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Yo, top of a fine cool autumn Thursday morn to all. Its week nine for know who to pull for and the playoff possibilities are as muddled as ever.
The Saints loss to the Ravens, while disheartening, was not a costly loss if you have to lose a game. Your big games are first of all your southern division games and after that your NFC conference games. Later this season the Saints go to Dallas and to New York(Giants). Those are going to be huge games as it is very possible the saints could find themselves tied with one or both of these teams needed the tiebreaker win to get a wild card berth. The Ravens loss hurts mostly in the sense that we cant afford to lose home games against beatable teams when we have to travel to the likes of Atlanta, Dallas and New York.
You have two theories in know who to pull for. If you think the saints will win their division you can pull for teams leading their division, like the bears, to lose to wild card potential teams so you can get home field advantage. If you are more worried about just making the playoffs its usually better to have teams run away with their divisions and hang losses on wild card hopefuls. I am in the latter mode this week, that is, I am pulling for those teams to win that give us the best chance to get a wild card.
Hopefully experts and fans alike who make quick judgments have learned their lessons this year. Many wrote the Giants off after their 1-2 start which included a miracle win at Philly. Some had buried the falcons after their two losses and had Vick going to the NFL Europe. Most people had Dallas falling to 3-4 with a loss to Carolina. You can count on more twists and turns as the season progresses.
No team is mathematically eliminated right now. Chicago is the only team that appears to be a likely shoe in. Detroit, Tampa, Arizona, Washington, and San Francisco are all long shots with 5 or more losses. Green Bay has clawed their way back to at least be on the radar. The playoff standings look like this:
Chicago- 7-0
New York 5-2
Saints 5-2
Falcons 5-2
Seahawks 4-3
Cowboys 4-3
Seattle 4-3
Rams 4-3
Vikings 4-3
Carolina 4-4
Philly 4-4
Green Bay 3-4
The hot teams in that group are probably the Giants and the Falcons. If Romo can play like he did in Carolina, the Cowboys will be a hard team to beat. Its such a jumble at this point. If this was a power poll, I would actually rank the Giants at the top. The Saints worry me a good bit and even though they are at 5-2, they would likely be underdogs to most of the teams on the board here on a neutral field, save for maybe Green bay.
5-2 Atlanta at 1-6 Detroit - Well you dont need me to tell you who to pull for. And I wouldnt be shocked a bit if Detroit won. Okay, I lied. I would be shocked a little, but not much. The Falcons are good but inconsistent. Detroit is not as bad as their record might indicate. I will be flipping to this game and pulling for a Lions upset.
4-3 Dallas at 2-5 Washington - Of the 2-5 teams, the redskins are the team with the best chance to get back in the hunt if they could put together a 3 game win streak. Romo is a rookie qb playing in a tough stadium against a huge rival. There was little pressure on Romo last week, everyone expected the Cowboys to lose. This is a pressure cooker for a rookie qb. We want the Cowboys to lose and I think they will. This is a hard ticket to get in DC and the redskins will be sky high for cowboys. Lets hope its a little big horn for Dallas.
3-4 Green Bay at 2-5 Buffalo - This game is a great example of how important early season games against NFC foes can be. We hold the uber-valuable tiebreaker over Green Bay. Unells we get in a three way tie break with GB, they would have to win a game more than us to get in so effectively we have a 3 game lead over the Packers. We want the improved Packers to lose, but our win over Green Bay makes them not a big threat at this time to the saints.
2-5 Houston at 5-2 N.Y. Giants - We obviously want Houston to pull the upset and Mario Williams to have 5 sacks. It probably will not happen. With their schedule and road wins over Philly and Dallas the Giants are big favorites to win the East.
4-3 Kansas City at 4-3 St. Louis - This interconference match up of two geographically connected foes, both flying under the radar a bit, is one of the best games for Sunday. The Rams are a quiet 4-3 and Bulger has been nearly perfect this season. KC is playing well. We need the chiefs to win this and keep us ahead of the rams, a team who might well win the NFC west. If they do not they will likely be a wild card contender.
1-6 Miami at 7-0 Chicago - Wait a second. Did I just write that the Bears are 7-0 and that the Dolphins are 1-6? No way, we must be in some parallel universe. we want the bears to lose even though Nick Saban's weekly melt downs are becoming more and more entertaining.
4-3 Minnesota at 2-5 San Francisco - Did New England deconstruct the Vikings or what? A SF upset here would be delightful for Saints fans, the Vikings are playing for a wild card spot now.
5-2 New Orleans at 2-5 Tampa Bay - This is a big game for the saints. Its not a huge game, but its a big one. Here is the big question to be answered. Are the saints really a good team? Its that simple. If they are, they win. And I think they make the playoffs. If they lose you have to wonder if they are really good enough to make the play offs this year.
2-5 Oakland at 4-3 Seattle - Okay, a month ago the Seahawks would have been 78 point favorites in this game. Now at least we can have a discussion. Seattle is a west team headed south. I would love to see the raiders beat them even though its unlikely.
7-0 Indianapolis at 6-1 New England - Yes I know, this game has no impact on the saints. But how can you not talk about this game. These two teams are better than any NFC team, probably by a long shot. Sure an NFC team could beat them, but in a ten game match these teams would beat most NFC teams 8 out of 10. I want Indy to win and go undefeated through the season. The media goes into a frenzy over the whole Payton Manning cant win the big game. Can you imagine the pressure building if Indy goes into the playoffs undefeated? It would be a great story. Manning needs a super bowl win to define his career or his career will always be defined by his not winning the super bowl. Or getting to it for that matter.
