Mock Draft 2.0 w/trades, explanations and a few surprises... (1 Viewer)

REALCHRISM

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This is the second of three drafts I do each year. The last will come on the morning of the draft. The first and third are done without trades. It is difficult to predict trades. Still, I know they happen so I usually utilize the second mock to predict some trades that we might see happen on draft day as teams try to maneuver in order to get the guys they covet most. Please feel free to offer any commentary or criticism that you see fit. Just make sure it is well-reasoned.

1. Dolphins--Jake Long, OT Miami goes with the safe pick here. Gholston is the one guy that might be taken over Jake as Gholston has skills similar to Shawn Merriman. I think that in the end, Bill Parcells might decide to go with a guy who can open up holes for Ronnie Brown while John Beck or any other young QB they draft develops and gets accustomed to the speed of the game.

2. Rams--Vernon Gholston, DE/LB I think Gholston goes either #1 or #2. Here, I have the Rams taking him. Some project Chris Long, others say Dorsey. In the case of the latter, the Rams have Adam Carriker at DT. Carriker can play end but given his build, he would be a better fit as a 3-4 defense end than as a 4-3 guy. I also do not think he adds much in terms of pass-rushing from the outside. Chris Long is solid and would be a fantastic pick. But I just think that Gholston will be hard to pass up. For Haslett, he looks the part. For Rams fans, thank God, that he also seems to have the talent to be really good.

3. Falcons--Matt Ryan, QB Dorsey lands him on most mock drafts. But Arthur Blank is said to really love Matt Ryan. I think the Falcons feel that they need a face for the franchise and to put a final nail in the coffin of what was the Michael Vick era...err, experience. I am not high on Ryan but I think he does possess good intangibles and a desire to win. He's not a Peyton Manning-like franchise QB but he can be as a good as a guy like Phillip Rivers.

4. Raiders--Chris Long, DE Howie Long had a Hall-of-Fame career with the Raiders and they are hoping that his son Chris has just as strong of a campaign. The Raiders, particularly Al Davis, will be tempted by Mcfadden and his outstanding speed. But in the end, you cannot pass on Howie's boy after Howie gave the team so many great years. Chris Long is very athletic and will certainly help provide the Raiders with a championship defense. Now if only they can get that offense together, they might be able to become a playoff contender.

***Trade*** Saints trade the #10 and #40 in exchange for the Chiefs #5 and fourth round selection

5. Saints--Glenn Dorsey, DT The Saints decide that waiting around for a DT to fall to them is not the right move. Instead, they move up to get arguably the best player in the draft and the top guy on their board. Dorsey will add a presence on defense and will help keep defenses from keying on Will Smith and others.

6. Jets--Darren McFadden, RB The Jets are thrilled to add a dynamic playmaker in McFadden. A few years ago, the Jets really wanted Reggie Bush. Now they get a guy who is somewhat similar in his gamebreaking ability. With a re-tooled line, McFadden should make an immediate impact.

***Trade*** Eagles trade Lito Sheppard and their third round pick to the Patriots in exchange for the #7 selection

7. Eagles--Brandon Albert, OG/T Eagles are able to move up and get their man. The Eagles desperately need a LT. Tra Thomas is not getting any younger and Winston Justice gave up six sacks last year to Osi Umenyiora. Justice is a better fit for the right side.

8. Ravens--Leodis McKelvin, CB With Ryan off the board, the Ravens look to fill their next biggest need. They may choose to select a tackle but I think that McKelvin may rate higher on their board than Otah or Clady.

9. Bengals--Sedrick Ellis, DT Ellis may be long gone before the Bengals go on the clock. But in this current mock, he falls right into the laps of the only team that might covet him more than the Saints.

10. Chiefs--Jeff Otah, OT Herm Edwards is said to love Otah and feels that he fits right into their power run-blocking schemes. I actually believe he is a boom/bust type pick but I cannot argue who a team likes or dislikes.

***Trade*** Vikings trade their #17 and second round pick in exchange for the Bills #11 pick

11. Vikings--Derrick Harvey, DE The Vikings could wait and grab a guy like Phillip Merling. But they need a true pass-rushing specialist and Harvey fits the bill. Harvey is a guy that has speed off the edge and should get a lot of pressure on QBs simply by the benefit of having Kevin and Pat Williams on the inside. They move up so that Carolina does not steal their guy away.

