Mock Draft 1.0 Feel free to rip it apart... (1 Viewer)

REALCHRISM

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A few observations:

I truly believe that Gholston, with a great workout, could emerge as a candidate for the #1 pick. In fact, I think the #1 pick will come down to either Ryan, Gholston, or Chris Long. Long makes absolute sense for the Dolphins if everything remains constant. But I do not project him there because the Dolphins only have John Beck signed at QB. If I am not mistaken, Cleo Lemon is a FA and they just cut Trent Green. They could take Long and opt for a QB in round 2, but that's playing very dangerous with the most important position on the team.

Look for two guys, Derrick Harvey and Phillip Merling, to go higher than expected. In fact, I would not be surprised if one of them cracked the top 10. I actually have Merling doing just that.

Do not be surprised if a guy like Keith Rivers or Kenny Phillips fall into round 2. In fact, I could see Phillips doing just that athough he does not in this mock. The thing with Rivers is, I believe he is a top 10 talent. But at the same time, if he slips past New Orleans and Buffalo, I could very easily see him dropping to the end of round 1 or beginning of round 2. A team like Jacksonville or San Francisco could snatch him up. Heck, even the Chargers might be interested in playing him inside in a 3-4. Stranger things have happened.

With a lot of the picks, I listed other guys who could draw consideration. I expect there to be a fair share of trading come draft day and may have a future mock with trades. I wanted to make sure I got a pre-combine draft done and so here it is for you guys to rip apart.

1. Dolphins-- Matt Ryan, QB Miami will be tempted to trade down with the Falcons but in the end, I think they will select Ryan to be the new face of the franchise. Chris Long will draw consideration and Vernon Gholston could be a wildcard. Some might project Jake Long here but if the Dolphins sign a guy like Flozell Adams, that lessens the need at OT in the first round.

2. Rams-- Jake Long, OT Will consider taking Chris Long, but cannot pass on Jake. Pace is 32 and has been hurt the last three seasons. The Rams watched the improvement that the Browns made after selecting Thomas and will try to emulate that success by taking another highly regarded lineman.

3. Raiders-- Chris Long, DE The Raiders are hoping that Chris Long will be just as great as his father and carry on that great Raider tradition that has been more like Raider turmoil as of late. The Raiders could also take a look at one of the DTs.

4. Falcons-- Darren McFadden, RB Should go DT, but will undoubtedly look to make a splash that will bring fans back to the Georgia Dome. Dorsey and Ellis will draw heavy consideration here and could be the pick if the Falcons decide to do the right thing instead of choosing the sexy pick.

5. Chiefs-- Ryan Clady, OT This team cannot function without help on the O-line. The investment in Larry Johnson won't pay off without adding help on the O-line. The Chiefs might be interested in one of the DTs, but they have more pressing needs on the o-line.

6. Jets-- Vernon Gholston, LB/DE This could go as high as #1. The Jets will consider Sedrick Ellis, but I do not believe he fits their version of the 3-4 defense as a two-gap NT.

7. Patriots-- Sedrick Ellis, DT This pick could come as a surprise to many but it just seems like Bellichek. I could see McKelvin but the Patriots do not always go with what is obvious. Ellis is a better fit for a 4-3 defense in my opinion but is capable of playing the NT position. I am sure that Bellichek would find ways to utilize his skills. I could see Derrick Harvey drawing some consideration here as the Patriots would like to add an edge rusher. Gholston would make sense if he falls here.

8. Ravens-- Leodis McKelvin, CB The Ravens could go CB, QB or OL. And you could never rule out a front seven pick. But McKelvin makes sense. With their new coach being John Harbaugh, I could definitely see them targeting a DB. If McKelvin has a great workout, he'll solidify a top ten grade. Brian Brohm could be an option although I think they will try to trade for McNabb.

9. Bengals--Phillip Merling, DE Many of you expected to see Glenn Dorsey's name here. And I was tempted to go with Dorsey but the rumors continue to be that the Bengals will switch to a 4-3. In fact, this is the reason it is believed that they did not franchise Justin Smith. Merling fits perfectly into the 3-4 defense and, while he might be a surprise to some, will be a solid pick. Let us keep in mind that each year, there are picks that catch us by surprise.

10. SAINTS--Glenn Dorsey, DT Dorsey will never fall to ten, I already hear the criticisms. That could be true, it could be false. I can definitely see the draft playing out this way. The critical thing to note here is that I am not projecting any trades for this first draft, so that changes a few dynamics of how the picks might actually end up falling on draft day. A trade or two could easily alter these picks. But if the draft had no trades, I think it could very well fall this way with Dorsey landing at #10 to the Saints.

