My Computer Power Ratings (1 Viewer)

Buhbooh

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I know not everyone is into computer polls, but I figured some may have an interest in this. I think these results are more accurate than the bozos at ESPN. :covri:

A few years back during one of LSU's championship years, when they had all the BCS controversy, I had decided to write my own computer football poll for college football. Recently, I dug it up, and ran it against the NFL (with a small tweak to the formula to make strength of schedule less meaningful), and this is what popped out: :hihi:

Basically, every team's game is 'graded', and given a value from 0-100 (similar to one being graded on a test). Factors considered are: strength of opponent, strength of opponent's opponents, margin of victory, road victories, and a few other minor things. The rating is a conglomeration of all of their grades of all their games.

Code:
VALT COMPUTER RANKINGS
 
RNK TEAM          RATING   SOS   RECRD   LASTGAME     LSTRNK    CHG
 1. New Orleans    84.96  16.00  4-0-0   W 24-10,NYJ     1   +19.96
 2. Denver         80.99  12.75  4-0-0   W 17-10,DAL     2   +16.66
 3. Minnesota      80.90  13.75  4-0-0   W 30-23,GB      6   +18.90
 4. Indianapolis   79.01  11.00  4-0-0   W 34-17,SEA     5   +16.01
 5. N.Y. Giants    73.78  07.25  4-0-0   W 27-16,@KC     3   +10.12
 6. N.Y. Jets      70.05  18.25  3-1-0   L 10-24,@NO     7    +8.05
 7. Cincinatti     69.36  17.25  3-1-0   W 23-20,@CLE   15   +28.36
 8. New England    68.65  18.50  3-1-0   W 27-21,BAL    11   +27.65
 9. Chicago        65.94  13.50  3-1-0   W 48-24,DET    10   +24.94
10. San Francisco  65.48  13.00  3-1-0   W 35-0,STL     14   +24.48
11. Baltimore      63.50  11.25  3-1-0   L 21-27,@NE     4    +0.50
12. Philidelphia   59.99  12.00  2-1-0   BYE             8   +16.99
13. Green Bay      56.14  19.75  2-2-0   L 23-30,@MIN    9   +14.14
14. Atlanta        55.86  11.00  2-1-0   BYE            16   +15.86
15. Pittsburgh     50.97  16.25  2-2-0   W 38-28,SD     24   +30.97
16. Jacksonville   50.41  14.50  2-2-0   W 37-17,TEN    21   +29.41
17. Houston        49.36  13.00  2-2-0   W 29-6,OAK     20   +28.36
18. Dallas         48.69  14.50  2-2-0   L 10-17,@DEN   12    +7.69
19. San Diego      47.48  12.75  2-2-0   L 28-38,@PIT   13    +6.48
20. Arizona        47.02  22.00  1-2-0   BYE            18   +26.02
21. Detroit        43.43  23.75  1-3-0   L 24-48,@CHI   25   +23.43
22. Washington     43.02  09.50  2-2-0   W 16-13,TBY    23   +23.02
23. Seattle        38.51  18.50  1-3-0   L 17-34,@IND   17   +16.84
24. Miami          36.23  17.00  1-3-0   W 38-10,BUF    28   +36.23
25. Buffalo        35.44  15.50  1-3-0   L 10-38,@MIA   22   +15.44
26. Oakland        34.34  14.75  1-3-0   L 6-29,@HOU    19   +13.34
27. Cleveland      31.33  26.25  0-4-0   L 20-23,CIN    26   +31.33
28. Tennessee      23.27  18.25  0-4-0   L 17-37,@JAX   27   +23.27
29. Kansas City    21.85  18.50  0-4-0   L 16-27,NYG    32   +21.85
30. Carolina       21.56  18.00  0-3-0   BYE            29   +21.56
31. St. Louis      19.48  15.00  0-4-0   L 0-35,@SF     30   +19.48
32. Tampa Bay      18.51  15.25  0-4-0   L 13-16,@WSH   31   +18.51

FYI: The Saint's 4 games were scored 79,89,77,and 93, respectively.
 

AceTW

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Awesome!

NEVER let any NFL or ESPN guys get ahold of that formula! ;)
 

jayhawk66

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I look at your rankings... and I don't think they're completely off at this point, as compared to the other rankings (ESPN, NFL.com, etc).

I would be more interested to see these week by week. If you have the time to post them, that would be awesome. Great job!
 

waazup

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Wow. Nice to see how ridiculously low the Giants SOS has been the first four (even five) weeks. Not saying they are overrated, but I'm fully confident we can whoop them.
 

VDK

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I know not everyone is into computer polls, but I figured some may have an interest in this. I think these results are more accurate than the bozos at ESPN. :covri:

A few years back during one of LSU's championship years, when they had all the BCS controversy, I had decided to write my own computer football poll for college football. Recently, I dug it up, and ran it against the NFL (with a small tweak to the formula to make strength of schedule less meaningful), and this is what popped out: :hihi:

Basically, every team's game is 'graded', and given a value from 0-100 (similar to one being graded on a test). Factors considered are: strength of opponent, strength of opponent's opponents, margin of victory, road victories, and a few other minor things. The rating is a conglomeration of all of their grades of all their games.

