Nitpicking The Offense (1 Viewer)

St. PJ

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Every NFL team has a group of analysts, scouts, quality personnel and coaches who spend a good portion of their time scouting the opponent. They'll typically have a comprehensive data analysis showcasing the tendencies the opponent exhibits in every situation, complete with probabilities of what an opponent will or won't do in every down and distance, personnel package, location on the field both horizontally and vertically, time on the clock, whether playing with a lead or tied or trailing, and every other imaginable metric there exists quantifiable data that could be used to aid gaining an advantage in the micro-gameplanning of what is termed "situational football".

The most obsessive and consistently brilliant coaches, the greatest coaches, spend an inordinate amount of time and detail in preparing and practicing their team based solely on situational football with particular emphasis on exploiting the historical data they have on the opposing team, players, coordinators, and officials (yes, they track their tendencies too).

If you remember Tracy Porter's pick 6 in Super Bowl 44 against Peyton Manning, you'll recognize that play was a direct result of what we're discussing when listening to not only his post game comments about the play, but also what the Saints players and coaches were discussing on the sideline just prior to that play (thank you, NFL Films).

Most of you know this, and most if you are aware that the greatest teams and playcallers are experts when it comes to self-scouting. They will have their staff prepare the same analysis on them, so that they can call plays in all those situations with the intent and purpose of breaking their tendencies.

Now the point and goal of all this is to ultimately become unpredictable, but on a smaller scale to cause the opponent that fraction of a second of indecisiveness...a hesitation that results in your player gaining a step on the opponent, whether it be on offense or defense. When it's a game of inches, often that is the difference on the 4 or 5 plays that ultimately decide a game.

First and foremost, when your offense scores 46 points, they aren't the reason for a loss. That's a little captain obvious, but i wanted to preface what I'm about to say, because the following is nitpicks, not the cause or reason. That said, these nitpicks are trends that do cost the Saints and cause me to scream at coach or the tv and in general usually surface about 5 to 7 times per game, no matter the situation or margin of lead or deficit.

There are about five significant trends that should have been addressed by now, and four showed their ugly head again today.

Trend #1 - when the Saints have the momentum, often all the momentum -- typically when the Saints have the opponent on their heels and Drew Brees is practically being vintage unstoppable, Payton will remove Drew and insert Taysom at QB. Over 90% of the time, a variation of the same two types of plays are ran. Now that we're in season 3 of this, the opponent has it well diagnosed and defended. The result isnt some spark or brilliant haha i fooled you play that wasn't needed in the situation, but rather, a less than desirable down and distance that puts the offense behind the sticks and often kills the momentum Drew had established.

After scoring TD's on their first 4 drives, the 49ers score a 35 yard touchdown on a trick play where a WR on a double reverse throws a TD. Not to be outdone, the first offensive play after the ensuing kickoff, Drew stays on the sideline. STOP. The 49'ers have not been able to stop Drew. There's less than 6 minutes left in the half, and you are holding onto a 27-21 lead because they have zero answer for Drew and your defense was able to force one stop in a game shaping up to be a last possession wins nailbighter. This will likely be your last possession of the first half, and San Fran receives the ball to start the second half.

On this particular play, Payton attempts a tendency breaker-- Taysom is going to actually throw it and attempt a deep shot. The entire league has been waiting on this, and the Niners weren't fooled. Taysom salvages the down and distance by avoiding a sack and picking up 6 yards for 2nd and 4. After Drew returns to hand off to Kamara on a between the tackles 3 yard gain, Taysom comes back for a 3rd and 1 conversion attempt.

The play features two WR's in a close formation lined up to the left, a TE that motions to the left, then Kamara motions to the left. The only problem with this is the Niners defense remains stagnant. Not a single DB or LB follows the TE or Kamara to the left. Taysom snaps and runs to the right, directly to an area of the field with five defenders and only the RT and WR to block.

The result was a tackle for a loss on a play that everyone has seen over the last 3 years, and a holding penalty that occurred because the play, pre-snap, had zero chance of succeeding. At snap, the closest defender is 9 yards away from Kamara, who is between the numbers and the sideline. Drew fires that rocket immediately, regardless of what was called, and we have a first down.

