Match Up KWTPF Week #10 – “It’s a new dawn, it's a new day, and I’m feeling good!” (1 Viewer)

[saint_drago]

Why is the NFC west always in our way haha.
Last thing I want to do is go play Seahawks or 49's in the playoffs again.

I just looked up the toughest remaining schedules and 3 of the top 5 teams are from the NFC West according to various sites.

1. Seahawks
2. 49ers
3. Titans
4. falcons
5. Rams

The sites differ slightly but they all have the Seahawks and 49ers at the top. This is good news for the Saints. We get to watch as the NFC West devours itself. I think the 49ers finish with at least 4 losses.

 

[ndcc]

Panthers @ Packers:

This is a no-win OR no-lose proposition (depending on how you look at it).

Since I see the Saints at least splitting with the Panthers, I'm leaning a bit more for them to get the "W" vs. the Packers, and knock Green Bay down a notch. That's my BIG PICTURE approach.

JMO

 

[Merl]

Draft positioning is the only think to look at in those first two games, so I’m pulling for the Giants and Bucs. We need the Jets to keep pace with their NFC competitors, particularly the Falcons. And I’m getting worried the Bucs will have a real shot at Burrow or Tua.

I disagree. Until a division opponent is mathematically eliminated from catching the Saints you root for them to LOSE against non-division opponents. This is the case with the Bucs. They are 5.5 games back with 8 to go so that still have a slim chance to get ahead of the Saints by season's end. Also, draft position means little. It is what you do with the picks that matter.

 

[Bill]

Great post and I agree with most of your games but I'm not sure on Packers/Panthers. We control our own destiny when it comes to the division and we have a lead on the kitties. And god forbid we have to go to Lambeau in January. Yikes.

But on the other hand the Packers have some tough teams left on their schedule so they might continue to fall back to earth. They have the Panthers at home this week, a bye, and then they go on the road to face the 49ers. They also have road games against the Vikings and Lions to finish the season. They barely beat both teams at home.

You're right... the Packers/Panthers game can be tough to pick mainly because we really don't know what to expect from Green Bay down the stretch. While it would be great to just assume that we are going to handle Carolina on our own, it's hard to put that into the equation weeks before we get that chance.

In the meantime the Panties are our nearest competition in the division, and we need to take the division as soon as possible before we can think about the worry about getting a Round #1 Bye in the playoffs.

But nothing works better than for us just to win every game the rest of the season, no matter what the Packers do from here.

 

[saint_drago]

Also, draft position means little. It is what you do with the picks that matter.

This is true but at the same time, not true at all. Draft position is everything when a team is looking for a franchise QB. The Bucs will probably be looking to draft a franchise QB so by all means Bucs, win you a few more game just for the lulz. Let Miami and Cincinnati worry about getting the best QBs prospects.

 

[Bill]

This is true but at the same time, not true at all. Draft position is everything when a team is looking for a franchise QB. The Bucs will probably be looking to draft a franchise QB so by all means Bucs, win you a few more game just for the lulz. Let Miami and Cincinnati worry about getting the best QBs prospects.

I'll just say that there will be some good things to consider no matter who takes this game. But as long as McCaffrey is having a big season the Panties are a threat to us.

 

[Jameth]

I disagree. Until a division opponent is mathematically eliminated from catching the Saints you root for them to LOSE against non-division opponents. This is the case with the Bucs. They are 5.5 games back with 8 to go so that still have a slim chance to get ahead of the Saints by season's end. Also, draft position means little. It is what you do with the picks that matter.

A 2-6 team has never made it to the postseason, and I don’t see Winston as the first guy to get it done. They’re not catching us.

 

[JvilleJoe]

Bill glad your hand is doing better than expected and as always thanks for focusing members on key games to follow. I really want to see SF get beat by Seattle which would take them down a notch.

 

[Bill]

Bill glad your hand is doing better than expected and as always thanks for focusing members on key games to follow. I really want to see SF get beat by Seattle which would take them down a notch.

Stitches coming out next week!!!

 

[Consigliere]

Here is a helpful site: http://www.tankathon.com/nfl/remaining_schedule_strength

Panthers will have four hard games left: Seahawks, Colts, Saints x2.
- Assume they split with us and split the others, and win all their easy games, they will finish 10-5 but for the Packers-Panthers game.
- They have one loss in the division, so we beat them in a tiebreaker.

Packers will have two hard games left: 49ers and Vikings
- Assume they split those two games, and win all their easy games, they will finish 12-3 but for the Packers-Panthers game.
- They have one loss in the AFC, so they could beat us in a tiebreaker.

So, it will probably be either:

Packers 13-3
Panthers 10-6

or

Packers 12-4
Panthers 11-5

It seems that we are very likely to win the division even if the Panthers are 11-5, especially because we win the tiebreaker.

But, it may be hard to beat the Packers in ceding if they are 13-3 as they would win the tiebreaker. And we don't want to go there in January.

Therefore, we should root for the Panthers.

 

[Bill]

Here is a helpful site: http://www.tankathon.com/nfl/remaining_schedule_strength

Panthers will have four hard games left: Seahawks, Colts, Saints x2.
Packers will have two hard games left: 49ers and Vikings

Panthers have one loss in the division, so we beat them in a tiebreaker.
Packers have one loss in the AFC, so they could beat us in a tiebreaker.

So, I think we need the Packers to lose, more than we need the Panthers to lose.

That is a great website to consider in making these picks in the future.
However the two things that it doesn't consider are: the actual records of the teams (particularly within the divisions) and what determines how strong the remaining teams actually are.

In other words, those stronger remaining teams may only have a good record because the first half of their season may have been filled with weaker teams. But I will definitely be consulting that chart in the weeks to come.

 

[Madmarsha]

Not that it matters but I just found out that Kelly Stafford's husband is out. Bears may actually win this game.

 

[northshore_mike]

Here is a helpful site: http://www.tankathon.com/nfl/remaining_schedule_strength

Panthers will have four hard games left: Seahawks, Colts, Saints x2.
- Assume they split with us and split the others, and win all their easy games, they will finish 10-5 but for the Packers-Panthers game.
- They have one loss in the division, so we beat them in a tiebreaker.

Packers will have two hard games left: 49ers and Vikings
- Assume they split those two games, and win all their easy games, they will finish 12-3 but for the Packers-Panthers game.
- They have one loss in the AFC, so they could beat us in a tiebreaker.

So, it will probably be either:

Packers 13-3
Panthers 10-6

or

Packers 12-4
Panthers 11-5

It seems that we are very likely to win the division even if the Panthers are 11-5, especially because we win the tiebreaker.

But, it may be hard to beat the Packers in ceding if they are 13-3 as they would win the tiebreaker. And we don't want to go there in January.

Therefore, we should root for the Panthers.

After today's Saints game, I think we NEED to pull hard AGAINST the Panties (not for the Cheeseheads). Assuming we win our division is a reach. If Panthers win today, we will be only 1 game ahead with a lot of football left to play.

 

[Bill]

After today's Saints game, I think we NEED to pull hard AGAINST the Panties (not for the Cheeseheads). Assuming we win our division is a reach. If Panthers win today, we will be only 1 game ahead with a lot of football left to play.

It's a crying shame that we now need someone to help us to keep the two game lead in the division. But now we need the Packers to help us do just that.
It was a bad time to lay the biggest egg of the season.

 

[Bill]

It's closer now but I still disagree. There's a huge difference between the #2 seed and the #3 seed. We need to root for #2 which today is the Panthers. We'll need to beat them anyway.

Well right now the Panthers are looking like the better team at Lambeau Field.