Code:
VALT COMPUTER RANKINGS
 
RNK TEAM          RATING   SOS   RECRD   LASTGAME     LSTRNK    CHG
 1. New Orleans    84.96  16.00  4-0-0   W 24-10,NYJ     1   +19.96
 2. Denver         80.99  12.75  4-0-0   W 17-10,DAL     2   +16.66
 3. Minnesota      80.90  13.75  4-0-0   W 30-23,GB      6   +18.90
 4. Indianapolis   79.01  11.00  4-0-0   W 34-17,SEA     5   +16.01
 5. N.Y. Giants    73.78  07.25  4-0-0   W 27-16,@KC     3   +10.12
 6. N.Y. Jets      70.05  18.25  3-1-0   L 10-24,@NO     7    +8.05
 7. Cincinatti     69.36  17.25  3-1-0   W 23-20,@CLE   15   +28.36
 8. New England    68.65  18.50  3-1-0   W 27-21,BAL    11   +27.65
 9. Chicago        65.94  13.50  3-1-0   W 48-24,DET    10   +24.94
10. San Francisco  65.48  13.00  3-1-0   W 35-0,STL     14   +24.48
11. Baltimore      63.50  11.25  3-1-0   L 21-27,@NE     4    +0.50
12. Philidelphia   59.99  12.00  2-1-0   BYE             8   +16.99
13. Green Bay      56.14  19.75  2-2-0   L 23-30,@MIN    9   +14.14
14. Atlanta        55.86  11.00  2-1-0   BYE            16   +15.86
15. Pittsburgh     50.97  16.25  2-2-0   W 38-28,SD     24   +30.97
16. Jacksonville   50.41  14.50  2-2-0   W 37-17,TEN    21   +29.41
17. Houston        49.36  13.00  2-2-0   W 29-6,OAK     20   +28.36
18. Dallas         48.69  14.50  2-2-0   L 10-17,@DEN   12    +7.69
19. San Diego      47.48  12.75  2-2-0   L 28-38,@PIT   13    +6.48
20. Arizona        47.02  22.00  1-2-0   BYE            18   +26.02
21. Detroit        43.43  23.75  1-3-0   L 24-48,@CHI   25   +23.43
22. Washington     43.02  09.50  2-2-0   W 16-13,TBY    23   +23.02
23. Seattle        38.51  18.50  1-3-0   L 17-34,@IND   17   +16.84
24. Miami          36.23  17.00  1-3-0   W 38-10,BUF    28   +36.23
25. Buffalo        35.44  15.50  1-3-0   L 10-38,@MIA   22   +15.44
26. Oakland        34.34  14.75  1-3-0   L 6-29,@HOU    19   +13.34
27. Cleveland      31.33  26.25  0-4-0   L 20-23,CIN    26   +31.33
28. Tennessee      23.27  18.25  0-4-0   L 17-37,@JAX   27   +23.27
29. Kansas City    21.85  18.50  0-4-0   L 16-27,NYG    32   +21.85
30. Carolina       21.56  18.00  0-3-0   BYE            29   +21.56
31. St. Louis      19.48  15.00  0-4-0   L 0-35,@SF     30   +19.48
32. Tampa Bay      18.51  15.25  0-4-0   L 13-16,@WSH   31   +18.51

FYI: The Saint's 4 games were scored 79,89,77,and 93, respectively.

I appreciate "scientific" analysis like this versus opinion polls. It would be nice if you could keep it up throughout the season and post weekly updates.
 

ETSNCO

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Well the giants did play the bucs and the chiefs. That would be like us playing the lions and the rams oh wait they are on our schedule.
 
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Buhbooh

Buhbooh

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Thanks guys.. I will post a weekly update since there is interest.
 

Muerte33

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Looks like the only way we will make a major move on ESPN's power ratings is to whoop the Giants. I cannot believe they have us at #4, just one notch above the Jets.
 

GW93

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The Saint's 4 games were scored 79,89,77,and 93, respectively.[/FONT]

So your program considers the Lions to be a better opponent than the Bills? LOL (at the Bills for sucking).

Neat idea. :9: Care to share the formula with us?
 
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Buhbooh

Buhbooh

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So your program considers the Lions to be a better opponent than the Bills? LOL (at the Bills for sucking).

Neat idea. :9: Care to share the formula with us?

Not necessarily (although it does have Detroit ranked higher than Buffalo) - there are other factors that go into the score besides how good an opponent is.

Sorry, can't divulge the details, as I hope for it to be used some day on a much bigger scale in college football, especially. I did describe somewhat how it works in the initial post.
 

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