Jameis after 5 weeks (by the numbers) (1 Viewer)

Stalwart385

VIP Contributor
Joined
Aug 27, 2018
Messages
3,448
Reaction score
6,594
Location
Baton Rouge
Online
After 6 5 weeks I think it's fair to look at the stats Jameis is putting up. Of course, in line with the conversations, it's a mixed bag. Overall ok to good but some things that make you look sideways and some jaw-dropping numbers.

For starters, this is what he really has to hang his hat on. A high rate of TD to pass attempts.

10.3 TD% (1st) - That is astronomically high. That would be a record the best I can tell. Obviously, it is the best in the league and by over 2%. That is a historic number.

That tells you he is being very efficient in the RedZone (plus connecting on some deep shots). Between the 20s his attempts are staying low though. We primarily rely on our run game to get there and he has delivered when it's his time.

Next is the opposing stat:

2.6 INT% (23rd) - That's not great, I don't like to see Jameis in the bottom 10 there again. It may be part of why Payton has limited his attempt until he's on the other side of the field. It's not horrible though. He's closer to the middle of the pack statistically than an outlier problem. It's the second-best rate of his career.

Along with his fumble yesterday, and some questionable throws we've seen, I'd say he's still within the range of his turnover-prone career but they have done a good job limiting it to the better side of it.

Next is one that concerns me the most and makes me question his future. I predicted this to be much higher in this offense.

60.3% Cmpl (29th) - He has to improve here. That means getting the ball in our playmaker's hands more often. Quicker decisions. More accuracy. It's the lifeblood of a west coast offense. I accept we will have more low percentage throws with more deep shots but I want to see this more as a career-high for Jameis. Closer to 65% than 60%.

The next one may be a bit controversial but I lean toward the rule of thumb a QB is responsible for 50% of his sacks. I see it as an important QB stat that can signify a good comfortable QB.

7.2 Sk% (24th) - This stat always comes with caveats (Jameis certainly has them at the moment with 3 linemen down). He can help this get better though. That means quicker decisions and hopefully helping that cmpl% along the way.

Next, I'll jump to a weird one. I always like to look at yards as a "volume" measure. If you do something a lot, teams tend to focus on stopping you from doing it more. The result is just too weird for me so I'll include yards per attempt as well.

178.4 Y/G (29th) | 7.7 Y/A (13th) - I honestly don't have a ton to say about this one. It certainly throws my Jameis prediction pre-season in the dumpster. Really low usage, but pretty decent efficiency. I have nothing to complain about and nothing to really celebrate. Just hard to wrap my brain around.

Moving on, finally, an "overall" measure. It's not perfect but it works within what it measures.

108.1 Rating (6th) - If you scroll down and look at the numbers this weights (TD%, INT%, Cmpl%, Y/A), you might wonder how is this that high. That shows you just how out of this world his TD% is right now. I think that's a lot of credit to Payton along with Jameis. Using the right tool at the right time. It's seriously impressive.

This may be the most controversial thing I post. I like to include an overall "film" grade with this as well. So I'll just tack it on here to try and balance out all these pure counting numbers.

71.8 PFF Grade (24th) - I won't say much about a PFF grade. I think most know what it is by this point. Trust it, don't, love it, hate it. That's what it is for now.



So my overall impression watching the games, the progression through the season, looking at the numbers, etc?

Jameis is ok, maybe even good, at times still a rollercoaster but the offense tends to reign it in. He's excellent in the redzone but has to get better between the 20s to win the tough games when the run game can't carry us. He's certainly not getting benched any time soon but he still has to progress a lot to see him as the future.

He should be getting some serious help soon. I think these next 3-5 weeks after the bye determines his future with the team. If we come out the same, I'm going to be disappointed. I'm expecting more from the passing game though. I think we'll certainly need it. I'll stay cautiously optimistic for now. I feel pretty good if the defense can keep playing the way they have.
 
Last edited:

jasonsw

VIP Subscribing Member
VIP Contributor
Joined
Jul 2, 2019
Messages
5,861
Reaction score
13,612
Age
41
Location
Bastrop
Offline
3 INT is pretty good. 2 came from Winston trying to get N.O back in game against Carolina and the other came with Peat accidentally stepping on Winstons foot.

Winston's INT numbers are a big improvement from his Tampa days. So far Carolina game is the only bad one.

