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DC did a press conference and basically said they are not using the optimistic IHME model. IHME calls for a mid April peak. DC is using CHIME which calls for a July 1 peak. DC just ripped IHME in the press conference and the federal government’s use of it to suggest dates. IHME overestimates the effects of social distancing and states first impacted by Covid-19 are showing this. The Mayor just confirmed the April 27 reopening for schools and government functions is not going to happen. Agency budget cuts (furlough?) are coming. DC projects 90,000 total cases through the end of the year which is a 13% infection rate.
I predict we will see articles and journals about how IHME’s use of China’s data and lack of transparency contributed to under-preparation.
I’ve been saying that July 1 is probably the earliest people in the DMV are returning to offices. At this point, I think August 1. By this I mean if you can telework, expect to do so until then.
CHIME (“Covid-19 Hospital Impact Model for Epidemics”), built by Penn’s Chivers and others in “predictive healthcare,” is a basic epidemiological tool of infectious disease spread called a SIR model.
Tracked down some more info:No idea how thick a tea towel is, but how difficult would it be to breathe through 2 layers of them?
The viral load was undetectable after transfusion in seven patients who had previous viremia. No severe adverse effects were observed. This study showed CP therapy was well tolerated and could potentially improve the clinical outcomes through neutralizing viremia in severe COVID-19 cases. The optimal dose and time point, as well as the clinical benefit of CP therapy, needs further investigation in larger well-controlled trials.