Kamara's usage & Long term vision (1 Viewer)

[rsmith2783]

Entering into the 2017 season, most of us fans were wondering what we would get from Kamara. Considering that we had AP & Ingram, Kamara was seen as the joker back that would finally replace Cadet.
We soon found out that Kamara was much more than a pass catching back. We know Kamara has great hands and is a nightmare match-up for any LB or Safety. I think most of us would agree that he could easily be in the top 5 greatest running back for the Saints. So simply put, he's a special and unique talent.

In the past Payton has utilized 3 running backs and they all were unique in what they could bring to the table. Over the past two seasons, we've only used two and Kamara's usage increased this past year. During last year's offseason, he was seen working out with Colt Colleti and I've heard that he's adding more muscle this year. Could this be a reason why he didn't have as many splash plays this past season? Is he changing his style of play or did the Saints tell him to prepare for more touches?

I know historically that the Saints would have 3 type of backs: Ingram/Deuce type, Pierre type & Bush type. I believe Kamara is a mixture of Pierre and Bush. Now that Ingram is gone, is Kamara going to see more touches again? If so, it is temporary until Murray gets adjusted to the offense?

One of my concerns is that during the past two seasons, we did not have a backup for Kamara. During the 1st game against the Falcons in 2017 we saw how the rest of the game unfolded without him.

 

[Slaw]

I think Kamara's touches will continue to increase, specifically his carries. I'm expecting him to get around 3 more carries a game (16), up from his 13 a game in 2018.

 

[meily]

I don't see much changing in how we use Kamara, I think we put him in danger by over usage and the real question is finding that complimentary back so Kamara does not have to shoulder more than he needs so he can be effective in the offense with or without the ball.

 

[rsmith2783]

I think Kamara's touches will continue to increase, specifically his carries. I'm expecting him to get around 3 more carries a game (16), up from his 13 a game in 2018.

We've been known to give our RBs a lite load because we would utilize all 3. Lately it's been just 2 and if we run him into the ground, then he will only be good to us for a few seasons before the decline start.

 

[Slaw]

We've been known to give our RBs a lite load because we would utilize all 3. Lately it's been just 2 and if we run him into the ground, then he will only be good to us for a few seasons before the decline start.

I don't think 16 carries a game will run him into the ground. Kamara is bigger/stronger than McCaffrey who carries the load for Carolina.

 

[Saint Taysom]

I think AK41’s role/load will remain the same.

I think Murray will not have as big of a role as Ingram had, and that a 3rd RB will be added to the regular rotation, more like the PT23, Bush, and Mike Bell rotation of ‘09

 

[Alan12]

I don't think 16 carries a game will run him into the ground. Kamara is bigger/stronger than McCaffrey who carries the load for Carolina.

And McCaffrey will be lucky to see a second contract above vet minimum with the way Carolina is running him. He has 573 touches through two seasons, Kamara is at 476. It’s not just the carries, it’s the receptions too.

Kamara averaged 12.6 touches/game in 2017 (more so 13.4 if the TNF game against the Falcons isn’t counted considering he missed 95% of that game) and his production was phenomenal.

In 2018 that average ended up being bumped up to 18.3 touches/game, largely out of necessity due to the suspension and Gillislee fumbling everything that wasn’t tied to his wrist with a string.

While his targets and receptions remained steady, Kamara went from 120 rushes in 2017 to 194 in 2018, a ~62% increase in workload, and as a result his YPC began to suffer, dropping a full yard and a half from 6.1 YPC in 2017 to 4.6 YPC in 2018.

On those 74 extra carries in 2018, he only had 155 additional yards from his 2017 totals.

He’s a phenomenal player, but I don’t want us to run him into the ground by unnecessarily beating him up between the tackles when we don’t need to be, just for the sake of giving him extra carries.

 

[saint_drago]

I said it before last season and I'll say it again, just because a RB can be a workhorse doesn't mean he should be. Obviously AK could be a workhorse and handle the touches that the Panthers gave McCaffrey last season. But I still don't think that's the best way to use him.

Coaches have to show a lot of restraint when it comes to handling a RB's workload. On one hand you have this awesome player who can do amazing things and help you win games. Of course you want to get the ball to him as much as possible. But then on the other hand if you run that player into the ground it could decrease his short term productivity and long term viability.

A current example of this is Leonard Fournette. He hasn't been the same since he had 300 rushing attempts his sophomore season at LSU. He's been good when healthy but all those carries add up. Some backs can handle that kind of volume but not all backs (or bodies) are created equal.

SP is a firm believer in the committee approach, but then again, he's never had an Alvin Kamara. All due respect to PT, Bush, and Deuce but AK is a different kind or player. Honestly I don't think he's even comparable to any other back SP has had with the Saints. He's more like a Curtis Martin/Marshall Faulk hybrid. Hopefully SP isn't forced to overwork him.

 

[JPH]

I think you have to take into account his contract as well. Not the one he's on but the next one, which will come before the current one ends if the Saints are smart. If we wait till he's a UFA AK's going to want Le'Veon Bell money and I don't see the Saints paying that for a RB.