11. Bills-- Malcolm Kelly, WR Bills need a big WR. Will consider taking a LB like Rivers, but I think that Kelly is the pick here.

12. Broncos-- Jeff Otah, OT The Broncos would like to have either Clady or Ellis but they will likely be gone by the time the Broncos are on the clock. The Broncos could be a team that looks to trade up if the right guy is still on the board. Otah makes sense here as the Broncos need help at the tackle position. Don't rule out Chris Williams or Keith Rivers.

13. Panthers-- Kentwan Balmer, DT The Panthers have grown weary with Kris Jenkins and could opt for the local kid in Balmer. Balmer is a better fit for the 3-4 but a lot of fans in Carolina believe that Balmer could be the guy they target. Do not rule out Brian Brohm, Jonathan Stewart or an OT here. Michael Turner may be a free agent option for them.

14. Bears-- Brian Brohm, QB The Bears would like to address the O-line. But with Long, Clady and Otah all gone, I think they will look to draft a player who they hope ends up being their franchise QB. Brohm has played in a pro-style offense and could be ready to start on day 1. With Rex Grossman a FA, this pick makes a lot of sense.

15. Lions-- Michael Jenkins, CB I was tempted to select a RB here for the Lions but the Lions starting CBs are woeful. In fact, they may have a far worse situation in terms of their starting CBs than even we (the Saints) do. Jenkins could make a lot of sense here for the Lions. Keith Rivers could also draw some consideration as could Chris Williams.

16. Cardinals-- Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB A lot of projections have the Cardinals taking a RB here. And I could see that occurring. In fact, I had Mendenhall projected here. But the Cardinals have more pressing areas of need, particularly at CB. They could grab a corner here and get a guy like Matt Forte later.

17. Vikings-- Derrick Harvey, DE A WR could make some sense here but I cannot see Brad Childress drafting a WR in the first round at this point. This draft is very deep at WR and they will be able to grab one in the second round. Given that Udeze has leukemia and the play at end was already suspect, Harvey here makes a lot of sense.

18. Houston Texans-- Rashad Mendenhall, RB The Texans could go for either a RB or CB. In many ways, their needs are similar to the Cardinals and a lot will depend on what the Cardinals do at #16. I think here, the Texans opt for the RB and a pretty solid one. If Stewart and Mendenhall are both on the board, most prognosticators might project Stewart here but I think Mendenhall is the better player. I also think he's more versatile than Stewart and could fit better into the Texans offense. In fact, Mendenhall could end up being very deadly for an up and coming Texans team that has drafted pretty well the last couple of years.

19. Eagles-- Chris Willaims, OT The Eagles may think CB or WR here. They could even been in play for a DE. But when they put on the film from last year and see what Umeniyora did to Winston Justice, they will quickly conclude that OL is the way to go. Tra Thomas is long in the tooth and in the final year of his deal. Justice is a better fit on the right side. This pick makes a lot of sense.

20. Bucs-- Mario Manningham, WR Joey Galloway is not getting any younger. The Bucs will definitely look to upgrade the WR spot. Desean Jackson could draw some consideration here but I think they will go for the larger target in Manningham, who is also believed to possess the speed to stretch the field.

21. Redskins-- Limas Sweed, WR The Redskins are another team that could go DE. But the Redskins are in need of a big target at WR to play opposite the more smallish Santana Moss. The Redskins, like the Bucs, have been rumored to be interested in Chad Johnson. This indicates to me that they would like not only to upgrade the WR position but also do so by getting a bigger target at the same time.

22. Cowboys-- Aqib Talib, CB The Cowboys can go in a number of directions with this pick. I think in the end, they will settle on the CB from Kansas. This will give them a bonafide corner to play opposite Terrence Newman in hopes of making their secondary a force. Roy Williams is overrated but the Cowboys seem to love him. Kenny Phillips could draw some interest here as well.

23. Steelers-- Branden Albert, OG After losing Faneca, the Steelers will likely look to upgrade the offensive line. Albert is a massive guard who fits well into the Steeler mode of nasty offensive linemen and could get the nod over other talented players still available at the tackle position.

24. Titans-- Calais Campbell, DE The Titans never seem to do what we expect. Last year, everyone thought they would take Meachem in the first round. Instead, they opted for Griffin. In the second, they took Chris Henry higher than what some might have expected him to go. This year, the Titans have a need at the WR position. I believe they will be in play for Roy Williams. Here, I think they go for a DE. Neither Odom nor LaBoy are anything special and they could really use a guy like Campbell who has the potential to be a force.

