New Hampshire Primary prediction thread (1 Viewer)

[Inkspot47]

Obama actually won the delegate count in NH 12-11...if CNN has it posted correctly.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/


Actual pledged delegate totals:
Clinton, 183
Obama, 78
Edwards, 52
Richardson, 19
Kucinich, 1


Republican totals
Romney, 30
Huckabee, 21
McCain, 10
Thompson, 6
Paul, 2
Hunter, 1
Giuliani, 1

 

[Saint by the Bay]

Obama actually won the delegate count in NH 12-11...if CNN has it posted correctly.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/


Actual pledged delegate totals:
Clinton, 183
Obama, 78
Edwards, 52
Richardson, 19
Kucinich, 1


Republican totals
Romney, 30
Huckabee, 21
McCain, 10
Thompson, 6
Paul, 2
Hunter, 1
Giuliani, 1

I'm assuming he got their Super Delegates? :dunno:

Honestly I don't even fully understand the Super Delegates process. I know Hillary has a ton of them which is why she's so far ahead in total delegate count.

 

[Mr. Blue Sky]

Sorry. No link. Just going off memory of the Andre Mitchell report...

Ok, dug up a link.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/01/03/extra_bonus_quote_of_the_day.html

"This room was, until about five or six minutes ago, completely empty. This is a manufactured 'celebration.' It really felt more like a funeral as people started strolling in from upstairs where they had obviously been gathered. This is unlike anything that I've ever seen, a completely empty, dirge-like event."

-- NBC's Andrea Mitchell, on Sen. Hillary Clinton's speech after the Iowa caucuses.

Thanks for the link-- but it doesn't say anything in there about "union workers being trucked in" or whatever. Not doubting you, I just like to see allgations like that backed up...

 

[dapperdan]

Thanks for the link-- but it doesn't say anything in there about "union workers being trucked in" or whatever. Not doubting you, I just like to see allgations like that backed up...

Andrea Mitchell mentioned it in her report. I saw the report live and am simply reporting what I saw on the report. But if you saw the empty hall less than a 1/2 hour after the concession speech, you'd probably be much less suspect. Andrea didn't actually use the words "trucked in", but the words she used (I can't remember the exact words) communicated the same idea. I remembered it because it stood out, I don't remember Mitchell mentioning such veiled negative comments at a Dem candidate in the past.

 

[DMaestro]

Why have substance in a concession speech? He's given a great deal of substance in the debates, on his website and in stump speeches.

Concession speeches are for inspiring your troops and showing your still ready to fight not for substance.

Agreed. Just as the Clinton camp complains that Hillary shouldn't be seen as merely experience without change, I think people tend to be locked in on the idea that Obama is all style with no substance.

 

[JimEverett]

What does it matter if a campaign brings in union workers? Campaigns are always bringing certain people in - at least the good ones.
And those events usually clear out very fast for the losers after teh candidate gives their speech.

 

[DMaestro]

Yeah, I'm really disappointed. Another four, possibly eight years of Clinton is bad enough, but the real problem lies in the fact that it sets the stage for decades more partisanship and political nonsense.

This is my fear. The moment Hillary Clinton gets elected (God forbid), Republicans would automatically line up on one side of the room, Democrats on the other, and the mud would start flying. She brings too much political baggage, and her enemies are set in stone.

My heart can't take another 4 years of "Clinton is Satan/vast right-wing conspiracy" smut.

 

[JimEverett]

This is my fear. The moment Hillary Clinton gets elected (God forbid), Republicans would automatically line up on one side of the room, Democrats on the other, and the mud would start flying. She brings too much political baggage, and her enemies are set in stone.

My heart can't take another 4 years of "Clinton is Satan/vast right-wing conspiracy" smut.

A lot of people are saying that Michael Bloomberg will run as an independent if Hillary gets the nod. If Obama gets it, he will sit out. Don;t know how accurate that is but I have heard it from several of the talking heads.

 

[Saint by the Bay]

A lot of people are saying that Michael Bloomberg will run as an independent if Hillary gets the nod. If Obama gets it, he will sit out. Don;t know how accurate that is but I have heard it from several of the talking heads.

Bloomberg has denied that he will be a candidate.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119975545778173501.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

 

[blackngold4877]

This is my fear. The moment Hillary Clinton gets elected (God forbid), Republicans would automatically line up on one side of the room, Democrats on the other, and the mud would start flying. She brings too much political baggage, and her enemies are set in stone.

My heart can't take another 4 years of "Clinton is Satan/vast right-wing conspiracy" smut.

This is a damn good point and something that I've thought many times myself. This country is so divided right now as it is, does anyone honestly think that electing a Clinton will help that? It's time for a fresh face in the White House that can hopefully get us out of that mess, bring some unity to this country, and get us, and our money, back to a place of respectability here and in the world community.

 

[DMaestro]

Obama's a great orator...as good as they get. However, listening to his speech today he seems more like a Preacher than a Statesman.

Calculated move, IMO. The ringing inflection, the reference to Moses and the "Promised Land", the repeated mantra "Yes I can".... you'd better believe Obama's already playing to the black baptist crowd in SC.

