panthers were driving in our territory in the final minutes before a big fourth down sack by Von Bell finally ended it.

Yes, the offense underperformed, but eventually got its **** together and put us in a very good position to win, without much help from the defense, as it turns out. In addition to the sad lack of takeaways, the defense gave up tons of yards and points and couldn't get off the field on 3rd down, putting even more of a burden than usual on the offense:

Opp time of poss​
Saints time of poss​
NO avg FD allowd/gm​
Opp FD​
Saints FD​
Opp 3 down conv.​
Carolina (2017)
34​
26​
19.3​
24​
21​
8-17​
Minnesota (2017)
33​
27​
19.3​
24​
23​
10-17​
LA Rams (2018)
33​
31​
20.8​
19​
19​
6-16​
Minnesota (2019)
36​
27​
19.4​
22​
19​
10-18​

Forget performance against expectations -- that 3rd down conversion ratio of 34 out of 58 in those four games is just flat out terrible. At 58.6%, that's 10 percentage points or so worse than the worst team in any one season 2017-2019, which was 48.9%, by some or other terrible defense. The defense could neither get off the field quickly nor take the ball away. Some of time of possession you can blame on the offense either scoring too quickly or going three-and-out too often, but these raw numbers of first downs allowed, lack of takeaways, and 3rd down conversions -- it's hard to blame it all on the offense.

Is it asking too much for once for our defense to step up and be at least half the driving force in blowing out a playoff opponent? Or coming up with a big turnover, or even just more than one the whole game? Or a defensive score (scoop and score, pick-six) to swing the momentum?

Or, once the offense has finally put us in the lead (or at least tied it) late, not to turn around and blow the game in the final drive (or final TWO drives, as it turned out in both Minnesota #1 and the NFCCG)?

I love the OP's work, and I may in fact be stupid, but when the defense is giving up 27 points per game in these games, it's not just the offense. That's like kicking your A student's *** for bringing home a B while patting your B- student on the head for bringing home a C.
 
Good points, but does this mess with the post Drew goals? I just think we need to continue to build the lines to best deal with qb transition that will eventually occur.

1 year at a time. If the goal is to win a SB I'm focused on this year and extending the window for one more go and I'll worry about next year...next year.
 
I love the kind of analysis LC did, where one has a hypothesis (or even a conclusion) and then picks out meaningful stats to test it and see where it takes you, and the numbers meet the eye test -- the offense has often underperformed in the playoffs, and that's particularly painful at home.

But we're so conditioned to depend on the offense since 2006, the D gets off the hook a little here.

I absolutely give it to them in the Philly playoff win -- after getting smoked on the first two drives, they pitched a shutout, picked up two takeaways and we were able to win with 20 points...although I also have to note that the Eagles were driving late in our territory and only a pass that bounced in the air likely saved us.

The other four games, three of them losses?
Avg PPG allowed​
Pts allowed in game​
Difference​
Takeaways/season​
Takeaway rank in NFL​
Takeaways in game​
Carolina (2017)
20.4​
26​
+6​
25​
T 9th-10th​
0​
Minnesota (2017)
20.4​
29​
+9​
25​
T 9th-10th​
1​
LA Rams (2018)
22.1​
26​
+4​
24​
13th​
1​
Minnesota (2019)
21.3​
26​
+5​
23​
T 10th-14th​
1​

In each case it's not just the underperformance on points and takeaways, it's that the defense could never put its stamp on the game, blowing leads of 13 (Rams) and seven (Vikings #2) points, and giving up Minnesota (#1) on what can only be described as a massive choke job, but we also forget that the Vikings scored twice in the final 1:30 of that game. Finally, in the Carolina game, the Panthers were driving in our territory in the final minutes before a big fourth down sack by Von Bell finally ended it.