Granted, with Drew in the game, and 4 skill players on the left, a defense is going to give Kamara more attention, but that's not the point. The point is your HOF QB, on a critical 3rd down conversion needed to keep the Niners from building more momentum, knows how to read a defense and doesnt try a stupid arse play doomed for failure because the defense has it diagnosed and doent react to your sending two skill players to the opposite side of the field.

My point is that when the opposing defense hasn't been able to stop Drew, dont kill a drive before it starts by stopping Drew yourself to be in a hurry to show everyone how forking smart you are with gadget plays immediately after your defense gets embarrassed by one you didnt think of.

Instead of eating clock on the way to a FG or TD that puts the Saints back up two scores heading into the half, we're punting to the Niners so they can take the lead.

There is a time and a place, great situations to insert Taysom -- like on the other side of the 50 and when you're already in FG range or when the defense is all over Drew and WR's aren't getting open. But it's time to evolve his package and build options into your play or coach him to read a damn defense or call a time out when you dont have the numbers. Had that play had any kind of option, like throwing a laser to Alvin, that would be a little easier to accept, even if the result was the same.

Trend #2 - giving Kamara between the tackles rushes when Latavius Murray is averaging over 7 yards per rush. Against the panthers, who were giving up a woeful 4.9 yards per rush on the season thru the first 10 games, and who lost their top run stopping DT for the year very early in the game as well as their best all around DT for most of the game, despite Murray just gashing them for 7 carries for 61 yards and Carolina can't really stop him, he is forgotten. Today, Murray has 7 carries for 69 yards, and in both games, despite Murray averaging around 9 yards a carry, Payton abandons him in favor of trying to get Kamara on track.

We all know what Alvin can do. But against those two defenses (actually all year when both are healthy), Payton has been giving Alvin much more of those carries that are more typically Ingram/Murray plays. I've no problem trying to get Alvin back to being Alvin, and with trying to break tendency, as like with Taysom, teams have diagnosed and are in much better positions to defend the edge and in space plays that have been Kamara's bread and butter.

But as with Trend #1, my issue is when Payton is doing this. In both instance, he is abandoning something the opponent hasn't been able to answer. In effect, when the defense cant really stop Murray, Payton stops him for them. Using Kamara for first down runs in running formations, right up the gut against the Niners' bevy of first rounder dominant defensive linemen who have shut down the run most of the year wasn't very effective, while the opposite was true every time Murray got the ball.

We've seen games where through the first 5 carries between the tackles, Murray has 4 carries for more than 8 yards and 1 carry for 2 yards, and Kamara has 5 carries between the tackled with a long of 2. What's Payton do? The opposite of what he should. I don't so much mind continuing to give Alvin those types of carries - eventually he will break one and peel off a 20+ yarder. But you can't abandon Murray in the process.

That 5th drive/1st 3 and out where Payton got cute with Taysom on 1st and 3rd downs with a Kamara between the tackles run sandwiched between them -- I'd bet Murray had a much better chance of getting the first down on both 2nd and 3rd down. When the 49'ers turn it over after receiving 2nd half kickoff, we gave another 1st down between the tackles handoff to Kamara. Three and out where we should have been capitalizing on momentum from actually forcing a turnover.

Loosen them up with Murray, get them reacting to Kamara on the edge, THEN start feeding Kamara between the tackles.

Trend #3 - abandoning what works. Unfortunately, this is a trend that has plagued the Saints offense throughout Payton's tenure (except the handful of games Pete got to call plays). Coach Payton is very very good at what he does. But he has an ego that often is both a blessing and a curse. His offense scored 46 points today, but it could have easily scored more if he didnt kill drives by abandoning what he has established in an effort to get some other aspect working.

For goodness sake, when something is working and working to the point that every drive you've had resulted in a touchdown, make the defense force you to change what you are doing. If they haven't proved they can stop it, don't put it in your back pocket to work on establishing something else.

I remember exactly one game where Payton stuck with something the defense couldn't stop, even when it wasn't the diversity and types of plays Payton loves to establish. Do you recall that Bills game where Buffalo couldnt stop the run, and Payton never stopped calling running plays? It was so dominant and glorious.

