Musings on being "robbed" of our second rounder and why we do not need to trade back (necessarily) (1 Viewer)

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Camp Body
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The dictator has taken our second rounder. Fine! As some of us--not me, admittedly--realized very early on, there was little chance of us getting it back. Now, that Goodell has made that crystal clear, it is time to move on.

I see a lot of drafts forecasting us trading down. Making draft-day trades are much harder than we might expect, and the chances of landing our "robbed" second rounder are very slim, unless we drop to the end of the first round/beginning of the second round.

I am not of the volition that we need to make any moves to regain the pick. Quality over quantity is not such a bad option. Even with all our draft choices at our disposal, it would be difficult to fill all our needs. The draft has a certain ebb and flow that can prevent a team from being able to target every player it needs to address weaknesses on the team. So, I do not know that Sean, Mickey and the team will approach the draft as if we have to make a trade to gain more picks. Of course, I am sure that if there are good trades available, they will consider it if it helps the team. But I do not think they will act out of desperation to make a trade.

And why should they? Eric Fisher, Jarvis Jones, Dion Jordan, Star Lotulelei, and/or Barkevious Mingo might fall to us. Should we pass on a potential impact player just to move back and add another pick? I do not think so. This draft has depth in some areas but it is not particularly strong. You can, for instance, add a NT later on in the third or fourth who might be just as good as the guy you land in the late first or second round. But that doesn't mean that the draft is strong overall.

I suspect that Mickey Loomis will be busy over the next few weeks getting the team cap situation figured out. The good thing is that we have moves that can easily bring about significant cap relief and put us into a position to make some moves. The even better news is that outside of Jermon Bushrod, we really do not have too many "need" moves to make. And to be honest, Bushrod might not be a "need" move with other quality tackles available. With Jake Long asking for an average of $10 million a season, it might not be such a bad idea to make a move on him. Even if not, and we decide to retain Bushrod for continuity, it will not prevent us from making any moves.

I bring this up because last year, we had a ton of players to sign and we little cap space. But we were able to make several moves to find some wiggle room and make some big moves going after Ben Grubbs, Curtis Lofton, Broderick Bunkley and David Hawthorne. The way I see it, we did so because we were without a first and second round draft choice and needed to use free agency to fill some of our needs. I am certain that we will take a similar approach. I do not think we have to go out after all big-ticket players. But adding a OT, a WR, a S, and depth at LB/DE might go a long way in helping us. If we signed Jake Long and targeted Mike Wallace as big-ticket players, and then added guys like Larry Grant, Ed Reed (big time player, but not likely to carry a hefty contract at this stage of his career), and a young DE like Ricky Jean-Francois or Jason Jones, then we will be fine heading into the draft. It would also allow us to concentrate on defense.

Let's say we grab Jones, Jordan, or Mingo in the first round, we can come back and get a backup NT like Brandon Williams in the third. In the fourth, we can take a CB like Leon McFadden, a safety like JJ Wilcox in the fifth, and then another guy either capable of playing the 5-technique or another 3/4 backer. In the sixth, take an offensive linemen and move on. Does it fill all of our needs? No, but it is not the end of the world Roger Goodell wants it to be for us. We will move on, we will build, and we rise again! And there's no amount of force that taking our second rounder can do to prevent us from becoming a force of our own!
 

la. champ1

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I agree in the sense that you don't pass up players like Mingo and Dion Jordan. With that being said, if the coaches do not see a "must have" type player at #15, then why not trade back a few spots to gain a lost pick and still get a very good player. There will be some very good talent in the 2nd round of the draft, and we need it to help add some important components to improving the defense, and possibly improving some questionable areas in the offense. I hope we can get that pick back in some manner.
 

SoggyBottomBoy

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I agree that there will be a talented player at 15 that will outweigh the option of trying to move down to recoup more picks. If they decide to drop down with the intent of still getting a targeted player later and getting an extra pick, no problem. I just hope we don't try to gain a pick by giving up a future pick, which they've done many times. And it costs a higher round pick to do so (to get an extra third would cost us our 2nd next year). That's part of the reason we have so few picks each year. Let's bite the bullet this year and break the cycle.
 