Yes, the offense underperformed, but eventually got its **** together and put us in a very good position to win, without much help from the defense, as it turns out. In addition to the sad lack of takeaways, the defense gave up tons of yards and points and couldn't get off the field on 3rd down, putting even more of a burden than usual on the offense:

Opp time of poss​
Saints time of poss​
NO avg FD allowd/gm​
Opp FD​
Saints FD​
Opp 3 down conv.​
Carolina (2017)
34​
26​
19.3​
24​
21​
8-17​
Minnesota (2017)
33​
27​
19.3​
24​
23​
10-17​
LA Rams (2018)
33​
31​
20.8​
19​
19​
6-16​
Minnesota (2019)
36​
27​
19.4​
22​
19​
10-18​

Forget performance against expectations -- that 3rd down conversion ratio of 34 out of 58 in those four games is just flat out terrible. At 58.6%, that's 10 percentage points or so worse than the worst team in any one season 2017-2019, which was 48.9%, by some or other terrible defense. The defense could neither get off the field quickly nor take the ball away. Some of time of possession you can blame on the offense either scoring too quickly or going three-and-out too often, but these raw numbers of first downs allowed, lack of takeaways, and 3rd down conversions -- it's hard to blame it all on the offense.

Is it asking too much for once for our defense to step up and be at least half the driving force in blowing out a playoff opponent? Or coming up with a big turnover, or even just more than one the whole game? Or a defensive score (scoop and score, pick-six) to swing the momentum?

Or, once the offense has finally put us in the lead (or at least tied it) late, not to turn around and blow the game in the final drive (or final TWO drives, as it turned out in both Minnesota #1 and the NFCCG)?

I love the OP's work, and I may in fact be stupid, but when the defense is giving up 27 points per game in these games, it's not just the offense. That's like kicking your A student's *** for bringing home a B while patting your B- student on the head for bringing home a C.

LC factored in home vs road averages, which I think is important here.

Curious why you didn’t do the same?
 
I love the kind of analysis LC did, where one has a hypothesis (or even a conclusion) and then picks out meaningful stats to test it and see where it takes you, and the numbers meet the eye test -- the offense has often underperformed in the playoffs, and that's particularly painful at home.

But we're so conditioned to depend on the offense since 2006, the D gets off the hook a little here.

I absolutely give it to them in the Philly playoff win -- after getting smoked on the first two drives, they pitched a shutout, picked up two takeaways and we were able to win with 20 points...although I also have to note that the Eagles were driving late in our territory and only a pass that bounced in the air likely saved us.

The other four games, three of them losses?
Avg PPG allowed​
Pts allowed in game​
Difference​
Takeaways/season​
Takeaway rank in NFL​
Takeaways in game​
Carolina (2017)
20.4​
26​
+6​
25​
T 9th-10th​
0​
Minnesota (2017)
20.4​
29​
+9​
25​
T 9th-10th​
1​
LA Rams (2018)
22.1​
26​
+4​
24​
13th​
1​
Minnesota (2019)
21.3​
26​
+5​
23​
T 10th-14th​
1​
In each case it's not just the underperformance on points and takeaways, it's that the defense could never put its stamp on the game, blowing leads of 13 (Rams) and seven (Vikings #2) points, and giving up Minnesota (#1) on what can only be described as a massive choke job, but we also forget that the Vikings scored twice in the final 1:30 of that game. Finally, in the Carolina game, the Panthers were driving in our territory in the final minutes before a big fourth down sack by Von Bell finally ended it.





Yes, the offense underperformed, but eventually got its **** together and put us in a very good position to win, without much help from the defense, as it turns out. In addition to the sad lack of takeaways, the defense gave up tons of yards and points and couldn't get off the field on 3rd down, putting even more of a burden than usual on the offense:

Opp time of poss​
Saints time of poss​
NO avg FD allowd/gm​
Opp FD​
Saints FD​
Opp 3 down conv.​
Carolina (2017)
34​
26​
19.3​
24​
21​
8-17​
Minnesota (2017)
33​
27​
19.3​
24​
23​
10-17​
LA Rams (2018)
33​
31​
20.8​
19​
19​
6-16​
Minnesota (2019)
36​
27​
19.4​
22​
19​
10-18​
Forget performance against expectations -- that 3rd down conversion ratio of 34 out of 58 in those four games is just flat out terrible. At 58.6%, that's 10 percentage points or so worse than the worst team in any one season 2017-2019, which was 48.9%, by some or other terrible defense. The defense could neither get off the field quickly nor take the ball away. Some of time of possession you can blame on the offense either scoring too quickly or going three-and-out too often, but these raw numbers of first downs allowed, lack of takeaways, and 3rd down conversions -- it's hard to blame it all on the offense.





