My First Mock (Top 10) (1 Viewer)

Breezy9

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Here's my first stab at a mock draft up to the Saints pick:

1. Miami -- Chris Long, DE, Virginia. Although I seriously think Matt Ryan is an option here, Parcells loves to pick these 3-4 DE's and since Long is as good as they come, this year is no different.

2. St. Louis -- Jake Long, OT, Michigan. While I am not sold that Long is a top 5 pick, he is the best LOT prospect in the draft and St. Louis needs to keep Bulger upright unless they want another top 5 pick next season.

3. Atlanta -- Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC. This is a tough one, because I really wanted to go Matt Ryan here. Mike Smith is in charge now though and I think his defensive mentaility wins out.

4. Oakland -- Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas. This just seems right, doesn't it?

5. Kansas City -- Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College. Wow, aren't the Chiefs lucky. The "franchise" QB falls right into their laps. I know they have Brodie Croyle, PUH-LEESE......this is a no brainer.

6. New York Jets -- Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State. Great pick for the Jets and at a need position.

7. New England -- Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, TSU. The Pats need help in the back seven of their defense. I could also see this being Keith Rivers.

8. Baltimore -- Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville. I just have to do this. There has to be a team out there that is loving the fact that the best QB in the draft is being put out to pasture because his coach left him and he had one of the worst defenses in college football. Not to mention he played through an injury. I just think he goes much earlier than people are thinking.

9. Cincinnati -- Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU. As much as I want Dorsey, I think he goes here if the draft goes like this. I also think the Saints are on the phone with New England and Baltimore to get ahead of Cincy and steal him away.

10. New Orleans -- Keith Rivers, LB, USC. OK, I love the Vilma signing and the Morgan signing but let's be honest neither one is healthy and neither one is a sure thing. The Saints are set in my opinion with the corners they have. I'm not saying they won't look to add one in the second or third round, but I don't think a Leodis McKelvin here makes sense because he's at best your fourth corner. He does not beat out Gay or McKenzie and I think David is locked and loaded as the nickel guy this season. Rivers on the other hand can get his feet wet and be able to step in later in the season if Vilma or Morgan go down. He's without a doubt the most talented LB in the draft and the most talented player left on the board at this point.

Fire away!
 

Hey BAY BAY!!!

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1) Miami-Jake Long
2) St.Louis-Chris Long
3) Atlanta-Matt Ryan
4) Oakland-Glenn Dorsey
5) Chiefs-Ryan Clady
6) Jets-Darren McFadden
7) New England-Vernon Gholston
8) Ravens-Sedrick Ellis
9) Bengals-Kieth Rivers
10)NO Saints-Leodis McKelvin
 
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Kieth Rivers is great but in your terms do you really want a guy in the first round that is a back up in case someone goes down. Imo if i think rivers is the best guy at 10 im picking him to start not to sit the bench like brady quinn and hope someone gets hurt.
 

Mcshane

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I think you are right about Ryan falling, but I see him going to the Ravens/Jets. I don't think KC will quit on Croyle just yet. They are a running/defensive team now, they'll want that blocker for LJ more than they want to groom another QB.

I could see this:

1) Miami-Chris Long
2) St.Louis-Jake Long
3) Atlanta-Glenn Dorsey
4) Oakland-Darren McFadden
5) Chiefs-Ryan Clady
6) Jets-Vernon Gholston
7) New England-Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
8) Ravens-Matt Ryan
9) Bengals-Sedrick Ellis
10)NO Saints-Leodis McKelvin or Keith Rivers
 
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Breezy9

Breezy9

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Kieth Rivers is great but in your terms do you really want a guy in the first round that is a back up in case someone goes down. Imo if i think rivers is the best guy at 10 im picking him to start not to sit the bench like brady quinn and hope someone gets hurt.

Well yeah but I was kind of stating in terms of not if one of them go down, it's more like when based on their previous injury history.

If we pick a corner, DRC or McKelvin neither one starts......or really even comes close to starting. I am not sure there is a position on the roster other than S or DT and possibly TE where a rookie can come in and start. There are no safties or tight ends worthy of the pick and with Dorsey and Ellis already gone in my draft, there is no DT's either.
 

waazup

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I could see this:

1) Miami- Chris Long
2) St.Louis- Glenn Dorsey
3) Atlanta- Matt Ryan
4) Oakland- Darren McFadden
5) Chiefs- Jake Long
6) Jets- Vernon Gholston
7) New Orleans (trade with NE) - Sedrick Ellis
8) Ravens- Leodis Mckelvin
9) Bengals- Keith Rivers
10)New England- Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie

I really can't see New England staying at 7 because it looks like they are going to take cornerback. Taking any corner at 7 would be a reach because there is no consensus no. 1 corner, and at 10, the Patriots could still get a top 2 cornerback.

