Just another day in New Orleans (1 Viewer)

[porculator]

So if a woman dresses provocatively and gets raped, are you going to tell her she shouldn't have dressed that way and that it was just a consequence of her showing off her body?

Because you tried to change the thrust of it in your example by making it about walking her to her car which is irrelevant to this

There is nothing wrong with acknowledging that dressing provocatively may result in extra attention from the wrong kind of people. It's why every parent in the world worried about how their teenage daughter dresses.

The fact that it's not your fault if something bad happens doesn't change the result.

Life is a constant stream of risk assessment. Assuming that you live in a vacuum and trusting that your actions won't have any negative consequences, even though you're in the right, is pretty reckless.

 

[porculator]

Sorry didn't mean to derail things further.

Back to a more big picture outlook - we all know there is a crime increase but the more troubling thing is that the increase seems worse than most other cities in both severity and the breadth of victims (i.e. bystanders, out of towners, local business owners, etc.)

Part of me worries that the Post-Katrina wave has finally ended and the city is regressing to the mean. NOLA's (and Louisiana's) local industries have all been on a slow downturn for decades and post-K enthusiasm and investment may have hidden some of the rot. Hope I'm wrong. But with the lack of industry and competent leadership for decades, I'm trying to find a reason for optimism.

 

[Mr. Blue Sky]

Part of me worries that the Post-Katrina wave has finally ended and the city is regressing to the mean. NOLA's (and Louisiana's) local industries have all been on a slow downturn for decades and post-K enthusiasm and investment may have hidden some of the rot. Hope I'm wrong. But with the lack of industry and competent leadership for decades, I'm trying to find a reason for optimism.

Dont worry yourself, b/c im here to tell you that “Post Katrina Optimism”[tm] or whatever is long , long gone…… Katrina happened almost 20 yrs ago , so it’s not surprising that whatever boost the City received is ancient history now .

 

[Dago]

There is nothing wrong with acknowledging that dressing provocatively may result in extra attention from the wrong kind of people. It's why every parent in the world worried about how their teenage daughter dresses.

The fact that it's not your fault if something bad happens doesn't change the result.

Life is a constant stream of risk assessment. Assuming that you live in a vacuum and trusting that your actions won't have any negative consequences, even though you're in the right, is pretty reckless.

Thank you for clarifying and I appreciate the fact that you are consistent with your principles on it across the board. I also appreciate that you gave a straight answer without any bullcrap caveats

 

[porculator]

Dont worry yourself, b/c im here to tell you that “Post Katrina Optimism”[tm] or whatever is long , long gone…… Katrina happened almost 20 yrs ago , so it’s not surprising that whatever boost the City received is ancient history now .

Yea, I mean I'm not saying that New Orleans is still getting any recovery-specific boosts, but the hope was that some of those boosts that the city got would be catalysts for further growth.

Meanwhile that city skyline hasn't changed in 40 years.

 

[efil4stnias]

Dont worry yourself, b/c im here to tell you that “Post Katrina Optimism”[tm] or whatever is long , long gone…… Katrina happened almost 20 yrs ago , so it’s not surprising that whatever boost the City received is ancient history now .

and from where i sit ( insurance ) i cannot stress just how bad 2023 is going to be for a vast majority of folks ( both personal and business wise )

Just from a standpoint of insurance, the costs have reached a point where its going to become a burden for many. Just homeowners alone, folks are seeing 100-200% increases, with higher deductibles ( out of pocket in event of loss ).

Then you factor in the business side...Property insurance costs have doubled. Auto rates are absolutely mind blowing. We have no market competition- handful of carriers that are naming their price because thats how bad the recent spate of storms have left this area.

Venting now- i just quoted a client of mine, 11 pick up trucks. ( contractor ) He is currently paying around $44,000 - wanted to add a driver under 21. Current carrier prohibits under 21 so i had to get pricing from other markets.....3 markets quoted:

$110,000
$72,000
$71,500


Needless to say, he isnt adding that driver.


Thats simply unsustainable. We are pricing business to go OUT of BUSINESS. They simply arent going to work to pay tax, payroll and insurance. Thats not the goal.

We have to get off this merry go round or it will simply speed up and when it stops, none of us will recognize where we are.