Winston will throw more INTs than Brees. But Jameis can balance that out with some quick strike drives
 
Last edited:

Saint Spud

Hall-of-Famer
Joined
Mar 6, 2002
Messages
10,919
Reaction score
25,245
Age
42
Offline
After 6 weeks I think it's fair to look at the stats Jameis is putting up. Of course, in line with the conversations, it's a mixed bag. Overall ok to good but some things that make you look sideways and some jaw-dropping numbers.

For starters, this is what he really has to hang his hat on. A high rate of TD to pass attempts.

10.3 TD% (1st) - That is astronomically high. That would be a record the best I can tell. Obviously, it is the best in the league and by over 2%. That is a historic number.

That tells you he is being very efficient in the RedZone (plus connecting on some deep shots). Between the 20s his attempts are staying low though. We primarily rely on our run game to get there and he has delivered when it's his time.

Next is the opposing stat:

2.6 INT% (23rd) - That's not great, I don't like to see Jameis in the bottom 10 there again. It may be part of why Payton has limited his attempt until he's on the other side of the field. It's not horrible though. He's closer to the middle of the pack statistically than an outlier problem. It's the second-best rate of his career.

Along with his fumble yesterday, and some questionable throws we've seen, I'd say he's still within the range of his turnover-prone career but they have done a good job limiting it to the better side of it.

Next is one that concerns me the most and makes me question his future. I predicted this to be much higher in this offense.

60.3% Cmpl (29th) - He has to improve here. That means getting the ball in our playmaker's hands more often. Quicker decisions. More accuracy. It's the lifeblood of a west coast offense. I accept we will have more low percentage throws with more deep shots but I want to see this more as a career-high for Jameis. Closer to 65% than 60%.

The next one may be a bit controversial but I lean toward the rule of thumb a QB is responsible for 50% of his sacks. I see it as an important QB stat that can signify a good comfortable QB.

7.2 Sk% (24th) - This stat always comes with caveats (Jameis certainly has them at the moment with 3 linemen down). He can help this get better though. That means quicker decisions and hopefully helping that cmpl% along the way.

Next, I'll jump to a weird one. I always like to look at yards as a "volume" measure. If you do something a lot, teams tend to focus on stopping you from doing it more. The result is just too weird for me so I'll include yards per attempt as well.

178.4 Y/G (29th) | 7.7 Y/A (13th) - I honestly don't have a ton to say about this one. It certainly throws my Jameis prediction pre-season in the dumpster. Really low usage, but pretty decent efficiency. I have nothing to complain about and nothing to really celebrate. Just hard to wrap my brain around.

Moving on, finally, an "overall" measure. It's not perfect but it works within what it measures.

108.1 Rating (6th) - If you scroll down and look at the numbers this weights (TD%, INT%, Cmpl%, Y/A), you might wonder how is this that high. That shows you just how out of this world his TD% is right now. I think that's a lot of credit to Payton along with Jameis. Using the right tool at the right time. It's seriously impressive.

This may be the most controversial thing I post. I like to include an overall "film" grade with this as well. So I'll just tack it on here to try and balance out all these pure counting numbers.

71.8 PFF Grade (24th) - I won't say much about a PFF grade. I think most know what it is by this point. Trust it, don't, love it, hate it. That's what it is for now.



So my overall impression watching the games, the progression through the season, looking at the numbers, etc?

Jameis is ok, maybe even good, at times still a rollercoaster but the offense tends to reign it in. He's excellent in the redzone but has to get better between the 20s to win the tough games when the run game can't carry us. He's certainly not getting benched any time soon but he still has to progress a lot to see him as the future.

He should be getting some serious help soon. I think these next 3-5 weeks after the bye determines his future with the team. If we come out the same, I'm going to be disappointed. I'm expecting more from the passing game though. I think we'll certainly need it. I'll stay cautiously optimistic for now. I feel pretty good if the defense can keep playing the way they have.
You and I went back and forth a lot on the Jameis stuff in preseason, but I think you’re spot on here. Very fair evaluation.

The next five games will tell us a lot.
 

Thunderchild

Formerly Mightymite
Joined
Nov 13, 2017
Messages
2,328
Reaction score
4,193
Offline
Jameis is ok, maybe even good, at times a rollercoaster but the offense tends to reign it in. He's excellent in the redzone but has to get better between the 20s to win the tough games when the run game can't carry us. He's certainly not getting benched any time soon but he still has to progress a lot to see him as the future.