AARPSaint

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The team is beginning to age. This is not the time to trade away picks. Second rounder is already lost.
 

shrike3000

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You think we could pull off getting Jake Long, Mike Wallace and Ed Reed? I see no way that could ever happen. I think at least two if not all 3 of those guys will be overpaid.
 

St4ever

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I would be be surprised to see us pick up a free agent OT and drafting almost all defense especially 2 linebackers in the early rounds of the draft. With the need of one extra linebacker due to the switch I see us getting a great outside lb in the first and another inside lb in the third.

It would not surprise me to see Goodell give the saints a 6th or 7th back for a peace offering. Just the way he was quoted as saying we would not get "that" pick back.
 
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You think we could pull off getting Jake Long, Mike Wallace and Ed Reed? I see no way that could ever happen. I think at least two if not all 3 of those guys will be overpaid.
It is difficult to see, sure. But so was getting Grubbs, Bunkley, Lofton, and Hawthorne while re-signing Brees sand Colston.

Jake Long wants $10 million a year. We are talking averages, not actual salary. Bushrod, in my opinion, will be looking at $8.

I think Wallace's value will decrease some after a down season. The contract that Antonio Brown received is a good starting point. I do not see him getting anything more than what the Steelers offered at 5 year, $50 million. But $42.5 over 5 is what I would offer.

With Ed Reed, we are talking a Darren Sharper signing. He's 34 and a local product. So, you can give him a two or three-year deal worth either $7 or 11 million. Pay him only $1 million in the first season and give him a $5.1 million bonus. His cap figure is $2.7, which is significantly lower than what you will have to pay Harper. Second season, pay him $2 million in base and his figure is $3.7. In the final year, he's likely done anyway or you can release him. We would have been on tap for $8 million plus $1.7 prorated bonus and a cap figure of $9.7 million. Instead, we would have only the cap charge of $1.7 million to pay and would clear $8 million off the books.

In all these instances, it is about how you structure the deal. We managed to give Shawn Rodgers and Aubrayo Franklin 1 year deals at $4 million. A deal like that for Reed might even make some sense though I am a fan of adding a year or two to the deal just to thin out the cap charge a bit.

With Long and Wallace, a lot would depend, again, on the structure of the contract. The averages do not matter at all. It is how much base salary is being added to the prorated bonus each year. The upfront money will satisfy the player. The cap friendliness of the low base salaries plus the prorated bonus stretched out over 5 or 6 years makes most contracts doable.
 

los226

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We need a playmaker on D. We need our high draft pick.
 

PapaJoKeR

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YOU WANT A DANASTY? Then trade down early and often to acquire more picks, in this years draft and/or next. Accumulation of draft picks not only gives you a better chance of landing a great player because of the more players you draft the higher probably that at least one will be a home run but you also have leverage in that if there is a superstar in future drafts you have the luxury of trading multiple picks to move up without hurting your normal draft position.


Look at the Patriots for a "how to" build a dynasty in the post free agency era. They always trade down and have more picks than any other team year after year.
 

MrSt0nEd

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Let's say we grab Jones, Jordan, or Mingo in the first round, we can come back and get a backup NT like Brandon Williams in the third. In the fourth, we can take a CB like Leon McFadden, a safety like JJ Wilcox in the fifth, and then another guy either capable of playing the 5-technique or another 3/4 backer. In the sixth, take an offensive linemen and move on.
What about the most interesting/important/Jackpot pick at the 7th round ;)

Goodell can take any pick he wants, as long as we keep the 7th rd pick lol *joke*
 

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Your FA suggestions are bonkers. There is no way one team lands Reed, Wallace, Long AND others. Your predictions might seem reasonable to you but you're overlooking a few major factors. Firstly, they're are other teams in the NFL and of any of the highly desirable FAs you mention WERE going to be signed by a team to such reasonable contracts they would outbid! Secondly, you mentioned being able to sign Grubbs, Bunkley and Hawthorne after retaining Colston and Brees. Yes, we did sign those (second tier) FAs. Their contracts, combined with Brees' and others are the reason we're further over the cap than almost any team in the league! Your argument to support your scheme is actually a good illustration of why it won't happen.