I wonder if we see a 3 year deal singed this season or next and his touches go up a lot, or a trade late next season... I'm rarely correct about these things so it will be a 5 year deal and touches stay about the same.

 

[RevDeuceWindham]

And McCaffrey will be lucky to see a second contract above vet minimum with the way Carolina is running him. He has 573 touches through two seasons, Kamara is at 476. It’s not just the carries, it’s the receptions too.

Kamara averaged 12.6 touches/game in 2017 (more so 13.4 if the TNF game against the Falcons isn’t counted considering he missed 95% of that game) and his production was phenomenal.

In 2018 that average ended up being bumped up to 18.3 touches/game, largely out of necessity due to the suspension and Gillislee fumbling everything that wasn’t tied to his wrist with a string.

While his targets and receptions remained steady, Kamara went from 120 rushes in 2017 to 194 in 2018, a ~62% increase in workload, and as a result his YPC began to suffer, dropping a full yard and a half from 6.1 YPC in 2017 to 4.6 YPC in 2018.

On those 74 extra carries in 2018, he only had 155 additional yards from his 2017 totals.

He’s a phenomenal player, but I don’t want us to run him into the ground by unnecessarily beating him up between the tackles when we don’t need to be, just for the sake of giving him extra carries.

Should be noted that the YPC drop is because as a rookie, Ingram was the primary focus. Teams stacked the box with 8+ against Ingram and Kamara would see a lot of 5/6 man boxes. It's a lot easier to get big YPC that way (see Darren Sproles'best year in NOLA.) In 2018 the understanding of how dangerous AK was become part of gameplans and his stacked box numbers tripled. Combine that with the fact that at the beginning of the year they tried to use AK more in Ingram's role as a power guy (Inside Zone/Duo/etc.) and a sharp drop off was expected.

Do agree you don't want to overwork him, but I don't think 2018 was that either.

 

[Rdanderson91]

His pace is insane. In 2 seasons he’s already 9th all time in saints history in rushing touchdowns. And that’s while sharing the load.

 

[dutar76]

I just think Kamara will see the same usage that he saw last year. If there's a difference, it'll be in his effectiveness. Especially in the passing game. Sean Payton has shown us what he can do when he has a legit RB/TE combo. With the addition of Cook, he will have the ability to torture LB's and SS's once again.

 

[Nonreg]

I’m not a big fan of the “workhorse RB” role for many reasons:

1) You are making 1 player have to much emphasis on the offense, specially at RB where they can get injured very easily.

2) As previously mentioned; the less cares / hits the longer his career

3) I think AK is much more dangerous in the passing game; allowing him to operate in space and avoid those big thumps


I am hoping we address RB in the draft; if for nothing less than just to take carries away late in games when we don’t need to risk injury. AK went on record last year that he will be looking for a mega-contract; let’s make sure we protect that investment.

 

[Stalwart385]

I think Murray will be a large part of the time share. He will take more of the violent short yardage snaps. I think Kamara will do less of that than last year. Overall I think Kamara will have less snaps than last year (because he played alot of snaps early). I'm not worried about his workload, he'll never be asked to run Gurley or Bell type of snaps. Unless their is an injury anyway, then we'd see a repeat of early last year. Would be nice to know we had potential in a rb3. A lot of positions need depth though.

 

[saint_drago]

I’m not a big fan of the “workhorse RB” role for many reasons:

1) You are making 1 player have to much emphasis on the offense, specially at RB where they can get injured very easily.

2) As previously mentioned; the less cares / hits the longer his career

3) I think AK is much more dangerous in the passing game; allowing him to operate in space and avoid those big thumps


I am hoping we address RB in the draft; if for nothing less than just to take carries away late in games when we don’t need to risk injury. AK went on record last year that he will be looking for a mega-contract; let’s make sure we protect that investment.

I know it's too early to be thinking about the huge contract he's going to get but I do wonder, will that huge contract come from the Saints? Should it come from the Saints?

Right now the top 4 contracts for RBs look like this on a per season average:

1. T. Gurley - 14.37 mill per year
2. L. Bell - 13.12 mill
3. D. Johnson - 13 mill
4. D. Freeman - 8.25

I can't imagine what a RB would have to do to be worth 14+ million dollars a year. The Rams gave that huge contract to Gurley and he's been great, but they made it to the Super Bowl with him receiving very few touches.

Le'Veon Bell was probably the best RB in football from '14-'17 and he definitely earned a raise but there's no way he's going to be able to play up to that contract with the Jets. Bell was incredible for the Steelers surrounded by a few Pro Bowl WRs, a Pro Bowl TE, and a HOF QB. But even with Bell and all that talent, they never won it all.

If you go back and look at the Super Bowl champions over the past two decades one thing is very clear, teams led by a star RB rarely win the Super Bowl. The Ravens won it with Ray Rice and the Seahawks won it with Marshawn Lynch.

Trivia question. Who was the last RB to lead the league in rushing and win the Super Bowl in the same season?