Michigan primary [Romney projected winner] (1 Viewer)

Severum

10001110101
Staff member
Administrator
Tech-Admin
Joined
Jul 8, 2001
Messages
10,585
Reaction score
9,115
Age
39
Location
Bellingham, WA
Offline
NBC and CNN have called it for Romney. Romney really needed this win after all he invested in the state.

Current results are 37% Romey, 31% McCain, 17% Huckabee, and 6% Paul with 10% reporting.
 

MLU

Please respect my decision!
Joined
Apr 28, 1999
Messages
53,302
Reaction score
17,921
Location
Mesa, AZ
Offline
That's funny. The few times that I heard him talk in passing on TV, he was making big promises that he couldn't possibly keep. That gives him a 6 point win in his birth state?

He's doomed...
 

Taurus

More than 15K posts served!
VIP Contributor
Joined
Dec 20, 1997
Messages
25,097
Reaction score
13,209
Age
51
Location
Yacolt, WA
Offline
It's too bad for Mitt that Utah doesn't have an early primary.
 
OP
OP
Severum

Severum

10001110101
Staff member
Administrator
Tech-Admin
Joined
Jul 8, 2001
Messages
10,585
Reaction score
9,115
Age
39
Location
Bellingham, WA
Offline
He should have an advantage in the Nevada caucus due to the ~10% Mormon population. SC is currently a three way race and FL is a four way. McCain could've surged ahead with a MI win and gone into super Tuesday with two or three more wins. Now there could be three different victors with a drawn-out nomination battle and increasingly fractured party. Kos must be rejoicing.
 

MSUSousaphone

Owning the CONCACAF
VIP Contributor
Joined
Aug 26, 2004
Messages
15,655
Reaction score
5,693
Age
36
Location
Lake Charles
Offline
I don't know if the party is getting fractured....

It seems like the feud between the candidates is heating up but I don't know if its feeding over to the voters. As a registered Republican, it hasn't changed my opinion at all....yet.
 

SaintsFan11

Allons à Lafayette
Joined
Jul 8, 2001
Messages
8,565
Reaction score
853
Location
Lafayette, Louisiana
Offline
Could this go all the way to the convention? Huckabee will likely win in South Carolina (I doubt his recent Constitutional wackjob statement will hurt him there) and then ride the wave through Florida (ditto), but that's where it stops. The big states won't vote for him.

Maybe none of the candidates secure enough delegates and the thing has to be brokered?

That would be fun to watch, and I don't mean that in a trainwreck sort of way.
 

Richard

Administrator
Staff member
Administrator
Joined
Jul 11, 2001
Messages
18,411
Reaction score
7,749
Age
65
Location
Laurel, MS
Offline
Now there could be three different victors with a drawn-out nomination battle and increasingly fractured party. Kos must be rejoicing.
Maybe. But NBC was pointing out that the 1992 Democratic primaries were just as garbled and Clinton emerged to win it all. I wouldn't be surprised at a similar result, especially if Hillary wins nomination among the Democrats. I would like to see Thompson win South Carolina and Rudy win in Florida, so it will be really messed up going into Feb. 5. :ezbill:
 

NCSaint

Guest
Offline
That's funny. The few times that I heard him talk in passing on TV, he was making big promises that he couldn't possibly keep. That gives him a 6 point win in his birth state?

He's doomed...

My feelings exactly. Yesterday it was the "federal dollars to bail out the car industry" that caught my attention. I sure hope he is doomed.
 

bclemms

More than 15K posts served!
Joined
Jul 16, 2005
Messages
29,092
Reaction score
33,832
Age
11
Location
Jackson, ms
Online
The worst possible scenario would be Clinton vs Romney for the election.

Since it is the worst possible scenario it will be the one that is most likely to happen. People are stupid.
 

TPS

Guest
Joined
Aug 15, 2000
Messages
36,032
Reaction score
54
Age
55
Location
da boyah
Offline
>>The worst possible scenario would be Clinton vs Romney for the election.

Actually that wouldn't be a bad scenario for independents (except in as much as I will not vote for Romney and 99% won't vote for Hillary). Cue Independent Runs - Bloomberg probably.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/16/nyregion/16bloomberg.html?ref=nyregion


Unity '08 who was looking to draft a Democrat/Republican "Unity Ticket" is now behind Bloomberg as well.

http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/01/15/politics/horserace/entry3717723.shtml

TPS
 

'79 Saints

Guest
Joined
Apr 22, 2002
Messages
3,119
Reaction score
0
Age
51
Location
The Negative Zone
Offline
Actually, that's also what the Republican base is hoping for.. a Clinton nomination will assure that a Republican will be elected president.

And Hillary has the nomination locked up... take it to the bank. She has the money and the ability to get the vote out for her.
 

TPS

Guest
Joined
Aug 15, 2000
Messages
36,032
Reaction score
54
Age
55
Location
da boyah
Offline
>>a Clinton nomination will assure that a Republican will be elected president.

While no doubt, Hillary would run a far better Administration than anything we've seen since, uh, well Bill was president, don't be so sure. There are millions of Americans who will not vote for Hillary (and not just your usual hate-washed victims of the VRWC). There have to be an equal number of Americans who will not vote for Romney. No way in hell that guy gets my vote for anything. I don't like his ridiculously slick facade or message, and the fact that he's remade his "image" and his very policies to play to the dumbed down nature of the American electorate x'd him off my list before anyone else but Tancredo was off of it. Hillary's best move if she is the nominee as you suggest would be to add Obama (or another African American who is not particularly polarizing) on as VP to keep up the momentum among the youth and the black voters. They've already brought her to Jekyl Island so don't automatically assume that just because you and I will not vote for her that she won't get a record number of votes. At the same time, a Romney v. Hillary general election (assuming no energized independent run) could turn off a lot of voters who decide to stay home. You never know...

