know who to pull for: week three (1 Viewer)

st dude

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So you don't think early games make that much of a difference? Consider these statistics. There are 32 NFL teams. Twelve make the playoffs or 37.5%.

Statistics suggest that half of the teams who go 1-0 make the playoffs. Since 16 teams are 1-0 after the first game, the odds are at least eight of those teams will make the playoffs.

Conversely only four of the sixteen 0-1 teams will make the playoffs. The odds drop to less than 15% for an 0-2 team and under 10% for an 0-3 team. At 2-0 the Saints have a statistical probability of making the playoffs. At 3-0 that probability becomes much more statisically significant. Should Tampa or Carolina drop to 0-3, their chances become very slim although they might go deep into the season before being actually eliminated.

Think about it this way. An 0-2 team has to go 10-4 just to get to 10-6. Its hard to go 10-4 and all that much harder for a team bad enough to start 0-2.

The Saints have had the exact start you would want. They have two wins over conference foes. The road victory over Philly is huge because we own the head up tie breaker on them and they are a team who figures to be in the conversation down the road. Division rivals the Bucs and Panthers find themselves in almost must win situations three games into the season.

Waymer did a nice job summarizing how we did with kwtpf last week. http://www.saintsreport.com/forums/showthread.php?t=122416&page=2 The big games for us were Tampa, Carolina, Green Bay, Dallas and Seattle all losing. This week has some great games.

0-2 KC at 1-1 Philadelphia - I just got back form Philly and it is a cool place to watch football. There were not a lot of happy campers in the stands. Its not a must game for them on the one hand, but on the other hand if they can not beat KC at home who can they beat? This has to be the easiest game on their schedule. In most all cases we want the AFC team to beat the NFC team so we are pulling for KC to upset the Eagles.

2-0 NY Giants at 0-2 Tampa - This is not as easy as it seems. Your first reaction might be to pull for NY to bury the hapless Bucs and take the Bucs out of the equation. Then you might think that the Giants are the much bigger threat and want Tampa to win. But then sometimes its actually good to have one team run away with their division like the Giants rather than have three 10-6 teams in the East. Follow all that? I have to say at this point pull for the Bucs as they look to be a really bad team who will not threaten for our division. Sometimes teams will pull a reversal on you; I just dont see it with the Bucs. I will therefore pull for the Bucs.

2-0 Atlanta at 1-1 New England - Do I really have to answer this one? Its the biggest kwtpf game of the week. And it comes on the heels of Atlanta looking every bit as good as advertised and the Patriots being written off by some in the media as being washed up. Should the Falcons and the Saints both win next week would one be wrong in calling them the two best teams in the NFL? Who would be demonstrably better? We really need New England to win this game. Its one at the beginning of the season you would mark down as a loss for Atlanta, now I am not so sure.

1-1 Green Bay at 0-2 St Louis - Not a great year to be an NFL fan in Missouri. I was thinking KC might be the worst team in football, but how can St Louis not be I that discussion. Green Bay has a good team that could easily be 2-0 or 0-2. We most certainly want the Rams to win. It could happen, but its about as likely as monkeys flying out of Dan in Lafayette's butt.

2-0 San Francisco at 2-0 Minnesota - 2-0 San Francisco? I had to go back and check their record to make sure that's right. I want them to beat Minnesota. If they do I become a 49er believer (Monkees song playing in background). Once I become a 49er believer, they get moved up the list of teams to pull against. This is a very intersting kwtpf game.

1-1 Washington at 0-2 Detroit - This is an intersting kwtpf game for an entirely different reason. Detroit is 0-18 over their last two seasons. Can you imagine the meltdown in DC if the Redskins lose to Detroit? After the way the Redskins have played this season, would it surprise you if they lose? Not me and I hope they do.

1-1 Chicago at 1-1 Seattle - This is the kwtpf game that I think will generate the most discussion in terms of who we want to win, particularly if you take the "I hate the Bears and ain't ever pulling for them" mentality out of the equation. The kwtpf book would say when in doubt in a game like this take the visiting team. I cant do that, I guess I have the "I hate the Bears and their whiny new qb" mentality.

2-0 Indy at 1-1 Arizona - About as easy as they come. We want Indy to drop arizona to 1-2.

0-2 Carolina at 1-1 Dallas - Go back and read the capsule for the Giants/Bucs game and change the names. The only difference here is I do think Carolina is still a threat. They have had slow starts and stormed back. I think in this one I will pull for ...gasp...Dallas. An 0-3 start for Carolina and Tampa would go a long way to making the NFC South a two horse race. There is a very good argument here that in the end dalls will be our bigger threat. This is a good game for the Saints either way it turns out. I take back what I said about the Bears/Seahawks game generating the most discussion. This game will.

2-0 New Orleans at 1-1 Buffalo - Did I just type 2-0 New Orleans? Somebody pinch me. Buffalo blew a close game to the Patriots and beat Tampa easily. That puts them in the category of a beatable team who will beat you if you do not play well. If the Saints are as good as we think they are they are better than the Bills. Vegas has us a six point favorite. Wow. The Saints a six point favorite in an NFL road game? When was the last time that happened?