He should be getting some serious help soon. I think these next 3-5 weeks after the bye determines his future with the team. If we come out the same, I'm going to be disappointed. I'm expecting more from the passing game though. I think we'll certainly need it. I'll stay cautiously optimistic for now. I feel pretty good if the defense can keep playing the way they have.
Getting AK41 more involved in the passing game (the beginnings of which we saw this week) will help all his numbers tremendously. He evidently recognizes this need as he indicated that they were going to be working on this during the bye.

We shouldn't underestimate what that will mean to our offense. Could be huge when teams have to defend the screen, curls, and outs to AK41. It will open up other aspects of the offense.
 

whosyadaddy

Bleed Black & Gold
Joined
Feb 18, 2004
Messages
4,059
Reaction score
3,881
Age
48
Online
Good job. Fair honest take on his performance , and you did it without any bashing which is never needed.

You alluded to the fact he is going to be getting some major help soon which is key in evaluating his performance going forward. My opinion right now is it would be more fair to compare his numbers after he plays a couple games with his top weapons at receiver and his better protectors on the line back as well. We have a sample size but its a small sample size without him playing one game with his top talent and a makeshift line. Gonna be a year long evaluation with all the roster craziness its hard to get a solid reading right now
 

SuperSaint

Trek expert & WoW junkie
Joined
Jul 22, 2000
Messages
7,725
Reaction score
3,949
Location
Farmerville, La.
Offline
The only number here that is concerning is the completion % and I think that will go up once we get MT and Trequan back in the lineup, also wish they would trade for Andy Isabella from Arizona...
 

MV2

Pro-Bowler
Joined
Oct 11, 2008
Messages
3,538
Reaction score
7,156
Age
44
Offline
We are in a different position than recent years. We don't have to dink and dunk. No offense to Drew, but if he had committed 2 turnovers like Jameis did yesterday it would have taken a long drive to get 7 points after it. With Jameis it took one throw to Harris for 72 yards.

So he can have a bad moment but he also has the ability to erase that negative with one pass. I'm personally enjoying this roller coaster of a ride. There's so much uncertainty but I remember this is what being a fan is like when you don't have a HOF QB in your building. We are just riding a wave we haven't been on in over a decade.
 

MV2

Pro-Bowler
Joined
Oct 11, 2008
Messages
3,538
Reaction score
7,156
Age
44
Offline
The only number here that is concerning is the completion % and I think that will go up once we get MT and Trequan back in the lineup, also wish they would trade for Andy Isabella from Arizona...
That does need to pick up a little, but he also had some drops that affected his %.
 

CajunSaint08

Pro-Bowler
Joined
Aug 15, 2005
Messages
1,810
Reaction score
1,904
Age
56
Offline
Winston has one of the prettiest deep passes in the game. His accuracy on the deep throws is scary. I know Karmara is probably kicking himself in the butt for missing the deep sideline pass. It hit him right in the hands. Anyone can throw a deep ball. BUT to be as accurate as Jamies is is pretty dang amazing. So many deep passes are either over thrown or the receiver is having to wait on the ball, which allows the defenders to catch up. But Winston hits the receivers in stride.

Always thought Jeff Blake had the best deep pass in the league until now.
 

BreesusSaves

MAAAARK INGRAM
Joined
Sep 15, 2009
Messages
6,188
Reaction score
13,579
Location
Louisiana
Offline
Another thing to look at...

Winston's 12:3 TD:INT rate has him on pace to throw 40 touchdowns to 10 interceptions for the season. Will he keep this pace? I doubt it. It is unreasonable to expect the extremely majority of QBs to hold a pace like that... still... it shows that so far he has dramatically improved at protecting the football and being productive with it.
 

COACHTDL

Squad Leader
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
392
Reaction score
448
Location
LAFAYETTE
Offline
Face it. The o-line has not been at full strength since the 1st drive of game 1. We have not had experienced WR group. Getting oline and WRs back after the bye, we will finally get a chance to see what this offense really will be. If MT is healthy, that will open options in a big way. T. Smith is not the kind of guy that gets open quick, but Winston will be able to utilize his long speed with his complete offensive line. Kamara is going to get better touches with more space.

I just think our post bye week offense will look a bit different than the first 5 weeks. Better and more consistent. Then in week 8 the defense gets better with David Onyemata coming back. Pressure up the middle will lead to more sacks and disruption.

By week 10 we will know the true identity of this team. And I would not bet against them.
 

Create an account or login to comment

You must be a member in order to leave a comment

Create account

Create an account on our community. It's easy!

Log in

Already have an account? Log in here.

Users who are viewing this thread

 

New Orleans Saints Twitter Feed

 

Headlines

Top Bottom