Nevimeister
I was there!
- Joined
- Mar 1, 2005
- Messages
- 5,361
- Reaction score
- 1,350
- Age
- 43
Offline
Firstly I acknowledge the downsides and risk: we have next to no draft capital and would need to give up a 1st next year (again), limited number of draft picks over 2-3 drafts (2018, 19 and 20) will bite and negatively impact depth. You're never one player away, TEs are one of the least impactful positions for rookies, does this guy not know we just signed Jared Cook
Despite all of the above, here is the case for making the move:
Drew Brees deep ball. He can still hit some when the offense is rolling and opposition defense is all at sea but when facing elite stop units Brees deep ball is a 50/50 proposition at best. Last year against Minnesota there were no deep shots other than from Taysom Hill. We got shut down by the Cowboys and against the Rams under throws deep were a real problem and could have been worse. A lot of interceptions in recent years have come from deep balls. The reality is we will be rolling out a 41 year old QB and need to maximise the options in short and intermediate areas. It is a formula that has worked for New England winning super bowls with an aged QB, Tom Brady has not been beating teams down the field. Further, Drew has always excelled and been the best in the business on seam routes, being an assassin with big bodied targets (think Colston in the slot, Jimmy Graham and more recently Mike Thomas when lined up inside)
The Saints would immediately be able to roll out 4 playmakers / mismatches every single play in Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Jared Cook and Noah Fant. Defenses and their co-ordinators would be having fits on the various options to cover in the run and pass game. With Sean Payton at the controls he could toy with them but most importantly keep everything running full steam against the best teams and at crunch time in the playoffs. Assuming a base of Thomas, Kamara, Cook and Fant let's look at the offensive options:
#1 Zach Line or Swing Tackle: With an extra blocker on the field and Cook / Fant lining up with their hand in the ground there could be 8 blockers for Kamara, an immediate problem for a base D and plenty of running lanes either for chunks of yards or outside runs. Bring in extra run defender(s) and the Saints can split out Cook/Fant, motion Kamara and it's almost unfair immediately
#2 Latavius Murray: This would be a 2 RB set with Kamara and Murray on the field with Cook/Fant and Thomas. So many plays could be run out of this set. Murray and Kamara both a threat to run it. Kamara motioned out and TEs in line or 1 split out, both split out. Even with Thomas, Cook, Fant and Kamara lined up like receivers there is the threat and option of Murray pounding it. Murray is enough of a receiving set if you went empty there is almost certainly a huge mismatch
#3 Another WR (likely Ginn): Despite my comments on Drew's deep ball if Ginn is on the field you still have to respect the deep threat. Most defenses will play more shallow to cover Kamara, Thomas and Cook/Fant and as this happens Ginn can force the D to play deeper and open up the middle.
#4 Taysom Hill: Teams did not know how to deal with Hill on the field last year. However, the vast majority of times he took snaps it was a run and with a year of film it may prove to be a bit of a novelty like the wildcat. With the receiving options on the field there is more of threat for Hill to pass and a regular option of putting Drew in the shotgun and either having Hill play FB in a Kamara run or another receiving threat
No-one has rolled out a TE one-two punch like Cook/Fant since Gronkowski and Hernandez were rookies in 2010 and they combined for 16 TDs year 1 and 24 in year 2. Cook is not a rookie and New England did not have playmakers like Kamara and Thomas
The player: Fant is more athletically gifted than George Kittle (also from Iowa) and has not been able to shown how dominant he can be whilst playing on the same team as TJ Hockenson and in an old-school offense. As a result he will likely get drafted lower than his talent warrants, late teens or early 20s which would be a range the Saints could trade up to giving up 62 and a 1st round pick next year (top 10 would be too rich). Next year's 1st round pick would likely be 30th or lower again. Quote from Doug Farrar, whose opinion and draft prospect assessments I respect: "If Noah Fant had spent his collegiate career in a high volume passing offense, we'd be talking about him differently. Think Travis Kelce route awareness matched to Jimmy Graham's downfield speed and contested-catch potential. Top-10 player, I think"
Despite all of the above, here is the case for making the move:
Drew Brees deep ball. He can still hit some when the offense is rolling and opposition defense is all at sea but when facing elite stop units Brees deep ball is a 50/50 proposition at best. Last year against Minnesota there were no deep shots other than from Taysom Hill. We got shut down by the Cowboys and against the Rams under throws deep were a real problem and could have been worse. A lot of interceptions in recent years have come from deep balls. The reality is we will be rolling out a 41 year old QB and need to maximise the options in short and intermediate areas. It is a formula that has worked for New England winning super bowls with an aged QB, Tom Brady has not been beating teams down the field. Further, Drew has always excelled and been the best in the business on seam routes, being an assassin with big bodied targets (think Colston in the slot, Jimmy Graham and more recently Mike Thomas when lined up inside)
The Saints would immediately be able to roll out 4 playmakers / mismatches every single play in Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Jared Cook and Noah Fant. Defenses and their co-ordinators would be having fits on the various options to cover in the run and pass game. With Sean Payton at the controls he could toy with them but most importantly keep everything running full steam against the best teams and at crunch time in the playoffs. Assuming a base of Thomas, Kamara, Cook and Fant let's look at the offensive options:
#1 Zach Line or Swing Tackle: With an extra blocker on the field and Cook / Fant lining up with their hand in the ground there could be 8 blockers for Kamara, an immediate problem for a base D and plenty of running lanes either for chunks of yards or outside runs. Bring in extra run defender(s) and the Saints can split out Cook/Fant, motion Kamara and it's almost unfair immediately
#2 Latavius Murray: This would be a 2 RB set with Kamara and Murray on the field with Cook/Fant and Thomas. So many plays could be run out of this set. Murray and Kamara both a threat to run it. Kamara motioned out and TEs in line or 1 split out, both split out. Even with Thomas, Cook, Fant and Kamara lined up like receivers there is the threat and option of Murray pounding it. Murray is enough of a receiving set if you went empty there is almost certainly a huge mismatch
#3 Another WR (likely Ginn): Despite my comments on Drew's deep ball if Ginn is on the field you still have to respect the deep threat. Most defenses will play more shallow to cover Kamara, Thomas and Cook/Fant and as this happens Ginn can force the D to play deeper and open up the middle.
#4 Taysom Hill: Teams did not know how to deal with Hill on the field last year. However, the vast majority of times he took snaps it was a run and with a year of film it may prove to be a bit of a novelty like the wildcat. With the receiving options on the field there is more of threat for Hill to pass and a regular option of putting Drew in the shotgun and either having Hill play FB in a Kamara run or another receiving threat
No-one has rolled out a TE one-two punch like Cook/Fant since Gronkowski and Hernandez were rookies in 2010 and they combined for 16 TDs year 1 and 24 in year 2. Cook is not a rookie and New England did not have playmakers like Kamara and Thomas
The player: Fant is more athletically gifted than George Kittle (also from Iowa) and has not been able to shown how dominant he can be whilst playing on the same team as TJ Hockenson and in an old-school offense. As a result he will likely get drafted lower than his talent warrants, late teens or early 20s which would be a range the Saints could trade up to giving up 62 and a 1st round pick next year (top 10 would be too rich). Next year's 1st round pick would likely be 30th or lower again. Quote from Doug Farrar, whose opinion and draft prospect assessments I respect: "If Noah Fant had spent his collegiate career in a high volume passing offense, we'd be talking about him differently. Think Travis Kelce route awareness matched to Jimmy Graham's downfield speed and contested-catch potential. Top-10 player, I think"