So you start to look at a "macro" impact for business or people to live in the Greater New Orleans area, and it becomes clear REAL FAST, that its financially almost impossible. Then you add education, safety to the mix....we are in a self-feeding downward spiral i think.

 

[Mr. Blue Sky]

and from where i sit ( insurance ) i cannot stress just how bad 2023 is going to be for a vast majority of folks ( both personal and business wise )

Just from a standpoint of insurance, the costs have reached a point where its going to become a burden for many. Just homeowners alone, folks are seeing 100-200% increases, with higher deductibles ( out of pocket in event of loss ).

Then you factor in the business side...Property insurance costs have doubled. Auto rates are absolutely mind blowing. We have no market competition- handful of carriers that are naming their price because thats how bad the recent spate of storms have left this area.

Venting now- i just quoted a client of mine, 11 pick up trucks. ( contractor ) He is currently paying around $44,000 - wanted to add a driver under 21. Current carrier prohibits under 21 so i had to get pricing from other markets.....3 markets quoted:

$110,000
$72,000
$71,500


Needless to say, he isnt adding that driver.


Thats simply unsustainable. We are pricing business to go OUT of BUSINESS. They simply arent going to work to pay tax, payroll and insurance. Thats not the goal.

We have to get off this merry go round or it will simply speed up and when it stops, none of us will recognize where we are.


So you start to look at a "macro" impact for business or people to live in the Greater New Orleans area, and it becomes clear REAL FAST, that its financially almost impossible. Then you add education, safety to the mix....we are in a self-feeding downward spiral i think.

Good insights, thanks.. and pretty bleak.. Just curious, if you were in a position to make decisions- what sort of answers might you offer up ? Is there anyhting that can be done ? I know that for flood insurance, FEMA offers protection.. So maybe some sort of govt model for other types of insurance ? I cant imagine it would end well, or be very good- but just a way for people to sustain themselves and their businesses for a few years til something can be figured out (?)

 

[efil4stnias]

Good insights, thanks.. and pretty bleak.. Just curious, if you were in a position to make decisions- what sort of answers might you offer up ? Is there anyhting that can be done ? I know that for flood insurance, FEMA offers protection.. So maybe some sort of govt model for other types of insurance ? I cant imagine it would end well, or be very good- but just a way for people to sustain themselves and their businesses for a few years til something can be figured out (?)

we have a govt model- called LA Citizens.

honestly where i would start is talking directly to each and every citizen of SELA - non stop.

To get them to understand where we are, how we arrived and how its going to be until we can figure out solutions to attract carriers back into the market.

Then with attorneys. They have to reign in this "adversarial" advertising. Not each and every company is out to screw you. But they have beaten that drum for over 20 years, and now folks get an attorney before they even get an estimate. There are instances where they are needed. But a simple fender bender at 10mph doesnt need to turn into a $30,000 bodily injury claim either.

Residents - moving forward have to come to terms with costs of home/property insurance. The days of paying $.50 rates per $1000 are gone. They just are. We may get there someday in the future, but in order for companies to maintain capital, solvency, liquidity for catastrophic loss, they simply have to charge more. Folks have to understand that "free market" means when things are in high demand, prices will go up. So when it comes time to rebuild, that 2x4 stud isnt $4.00 a stud, its now $8.00. Same for just about every other part of your home/building. You are going to have to "fortify" your roof ( seal it at the decking ) to keep water from intruding when you lose shingles. That will cost more, but benefit you in long run ( and thats coming- if you want options to choose carriers )

Insurers- why is it national home builders can buy material en masse, at lower-than-retail prices but you guys cant figure a way to coordinate with national building materials dealers to somehow offset the "free market" costs? There has to be a way that a State Farm, or Hartford or Chubb can coordinate something for catastrophic events.

IF not- Government- to step in and FREEZE costs for building materials. They do this for gasoline. Why cant they say " hey, if you are in an area deemed Federal Disaster- there will be no cost increases. Whatever you sold that lumber, pvc, drywall, insulation etc, it remains the same as the day before event" - Simple as that. They will still make plenty of profit since they were selling just a day before event AT A PROFIT.

And if we get the above- then all this haggling over "what is my true replacement cost" will not fluctuate as wildly as it does for many after a storm. ( but folks also need to keep up with that themselves - get educated on what it costs to restore your structure - NOT MARKET VALUE - Construction value ) If companies know that the Exactimate estimate will reflect building costs a week before storm, and prices frozen, it shouldnt create mass confusion.