12. Broncos--Ryan Clady, OT Fits right in with the Broncos zone-blocking scheme. A perfect pick for Denver.

***Trade*** The Chicago Bears trade their #14 pick and a fourth rounder to the Panthers for the #13 pick

13. Bears--Chris Williams, OT The Bears are afraid that the Panthers might take one of the last top OTs off the board and don't have to get caught reaching for a guy like Gosder Cherilus. They overpay in this trade up one spot to guarantee that they get their guy. Rashad Mendenhall might draw some consideration. But with the investment they made in Cedric Benson years ago, it might be better to get a guy like Jamaal Charles in the second who can complement him. It's also a little too early for Brian Brohm and so Williams makes the most sense here.

14. Panthers--Phillip Merling, DE The Panthers were prepared to take Williams. And maybe they will on draft day. But with an extra pick in this draft to work with, Carolina decides to go with the next guy on their draft board. Julius Peppers underperformed last year and Rucker is not the player he used to be. They do have Johnson, the DE they took from UGA last year. But Merling has a lot of ability and is a kid they are familiar with as he played right up the road at Clemson. He's effective in stopping the run and does offer some ability at rushing the passer. When Carolina has been good, it's been when their defense has been tops and they are hoping that Merling can help them get back to form.

15. Lions--Jerod Mayo, LB Surprise, surprise. With Rashad Mendenhall on the board, the Lions pass him up and, instead, opt for Mayo. The draft is deep at RB and the Lions feel that they can get their guy in round 2. They, however, won't get a guy like Mayo who will fit nicely inside that Tampa 2 defense. Rod Marinelli is said to love Mayo and might choose to take him here. Surprisingly, Mayo is the first LB off the board.

16. Cardinals--Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB There has been talk that the Cardinals might move Antrel Rolle to safety. If they do that, they will certainly need a CB. They are more than excited to add the athletic Cromartie here who they are hoping shares more than just a last name with his cousin Antonio. They could opt for a RB here but I think, again, with a deep draft, they can get a guy in the next round or two.

17. Bills--Devin Thomas, WR The Bills have wanted to add a big WR who can run this entire off-season. They tried to get Bryant Johnson but he opted to sign with the 49'ners. Malcolm Kelly was thoughtt to be the choice but he ran a disappointing 40 time and still has questions surrounding his health. Thomas has been moving up the boards. He has solid hands and great speed. Some wonder if he is a one year wonder. I guess the Bills and the rest of the league will soon find out.

18. Texans--Rashad Mendenhall, RB What a steal!!! The Texans wanted to add one of the top tackles. But without having a second round pick (traded to Atlanta for Matt Schaub), they do not have the fire power to move up. So imagine their joy when they land a guy who will be awesome in their ZBS. He has the speed and power to put up big numbers and finally give the Texans the rushing threat they have wanted for some time.

19. Patriots--Keith Rivers, LB The Patriots move down, add Lito Sheppard and now a BIG STEAL in Keith Rivers. Rivers is a legitimate top 10 pick. But with the Saints moving up, he slides down to #19. The Patriots are more than happy as they get an impact player that will add youth to their LBing corps.

20. Bucs--Michael Jenkins, CB Monte Kiffin is said to love to Michael Jenkins. I personally think Aqib Talib fits better into the cover-2 scheme even though I am not high on Talib. Jenkins is a local product and will probably end up getting the nod over Talib. Either way, it is clear that the Bucs will need to add a young CB to that aging defense. Ronde Barber is not getting younger and the Bucs have already jettisoned Brian Kelly off (he's since been signed by Detroit). The Bucs would like to add a WR but I think they will feel that Jenkins is too good to pass up here.

21. Redskins--Quentin Groves, DE/LB The Redskins signed Andre Carter a few years ago hoping that he could add some pressure from the outside. He did not and proved to be a free agent bust. Now, they decide to draft a guy who they feel will finally be able to solve their problems with pass-rushing. Groves has great speed and has proven to be a sack specialist (26.5 in his career at Auburn). Groves runs hot and cold and will have to be pushed to be the best he can be. But when he is on, he's a force. A WR might draw some consideration.

22. Cowboys--Felix Jones, RB This pick could easily be a CB or WR. I think given that the Cowboys have two first rounders, they'll be able to grab a WR with the second pick. As far as CB is concerned, they could fill that need by completing a trade for Pac Man Jones. I think that Felix Jones makes a lot of sense here as a he gives the Cowboys a change of pace runner from Marion Barber and a guy who can help them out on special teams, which they are in desperate need of an upgrade. Miles Austin was not getting it done and neither was anyone else they put back there to return kicks.

23. Steelers--Gosder Cherilus, OT At one time, it was believed that this pick would be Brandon Albert and the Steelers were probably very excited. But then people started liking Albert and he moved up a lot of teams boards. So now, the Steelers are forced to reach a slight bit to get Cherilus. But this is not a bad pick. Cherilus showed good feet at his pro day and has a lot of upside. With Hines Ward getting longer in the tooth, I would not rule out a WR here. I would also not rule out a CB here.