25. Seahawks-- Jonathan Stewart, RB Shaun Alexander is beginning to slow down and the belief is that the Seahawks will look to upgrade the RB position in this year's draft. Stewart played pretty close by at Oregon and would be a nice fit with the Seahawks. He's a big back who runs with power and good vision. The Seahawks would be lucky to land Stewart if he's still on the board considering that he can go as high as #13 to Carolina and could easily land in Detroit, Arizona or Houston well before Seahawks are on the clock.

26. Jaguars-- Desean Jackson, WR The Jaguars are in serious need of a WR who can consistently stretch the field. Jackson has the speed and deep-threat abilities the Jaguars could be looking for on draft day. I think that DE is a need but with all the top DEs already taken, the Jags could likely look at the WR position where Reggie Williams is inconsistent, Matt Jones could be out and Enrest Wilford is a FA. Jackson also has outstanding return abilities, which could boost an already solid return game in Jacksonville.

27. Chargers-- Reggie Smith, CB/S Versatile player who could add some size and athleticism to the Chargers secondary. Would make a nice tandem with Eric Weddle who the Chargers took last year. He can play at both the CB and S positions, which will be a plus for the Chargers. Do not be surprised if the Chargers take a DT or a

28. Cowboys-- Felix Jones, RB The Cowboys could look to take a WR but I think with Jones being a FA, the Cowboys could look to take a different Jones to be a complement to Marion Barber. Felix Jones has breakaway speed and could be the homerun threat the Cowboys are looking for on draft day. He is also very solid as a return specialist and would be an upgrade at the position as well Do not rule out WR where Owens is getting older and Glenn has been injured. They re-signed Patrick Crayton but a WR is still a possibility.

29. Packers-- John Carlson, TE Last year the Packers were rumored to be in love with Greg Olsen but opted for the DT instead. This year, with Bubba Franks being released, it may be time for the Packers to take a TE who can stretch the field as well as help out as a sixth lineman in the blocking game. Do not rule out a CB here although I think this may be a little too high for either Patrick Lee or Brandon Flowers.

30. 49'ners-- Quentin Groves, DE/OLB This one might shock some of you. It certainly shocked me but their is scuttlebutt that the Niners are very high on Groves. I think Desean Jackson would draw consideration if he is still on the board to fit into Martz's system. I also think the Niners could pursue Early Doucet but he'll likely be there when they pick in the early second round. Ali Highsmith could be a wildcard pick but, then again, Groves would be a wildcard pick. Truth is, the Niners need a better pass rush and Groves certainly has potential.

***New England*** Pick forfeited due to CHEATING!

31. Giants-- Kenny Phillips, S Okay, this was a really difficult pick because it came down to Keith Rivers and Phillips. I cannot believe that Rivers is still available. Somehow, come draft day, I think he still goes in the first. But it would not surprise me if he falls to the early second. The Giants would be thrilled with either and I really felt that Phillips would be the guy to fall. But the Giants have a serious need a S, particularly if Gibril Wilson does not return. James Butler leaves a lot to be desired back there. Rivers is intriguing if Kawika Mitchell leaves, but they also have Wilkerson as a backup there who could step in. I think the Giants take Phillips if he is here. Sam Baker could draw some interest as the Giants, to me, could stand to improve the O-line.

Some of the top players to fall into second round: Keith Rivers, Sam Baker, Curtis Lofton and Gosder Cherilus.

I could see the Dolphins taking a guy like Lofton to lead off round 2 and replace Zach Thomas. The Rams could look at Lawrence Jackson in round 2. The Falcons will likely go for help at QB and the OL with their two picks. Chad Henne and Baker or Cherilus or Nicks or Hills could be in play for them. The Chiefs would likely opt for Chad Henne if he is there or one of the top CBs like Flowers or Lee. The Raiders could continue to add help at defense and opt for Marcus Harrison or Dre Moore in the middle of their defense. The Jets should pursue a NT and a guy like Pat Sims would fit in perfectly. The Niners will need a WR and Early Doucet, Adarius Bowman or Harry Douglas would all make sense. If Baltimore lands McNabb, they would go OL in the second with one of the top tackles. If they do not, Andre Woodson could draw some attention. If Rivers somehow dropped, unless a team traded up, the Saints would likely be in play for him. They could also take a look at a guy like Patrick Lee.
 

BoNcHiE

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Kenny Phillips won't make it past the Panthers after he runs a 4.4 at the combine. The Broncos will take him at 12 most likely to replace Lynch, who is 36 and coming off an injury riddled season.

Theres zero chance he lasts til 31 unless he bombs at the combine, and I mean bomb.
 

d3vanj

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i personally would be ecstatic, and the way you have this playing out is 100% plausible
 
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REALCHRISM

REALCHRISM

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Kenny Phillips won't make it past the Panthers after he runs a 4.4 at the combine. The Broncos will take him at 12 most likely to replace Lynch, who is 36 and coming off an injury riddled season.