I can think of numerous regular season and post season games in this 3 year run that wound up being nailbighters and so much closer than they should have been, not because of goofy turnovers or fluke plays, but because Payton moved away from what they couldn't stop in order to try and establish something he didnt need. This often occurs when the Saints have built a nice lead. The opposing defense doesn't make some miraculous adjustment and force him to try something else; he simply goes there on his own accord and all the sudden we're having multiple drives end prematurely... only to return to what he stuck in his back pocket when the game the Saints were about to run away with is down to a drive with minutes left they need for the win.

Trend #4 - when down by more than one score in the 4th qtr, the offense shows zero sense of urgency until there is 6 minutes or less left in the game. Back in the pre-bountygate glory years of 2009 and 2011, the Saints used to be one of the top 3 teams for amount of no-huddle, muddle-huddle, and uptempo plays. They put defenses on their heels, and often put the petal to the medal when they had personnel matchups that couldn't stop them.

Now, with the urge to put #7 in the game and perhaps not having his 3 WR roles adequately filled, we very rarely see the Saints do this. Payton has always been known for the gazillion personnel packages he uses, and early in a game, especially with scripted plays, there is much strategy involved with seeing how the defense will align and defend each package. In addition, perhaps with the lack of established and experienced talent the Saints have at WR, the offense has had to morph into something more...controlled. Having longer drives does keep our defense off the field, so that plays an equal part in the lack of uptempo and no-huddle and muddle huddle type offense you now see LSU running.

The issue, however, is since the Saints moved away from this some years ago, they fail to go back to it when the situation dictates it. Down two scores or more in a 4th Qtr, the Saints almost always (in the last 5 years) start going to a hurry up or at the very least uptempo offense at least one drive too late. Simply, they often look as if they have no urgency and are conceding a loss when they find themselves in that position, and only when it gets to the point that a score and an onside kick is your last chance do they revert to hurry up / no huddle. Didnt hurt us this game, just something that confounds me.

Trend #5 - failure to evolve and break trends. I believe 2009 and 2011, as a playcaller, were Sean Payton's best seasons. One could argue he has done a better job with less other years, and he's had a resurgence with the addition of Kamara / Hill.

Yet each innovation has a shelf life, as opponents are disseminating what success other teams have had at defending it, and have copied or countered when they've had the personnel to do so.

I cited 2009 and 2011 for a very specific reason. In each of those seasons you would see the evolution of a play. In a particular formation/ personnel package / alignment, you saw the following from week to week: a-gap dive to Deuce. Fake a-gap dive to Deuce, pivot 90 degrees and hit WR in right flat. Fake a-gap dive to Deuce, pivot 90 degrees and pump fake to WR in right flat, flip 180 degrees and fire to WR in left flat. By the time we get to Patriots game where Drew has perfect passer rating, the play morphs into Fake a-gap dive to Deuce, pivot 90 degrees and pump fake to WR in right flat, flip 180 degrees and fake to WR in left flat, square up and hit Dave Thomas running down the seam wide open.

Since 2013, we've not seen that kind of evolution in this offense. What we've seen, as well as the opposing defenses, is predictability when it comes to plays designed for Graham, Cooks, Sproles, Spiller, Kamara, and Hill.

What works works, until it doesn't. Innovative minds, like Payton, Shanahan, and even McVay are trying to do one of 2 things - use the same concept / play out of multiple formations, personnel packages, and alignments, OR use the same formations and personnel packages, but design every play (whether run or pass) to look the same.

Sean has really been a master when it comes to alignment...using same personnel but lining them up where they aren't expected to be to either force an unfavorable matchup for the defense or force the defense to change what they would normally do in order to defend that player properly, and at the very least force the defense to declare what they are doing pre snap to give Drew the advantage of knowing where to go.

An example of this is lining Michael Thomas or Colston up at TE. Either Drew will have gimme completion against a LB or S who can't defend a WR1 but is treating him as if he were Josh Hill, or the defense has to do something they havent really worked out the mechanics of like putting a top CB where a LB would normally go. Those arent the only options, but they illustrate the genius of what Sean has done by fooling with alignments.

Where the problem lies is when Sean finds something innovative that works, he has a tendency of believing it is still innovative and going to catch a defense by surprise months and years later, when it is no longer fresh and innovative but has been studied, copied, and adapted by others, and defenses have caught up.