24. Titans--Limas Sweed, WR The Titans should be thrilled. They did not move up and still were able to land their guy despite the fact that everyone from the Bucs down could have easily taken him. Sweed is familiar with Vince Young having played with him at UT. This should help them to get on the same page quickly. With the additions of Crumpler and Sweed, better offensive production will be expected from the Titans.

25. Seahawks--Dustin

26. Jaguars--Calais Campbell, DE After losing Bobby McCray, the Jags will need to find a quick replacement. Campbell had a disappointing junior campaign. Still, he has a lot of potential and upside. Gregg Williams and Jack Del Rio believe they have the fomula to turn that poential into production. Given his size, he might be able to also slide inside where the Jaguards might be looking for a DT. Consequently, Kentwan Balmer might also draw consideration but Campbell is rated higher here for the Jags.

27. Chargers--Brandon Flowers, CB I was VERY tempted to put Chris Johnson, RB, here. I know that seems odd given that they lost Tomlison. But they lost Michael Turner and are in the market for a backup. Johnson's speed might be an attraction for the Chargers. Jonathan Stewart could also get a look here as he is a bigger back that might fill the role that Turner provided. Balmer could also get a look as Jamal Williams was nicked up a lot last season and is getting older. Luis Castillo was also hurt at times so Balmer could add some insurance. But the Chargers lost Drayton Florence and would like to add another CB. Without having picks in the second and third round, they feel that now is the time to add a CB. They might still be able to get a good RB in the fourth and a backup DE/T later.

28. Cowboys--James Hardy, WR Somewhat a surprise here. As expected, the Cowboys go with a WR. But Hardy is a bit of a surprise. Some feel that Desean Jackson might make more sense. Certainly, the Cowboys will want to add a guy who can stretch the field. But Hardy's an intriguing prospect with the type of size and ability to be a huge red-zone threat.

29. Packers--Aqib Talib, CB The Packers are excited to get Talib here. They are in need of another CB as Woodson and Harris are both getting older. Talib will inject some youth at the position and give them a guy who can match up against another team's third WR. Talib will benefit from being behind Charles and Al as they can teach him the small nuances of the game.

30. 49'ners--Desean Jackson, WR The 49'ners added Bryant Johnson and Issac Bruce in the off-season. But they are going to need some more playmakers. Bruce is old and Johnson does not have the speed that Jackson does to exploit defenses the way Martz likes. Jackson is also a great return man, arguably the best in the game. With the Niners losing Michael Lewis, Jackson makes a lot of sense here. I was VERY TEMPTED to put Trevor Laws here as I think that the 49'ners might like to add Early Doucet who Nolan is said to like. But Jackson's ability in the return game gives him the edge here over choosing that scenario.

31. Giants--Kenny Phillips, S Reggie Smith might also get a long look here. Either way, the Giants are in desperate need of adding a S after losing Gibril Wilson to the Raiders. Sammy Knight does not have any range and will be exploited if he is counted on to do the things that Wilson did for the Giants. Phillips is better in the box than he is in coverage. He has a tendency to bite on playaction. In addition, he's not as skilled as Ed Reed or Sean Taylor. He is, however, a solid prospect and the Giants are happy to add him to their defense.

A few notes:

My prediction is that the Saints will complete a trade for Jeremy Shockey. I am going to say that they trade a second in 2009 for Shockey, although that's wishful thinking since I would like to preserve our picks this year. You could see us move a third and Harper for him although that would leave us with no second or third rounder given my mock here.

I was tempted to trade our third rounder and either Jon Stinchcomb or Jason David to the Chiefs for their #5. The Chiefs need linemen, so Stinchcomb makes some sense there. He is in the last year of his contract. But Edwards like power guys and Stinchcomb is more finesse. With Jason David, he would fit into their cover-2 scheme very well. But I don't know that he has the value they would want in exchange for that pick. Also, with McKenzie on the mend and us still needing to probably add another CB, I doubt we move David this soon.

I actually believe that the Chiefs might take less than market value for the pick. There was an article in a KC newspaper yesterday discussing how difficult it is to move top 5 picks and how no teams want to move up and give up all the money and draft picks it is going to cost. The Chiefs, however, seem somewhat adamant about trading back and picking up another selection or two. If Jake Long is gone, they might settle for a third rounder. For now, however, I chose to be more realistic with the trades. They could very well stay put and take either Otah or Brandon Albert there.

