[Merged] WWL: Saints Can Clinch Playoff Berth with Victory Over the Falcons (1 Viewer)

DerrickB

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GW93

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According to this, a win Sunday guarantees at least a Wild Card:

Saints can clinch playoff spot by beating Falcons

A 10th win puts us ahead of all 7-loss teams, and the best CHI or SF can do at this point is 10 wins (and we have the tie breakers over them). That would leave only the Vikings as a threat, but the Vikes would have to run the table — beat us AND beat Tampa Bay. But that would also secure the division for us. If TB beats the Vikings, it locks up the WC.

The article doesn’t address what would happen if MN and TB tie, though, and as usual, I’m too lazy to look it up.


EDIT: OK, so I looked it up (not that it was all that hard, the article made it pretty obvious). A MN-TB tie would mean MN at best would be 9-6-1, so a half-game behind the Saints in that scenario. So if the Saints win Sunday, they’re in.
 
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GW93

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D’oh! My thread came a minute after yours! Mods, please merge.

The article doesn’t address a MN-TB tie, though.

EDIT: A MN-TB tie would mean MN at best would be 9-6-1, so a half-game behind the Saints in that scenario. So if the Saints win Sunday, they’re in.
 

jdanton14

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Saints magic number to win the division is 2. Tampa has their bye this week (shocking that the NFL gave Brady a super late bye), and the Saints can't win two games, so we can't clinch this weekend. I think we can clinch a wildcard with a win, but I haven't done that math yet.
 

GW93

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Saints magic number to win the division is 2. Tampa has their bye this week (shocking that the NFL gave Brady a super late bye), and the Saints can't win two games, so we can't clinch this weekend. I think we can clinch a wildcard with a win, but I haven't done that math yet.
Yeah, that’s what the article was about — clinching a WC berth, not division.
 

Gumbo's Dad

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Minnesota has been our playoff kryptonite for decades. I hope it does not come down to us beating Minnesota later this season. However, this is the first time Sean beat the Broncos, so hopefully the defense has the answer to Minnesota this year. Plus, we have the additional weapon of Sanders, so Drew (assuming he is back by then) does not rely too much on CGM as he has in the past in the playoffs. (Fingers crossed.)
 

GW93

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And the Giants are currently the 4th seed in the NFC with a 4-7 record.
I think everyone else in division contention is locked out of 4th seed b/c that’s all the NFC Least will be able to get :smilielol:
 
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3+ way tie doesn't work the way the article described. Simply winning h2h doesn't eliminate the other team.

Chicago can finish at 10-6 (8-4 conference) as well as GB could finish at 10-6 (8-4 conference). Then it'll be strength of victory and chicago may win the division.

That would leave a 3+ way tie with NO - GB and whomever in West. If it's not SF, then the 3 way wildcard be on strength of victory and NO could still be eliminated.

2 more wins.
 
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According to PlayoffStatus, the Bears also have to lose too in order for the Saints to clinch. It'll be interesting to see if the Lions are different now that Patricia is gone.

All is sort of a moot point. Right now the Saints driving force must be the #1 seed, homefield, and the bye. And that's not only going to take an Atlanta win, but close to running the table to accomplish.

SFIAH
 

bigdaddysaints

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Minnesota has been our playoff kryptonite for decades. I hope it does not come down to us beating Minnesota later this season. However, this is the first time Sean beat the Broncos, so hopefully the defense has the answer to Minnesota this year. Plus, we have the additional weapon of Sanders, so Drew (assuming he is back by then) does not rely too much on CGM as he has in the past in the playoffs. (Fingers crossed.)
Except that one time...lol
 

Super

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Clinch or not. We're looking pretty good
 

northshore_mike

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3+ way tie doesn't work the way the article described. Simply winning h2h doesn't eliminate the other team.

Chicago can finish at 10-6 (8-4 conference) as well as GB could finish at 10-6 (8-4 conference). Then it'll be strength of victory and chicago may win the division.

That would leave a 3+ way tie with NO - GB and whomever in West. If it's not SF, then the 3 way wildcard be on strength of victory and NO could still be eliminated.

2 more wins.

Playing around with Playoff Machine, I was able to find a combo where Saints win this coming weekend, but still miss the playoffs. FooDoo was exactly right -- it's a 3 way tie situation, and has Chicago beating GB for the NFC North.

Playoff Machine scenario

The key to this scenario is Chicago winning out, and beating out the Packers on tiebreaker at 10-6. Rams win the West on tiebreaker over Hawks at 11-5, which also fills the 1st WC. Saints end up in 3 way tie with Packers and Cards. No head to head sweep applies, but we lose out on 3 way tiebreaker and miss playoffs.

Playoff Status has us clinching with a win, and Bears loss or tie. In this case, Bears would NOT be able to reach 10-6, Packers win the North, and the above scenario cannot happen.
 

HoustonSaint68

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However, this is the first time Sean beat the Broncos, so hopefully the defense has the answer to Minnesota this year.
More hopefully, the O-line has the answer to Minnesota this year.
 
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That's one goal that would be taken care of this season. After that, it would be winning the South and securing the number one seed.
WWL has a solid breakdown of how things can occur going forward.

If the Saints beat the falcons they would be 10-2 and 5-0 in the South with 3 games left & one more division opponent to play. TB is 7-5 and 2-2 in the division so by my math the saints would also win the South with a win in the ATL.
 

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