I don't mean to be a buzz kill. I just don't think wildly optimistic, unrealistic projections (like Dictator Goodell returning our 2nd for instance) are to be encouraged.
 
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Your FA suggestions are bonkers. There is no way one team lands Reed, Wallace, Long AND others. Your predictions might seem reasonable to you but you're overlooking a few major factors. Firstly, they're are other teams in the NFL and of any of the highly desirable FAs you mention WERE going to be signed by a team to such reasonable contracts they would outbid! Secondly, you mentioned being able to sign Grubbs, Bunkley and Hawthorne after retaining Colston and Brees. Yes, we did sign those (second tier) FAs. Their contracts, combined with Brees' and others are the reason we're further over the cap than almost any team in the league! Your argument to support your scheme is actually a good illustration of why it won't happen.

I don't mean to be a buzz kill. I just don't think wildly optimistic, unrealistic projections (like Dictator Goodell returning our 2nd for instance) are to be encouraged.
Second-tier FAs. Hmm, Grubbs was the #2 rated OG, Bunkley the #1 rated DT, and Lofton and Hawthorne the top two rated LBs. Aside from the $100 million we gave Drew, and the close to $37 million we gave Colston, we also handed out a total of $108 million to these remaining four players. Second-tier FAs do not get that kind of coin.

The Saints, like other teams, have to finagle with their contracts each year. It is the reality of things in today's NFL where the cap decreased last year from its pre-2010 level (the uncapped season), and has seen only minimal increases in 2012 and now expected for 2013. So, teams that constructed deals years ago in anticipation that the cap would continue to rise have found things tougher. Will Smith's contract, for instance, looms larger than ever with us being tight against the cap. But we are by NO MEANS handcuffed. Teams will continue to entice free agents with nice bonuses while signing them to cap friendly deals. The Saints are masters at that, and while I do not expect them to go on some sort of reckless spending spree, I do expect them to be active.

Next, the biggest contract that we handed out last year that is hanging over our head is Drew's deal, not the others. His cap figure of $17.2 million is what we have to address moving forward even as we continue to make sure he gets his money. That can be done by re-working the deal and putting bonuses into it.

Finally, what you see is not what you get. I think sometimes we pay too much attention to the numbers when the devil is in the details. There are contracts that are signed that look really huge on the surface, but once you break them down you realize that they are not quite what they seem. You call the moves unrealistic? Fine. I shrug. Why? Well, it's not because I think we will definitely sign everyone I have suggested we target but I also recognize that it is not impractical or unrealistic. Jermon Bushrod is looking at a deal that likely will end up on the surface being 5 years, $40 million. Point is, his average we will likely be around $8 million a season. Long wants an average of $10 million a season. We have to make a move in that direction no matter how you look at so I do not see how that is unrealistic. Beyond that, the only big-price FA I projected is Mike Wallace. Ed Reed is a big name but at this juncture in his career, he's likely to command a salary similar to Darren Sharper. Larry Grant is not a big ticket FA. So, we are essentially replacing one tackle with another and then adding one high-priced FA.

I do not need to be encouraged by you, and I do not care if the Saints do not make any of the moves I suggested. The point of this thread was that the lost 2nd rounder should not send us into a panic as far as trading down to accumulate more picks and it also should not cause us to overlook the fact that we Mickey Loomis will put us into a position to fill as many needs heading to draft as he can. He has always taken this approach and this year will not change that philosophy!
 
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Camp Body
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Has Loomis EVER traded down?
In the first round, no. But he has traded down. For example, in 2006, he did so twice. We traded down in the 2nd round, acquired Jeff Faine from Cleveland and then took Roman Harper. In the same draft, we traded down in the fourth round, received Hollis Thomas from the Eagles who moved up to get Max Jean-Gilles. We moved down, took a potential future Hall-of-Famer in Jahri Evans and never looked back.
 

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