My Saints mock based on the mock abovet:

1. Glenn Dorsey, DT What more can I say? You heard it all before.

3. Tavares Gooden, LB Has played all three LBs positions and should provide competition on the weakside. He will provide insurance in case Morgan proves to have problems staying healthy again. Gooden has solid speed. His instincts are marginal but he is reliable tackler with a non-stop motor and the range to go from sideline-to-sideline.

4. Antwuan Molden, CB Is moving up the draft board and could be gone by the time the fourth round rolls around. If not, the Saints should jump on the Eastern Kentucky product who has great speed, size and solid hips.

5. Eddie Royal, WR Will likely go higher than this. Could be a third rounder although some rate him as a mid-round pick. Darius Reynaud or Dexter Jackson could draw some consideration too do their return ability.

6. Jacob Hester, RB This a guy who could be a solid complement to Reggie Bush and who could get the short yardage when needed.

7. Brandon Keith, OT Small school--Northern Iowa--prospect with a lot of upside. Has good size and is very athletic. Can be a mauler in the run game. He will have to work on his techinique. Not surprisingly, he's very raw and has not played against top competition. But he has a lot of upside.
 
I don't think the Saints 4th, 5th, and 6th picks will be there in the rounds you have them selected. I've seen Flowers going to SD somewhere else also. He won't go in the first round and the Chargers don't need a CB. They took the Georgia CB last year in the supplemental draft.
 
I like it, but I just have one disagreement. I can't really see the Patriots trading for a vet CB who will want a new contract, when in the past they haven't been too crazy about dishing out big contracts to veterans, especially at the CB position. It's plausible, of course, but I'm just not so sure. Again, not to nitpick, because I think it's great and you put a lot of effort into it. Just one minor disagreement.
 
This is the second of three drafts I do each year. The last will come on the morning of the draft. The first and third are done without trades. It is difficult to predict trades. Still, I know they happen so I usually utilize the second mock to predict some trades that we might see happen on draft day as teams try to maneuver in order to get the guys they covet most. Please feel free to offer any commentary or criticism that you see fit. Just make sure it is well-reasoned.

1. Dolphins--Jake Long, OT Miami goes with the safe pick here. Gholston is the one guy that might be taken over Jake as Gholston has skills similar to Shawn Merriman. I think that in the end, Bill Parcells might decide to go with a guy who can open up holes for Ronnie Brown while John Beck or any other young QB they draft develops and gets accustomed to the speed of the game.

2. Rams--Vernon Gholston, DE/LB I think Gholston goes either #1 or #2. Here, I have the Rams taking him. Some project Chris Long, others say Dorsey. In the case of the latter, the Rams have Adam Carriker at DT. Carriker can play end but given his build, he would be a better fit as a 3-4 defense end than as a 4-3 guy. I also do not think he adds much in terms of pass-rushing from the outside. Chris Long is solid and would be a fantastic pick. But I just think that Gholston will be hard to pass up. For Haslett, he looks the part. For Rams fans, thank God, that he also seems to have the talent to be really good.

3. Falcons--Matt Ryan, QB Dorsey lands him on most mock drafts. But Arthur Blank is said to really love Matt Ryan. I think the Falcons feel that they need a face for the franchise and to put a final nail in the coffin of what was the Michael Vick era...err, experience. I am not high on Ryan but I think he does possess good intangibles and a desire to win. He's not a Peyton Manning-like franchise QB but he can be as a good as a guy like Phillip Rivers.

4. Raiders--Chris Long, DE Howie Long had a Hall-of-Fame career with the Raiders and they are hoping that his son Chris has just as strong of a campaign. The Raiders, particularly Al Davis, will be tempted by Mcfadden and his outstanding speed. But in the end, you cannot pass on Howie's boy after Howie gave the team so many great years. Chris Long is very athletic and will certainly help provide the Raiders with a championship defense. Now if only they can get that offense together, they might be able to become a playoff contender.

***Trade*** Saints trade the #10 and #40 in exchange for the Chiefs #5 and fourth round selection

5. Saints--Glenn Dorsey, DT The Saints decide that waiting around for a DT to fall to them is not the right move. Instead, they move up to get arguably the best player in the draft and the top guy on their board. Dorsey will add a presence on defense and will help keep defenses from keying on Will Smith and others.

6. Jets--Darren McFadden, RB The Jets are thrilled to add a dynamic playmaker in McFadden. A few years ago, the Jets really wanted Reggie Bush. Now they get a guy who is somewhat similar in his gamebreaking ability. With a re-tooled line, McFadden should make an immediate impact.