There is a ton to sift thru, but thats where i would start. State Legislature needs to step in. Folks need to gain a better understanding of whats happening.

We may go another 10-15 years with not a single storm. Doesnt mean your insurance costs will drop to half of what you pay, because the storm is coming and to avoid situations like this, carriers have to be properly monetized thru captial and reinsurance.

 

[guidomerkinsrules]

Sorry didn't mean to derail things further.

Back to a more big picture outlook - we all know there is a crime increase but the more troubling thing is that the increase seems worse than most other cities in both severity and the breadth of victims (i.e. bystanders, out of towners, local business owners, etc.)

Part of me worries that the Post-Katrina wave has finally ended and the city is regressing to the mean. NOLA's (and Louisiana's) local industries have all been on a slow downturn for decades and post-K enthusiasm and investment may have hidden some of the rot. Hope I'm wrong. But with the lack of industry and competent leadership for decades, I'm trying to find a reason for optimism.

Louisiana is 50th out of 50 in most metrics (or thereabouts)
PostK $ probably kept that state drag in check for awhile, but tourism and culture/history seems the only thing that keeps us from becoming Jackson

 

[CapitalCitySaint]

I was thinking about this thread today when I went for a walk and got irritated all over again.

I hate the political system of the US. And I don’t mean Republican or Democrat. I mean the capitalist hell we are under and the working class gets screwed the absolute most by everyone.

The rich steal our labor and healthcare and the uneducated poors steal our belongings in car jacking, vehicle theft (both your vehicle and property inside it), home invasions, robbing your local business, etc.

If more people actually voted in their financial best interest, this country would be a much different place.

You know why the poors don’t go break windows of cars in rich neighborhoods? Because the rich people vote in their local elections and make sure the local politicians have policies in place that look out for them and if the politicians don’t oblige, they stop the donations and support.

If the poors were consistently breaking into rich folks houses, breaking their car windows, waiting on their neighborhood corners to car Jack then, you’d see a different law enforcement response.

Instead, they go steal from the working class because they know the cops & politicians do not care and the working class are too busy fighting each other to recognize that 1. We have far more power than we think in just sheer numbers and 2. that this country is carried by the working class and we are getting shafted by the rich & the poor.

 

[Mr. Sparkle]

I was thinking about this thread today when I went for a walk and got irritated all over again.

I hate the political system of the US. And I don’t mean Republican or Democrat. I mean the capitalist hell we are under and the working class gets screwed the absolute most by everyone.

The rich steal our labor and healthcare and the uneducated poors steal our belongings in car jacking, vehicle theft (both your vehicle and property inside it), home invasions, robbing your local business, etc.

If more people actually voted in their financial best interest, this country would be a much different place.

You know why the poors don’t go break windows of cars in rich neighborhoods? Because the rich people vote in their local elections and make sure the local politicians have policies in place that look out for them and if the politicians don’t oblige, they stop the donations and support.

If the poors were consistently breaking into rich folks houses, breaking their car windows, waiting on their neighborhood corners to car Jack then, you’d see a different law enforcement response.

Instead, they go steal from the working class because they know the cops & politicians do not care and the working class are too busy fighting each other to recognize that 1. We have far more power than we think in just sheer numbers and 2. that this country is carried by the working class and we are getting shafted by the rich & the poor.

I live in a pretty nice block for Orleans Parish and we've been hit 3 times since 2020. Plus a murder down the street at the edge of the park for good measure.

The only advantage that the truly wealthy have is the option to pick up and leave to one of their other homes and keep their NOLA pad for Mardi Gras and JazzFest. But even most of the 'richer' people in New Orleans are tethered here by a job and salary and are getting hit by the same wave as everyone else.

 

[guidomerkinsrules]

I live in a pretty nice block for Orleans Parish and we've been hit 3 times since 2020. Plus a murder down the street at the edge of the park for good measure.

The only advantage that the truly wealthy have is the option to pick up and leave to one of their other homes and keep their NOLA pad for Mardi Gras and JazzFest. But even most of the 'richer' people in New Orleans are tethered here by a job and salary and are getting hit by the same wave as everyone else.

wait...which park?