And too often, he goes for the payoff without first doing the dirty work that sets up the payoff. Misdirection doesn't work when the "normal" plays that get the defense over pursuing havent established the threat they would overpursue to stop. It's akin to trying 5 play action passes before calling your first running play, or giving the back 7 a reason to bite on play action. Or trying to get a playmaker in space when we've not created that space by first forcing the defense to defend the entire field, both horizontally AND vertically. Or trying to misdirect a defense with ghost / decoy motions both pre and post snap, if we never once give the ball to the player in motion.

Point is Payton often doesn't establish the viable threat before trying to exploit it. Due to past analytics, it might be effective the first time he goes to it, but the next 5 consecutive times there is zero success because the "threat" that was meant to misdirect never became viable.



All that said, this is nitpicking. But they are trends; trends I'm sure you can see in your mind's eye; trends i don't have to convince you of their existence. If the casual fan can recognize them....

Good thing we have a Drew Brees and Michael Thomas -- players whose talent and timing are so great that even when the defense knows what we're about to do, more times than not, they can't stop it. I'm simply saying that while the defense will (and rightly so) get the blame for this loss, there is room for improvement with our play calling on offense, even if our play caller is a stinking innovative genius.
 
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I don't know about all of those things but the Taysom at QB plays have become extremely risky. Losing yardage or going for nothing is more and more common. The niners were not fooled AT ALL. We can no longer afford to fall behind the chains. What will keep them honest is if he starts completing some passes out of these formations. Unfortunately, he doesn't show much ability in the passing game beyond a few trick plays. Once they have to account for his actual QB play as well as his running ability then these plays will work better, IMO.

I am no expert but that's what I see.

Brees on fire. Murray on fire. Let's put Taysom in for 2 of 3 downs in a series? Guaranteed punt.

Anyway, it is nitpicking. 46 points at home should be a victory for any team.
 
I wish you would be just as detailed analyzing the colossal failure on the defensive side of the ball, as you are nitpicking on the offense.

But the O scored 46 points in this game....so the question is....could they have done better? marginally, maybe.....still, we"ll never know how the opponent D reacts to similar plays.....maybe they get fooled once, but after that, they will realize what's coming next time, and they will be waiting for those plays...teams wise up fast at any trend, and Sean Payton is very much aware of that. Example....how many times the 9es D can be fooled if the Saints start running Murray more often? I'm sure the answer is....in short order! I guarantee Murray would not have had those yds/carry.

The real problem is....how come the Saints D is tanking out in this most inopportune time? This D didn't give up this many points since the Bucs game last year.,....remember? Why is it that the D was playing great with TB @QB than with Brees @QB? With Brees, the Saints D forgot to show up in the clowns game, and now against the 9rs..... but why didn't they slack off when TB was running the show?.....Again, I am not questioning the abilities of any QB.....I'm just pointing out the level of play of the Saints D when Brees is @QB vs when TB is at the helm....

This game was lost by the Saints D.....nobody argues contrary to that. However the reasons for the losses, remain a mystery....
 
Why would CSP continue to call a pass to the flat when the opposing team shuts it down time after time? Why is Murray on the sidelines when he is the more productive RB that day?
The offense did it's part is this game, but I am still scratching my head at CSP's play calling sometimes.
 
Wall of text I don't feel like reading. Lets see 10+ downvotes if it is worth reading!
 
Every NFL team has a group of analysts, scouts, quality personnel and coaches who spend a good portion of their time scouting the opponent. They'll typically have a comprehensive data analysis showcasing the tendencies the opponent exhibits in every situation, complete with probabilities of what an opponent will or won't do in every down and distance, personnel package, location on the field both horizontally and vertically, time on the clock, whether playing with a lead or tied or trailing, and every other imaginable metric there exists quantifiable data that could be used to aid gaining an advantage in the micro-gameplanning of what is termed "situational football".

The most obsessive and consistently brilliant coaches, the greatest coaches, spend an inordinate amount of time and detail in preparing and practicing their team based solely on situational football with particular emphasis on exploiting the historical data they have on the opposing team, players, coordinators, and officials (yes, they track their tendencies too).

If you remember Tracy Porter's pick 6 in Super Bowl 44 against Peyton Manning, you'll recognize that play was a direct result of what we're discussing when listening to not only his post game comments about the play, but also what the Saints players and coaches were discussing on the sideline just prior to that play (thank you, NFL Films).

