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At first glance the playoff picture in the NFC seems very muddled with many teams still in the hunt. That is true if you include the non-BCS NFC West in the discussion. Three teams are in the hunt for the West division title. Even Arizona at 3-8 is only two games out.
A closer look tells us it is not that complicated now. A wild card team will not advance from the West. That means the North, South and East will get five spots, three division champs and two wild card spots.
There are only seven teams realistically competing for those five spots, eight if you include Washington at 5-6 and think they can win out. I do not think they can but if they win a couple in a row we can include them in the analysis. The seven teams most probably in the wild card discussion in order are:
Atlanta - 9-2
Chicago - 8-3
New Orleans - 8-3
Philadelphia - 7-4
New York Giants 7-4
Green Bay - 7-4
Tampa Bay - 7-4
All things being equal one might divide 5 by 7 and conclude each team has a 71% chance of making the playoffs. All things are not equal. Atlanta is two games up on four of the teams and is a heavy favorite to make the playoffs as a division champ or wildcard. New Orleans and Chicago have better odds than the four 7-4 teams. This does not factor in the relative difficulty of the team's remaining schedules. I would say New Orleans has better than an 80% chance of making the playoffs, odds that could go significantly down if the Saints get upset this week.
It all certainly does make kwtpf exciting. This week's schedule contain's probably the biggest kwtpf game of the year to date for the Saints. People may be surprised to read it is not as easy a call as you think.
5-6 Houston @ 7-4 Philadelphia - It must be hard to be a Texans Football fan. They are the biggest tease team in football. They opened the season beating Indianapolis and followed that up with a win at Washington. Since then they have been 3-6. The good news for Houston is that they are in the AFC South, the kissing cousin of the NFC West, and are only one game out. Philadelphia has probably been the most consistently good NFC team over the last ten years. They are in a dogfight in the East (no pun intended Vick fans) and need to win this game. There is no guarantee that a wildcard team comes out of the East. Pull for Houston.
5-6 Washington @ 7-4 New York Giants - This is a big game. It is a virtual elimination game for the Redskins, which is good. They will have to pull out all the stops to beat the Giants. A few weeks ago some had crowned the Giants as the team to beat in the NFC. Back to back losses to division rivals Dallas and Philadelphia had the Giants reeling. They were fortunate to beat Jacksonville last week. Our wild card hopes would be significantly enhanced by a Redskin win. Pull hard for Washington.
8-3 Chicago @ 2-9 Detroit - These teams played each other the first game of the season and the end of the game set the tone for both teams for the rest of the year. Calvin Johnson caught a touchdown pass to beat Chicago that somehow turned out not to be a touchdown. Detroit would go on to find all kinds of other heartbreak ways to lose close games. The Bears found ways to win close games. After beating Philly last week the Bears have actually gotten some respect around the league. Few have wanted to believe they are for real. The fact is that even though he is arrogant and unlikeable, Jay Cutler can throw the rock. Pull for the football gods to smile on Detroit and give those guys a freaking break. The Lions would love to play the spoiler role in this game. The Bears are not who we thought they were.
4-7 San Francisco @ 7-4 Green Bay - Green Bay scares me. They have a solid team and should have beat Atlanta in Atlanta. I figure them to either win the North or to get one of the wild cards. If the Saints end up with a wild card, I would rather play in Chicago than Green Bay. The 49ers are still alive and have decent talent. It would be an upset for them to win, but not a huge upset. It would be huge for the Saints playoff hopes. Pull for 49ers.
9-2 Atlanta @ 7-4 Tampa Bay - If your goal is division crown and top seed, pull for Tampa. If you want to improve your overall chances of ensuring a playoff spot, pull for Atlanta. Heresy you say? At least hear me out. Should the Saints lose to Cincinnati (it could happen) and Tampa win, the Saints would suddenly be in a fight for their playoff lives. The Saints have a tough schedule going in with two road games in which they will likely be underdogs, at Baltimore and at Atlanta. A 2-3 finish for the Saints is very possible which would put them at 10-6. We do not want the final game of the season with Tampa to be for a playoff berth, we want Tampa eliminated before then. That being said, we still pull for Tampa. A Tampa win over Atlanta gives the Saints the tiebreak over Atlanta if the Saints beat Atlanta and Tampa (we would be tied head up with Atlanta and have a better division record). Put another way, if Tampa wins, the Saints control their destiny in the NFC South.
It will not be all bad if Tampa loses, but I like our chances in Atlanta in a game for the marbles.
8-3 New Orleans @ 2-9 Cincinnati - Thank goodness for spell check. Is there a harder NFL city to spell than Cincinnati? No matter what I do I always end up spelling it with two t's. It's a hard team to figure out as well. They are one of the only teams in the NFL with a supposedly top notch quarterback that is doing so poorly. They did beat a tough Raven team and have had some close games with good teams. They have also stunk it up pretty bad. The Bengals lost close games to our big division foes, Atlanta and Tampa. The Saints have played down to their competition several times this year so this one is no gimme. On the bright side, the Saints are on a four game win streak and their consistency of play has improved. They are as healthy as they have been in a while. This is the type of game where you want to get up on the other team quickly (and as I write that I am trying to think of what type of game you would be in where you don't want to get up on your opponent quickly
). You get the point. The difference between 9-3 and 8-4 at this point is huge. Actually it's only a one game difference, but a 9-3 team is almost a lock for a playoff berth, an 8-4 team has less margin for error. We need this game to keep pace with the Falcons.