 

[Mr. Sparkle]

Audubon Park - drug deal/ripoff gone bad

Family identifies man shot, killed near Audubon Park

Family members identified the victim as Devin Espadron.

www.wdsu.com

 

[GeauxWhoDats]

we have a govt model- called LA Citizens.

honestly where i would start is talking directly to each and every citizen of SELA - non stop.

To get them to understand where we are, how we arrived and how its going to be until we can figure out solutions to attract carriers back into the market.

Then with attorneys. They have to reign in this "adversarial" advertising. Not each and every company is out to screw you. But they have beaten that drum for over 20 years, and now folks get an attorney before they even get an estimate. There are instances where they are needed. But a simple fender bender at 10mph doesnt need to turn into a $30,000 bodily injury claim either.

Residents - moving forward have to come to terms with costs of home/property insurance. The days of paying $.50 rates per $1000 are gone. They just are. We may get there someday in the future, but in order for companies to maintain capital, solvency, liquidity for catastrophic loss, they simply have to charge more. Folks have to understand that "free market" means when things are in high demand, prices will go up. So when it comes time to rebuild, that 2x4 stud isnt $4.00 a stud, its now $8.00. Same for just about every other part of your home/building. You are going to have to "fortify" your roof ( seal it at the decking ) to keep water from intruding when you lose shingles. That will cost more, but benefit you in long run ( and thats coming- if you want options to choose carriers )

Insurers- why is it national home builders can buy material en masse, at lower-than-retail prices but you guys cant figure a way to coordinate with national building materials dealers to somehow offset the "free market" costs? There has to be a way that a State Farm, or Hartford or Chubb can coordinate something for catastrophic events.

IF not- Government- to step in and FREEZE costs for building materials. They do this for gasoline. Why cant they say " hey, if you are in an area deemed Federal Disaster- there will be no cost increases. Whatever you sold that lumber, pvc, drywall, insulation etc, it remains the same as the day before event" - Simple as that. They will still make plenty of profit since they were selling just a day before event AT A PROFIT.

And if we get the above- then all this haggling over "what is my true replacement cost" will not fluctuate as wildly as it does for many after a storm. ( but folks also need to keep up with that themselves - get educated on what it costs to restore your structure - NOT MARKET VALUE - Construction value ) If companies know that the Exactimate estimate will reflect building costs a week before storm, and prices frozen, it shouldnt create mass confusion.


There is a ton to sift thru, but thats where i would start. State Legislature needs to step in. Folks need to gain a better understanding of whats happening.

We may go another 10-15 years with not a single storm. Doesnt mean your insurance costs will drop to half of what you pay, because the storm is coming and to avoid situations like this, carriers have to be properly monetized thru captial and reinsurance.

I am also going to add that the LDOI needs to be a little more selective in allowing companies to operate in Louisiana that do not have the proper financial strength (Demotech vs AM Best). In a time where beggars cannot be choosers, the LDOI absolutely needs stronger criteria or we are going to be right back in this same situation every 3-5 years.

I just saw the last financials for one of the "new" carriers and they had $15M in Surplus. Demotech is a joke. For $50 I could get my Agency a Demotech Rating.

 

[CapitalCitySaint]

I live in a pretty nice block for Orleans Parish and we've been hit 3 times since 2020. Plus a murder down the street at the edge of the park for good measure.

The only advantage that the truly wealthy have is the option to pick up and leave to one of their other homes and keep their NOLA pad for Mardi Gras and JazzFest. But even most of the 'richer' people in New Orleans are tethered here by a job and salary and are getting hit by the same wave as everyone else.

I'm not really familiar with where you live but most places, crime and other desirable things where the rich live is pretty low.

For example, I live in San Diego. The homeless situation here is out of control. Most coastal towns/neighborhoods are flooded with homeless people. Coronado Island (where the rich live) has almost none. Occasionally you'll see one roaming around but not often. La Jolla, despite being right next to Pacific Beach where they are everywhere, has almost none.

There are no gates to keep the homeless from venturing between PB & La Jolla. You know what Coronado & La Jolla both have? Their own police force.

I guarantee you that if burglars and car jackers started targeting residents of La Jolla and Coronado, there would be a much different response. Not that San Diego has much of that in the first place but Los Angeles definitely does. If car jackers started lying in wait in Beverly Hills instead of other more central locations, car jackings would decline immediately.