SaintsFan11
Semper annus alter erit.
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If McCain gets the nod then he beats Clinton or Obama
If Huckabee gets the nod then Clinton wins, and Obama might
If Romney gets the nod then Clinton and Obama have a decent shot
If Giulliani wins then he beats both
If Thompson wins then I think he wins against both, but it would be tight.
The problem with Clinton and Obama is that they do not change the electoral map. Democrats have to spend more resources in "blue states" than Republicans have to spend in "red states" because the margin is much less in the blue states.
I disagree completely.
The Republican candidates, IMO, from strongest to weakest against the Democrats are:
McCain
Giuliani
Romney
Thompson
Huckabee
McCain is a 50/50 shot to beat a Democrat
Giuliani would fare better against Hillary where the likeability factor will be neutralized
Romney is the GOP version of Kerry, not exciting and probably can't win
Thompson needs a miracle in the form of a major misstep by a Dem
Huckabee has no shot, sorry
As for the electoral map, I think it's much more fluid than you.
McCain and Giuliani sacrifice the Evangelicals and therefore put several red states into play. Romney and Thompson sacrifice Hispanics and therefore put several red states into play. Huckabee can't win a big state, and "flyover country" won't work.
You also have to figure that many of the swing states will go Democratic (Missouri, the rust belt, some western states like Colorado, Arizona and Nevada which have been trending closer). The general election will feature any of the Democratic candidates running against the Bush Presidency which will win them a lot of support.
It should be well known that I support Obama, but would not support Hillary, but I think either will likely beat any of the GOP candidates except for McCain which would be a toss-up (although he has said a lot of things lately which will work against him). The wild-card is a terrorist attack that galvanizes support around Bush and negates the anti-Bush rhetoric.