***Trade*** Eagles trade Lito Sheppard and their third round pick to the Patriots in exchange for the #7 selection

7. Eagles--Brandon Albert, OG/T Eagles are able to move up and get their man. The Eagles desperately need a LT. Tra Thomas is not getting any younger and Winston Justice gave up six sacks last year to Osi Umenyiora. Justice is a better fit for the right side.

8. Ravens--Leodis McKelvin, CB With Ryan off the board, the Ravens look to fill their next biggest need. They may choose to select a tackle but I think that McKelvin may rate higher on their board than Otah or Clady.

9. Bengals--Sedrick Ellis, DT Ellis may be long gone before the Bengals go on the clock. But in this current mock, he falls right into the laps of the only team that might covet him more than the Saints.

10. Chiefs--Jeff Otah, OT Herm Edwards is said to love Otah and feels that he fits right into their power run-blocking schemes. I actually believe he is a boom/bust type pick but I cannot argue who a team likes or dislikes.

***Trade*** Vikings trade their #17 and second round pick in exchange for the Bills #11 pick

11. Vikings--Derrick Harvey, DE The Vikings could wait and grab a guy like Phillip Merling. But they need a true pass-rushing specialist and Harvey fits the bill. Harvey is a guy that has speed off the edge and should get a lot of pressure on QBs simply by the benefit of having Kevin and Pat Williams on the inside. They move up so that Carolina does not steal their guy away.

12. Broncos--Ryan Clady, OT Fits right in with the Broncos zone-blocking scheme. A perfect pick for Denver.

***Trade*** The Chicago Bears trade their #14 pick and a fourth rounder to the Panthers for the #13 pick

13. Bears--Chris Williams, OT The Bears are afraid that the Panthers might take one of the last top OTs off the board and don't have to get caught reaching for a guy like Gosder Cherilus. They overpay in this trade up one spot to guarantee that they get their guy. Rashad Mendenhall might draw some consideration. But with the investment they made in Cedric Benson years ago, it might be better to get a guy like Jamaal Charles in the second who can complement him. It's also a little too early for Brian Brohm and so Williams makes the most sense here.

14. Panthers--Phillip Merling, DE The Panthers were prepared to take Williams. And maybe they will on draft day. But with an extra pick in this draft to work with, Carolina decides to go with the next guy on their draft board. Julius Peppers underperformed last year and Rucker is not the player he used to be. They do have Johnson, the DE they took from UGA last year. But Merling has a lot of ability and is a kid they are familiar with as he played right up the road at Clemson. He's effective in stopping the run and does offer some ability at rushing the passer. When Carolina has been good, it's been when their defense has been tops and they are hoping that Merling can help them get back to form.

15. Lions--Jerod Mayo, LB Surprise, surprise. With Rashad Mendenhall on the board, the Lions pass him up and, instead, opt for Mayo. The draft is deep at RB and the Lions feel that they can get their guy in round 2. They, however, won't get a guy like Mayo who will fit nicely inside that Tampa 2 defense. Rod Marinelli is said to love Mayo and might choose to take him here. Surprisingly, Mayo is the first LB off the board.

16. Cardinals--Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB There has been talk that the Cardinals might move Antrel Rolle to safety. If they do that, they will certainly need a CB. They are more than excited to add the athletic Cromartie here who they are hoping shares more than just a last name with his cousin Antonio. They could opt for a RB here but I think, again, with a deep draft, they can get a guy in the next round or two.

17. Bills--Devin Thomas, WR The Bills have wanted to add a big WR who can run this entire off-season. They tried to get Bryant Johnson but he opted to sign with the 49'ners. Malcolm Kelly was thoughtt to be the choice but he ran a disappointing 40 time and still has questions surrounding his health. Thomas has been moving up the boards. He has solid hands and great speed. Some wonder if he is a one year wonder. I guess the Bills and the rest of the league will soon find out.

18. Texans--Rashad Mendenhall, RB What a steal!!! The Texans wanted to add one of the top tackles. But without having a second round pick (traded to Atlanta for Matt Schaub), they do not have the fire power to move up. So imagine their joy when they land a guy who will be awesome in their ZBS. He has the speed and power to put up big numbers and finally give the Texans the rushing threat they have wanted for some time.

19. Patriots--Keith Rivers, LB The Patriots move down, add Lito Sheppard and now a BIG STEAL in Keith Rivers. Rivers is a legitimate top 10 pick. But with the Saints moving up, he slides down to #19. The Patriots are more than happy as they get an impact player that will add youth to their LBing corps.