I mean, if I watch Sedrick Ellis go to the Bengals with the 9th overall, and we are sitting there with the 10th overall...I'll be pretty freaking angry.
 

baarbogast

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Well so far I have seen mocks and mbs having Cincy take:
Quentin Groves
Derrick Harvey
Sedrick Ellis \
Ryan Clady

It goes back to the debate, do they want to be a base 4-3 or 3-4 and if they get their LBs back- Pollack and Thurman.
 

msusaintsfan

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I could see this:

1) Miami- Chris Long
2) St.Louis- Glenn Dorsey
3) Atlanta- Matt Ryan
4) Oakland- Darren McFadden
5) Chiefs- Jake Long
6) Jets- Vernon Gholston
7) New Orleans (trade with NE) - Sedrick Ellis
8) Ravens- Leodis Mckelvin
9) Bengals- Keith Rivers
10)New England- Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie

I really can't see New England staying at 7 because it looks like they are going to take cornerback. Taking any corner at 7 would be a reach because there is no consensus no. 1 corner, and at 10, the Patriots could still get a top 2 cornerback.

I mean, if I watch Sedrick Ellis go to the Bengals with the 9th overall, and we are sitting there with the 10th overall...I'll be pretty freaking angry.

This is almost exactly he way I see it but I can see NE staying put and taking Rivers, because as much as they need corners their LBs as a whole are getting pretty long in the tooth.
 

DarkBuddha

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NE's LBs played high school ball in the same era as my dad. I think they will trade down and load up on young LB's
 
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Breezy9

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Do you want to pay the price though to move from 10 to 7......it's going to be at least our third round pick.
 

bergeaux

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I don't like trading up. Unless there is a FINAL key to a team that is needed and you really only need backups (which is NOT our case). Draft picks are the most important thing a team has. I look at it as taking a risky gamble and making it even more risky. EVERY draft pick is risky. By consolidating risky bets into one, you just make yourself even more vulnerable to busting on a pick.

Think of it like a playing at a roulette wheel. You have $100 and you could put 7 bets on the board with certain odds:

The first bet is worth $30 and is going to be a 1-1 bet (black/red or odd/even). Pay off $60

The second bet is going to be $20 with a 1-1.5 bet (don't know where to put it, but you get the idea). Pay off $50

The third is going to be a worth $15 with a 1-3 odds (one of the three columns on the board). Pay off $45

The fourth bet is going to be worth $12 and has odds of 1-5. Pay off $60

The fifth bet is worth $10 and has odds of 1-12 (one of the rows on the board) Pay off $120 (hitting on a fifth rounder IS a big payoff)

The sixth and seventh bets are each worth $7 and $6 with the same odds. 1-36. Not likely to hit, but if you do, man-o-man! Pay off $216 (again it is that big a pay off if you think about it)

Now when you trade your later round picks to move around in the first or second round you really don't change your odds. Players in those rounds are all about the same risk. You're just choosing who you get to take a risk on. So in effect you are giving up one of your later bets and consolidating your money from both bets into the one bet. ie, trading a 4th round bet of $12 with your first round bet of $30 means that your 50/50 bet is now actually worth $42 and it BETTER hit. You only have $58 total left. I would rather let the $12 bet lie and keep the $30 bet as is. Heck if you could trade back a bit and get another $12 bet why not take it? Now you are playing with $112 and have cut your odds in half in that round and are more likely to hit a $60 pay off on one of them, which by the way would equal a 1st round bet. :)


Oh and BTW, you need 50+ players to have a roster?
 

Infoman

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The draft pick value chart says that there is a 100 point difference between the #8 overall pick and the #10 over all pick... and there is a 200 point difference between the #7 overall pick and the #10 overall pick. Basically, the difference of a 3rd or 4th round pick.

If Dorsey or Ellis is there at #7 or #8... the Saints have to look to trade up with NE or BAL to get either guy.

Give up the 3rd this year... and even an additional second day pick next year to sweeten the deal if you have to.
 

bergeaux

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The draft pick value chart says that there is a 100 point difference between the #8 overall pick and the #10 over all pick... and there is a 200 point difference between the #7 overall pick and the #10 overall pick. Basically, the difference of a 3rd or 4th round pick.

If Dorsey or Ellis is there at #7 or #8... the Saints have to look to trade up with NE or BAL to get either guy.

Give up the 3rd this year... and even an additional second day pick next year to sweeten the deal if you have to.

You have a good point Infoman, and that is the common belief, but let's be honest... What's the bust rate of a top 10 pick vs. a 10-20 pick. Is it really THAT different? I would love to see some hard evidence on that. I believe the value at the top is to get the player you want.
 

Infoman

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You have a good point Infoman, and that is the common belief, but let's be honest... What's the bust rate of a top 10 pick vs. a 10-20 pick. Is it really THAT different? I would love to see some hard evidence on that. I believe the value at the top is to get the player you want.

I don't have the numbers in front of me to support it, but I would think that the bust rate isn't all THAT different... at the same time though... every draft is different... each draft has it's own strong positions and weak positions. And this year (IMO), DT is weak outside of Dorsey and Ellis. And if DT is a position that the Saints are targeting in the draft... moving up to take one of those 2 guys justifies the value in moving up to get one of them.
 

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