It's critical to Obama's campaign that he be perceived as "one of us" when it comes to the black vote in SC. He cannot come across as an overly-polished funny-talking Uncle Tom outsider from Chicago. I think his ancestral ties will help him tremendously. A sizable portion of the black population in SC has close genetic and cultural ties to Africa, and they may very well see him as a brother returned home.

 

[JimEverett]

I understand what y'all are saying about Hillary - and I am not trying to make an argument for her. But do you believe it would be any different with Obama? I mean do you think the Republicans will make nice with Obama? Most of hte Republicans I have heard have talked about how Obama is left of Clinton. There is no way they are suddenly going to enter a bipartisan mode. Nor will the Democrats if its Huckabee. Nor should they. It should be hard for a President to get his/her agenda through. That is why our system is superior to the multi-party states.

 

[Saint by the Bay]

I don't think Hillary will be any more divisive than anyone else. The nature of our system today and the existence of alternative media on both sides makes it almost impossible to not have that scenario.

My concern as I've expressed before is 28 years of Clinton \ Bush rule (GB 1 was VP for 8 years of that) and I don't like the results. They are owned by the same people basically and many of the same people have been involved at various levels of government for the full 28 years. Even Bush recently joked about them passing the White House back and forth and commented that "maybe it's their turn again". Enough is enough. I am really ready to see this political dynasty end and see what another group of media merchants and insiders can do.

Will it be better? Who knows, but I'm ready to find out.

 

[JimEverett]

Calculated move, IMO. The ringing inflection, the reference to Moses and the "Promised Land", the repeated mantra "Yes I can".... you'd better believe Obama's already playing to the black baptist crowd in SC.

It's critical to Obama's campaign that he be perceived as "one of us" when it comes to the black vote in SC. He cannot come across as an overly-polished funny-talking Uncle Tom outsider from Chicago. I think his ancestral ties will help him tremendously. A sizable portion of the black population in SC has close genetic and cultural ties to Africa, and they may very well see him as a brother returned home.

Good point.
And as Saint by the Bay pointed out after Iowa - the crowd behind him was all white. You notice there were some black faces behind him in New Hampshire. Obama is going to Dixie.

 

[TPS]

>>A lot of people are saying that Michael Bloomberg will run as an independent if Hillary gets the nod. If Obama gets it, he will sit out. Don;t know how accurate that is but I have heard it from several of the talking heads.

Bloomberg held a meeting last weekend(?) with a bunch of middle-of-the roaders including former Georgia Senator Sam Nunn (who should have been president a long time ago) to discuss things. It hasn't been widely reported, but it's probably out there somewhere. Bloomberg gets in the New York State 3-way if it's Hillary vs. Rudy.

Read More [tm DD]:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119975545778173501.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

A few other points:

Hillary: I found it annoying that she noted that voters in New Hampshire cast their ballots with their "hearts AND minds" in an obvious swipe at Obama. Count me in as someone, regardless of whether or not she planned the tears, who was disgusted by the reference in her speech last night. I find her to be ridiculously disingenuous and believe she is running for power issues.

Fox News: The younger Fox News Poll guy who used to chair the focus groups for CNN said the polling system is broken because there is a new energy among people who have not voted in the past that are being missed. Translation = Democrats are energized.

Romney: Still remains the most starched and blow-dried candidate with a shot to win. He was the second candidate crossed off my list after Tancredo, and there is no way I would vote for that guy.

McCain: The speeches are terrible. I rather when he answers questions or does one-on-ones. He still garners the support of independents and crossover voters who trust him and find him to be a sensible alternative to the last several administrations going back perhaps to Reagan that just tell you what they want you to know or what they think you want to hear.

Paul: Has a sizable chunk of the disaffected voters and has energized many of them. His campaign has not taken off as his supporters, many radical from various political persuasions, have hoped though they remain energized and have a cause to rally around.

CNN: It's really no contest anymore as to who has the best election coverage for 2008. Their touch screen graphics are way out in front of anyone else's. Having former Drug Czar William Bennett and Christian Coalition founder Ralph Reed on their set legitimizes their coverage just as Fox somewhat legitimizes theres with Juan Wiliams and MSNBC with Pat Buchanan. The only thing better for CNN would be if Wolf Blitzer stepped aside and let Anderson Cooper run the show rather than leading the panel discussions.

Huckabee: I was listening to WWL Radio this morning and they are ridiculously misinformed as are most of their callers. Huckabee appeals to a certain segment of the population, a segment that is generally not present in New England (church going and often evangelical Christian Conservatives). There is NO SURPRISE whatsoever that he finished in 3rd, and this does nothing to diminish his opportunities in southern states and some of the plains states where a plain speaking Baptist Minister can score some victories. IMHO, Huckabee is more likely to end up as a VP candidate on someone else's ticket, but I'm not sure who that someone else might be. Can Rudy get to the convention with enough support from the larger, metropolitan states to have a voice and enough delegates to work something out in the cigar-smoke filled back rooms? Does Thompson even care, just a little bit? Will Romney trump Rudy when they go head to head in some of the states? Is a brokered convention likely or will McCain win the party primaries and possibly the election with democrats and independents? Or is he too old? Stay tuned.

TPS