20. Bucs--Michael Jenkins, CB Monte Kiffin is said to love to Michael Jenkins. I personally think Aqib Talib fits better into the cover-2 scheme even though I am not high on Talib. Jenkins is a local product and will probably end up getting the nod over Talib. Either way, it is clear that the Bucs will need to add a young CB to that aging defense. Ronde Barber is not getting younger and the Bucs have already jettisoned Brian Kelly off (he's since been signed by Detroit). The Bucs would like to add a WR but I think they will feel that Jenkins is too good to pass up here.

21. Redskins--Quentin Groves, DE/LB The Redskins signed Andre Carter a few years ago hoping that he could add some pressure from the outside. He did not and proved to be a free agent bust. Now, they decide to draft a guy who they feel will finally be able to solve their problems with pass-rushing. Groves has great speed and has proven to be a sack specialist (26.5 in his career at Auburn). Groves runs hot and cold and will have to be pushed to be the best he can be. But when he is on, he's a force. A WR might draw some consideration.

22. Cowboys--Felix Jones, RB This pick could easily be a CB or WR. I think given that the Cowboys have two first rounders, they'll be able to grab a WR with the second pick. As far as CB is concerned, they could fill that need by completing a trade for Pac Man Jones. I think that Felix Jones makes a lot of sense here as a he gives the Cowboys a change of pace runner from Marion Barber and a guy who can help them out on special teams, which they are in desperate need of an upgrade. Miles Austin was not getting it done and neither was anyone else they put back there to return kicks.

23. Steelers--Gosder Cherilus, OT At one time, it was believed that this pick would be Brandon Albert and the Steelers were probably very excited. But then people started liking Albert and he moved up a lot of teams boards. So now, the Steelers are forced to reach a slight bit to get Cherilus. But this is not a bad pick. Cherilus showed good feet at his pro day and has a lot of upside. With Hines Ward getting longer in the tooth, I would not rule out a WR here. I would also not rule out a CB here.

24. Titans--Limas Sweed, WR The Titans should be thrilled. They did not move up and still were able to land their guy despite the fact that everyone from the Bucs down could have easily taken him. Sweed is familiar with Vince Young having played with him at UT. This should help them to get on the same page quickly. With the additions of Crumpler and Sweed, better offensive production will be expected from the Titans.

25. Seahawks--Dustin

26. Jaguars--Calais Campbell, DE After losing Bobby McCray, the Jags will need to find a quick replacement. Campbell had a disappointing junior campaign. Still, he has a lot of potential and upside. Gregg Williams and Jack Del Rio believe they have the fomula to turn that poential into production. Given his size, he might be able to also slide inside where the Jaguards might be looking for a DT. Consequently, Kentwan Balmer might also draw consideration but Campbell is rated higher here for the Jags.

27. Chargers--Brandon Flowers, CB I was VERY tempted to put Chris Johnson, RB, here. I know that seems odd given that they lost Tomlison. But they lost Michael Turner and are in the market for a backup. Johnson's speed might be an attraction for the Chargers. Jonathan Stewart could also get a look here as he is a bigger back that might fill the role that Turner provided. Balmer could also get a look as Jamal Williams was nicked up a lot last season and is getting older. Luis Castillo was also hurt at times so Balmer could add some insurance. But the Chargers lost Drayton Florence and would like to add another CB. Without having picks in the second and third round, they feel that now is the time to add a CB. They might still be able to get a good RB in the fourth and a backup DE/T later.

28. Cowboys--James Hardy, WR Somewhat a surprise here. As expected, the Cowboys go with a WR. But Hardy is a bit of a surprise. Some feel that Desean Jackson might make more sense. Certainly, the Cowboys will want to add a guy who can stretch the field. But Hardy's an intriguing prospect with the type of size and ability to be a huge red-zone threat.

29. Packers--Aqib Talib, CB The Packers are excited to get Talib here. They are in need of another CB as Woodson and Harris are both getting older. Talib will inject some youth at the position and give them a guy who can match up against another team's third WR. Talib will benefit from being behind Charles and Al as they can teach him the small nuances of the game.

30. 49'ners--Desean Jackson, WR The 49'ners added Bryant Johnson and Issac Bruce in the off-season. But they are going to need some more playmakers. Bruce is old and Johnson does not have the speed that Jackson does to exploit defenses the way Martz likes. Jackson is also a great return man, arguably the best in the game. With the Niners losing Michael Lewis, Jackson makes a lot of sense here. I was VERY TEMPTED to put Trevor Laws here as I think that the 49'ners might like to add Early Doucet who Nolan is said to like. But Jackson's ability in the return game gives him the edge here over choosing that scenario.

