dutar76
7th year itch
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lol... no I didn'tYou forgot the obvious. Garoppolo.
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lol... no I didn'tYou forgot the obvious. Garoppolo.
There's a lot of talk about the defense being to blame, or just a horrible series of luck and flukes, etc. I wanted to dig in a little bit further, because blaming the defense didn't really match what I thought I saw in the playoffs over the last three years.
Here's what I found:
- In our last four playoff games, the Saints have scored below their season average. And in the three home games, they've massively underperformed. By an average of more than a touchdown. In home games, we average 10 points less in the playoffs than the regular season.
Checking to make sure scoring isn't down across the board in the playoffs, and we find that this is not the case for the successful playoff teams. Of the four teams who played on championship weekend, all but one averaged more points in the playoffs than they did in the regular season, and the Titans were just barely below (a single point).
home/road Season scoring average home or road Actual Scored Difference 2019 Min 28.4 20 -8.4 2018 LAR 34.1 23 -11.1 2018 Phi 34.1 23 -11.1 2017 @Min 25.8 24 -1.8 Average Difference -8.1
Season Avg. Playoff Avg. Diff 2019 Chiefs 28.2 43 14.8 2019 49ers 29.9 32 2.1 2019 Titans 25.1 24 -1.1 2019 Packers 23.5 24 0.5
In that same span, our defense has averaged giving up 22 points in the regular season, and in the playoffs, they gave up, on average... wait for it... 22 points (shocked Pikachu face). Even in our losses, the defense has played right to its expectation (which is a slightly above average defense).
It's not the defense letting the team down in the playoffs. The defense is putting out the exact same type of performance in the playoffs as they did in the regular seasons. It's the offense that's massively under-performing in the playoffs - to the tune of 10 points per game less.
Bottom line: If the Saints offense had simply performed to its regular season performance in the playoffs, they would have made the Super Bowl last year, and at the very least played Green Bay in the second round this year.
I just can't buy that with a 41 year old qb. At certain point you have to evaluate the big picture 3-5 years, and that doesn't include him. It's not knock, just the reality.1 year at a time. If the goal is to win a SB I'm focused on this year and extending the window for one more go and I'll worry about next year...next year.
LC factored in home vs road averages, which I think is important here.
Curious why you didn’t do the same?
1 year at a time. If the goal is to win a SB I'm focused on this year and extending the window for one more go and I'll worry about next year...next year.
But we're talking about the Saints here, not about every team in the playoffs...the Saints offense scores less in the playoffs compared to the regular season, that is the issue.....question is why?
blaming the offense is only part of the problem. The Saints offense scores less against good teams in the playoff compared against bad teams in the regular season. And this is no surprise The better teams are in postseason, not the bottom dweller teams, so scoring less against good teams is normal.
The D on the other hand had all kind of problems in the regular season against most of the teams....be that good or bad teams...their 3rd down efficiency was terrible! And that was in the regular season, and we knew that That's why we demanded 150% from Drew Brees every game! he had to preform at 150% b/c we knew the D is hot garbage on the most important down for the opponents....the bread and butter down in every series....the 3rd down! So when Drew Brees performed well in that range we knew the Saints will win the game.....but if his performance declined just a little bit.....the disparaging talks begun at one....like for example...he's washed up, he can't throw deep ect ect....lots of times it was just embarrassing reading all the garbage coming from fans...
I really don't blame the Saints offense as many others do. The Saints D is even more to blame than the Saints O .....like for example....if Drew Brees turned the ball over....that resulted in points scored against the Saints D.....and it matterd very little if it was 3rd & 3 or 3rd & 13....the result was the same....why couldn't the D make stops on 3rd downs especially towards the end of the game?....I guess we'll never know!
Exactly, why do we have to be on pins and needles every game coming down to the wire. This has been in the regular season games as well.
I don’t think it’s as simply as add another WR either even tho I do think we need someone opposite MT to rely on in critical situations and prolong MT’s health and career. I think more over tho, Payton’s schemes need to be upgraded. Those screen pass plays are getting tiresome and people have caught on. He needs to revise some of his coaching and game plans.
Also, @SaintJ - imagine that you spent a significant amount more on tutoring for the A student than you did the B- student. Does that change your expectations? Because the Saints spent $90 million on the offense and $55 million on the defense last year.
When you spend almost double on the offense vs. the defense, shouldn't you be able to not have to make excuses for the offense in losses, when the defense did about what you expect them to?
We do need receiver, but we also need more offensive lineman. I get frustrated watching opposing quarterback have forever and and a day to find a open crossing receiver when Drew is under pressure after 3 seconds. How many times have we set up a screen only have 1 defender run through 3 lineman and tackle Kamara behind the line of scrimiage? isn't that whole point of the screen to block for the running back? None of the receives get separation, none of them are out running anyone down field. I can only remember 1 the whole season long and that was our third string QB to our KR.
Our formations tend to give away our plays too, and the better teams have figured that out. Its no coincidence that the Rams, Vikings and Falcons seem to always have our number and shut our offense down. We need to do what the 49ers have done this season, where they run and pass out if different formations to keep the defense off balance. the Saints are two predicable, all you have to do is cover Thomas, spy Kamara, and pass rush Brees. We can learn a lot from Kyle Shannahan's offense.
I see what you are saying, but how confident are you (scale of 1-10) that Drew Brees will be better than Teddy Bridgewater next season. Brees will be 41 years old. It's not inconceivable (heck, I'd say it's statistically probable) that Brees won't be as good in 2020 compared to his 2019 play. With Bridgewater, you know the floor and its a floor that can get you into the playoffs. I don't believe we know Brees's floor for 2020. I'm pretty sure that we know his ceiling, and it still wasn't good enough to get us out of the wild card game in 2019.
Dennis Allen made Kirk Cousins into a hero.
For just 1 time in his entire career.
And most likely the last time.
We gave up 20 points in regulation. 7 as a direct result of a momentum-swinging, unnecessary INT by Brees at the end of the first half.
The defense wasn’t perfect. But it wasn’t the problem.