A closer look tells us it is not that complicated now. A wild card team will not advance from the West. That means the North, South and East will get five spots, three division champs and two wild card spots.
There are only seven teams realistically competing for those five spots, eight if you include Washington at 5-6 and think they can win out. I do not think they can but if they win a couple in a row we can include them in the analysis. The seven teams most probably in the wild card discussion in order are:
Atlanta - 9-2
Chicago - 8-3
New Orleans - 8-3
Philadelphia - 7-4
New York Giants 7-4
Green Bay - 7-4
Tampa Bay - 7-4
All things being equal one might divide 5 by 7 and conclude each team has a 71% chance of making the playoffs. All things are not equal. Atlanta is two games up on four of the teams and is a heavy favorite to make the playoffs as a division champ or wildcard. New Orleans and Chicago have better odds than the four 7-4 teams. This does not factor in the relative difficulty of the team's remaining schedules. I would say New Orleans has better than an 80% chance of making the playoffs, odds that could go significantly down if the Saints get upset this week.
It all certainly does make kwtpf exciting. This week's schedule contain's probably the biggest kwtpf game of the year to date for the Saints. People may be surprised to read it is not as easy a call as you think.
5-6 Houston @ 7-4 Philadelphia - It must be hard to be a Texans Football fan. They are the biggest tease team in football. They opened the season beating Indianapolis and followed that up with a win at Washington. Since then they have been 3-6. The good news for Houston is that they are in the AFC South, the kissing cousin of the NFC West, and are only one game out. Philadelphia has probably been the most consistently good NFC team over the last ten years. They are in a dogfight in the East (no pun intended Vick fans) and need to win this game. There is no guarantee that a wildcard team comes out of the East. Pull for Houston.
5-6 Washington @ 7-4 New York Giants - This is a big game. It is a virtual elimination game for the Redskins, which is good. They will have to pull out all the stops to beat the Giants. A few weeks ago some had crowned the Giants as the team to beat in the NFC. Back to back losses to division rivals Dallas and Philadelphia had the Giants reeling. They were fortunate to beat Jacksonville last week. Our wild card hopes would be significantly enhanced by a Redskin win. Pull hard for Washington.
8-3 Chicago @ 2-9 Detroit - These teams played each other the first game of the season and the end of the game set the tone for both teams for the rest of the year. Calvin Johnson caught a touchdown pass to beat Chicago that somehow turned out not to be a touchdown. Detroit would go on to find all kinds of other heartbreak ways to lose close games. The Bears found ways to win close games. After beating Philly last week the Bears have actually gotten some respect around the league. Few have wanted to believe they are for real. The fact is that even though he is arrogant and unlikeable, Jay Cutler can throw the rock. Pull for the football gods to smile on Detroit and give those guys a freaking break. The Lions would love to play the spoiler role in this game. The Bears are not who we thought they were.
4-7 San Francisco @ 7-4 Green Bay - Green Bay scares me. They have a solid team and should have beat Atlanta in Atlanta. I figure them to either win the North or to get one of the wild cards. If the Saints end up with a wild card, I would rather play in Chicago than Green Bay. The 49ers are still alive and have decent talent. It would be an upset for them to win, but not a huge upset. It would be huge for the Saints playoff hopes. Pull for 49ers.
9-2 Atlanta @ 7-4 Tampa Bay - If your goal is division crown and top seed, pull for Tampa. If you want to improve your overall chances of ensuring a playoff spot, pull for Atlanta. Heresy you say? At least hear me out. Should the Saints lose to Cincinnati (it could happen) and Tampa win, the Saints would suddenly be in a fight for their playoff lives. The Saints have a tough schedule going in with two road games in which they will likely be underdogs, at Baltimore and at Atlanta. A 2-3 finish for the Saints is very possible which would put them at 10-6. We do not want the final game of the season with Tampa to be for a playoff berth, we want Tampa eliminated before then. That being said, we still pull for Tampa. A Tampa win over Atlanta gives the Saints the tiebreak over Atlanta if the Saints beat Atlanta and Tampa (we would be tied head up with Atlanta and have a better division record). Put another way, if Tampa wins, the Saints control their destiny in the NFC South.
It will not be all bad if Tampa loses, but I like our chances in Atlanta in a game for the marbles.8-3 New Orleans @ 2-9 Cincinnati - Thank goodness for spell check. Is there a harder NFL city to spell than Cincinnati? No matter what I do I always end up spelling it with two t's. It's a hard team to figure out as well. They are one of the only teams in the NFL with a supposedly top notch quarterback that is doing so poorly. They did beat a tough Raven team and have had some close games with good teams. They have also stunk it up pretty bad. The Bengals lost close games to our big division foes, Atlanta and Tampa. The Saints have played down to their competition several times this year so this one is no gimme. On the bright side, the Saints are on a four game win streak and their consistency of play has improved. They are as healthy as they have been in a while. This is the type of game where you want to get up on the other team quickly (and as I write that I am trying to think of what type of game you would be in where you don't want to get up on your opponent quickly
). You get the point. The difference between 9-3 and 8-4 at this point is huge. Actually it's only a one game difference, but a 9-3 team is almost a lock for a playoff berth, an 8-4 team has less margin for error. We need this game to keep pace with the Falcons.
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