TPS
 

saintfan-n-alex

Super Forum Fanatic
Joined
Feb 16, 2005
Messages
9,517
Reaction score
2,930
Online
Actually, that's also what the Republican base is hoping for.. a Clinton nomination will assure that a Republican will be elected president.

And Hillary has the nomination locked up... take it to the bank. She has the money and the ability to get the vote out for her.
only if Dems vote against their party so as not to vote for Hillary, and all Reps vote Rep - there maybe some that choose not to vote due to the choices.

if its Romney is the Rep. candidate that puts those who see his religious affiliations as a reason not to vote for him left with no vote or a vote for a non-Mormon

"Hillary's best move if she is the nominee as you suggest would be to add Obama (or another African American who is not particularly polarizing) on as VP" - many feel the Clintons are the best political candidate for African Americans

- though you make a good point as to who the VP candidates will be across the board - as it seems none of the top candidates want to be VP, though that maybe the best way to win in 2016 (assuming the next president goes 2 terms).

has there ever been a case where the 2 top candidates teamed up after the nomination?
 

JimEverett

More than 15K posts served!
Joined
Mar 18, 2001
Messages
24,700
Reaction score
7,634
Offline
If McCain gets the nod then he beats Clinton or Obama

If Huckabee gets the nod then Clinton wins, and Obama might

If Romney gets the nod then Clinton and Obama have a decent shot

If Giulliani wins then he beats both

If Thompson wins then I think he wins against both, but it would be tight.

The problem with Clinton and Obama is that they do not change the electoral map. Democrats have to spend more resources in "blue states" than Republicans have to spend in "red states" because the margin is much less in the blue states.
 

TPS

Guest
Joined
Aug 15, 2000
Messages
36,032
Reaction score
54
Age
55
Location
da boyah
Offline
>>has there ever been a case where the 2 top candidates teamed up after the nomination?

1980 GOP and 1992 Democrat without looking at who the actual "top" candidates were. And possibly 2004 (can't remember if Kerry and Edwards were the actual top 2 or not). There are probably others.

>>The problem with Clinton and Obama is that they do not change the electoral map. Democrats have to spend more resources in "blue states" than Republicans have to spend in "red states" because the margin is much less in the blue states.

I'm not so sure. Depending on who is out there for the democrats, this election very well could be won in the now-called purple states. Don't assume Ohio will stay red anymore based on the GOP ethics issues. Virginia probably will, but could be slightly in play. IMHO, Ohio, Iowa, Minnesota, Arizona, New Mexico (maybe), Arkansas, West Virginia, possibly Indiana (probably not), Virginia, Colorado, Missouri and Nevada are where this election will be won or lost. Guiliani has the ability to draw from any of these states, and like you said, make other "blue" states at least competitive.

It could be an interesting election and might break most starkly based on age or gender depending on who wins the respective nominations.

TPS
 

SaintsFan11

Allons à Lafayette
Joined
Jul 8, 2001
Messages
8,565
Reaction score
853
Location
Lafayette, Louisiana
Offline
If McCain gets the nod then he beats Clinton or Obama

If Huckabee gets the nod then Clinton wins, and Obama might

If Romney gets the nod then Clinton and Obama have a decent shot

If Giulliani wins then he beats both

If Thompson wins then I think he wins against both, but it would be tight.

The problem with Clinton and Obama is that they do not change the electoral map. Democrats have to spend more resources in "blue states" than Republicans have to spend in "red states" because the margin is much less in the blue states.
I disagree completely.

The Republican candidates, IMO, from strongest to weakest against the Democrats are:

McCain
Giuliani
Romney
Thompson
Huckabee


McCain is a 50/50 shot to beat a Democrat
Giuliani would fare better against Hillary where the likeability factor will be neutralized
Romney is the GOP version of Kerry, not exciting and probably can't win
Thompson needs a miracle in the form of a major misstep by a Dem
Huckabee has no shot, sorry


As for the electoral map, I think it's much more fluid than you.

McCain and Giuliani sacrifice the Evangelicals and therefore put several red states into play. Romney and Thompson sacrifice Hispanics and therefore put several red states into play. Huckabee can't win a big state, and "flyover country" won't work.

You also have to figure that many of the swing states will go Democratic (Missouri, the rust belt, some western states like Colorado, Arizona and Nevada which have been trending closer). The general election will feature any of the Democratic candidates running against the Bush Presidency which will win them a lot of support.

It should be well known that I support Obama, but would not support Hillary, but I think either will likely beat any of the GOP candidates except for McCain which would be a toss-up (although he has said a lot of things lately which will work against him). The wild-card is a terrorist attack that galvanizes support around Bush and negates the anti-Bush rhetoric.
 

Create an account or login to comment

You must be a member in order to leave a comment

Create account

Create an account on our community. It's easy!

Log in

Already have an account? Log in here.

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Users: 0, Guests: 1)



New Orleans Saints Twitter Feed

Headlines

Saints Headlines (Official Site)

Top Bottom