The Saints loss to the Ravens, while disheartening, was not a costly loss if you have to lose a game. Your big games are first of all your southern division games and after that your NFC conference games. Later this season the Saints go to Dallas and to New York(Giants). Those are going to be huge games as it is very possible the saints could find themselves tied with one or both of these teams needed the tiebreaker win to get a wild card berth. The Ravens loss hurts mostly in the sense that we cant afford to lose home games against beatable teams when we have to travel to the likes of Atlanta, Dallas and New York.
You have two theories in know who to pull for. If you think the saints will win their division you can pull for teams leading their division, like the bears, to lose to wild card potential teams so you can get home field advantage. If you are more worried about just making the playoffs its usually better to have teams run away with their divisions and hang losses on wild card hopefuls. I am in the latter mode this week, that is, I am pulling for those teams to win that give us the best chance to get a wild card.
Hopefully experts and fans alike who make quick judgments have learned their lessons this year. Many wrote the Giants off after their 1-2 start which included a miracle win at Philly. Some had buried the falcons after their two losses and had Vick going to the NFL Europe. Most people had Dallas falling to 3-4 with a loss to Carolina. You can count on more twists and turns as the season progresses.
No team is mathematically eliminated right now. Chicago is the only team that appears to be a likely shoe in. Detroit, Tampa, Arizona, Washington, and San Francisco are all long shots with 5 or more losses. Green Bay has clawed their way back to at least be on the radar. The playoff standings look like this:
Chicago- 7-0
New York 5-2
Saints 5-2
Falcons 5-2
Seahawks 4-3
Cowboys 4-3
Seattle 4-3
Rams 4-3
Vikings 4-3
Carolina 4-4
Philly 4-4
Green Bay 3-4
The hot teams in that group are probably the Giants and the Falcons. If Romo can play like he did in Carolina, the Cowboys will be a hard team to beat. Its such a jumble at this point. If this was a power poll, I would actually rank the Giants at the top. The Saints worry me a good bit and even though they are at 5-2, they would likely be underdogs to most of the teams on the board here on a neutral field, save for maybe Green bay.
5-2 Atlanta at 1-6 Detroit - Well you dont need me to tell you who to pull for. And I wouldnt be shocked a bit if Detroit won. Okay, I lied. I would be shocked a little, but not much. The Falcons are good but inconsistent. Detroit is not as bad as their record might indicate. I will be flipping to this game and pulling for a Lions upset.
4-3 Dallas at 2-5 Washington - Of the 2-5 teams, the redskins are the team with the best chance to get back in the hunt if they could put together a 3 game win streak. Romo is a rookie qb playing in a tough stadium against a huge rival. There was little pressure on Romo last week, everyone expected the Cowboys to lose. This is a pressure cooker for a rookie qb. We want the Cowboys to lose and I think they will. This is a hard ticket to get in DC and the redskins will be sky high for cowboys. Lets hope its a little big horn for Dallas.
3-4 Green Bay at 2-5 Buffalo - This game is a great example of how important early season games against NFC foes can be. We hold the uber-valuable tiebreaker over Green Bay. Unells we get in a three way tie break with GB, they would have to win a game more than us to get in so effectively we have a 3 game lead over the Packers. We want the improved Packers to lose, but our win over Green Bay makes them not a big threat at this time to the saints.
2-5 Houston at 5-2 N.Y. Giants - We obviously want Houston to pull the upset and Mario Williams to have 5 sacks. It probably will not happen. With their schedule and road wins over Philly and Dallas the Giants are big favorites to win the East.
4-3 Kansas City at 4-3 St. Louis - This interconference match up of two geographically connected foes, both flying under the radar a bit, is one of the best games for Sunday. The Rams are a quiet 4-3 and Bulger has been nearly perfect this season. KC is playing well. We need the chiefs to win this and keep us ahead of the rams, a team who might well win the NFC west. If they do not they will likely be a wild card contender.
1-6 Miami at 7-0 Chicago - Wait a second. Did I just write that the Bears are 7-0 and that the Dolphins are 1-6? No way, we must be in some parallel universe. we want the bears to lose even though Nick Saban's weekly melt downs are becoming more and more entertaining.
4-3 Minnesota at 2-5 San Francisco - Did New England deconstruct the Vikings or what? A SF upset here would be delightful for Saints fans, the Vikings are playing for a wild card spot now.
5-2 New Orleans at 2-5 Tampa Bay - This is a big game for the saints. Its not a huge game, but its a big one. Here is the big question to be answered. Are the saints really a good team? Its that simple. If they are, they win. And I think they make the playoffs. If they lose you have to wonder if they are really good enough to make the play offs this year.
2-5 Oakland at 4-3 Seattle - Okay, a month ago the Seahawks would have been 78 point favorites in this game. Now at least we can have a discussion. Seattle is a west team headed south. I would love to see the raiders beat them even though its unlikely.
7-0 Indianapolis at 6-1 New England - Yes I know, this game has no impact on the saints. But how can you not talk about this game. These two teams are better than any NFC team, probably by a long shot. Sure an NFC team could beat them, but in a ten game match these teams would beat most NFC teams 8 out of 10. I want Indy to win and go undefeated through the season. The media goes into a frenzy over the whole Payton Manning cant win the big game. Can you imagine the pressure building if Indy goes into the playoffs undefeated? It would be a great story. Manning needs a super bowl win to define his career or his career will always be defined by his not winning the super bowl. Or getting to it for that matter.
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Let's, ummm, just get to 6-2, shall we?