Last man standing games:

Atlanta +4 at New England

Chicago -2 & 1/2 at Seattle

Did you take the Giants and the Falcons last week? I did. :D If so you are still standing and can still play. I have the following still standing, let me know if I missed you.

st dude
mikaloyd
BigBuddy
nps6724
waldo22

Did I miss anyone? I will take New England and Seattle. Once we finish this game we will start another.
 

dat dam dog

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I appreciate this stuff and agree with everything you said.

Until I got to the end. Is this a knockout pool?

Whatever.

I thought this stuff was common knowledge, until I talked to my Steeler friend earlier this week (yes, at a bar).

He laughed when I told him I was unhappy Pitt didn't win that one over the Bears, and he laughed more more because he knows I don't much like the Steelers.

I explained the Bears were NFC and Pitt AFC, and yada, and he caught on.

Our GB friend who came in, well the Pitt guy gave him heck for not beating Cincy, and he didn't catch on. When explained, he understood why an AFC team wanted the NFC win over the AFC team, in the same division with Pitt no less.

I'm too long winded here, but thanks.


ddd
 

JustaSharkie

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Great Post, Brother. Yes, friends and neighbors, by all means know who to pull for. I concur with this post, 100%.



note: Trolling Bills fans can go pound sand.
 

davidstvz

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I want Carolina and the Bucs to win. We will pound them down the stretch and take them out of the equation ourselves. We want Giants and Dallas to lose a few extra games to make sure we get the first seed. Our road to the super bowl will be much easier with Dome Field Advantage.
 

rlmarine

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Thinking us, the Giants, and the Vikes will be the only undefeated NFC teams after Sunday. Its already a 2 horse race imo, but the Panthers and Bucs should both be 0-3 so it'll be nice after only 3 weeks to only have to beat 1 other team to ensure the easiest path to the playoffs.
 

Merl

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Didn't find any I disagreed with. GREAT JOB!
 

SaintsFanInLA

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EXCELLENT POST!! Once again, good job bro.

But I am of course pulling for the Giants to beat the Bucs. As I see it, the first order of business is to secure winning our division, then after that home-field advantage throughout the Playoffs. I just can't bring myself to pull for the Bucs.

Dallas over Carolina but I want Jake to play well. As long as he plays reasonably well, they will keep him in at QB and I want him to stay at QB because I believe that the Panthers are a worse team with him than without him.

I definitely want the Lions to beat Washington for the sheer meltdown factor. High Drama at it's finest. We haven't heard the name of the Uber rich young Skins owner, Daniel Schneider(sp?) but if that is the first Lions victory, believe you me, we will.

I think that the Saints will once again, totally dominate and embarass another opponent, only to be met with skepticism about how the Bills had key injuries and what not. Prepare yourselves for a little love but with caveats from the media. That is, unless we drop a 50 on them and Brees throws for another 5-6 TDs.


BTW, being a life-long Saints' Fan, I STILL HATE THE 49ERS AND CAN NOT ROOT FOR THEM!!!

But I also want to play Minnesota in the Playoffs again for REVENGE for last year's debacle and our first few playoff games against them where they demolished us like 44-3 each time.
 

the-commish

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My big game is Falcons at Pats. I just want the Pats to get back on track, at home, against Atlanta. Wes Welker (one of the best slot receivers in the game) is coming back this week, which should provide Tom Brady a security blanket. Considering all of the starters they lost on D (Vrabel, Seymour, Bruschi, etc) they have held up reasonably well. It's the offense that has let the Pats down (they haven't really had a running game since they had Cory Dillon). But they are at home, so maybe they will pull one out for the home crowd.

The other game I will be watching closely is Jets and Titans. Tennessee at 0-2 have to win this one. I hope the Jets win, however, and come into the Dome in Week 4 undefeated.
 

jimrip

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I will have to pull for the Panthers to beat Dallas because we control 2 games with the Panthers and only one with Dallas. If the Panthers can beat them, that ensures 2 losses for each.

I know.. weird way to look at it.. :anon:
 

Galbreath34

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I'm with you on most, but I expect the Giants to stumble at some point, and I'd love the hype of 4-0 Saints versus 5-0 Giants. Technically, we should always root for the decent or better teams in the NFC to lose, but every now and then you have to go nuts.
 

Eeyore

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You want Tampa and Carolina to lose.

More distance between the Saints and them.

Division first then worry about other stuff.

The Saints will have the opportunity to beat the Giants and the Cowboys during the season to get possible tie-breakers.
 

44slayer

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I will have to pull for the Panthers to beat Dallas because we control 2 games with the Panthers and only one with Dallas. If the Panthers can beat them, that ensures 2 losses for each.

I know.. weird way to look at it.. :anon:

I agree, we need to pull for Carolina to beat Dallas for conference record reasons. We can take care of Carolina on our own. On top of that, Carolina will be a non factor by mid season anyway - so them beating Dallas does us a favor - the South will be a 2 horse race regardless.
 

BigBuddy

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Great post. I'll be cheering for carolina, though. I basically just want Dallas to lose every game this season at home in that new stadium.

as for the elimination game, i'll take a couple road teams this week.

San Francisco +7 at Minnesota
and
Chicago -2 at Seattle.
 

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