Theres zero chance he lasts til 31 unless he bombs at the combine, and I mean bomb.

Bonchie, I know you love the guy and so it is not surprising that you feel that way. I truly respect your opinions and such is the case here. But I just disagree. Do I think he can move up with a strong workout? Sure. But when I go through all the tapes of Phillips that I have, I see a guy who has a ton of potential but disappears in big games. I see a guy who plays better around the line of scrimmage against the run than he does in pass coverage. I see a guy who bites on play-action and tends to get lose sometimes in coverage. Is he terrible? Of course he is not or I would not have him going as high as I do. And don't get me wrong, I think Phillips has talent. But he has not been able to put it together. In fact, I would say that he and Calais Campbell, both teammates, might be two of the biggest enigmas in this draft because while both are tremendously talented, you just do not know what you are going to get out of each of them, respectively. It's just an opinion, though, so I respect your right to disagree.

By the way, I am not the only person who feels this way about Phillips. Earlier this year, I said that he was a bit overrated on this board but I had not reviewed him the way I have in the last month. I was just judging by what I remembered from watching him, still believing at the time that he could be a top 15 pick and even a logical pick for the Saints. But after I reviewed him some more as I tried to get this first mock done, I just could not put him that high. Mike Detellier has come out saying he does not believe that Phillips is a top 15 pick. Mike Mayock and Mel Kiper have also suggested that he could fall out of the first round. Now that's not to say that any of their opinions are infallible but it does show that others are questioning whether or not Phillips is as good as advertised at this point in his development.
 
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CitySaint

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I've noticed numerous mocks that have Phillips falling. I had been wondering if something had happened that I haven't heard.
 

canuckredux

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That's not unthinkable. The Ellis to New England pick doesn't make much sense; They've already got Warren, Wilfork and Seymour on that line and they could use some help in the secondary. I think the Raiders are going to take a DT, but if Howie's son is still on the board, then Al may have to reconsider.
 

BoNcHiE

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I've noticed numerous mocks that have Phillips falling. I had been wondering if something had happened that I haven't heard.

Nothing. Your probably referring to Mel Kiper, who had him being picked at number 9 in December, and out of the 1st round in January. He and Mayock have been all over the map.

The combine will make things alot clearer.
 

Saintaholic

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RealChrisM I actually thought of this very scenario today. There is a good chance that either Dorsey or Ellis will be there for the taking. Those are probably the only two players in this draft that I can say that I would draft without hesitating if they are there at 10. If one is there, the Saints rep at the draft should run up to the podium with the pick.
 

nolaDante

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I appreciate the time and effort you put into this. Out of all the "mock drafts" that have been up on this board recently, this is easily one of the most insightful.
 

BoNcHiE

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So are you counting on Dorsey falling because of injury concerns?
 

CitySaint

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Matt Ryan going earlier is a major key to the Saints having a shot at either Dorsey or Ellis.
 

Kegger

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If we get Dorsey AND Rivers, w00t for us! That would be like drafting Warren Sapp and Derrick Brooks in the same draft.
 
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REALCHRISM

REALCHRISM

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So are you counting on Dorsey falling because of injury concerns?

No, I never suggested that in this mock. I have him falling because he either does not fit the scheme of the teams drafting ahead of us or those teams have opted to take other players given this mock. For instance, Oakland and Atlanta both could be in play for Dorsey. But if Chris Long is available, I think he's the pick. There's a belief that Atlanta will want to make a splash in this draft and could do so by taking either Ryan or McFadden. If they do the right thing, as I suggested in my commentary on this draft, then they would take either Ellis or Dorsey. But I think they want to sell tickets. The Rams could take him but they have huge concerns on the O-line. Their offense could not work this year due to the injuries they had up front and I think they will look to Jake Long. They have a logjam of guys at DT and so that lowers that need. It's the same thing with the Chiefs who need O-line help.
 
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REALCHRISM

REALCHRISM

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If we get Dorsey AND Rivers, w00t for us! That would be like drafting Warren Sapp and Derrick Brooks in the same draft.

I honestly do not know that we would get Rivers. As I said in my initial thread, trades are likely to alter what occurs on draft day. But if things were to fall this way, certainly you would think the Saints would be smart enough to take both Dorsey and Rivers.
 

birdog

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This is the second mock I've seen in the last couple days when there isn't a DT selected in the first 3 picks. A Schein and Solly Wilcots also had their mock and no DT in the first 3 picks....they had C Long, J Long and Matt Ryan go first 3 picks. That means the Saints might have a chance moving up, and get one of the 2 DTs between the 4th and 9th pick
 

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