Stalwart385
VIP Contributor
Online
After 6 5 weeks I think it's fair to look at the stats Jameis is putting up. Of course, in line with the conversations, it's a mixed bag. Overall ok to good but some things that make you look sideways and some jaw-dropping numbers.
For starters, this is what he really has to hang his hat on. A high rate of TD to pass attempts.
10.3 TD% (1st) - That is astronomically high. That would be a record the best I can tell. Obviously, it is the best in the league and by over 2%. That is a historic number.
That tells you he is being very efficient in the RedZone (plus connecting on some deep shots). Between the 20s his attempts are staying low though. We primarily rely on our run game to get there and he has delivered when it's his time.
Next is the opposing stat:
2.6 INT% (23rd) - That's not great, I don't like to see Jameis in the bottom 10 there again. It may be part of why Payton has limited his attempt until he's on the other side of the field. It's not horrible though. He's closer to the middle of the pack statistically than an outlier problem. It's the second-best rate of his career.
Along with his fumble yesterday, and some questionable throws we've seen, I'd say he's still within the range of his turnover-prone career but they have done a good job limiting it to the better side of it.
Next is one that concerns me the most and makes me question his future. I predicted this to be much higher in this offense.
60.3% Cmpl (29th) - He has to improve here. That means getting the ball in our playmaker's hands more often. Quicker decisions. More accuracy. It's the lifeblood of a west coast offense. I accept we will have more low percentage throws with more deep shots but I want to see this more as a career-high for Jameis. Closer to 65% than 60%.
The next one may be a bit controversial but I lean toward the rule of thumb a QB is responsible for 50% of his sacks. I see it as an important QB stat that can signify a good comfortable QB.
7.2 Sk% (24th) - This stat always comes with caveats (Jameis certainly has them at the moment with 3 linemen down). He can help this get better though. That means quicker decisions and hopefully helping that cmpl% along the way.
Next, I'll jump to a weird one. I always like to look at yards as a "volume" measure. If you do something a lot, teams tend to focus on stopping you from doing it more. The result is just too weird for me so I'll include yards per attempt as well.
178.4 Y/G (29th) | 7.7 Y/A (13th) - I honestly don't have a ton to say about this one. It certainly throws my Jameis prediction pre-season in the dumpster. Really low usage, but pretty decent efficiency. I have nothing to complain about and nothing to really celebrate. Just hard to wrap my brain around.
Moving on, finally, an "overall" measure. It's not perfect but it works within what it measures.
108.1 Rating (6th) - If you scroll down and look at the numbers this weights (TD%, INT%, Cmpl%, Y/A), you might wonder how is this that high. That shows you just how out of this world his TD% is right now. I think that's a lot of credit to Payton along with Jameis. Using the right tool at the right time. It's seriously impressive.
This may be the most controversial thing I post. I like to include an overall "film" grade with this as well. So I'll just tack it on here to try and balance out all these pure counting numbers.
71.8 PFF Grade (24th) - I won't say much about a PFF grade. I think most know what it is by this point. Trust it, don't, love it, hate it. That's what it is for now.
So my overall impression watching the games, the progression through the season, looking at the numbers, etc?
Jameis is ok, maybe even good, at times still a rollercoaster but the offense tends to reign it in. He's excellent in the redzone but has to get better between the 20s to win the tough games when the run game can't carry us. He's certainly not getting benched any time soon but he still has to progress a lot to see him as the future.
He should be getting some serious help soon. I think these next 3-5 weeks after the bye determines his future with the team. If we come out the same, I'm going to be disappointed. I'm expecting more from the passing game though. I think we'll certainly need it. I'll stay cautiously optimistic for now. I feel pretty good if the defense can keep playing the way they have.
For starters, this is what he really has to hang his hat on. A high rate of TD to pass attempts.
10.3 TD% (1st) - That is astronomically high. That would be a record the best I can tell. Obviously, it is the best in the league and by over 2%. That is a historic number.
That tells you he is being very efficient in the RedZone (plus connecting on some deep shots). Between the 20s his attempts are staying low though. We primarily rely on our run game to get there and he has delivered when it's his time.
Next is the opposing stat:
2.6 INT% (23rd) - That's not great, I don't like to see Jameis in the bottom 10 there again. It may be part of why Payton has limited his attempt until he's on the other side of the field. It's not horrible though. He's closer to the middle of the pack statistically than an outlier problem. It's the second-best rate of his career.
Along with his fumble yesterday, and some questionable throws we've seen, I'd say he's still within the range of his turnover-prone career but they have done a good job limiting it to the better side of it.
Next is one that concerns me the most and makes me question his future. I predicted this to be much higher in this offense.
60.3% Cmpl (29th) - He has to improve here. That means getting the ball in our playmaker's hands more often. Quicker decisions. More accuracy. It's the lifeblood of a west coast offense. I accept we will have more low percentage throws with more deep shots but I want to see this more as a career-high for Jameis. Closer to 65% than 60%.
The next one may be a bit controversial but I lean toward the rule of thumb a QB is responsible for 50% of his sacks. I see it as an important QB stat that can signify a good comfortable QB.
7.2 Sk% (24th) - This stat always comes with caveats (Jameis certainly has them at the moment with 3 linemen down). He can help this get better though. That means quicker decisions and hopefully helping that cmpl% along the way.
Next, I'll jump to a weird one. I always like to look at yards as a "volume" measure. If you do something a lot, teams tend to focus on stopping you from doing it more. The result is just too weird for me so I'll include yards per attempt as well.
178.4 Y/G (29th) | 7.7 Y/A (13th) - I honestly don't have a ton to say about this one. It certainly throws my Jameis prediction pre-season in the dumpster. Really low usage, but pretty decent efficiency. I have nothing to complain about and nothing to really celebrate. Just hard to wrap my brain around.
Moving on, finally, an "overall" measure. It's not perfect but it works within what it measures.
108.1 Rating (6th) - If you scroll down and look at the numbers this weights (TD%, INT%, Cmpl%, Y/A), you might wonder how is this that high. That shows you just how out of this world his TD% is right now. I think that's a lot of credit to Payton along with Jameis. Using the right tool at the right time. It's seriously impressive.
This may be the most controversial thing I post. I like to include an overall "film" grade with this as well. So I'll just tack it on here to try and balance out all these pure counting numbers.
71.8 PFF Grade (24th) - I won't say much about a PFF grade. I think most know what it is by this point. Trust it, don't, love it, hate it. That's what it is for now.
So my overall impression watching the games, the progression through the season, looking at the numbers, etc?
Jameis is ok, maybe even good, at times still a rollercoaster but the offense tends to reign it in. He's excellent in the redzone but has to get better between the 20s to win the tough games when the run game can't carry us. He's certainly not getting benched any time soon but he still has to progress a lot to see him as the future.
He should be getting some serious help soon. I think these next 3-5 weeks after the bye determines his future with the team. If we come out the same, I'm going to be disappointed. I'm expecting more from the passing game though. I think we'll certainly need it. I'll stay cautiously optimistic for now. I feel pretty good if the defense can keep playing the way they have.
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