Is it asking too much for once for our defense to step up and be at least half the driving force in blowing out a playoff opponent? Or coming up with a big turnover, or even just more than one the whole game? Or a defensive score (scoop and score, pick-six) to swing the momentum?

Or, once the offense has finally put us in the lead (or at least tied it) late, not to turn around and blow the game in the final drive (or final TWO drives, as it turned out in both Minnesota #1 and the NFCCG)?

I love the OP's work, and I may in fact be stupid, but when the defense is giving up 27 points per game in these games, it's not just the offense.

Lots of great points here, particularly on the 3rd down conversions. I'm actually trying to get work done so I'll circle back to some of this in more depth later, but a few things:

- I would argue that the Saints defense has two marquee performances in the last three years of playoffs - the Eagles game where we held them to 250 total yards and made Foles look like a scrub. And the Rams game last year, which was not a win, but in which we held them to 13 points less than their season scoring average, 3.0 YPC (vs. 4.9 regular season), and Goff ended up with a qb rating 20 points below his season average. They just didn't win - which will usually happen if your offense scores 12 less points than what they usually do.

- You're incorporating overtime into the averages, which should be left out when comparing to baseline numbers. Rams should be 23 points and Minnesota this year should be 20.

- I started to look at takeaways and got distracted. I had gotten to us averaging 1.5/game in regular season to 1.0 in the postseason. But got distracted with paying analytics work and had to stop before diving deeper. So yeah, they're not turning the other team over quite as much, which is a good pull by you.

That's like kicking your A student's *** for bringing home a B while patting your B- student on the head for bringing home a C.

Well, the 23ish points per game our offense puts up in the playoffs would be below average in the regular season (about on par with the Lions this year) so it's more like the A student bringing home a C-.

And I don't think it's patting the B- student on the head. It's more shrugging your shoulders because the B- student made a B-. They did what you expected them to.
 
Last edited:
Stats are misleading...here's why...

Those teams against the Saints offense scored at will just about and padded up their stats...are not in the playoffs! They aren't good enough to make it to postseason!

Those teams who made it to postseason are all good teams....they are good primarily b/c their D is good in stopping offenses, so when the Saints offense is facing them, they manage to stop the Saints offense. We have seen this play out every year....no wonder the Saints offensive output reflects exactly that difference between non playoff teams vs playoff caliber teams....their production declines correspondingly against better teams.

And with the D we see the exact results....they play just as bad against bad teams as they play against good teams....and that also is reflected in the stats. The only difference is that the mistakes are magnified against a playoff team much more that against a lesser non-playoff team. And those mistakes are costly in the playoffs against good teams compared against bad teams in regular season. In the playoffs the margin of error is much tighter than in the regular season, and the Saints offense has a hard time turning things around against good teams than against a lesser non-playoff teams
 
Also, @SaintJ - imagine that you spent a significant amount more on tutoring for the A student than you did the B- student. Does that change your expectations? Because the Saints spent $90 million on the offense and $55 million on the defense last year.

When you spend almost double on the offense vs. the defense, shouldn't you be able to not have to make excuses for the offense in losses, when the defense did about what you expect them to?
 
Stats are misleading...here's why...

Those teams against the Saints offense scored at will just about and padded up their stats...are not in the playoffs! They aren't good enough to make it to postseason!

Those teams who made it to postseason are all good teams....they are good primarily b/c their D is good in stopping offenses, so when the Saints offense is facing them, they manage to stop the Saints offense. We have seen this play out every year....no wonder the Saints offensive output reflects exactly that difference between non playoff teams vs playoff caliber teams....their production declines correspondingly against better teams.