31. Giants--Kenny Phillips, S Reggie Smith might also get a long look here. Either way, the Giants are in desperate need of adding a S after losing Gibril Wilson to the Raiders. Sammy Knight does not have any range and will be exploited if he is counted on to do the things that Wilson did for the Giants. Phillips is better in the box than he is in coverage. He has a tendency to bite on playaction. In addition, he's not as skilled as Ed Reed or Sean Taylor. He is, however, a solid prospect and the Giants are happy to add him to their defense.

A few notes:

My prediction is that the Saints will complete a trade for Jeremy Shockey. I am going to say that they trade a second in 2009 for Shockey, although that's wishful thinking since I would like to preserve our picks this year. You could see us move a third and Harper for him although that would leave us with no second or third rounder given my mock here.

I was tempted to trade our third rounder and either Jon Stinchcomb or Jason David to the Chiefs for their #5. The Chiefs need linemen, so Stinchcomb makes some sense there. He is in the last year of his contract. But Edwards like power guys and Stinchcomb is more finesse. With Jason David, he would fit into their cover-2 scheme very well. But I don't know that he has the value they would want in exchange for that pick. Also, with McKenzie on the mend and us still needing to probably add another CB, I doubt we move David this soon.

I actually believe that the Chiefs might take less than market value for the pick. There was an article in a KC newspaper yesterday discussing how difficult it is to move top 5 picks and how no teams want to move up and give up all the money and draft picks it is going to cost. The Chiefs, however, seem somewhat adamant about trading back and picking up another selection or two. If Jake Long is gone, they might settle for a third rounder. For now, however, I chose to be more realistic with the trades. They could very well stay put and take either Otah or Brandon Albert there.

My Saints mock based on the mock abovet:

1. Glenn Dorsey, DT What more can I say? You heard it all before.

3. Tavares Gooden, LB Has played all three LBs positions and should provide competition on the weakside. He will provide insurance in case Morgan proves to have problems staying healthy again. Gooden has solid speed. His instincts are marginal but he is reliable tackler with a non-stop motor and the range to go from sideline-to-sideline.

4. Antwuan Molden, CB Is moving up the draft board and could be gone by the time the fourth round rolls around. If not, the Saints should jump on the Eastern Kentucky product who has great speed, size and solid hips.

5. Eddie Royal, WR Will likely go higher than this. Could be a third rounder although some rate him as a mid-round pick. Darius Reynaud or Dexter Jackson could draw some consideration too do their return ability.

6. Jacob Hester, RB This a guy who could be a solid complement to Reggie Bush and who could get the short yardage when needed.

7. Brandon Keith, OT Small school--Northern Iowa--prospect with a lot of upside. Has good size and is very athletic. Can be a mauler in the run game. He will have to work on his techinique. Not surprisingly, he's very raw and has not played against top competition. But he has a lot of upside.

TYPO OF THE YEAR IN BOLD We can't trade our next year 2nd round pick for Shockey. The vilma trade is a conditional pick that could turn into a second
 
I don't think the Saints 4th, 5th, and 6th picks will be there in the rounds you have them selected. I've seen Flowers going to SD somewhere else also. He won't go in the first round and the Chargers don't need a CB. They took the Georgia CB last year in the supplemental draft.

I somewhat acknowledge that fact. But I think in each case, those guys are being overdrafted. In other words, they are being taken far higher than they should be taken. I concede, though, to the point you make. Royal and Molden will likely go in the third. Hester may jump a round or two.

The Chargers took Paul Oliver last year. But word out of San Diego is that he may be moved to safety.
 
Overall I like it, I'm not sure that we'll see that much trade but...
One thing I like and I didn't see much in most mock draft is C. Long going to the Raiders instead of McFadden. First they need a DE and when your are the son of the best DE in franchise history, to me, this is a no brainer! However, I might get killed with this idea but I'm not sure we'll pick dorsey over Ellis. I think Dorsey is better but not by a lot and on one hand we have a guy that could have injury problems and on the other we have a guy that was selected and "coached" by our actual DL coach. If the choice come down to coach O, I wouldn't be surprise if we go with Ellis.
 
TYPO OF THE YEAR IN BOLD We can't trade our next year 2nd round pick for Shockey. The vilma trade is a conditional pick that could turn into a second

Yes, a typo. I meant to say since they have Tomlison. I obviously was getting ahead of myself with the fact that they lost Michael Turner.

The Saints 2nd next year is not tied up. That is a common belief but I do not believe that is accurate. There was a Yaho sportswriter who stated a second or third next year, much as guesswork IMO. The way I understand the trade is as follow:

Saints get:

Jonathan Vilma

Conditional 4th rounder in 2009

Jets get:

4th rounder in 2008

Conditional fourth rounder in 2009 that could become a third. If the pick is, indeed, a third, the Saints will then get the Jets fourth rounder.