And with the D we see the exact results....they play just as bad against bad teams as they play against good teams....and that also is reflected in the stats. The only difference is that the mistakes are magnified against a playoff team much more that against a lesser non-playoff team. And those mistakes are costly in the playoffs against good teams compared against bad teams in regular season. In the playoffs the margin of error is much tighter than in the regular season, and the Saints offense has a hard time turning things around against good teams than against a lesser non-playoff teams

That's a lot of words to say something that was already addressed in my first post. The four teams in the conference championship had no issue scoring in the playoffs. They scored more than their season average.

Also:

2019 NFL average points per game (regular season): 22.3
2019 NFL average points per game (post season): 23.6

So your theory is incorrect. Teams score more in the playoffs than they do in the regular season. Most teams anyway.
 
That's a lot of words to say something that was already addressed in my first post. The four teams in the conference championship had no issue scoring in the playoffs. They scored more than their season average.

Also:

2019 NFL average points per game (regular season): 22.3
2019 NFL average points per game (post season): 23.6

So your theory is incorrect. Teams score more in the playoffs than they do in the regular season. Most teams anyway.

But we're talking about the Saints here, not about every team in the playoffs...the Saints offense scores less in the playoffs compared to the regular season, that is the issue.....question is why?

blaming the offense is only part of the problem. The Saints offense scores less against good teams in the playoff compared against bad teams in the regular season. And this is no surprise The better teams are in postseason, not the bottom dweller teams, so scoring less against good teams is normal.

The D on the other hand had all kind of problems in the regular season against most of the teams....be that good or bad teams...their 3rd down efficiency was terrible! And that was in the regular season, and we knew that That's why we demanded 150% from Drew Brees every game! he had to preform at 150% b/c we knew the D is hot garbage on the most important down for the opponents....the bread and butter down in every series....the 3rd down! So when Drew Brees performed well in that range we knew the Saints will win the game.....but if his performance declined just a little bit.....the disparaging talks begun at one....like for example...he's washed up, he can't throw deep ect ect....lots of times it was just embarrassing reading all the garbage coming from fans...

I really don't blame the Saints offense as many others do. The Saints D is even more to blame than the Saints O .....like for example....if Drew Brees turned the ball over....that resulted in points scored against the Saints D.....and it matterd very little if it was 3rd & 3 or 3rd & 13....the result was the same....why couldn't the D make stops on 3rd downs especially towards the end of the game?....I guess we'll never know!
 
As much as I hate what you just said sadly if we have another exit from the playoffs without getting to the Super Bowl at minimum I think This is Brees and Payton legacy
2006-vs Bears “Beat down”
2010- Vs Seattle 7-9 Created” Beastmode”
2011-vs 49er Heatbreaker “Can’t Guard Davis”
2013- vs Seattle”Was a Beatdown”Garbage pts
2013–vs Vikings Minnesota Miracle
2018-vs Rams -“No Call”
2019- vs Vikings “No Call and Awarded TD”
2020- ????

Manhandled by the Legion of Boom twice
Beat twice by under achieving Vikings squads Even though with help
Demolished in Chicago

Reguardless at some point when you look at this our someone has to be held accountable and the common factor is Payton, Carmichael and Brees . Not saying they need to be replaced at all but Payton has to start doing something differently in the playoffs
I know Deuce was creamy in the knees late season 2006 after that exceptional Philly game he carried on his back but the NFCCG was also sort of a foreshadowing.

Sloppy wet cold slow field for passing against a stout pressuring D and we again and again dropped back to pass 5-7 step drops....
 
Did you read the OP? The defense has done its job.
The offense handed them the lead vs the Vikings 2 years ago. Make one stop with time running out and we advance.
They didn't.

The offense handed them the lead vs the Rams last January with very little time on the clock. Get a stop and we're in the Superbowl.
They didn't.

The offense caught the Vikings in the 4th quarter 2 weeks ago to tie it up and send the game into overtime. Lost the coin toss, so it was on the defense to get a stop and give our offense a drive to win it to send us to the NFCCG.
They didn't.

This year vs SF... Drew and the offense Drove down the field and scored the go ahead points with very little time on the clock. Win and we'd have ended up being the #1 seed.
They didn't.

My argument in all of this is that it's not the offense, it's not the defense, it's not Drew, it's not the coaches... The losses are on the team.
 

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