Of course, I could be wrong. But I seem to recall Mike Tannenbaum, GM of the Jets, breaking down the trade this way on NFL Sirius radio.
 
I like it, but I just have one disagreement. I can't really see the Patriots trading for a vet CB who will want a new contract, when in the past they haven't been too crazy about dishing out big contracts to veterans, especially at the CB position. It's plausible, of course, but I'm just not so sure. Again, not to nitpick, because I think it's great and you put a lot of effort into it. Just one minor disagreement.

Why is that people think Sheppard will want a new contract? He just signed a new deal like two years ago. Also, he did not have his strongest year last season and also missed time with an injury. I do not think he is in the best position to ask for a new deal. Of course, I think you are spot on in your assessment of the Patriots and not wanting to give out big deals to veterans, even their own. Of course, last year they seem to take a detour from that philosophy. Also, they are in desperate need of a CB or two.
 
Overall I like it, I'm not sure that we'll see that much trade but...
One thing I like and I didn't see much in most mock draft is C. Long going to the Raiders instead of McFadden. First they need a DE and when your are the son of the best DE in franchise history, to me, this is a no brainer! However, I might get killed with this idea but I'm not sure we'll pick dorsey over Ellis. I think Dorsey is better but not by a lot and on one hand we have a guy that could have injury problems and on the other we have a guy that was selected and "coached" by our actual DL coach. If the choice come down to coach O, I wouldn't be surprise if we go with Ellis.

I do not think we'll see this much trading either. In my final mock, I do not do trades. So, I like to have a little fun with the second mock and, at the same time, project some of the type of trades we could see on draft day.

I think you could be right. Ellis might get more consideration and the cost to move up might be less. When the Saints cancelled Ellis' visit, it made me think he might be their guy. Then again, Mike Detellier believes that the Saints really like Dorsey. It could go either way.
 
What's the deal with the 25th pick?
Seahawks--Dustin

It must have gotten lost in the copy and paste somehow. The pick was Dustin Keller, TE.

The write was as follow:

Some might project Jonathan Stewart here and that's plausible. But the Seahawks have a tremendous need for a TE, particularly in that WCO. They attempted to sign Alge Crumpler but he decided to sign with the Titans. they signed Julian Jones and Duckett. While those guys are nothing more than stop-gaps, I do not see them taking another RB at this point. If they did, Stewart, a near-local product, would make the most sense. They could also go WR or OL. But they added Mike Wahle in the off-season and I do not see an OL at this point who would rate higher than Keller here. It is the same thing with WR. If Devin Thomas was here, he's the pick. To me, the Seahawks will feel that Desean Jackson is not a good fit for the west coast offense.
 
Why is that people think Sheppard will want a new contract? He just signed a new deal like two years ago. Also, he did not have his strongest year last season and also missed time with an injury. I do not think he is in the best position to ask for a new deal. Of course, I think you are spot on in your assessment of the Patriots and not wanting to give out big deals to veterans, even their own. Of course, last year they seem to take a detour from that philosophy. Also, they are in desperate need of a CB or two.

Valid point. He's not guaranteed to demand a new contract. But since his last contract signing in 2004, when he signed for 8/$26 according to http://www.geocities.com/eaglescap/Contract-Documentation4.html, there have been some big contracts shelled out to CBs (Clements, Samuel, Hall, etc.) and he's no longer getting compensated as well as his peers. Also, it's not uncommon for players to demand new contracts after being traded, as we've seen this offseason.

With that said, after taking a deeper look, it seems like you might be more correct in your assessment. It looks like Sheppard's deal was backloaded, so he might be satisfied with his situation. Or he might use recent level of play as leverage to sucker a new deal out of his new team. At this point, I can't really tell. :shrug:
2004: $2,610,750 (480.75K base salary+680K proration+1.45 mil proration)
2005: $2,661,000 (531K basae salary+680K proration+1.45 mil proration; $8,610,000 dead money if cut)
2006: $2,742,250 (612,250 base+680K pro.+1.45 mil proration; $6,480,000 dead money if cut)
2007: $2,450,000 (1 mil base salary+1.45 mil proration; $4,350,000 dead money if cut)
2008: $3,450,000 (2 mil base salary+1.45 mil proration; $2,900,000 dead money if cut)
2009: $4,450,000 (3 mil base salary+1.45 mil proration; $1,450,000 dead money if cut)
2010: $3,700,000 (base salary)
2011: $4,250,000 (base salary)
 
not only that, we don't have a 4th this year...

You obviously could not have read the draft. In the projected trade with Kansas City, I stated that we are giving up our first and second for their first and fourth rounder.
 
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