Most of you know this, and most if you are aware that the greatest teams and playcallers are experts when it comes to self-scouting. They will have their staff prepare the same analysis on them, so that they can call plays in all those situations with the intent and purpose of breaking their tendencies.

Now the point and goal of all this is to ultimately become unpredictable, but on a smaller scale to cause the opponent that fraction of a second of indecisiveness...a hesitation that results in your player gaining a step on the opponent, whether it be on offense or defense. When it's a game of inches, often that is the difference on the 4 or 5 plays that ultimately decide a game.

First and foremost, when your offense scores 46 points, they aren't the reason for a loss. That's a little captain obvious, but i wanted to preface what I'm about to say, because the following is nitpicks, not the cause or reason. That said, these nitpicks are trends that do cost the Saints and cause me to scream at coach or the tv and in general usually surface about 5 to 7 times per game, no matter the situation or margin of lead or deficit.

There are about five significant trends that should have been addressed by now, and four showed their ugly head again today.

Trend #1 - when the Saints have the momentum, often all the momentum -- typically when the Saints have the opponent on their heels and Drew Brees is practically being vintage unstoppable, Payton will remove Drew and insert Taysom at QB. Over 90% of the time, a variation of the same two types of plays are ran. Now that we're in season 3 of this, the opponent has it well diagnosed and defended. The result isnt some spark or brilliant haha i fooled you play that wasn't needed in the situation, but rather, a less than desirable down and distance that puts the offense behind the sticks and often kills the momentum Drew had established.

After scoring TD's on their first 4 drives, the 49ers score a 35 yard touchdown on a trick play where a WR on a double reverse throws a TD. Not to be outdone, the first offensive play after the ensuing kickoff, Drew stays on the sideline. STOP. The 49'ers have not been able to stop Drew. There's less than 6 minutes left in the half, and you are holding onto a 27-21 lead because they have zero answer for Drew and your defense was able to force one stop in a game shaping up to be a last possession wins nailbighter. This will likely be your last possession of the first half, and San Fran receives the ball to start the second half.

On this particular play, Payton attempts a tendency breaker-- Taysom is going to actually throw it and attempt a deep shot. The entire league has been waiting on this, and the Niners weren't fooled. Taysom salvages the down and distance by avoiding a sack and picking up 6 yards for 2nd and 4. After Drew returns to hand off to Kamara on a between the tackles 3 yard gain, Taysom comes back for a 3rd and 1 conversion attempt.

The play features two WR's in a close formation lined up to the left, a TE that motions to the left, then Kamara motions to the left. The only problem with this is the Niners defense remains stagnant. Not a single DB or LB follows the TE or Kamara to the left. Taysom snaps and runs to the right, directly to an area of the field with five defenders and only the RT and WR to block.

The result was a tackle for a loss on a play that everyone has seen over the last 3 years, and a holding penalty that occurred because the play, pre-snap, had zero chance of succeeding. At snap, the closest defender is 9 yards away from Kamara, who is between the numbers and the sideline. Drew fires that rocket immediately, regardless of what was called, and we have a first down.

Granted, with Drew in the game, and 4 skill players on the left, a defense is going to give Kamara more attention, but that's not the point. The point is your HOF QB, on a critical 3rd down conversion needed to keep the Niners from building more momentum, knows how to read a defense and doesnt try a stupid arse play doomed for failure because the defense has it diagnosed and doent react to your sending two skill players to the opposite side of the field.

My point is that when the opposing defense hasn't been able to stop Drew, dont kill a drive before it starts by stopping Drew yourself to be in a hurry to show everyone how forking smart you are with gadget plays immediately after your defense gets embarrassed by one you didnt think of.

Instead of eating clock on the way to a FG or TD that puts the Saints back up two scores heading into the half, we're punting to the Niners so they can take the lead.

There is a time and a place, great situations to insert Taysom -- like on the other side of the 50 and when you're already in FG range or when the defense is all over Drew and WR's aren't getting open. But it's time to evolve his package and build options into your play or coach him to read a damn defense or call a time out when you dont have the numbers. Had that play had any kind of option, like throwing a laser to Alvin, that would be a little easier to accept, even if the result was the same.

Trend #2 - giving Kamara between the tackles rushes when Latavius Murray is averaging over 7 yards per rush. Against the panthers, who were giving up a woeful 4.9 yards per rush on the season thru the first 10 games, and who lost their top run stopping DT for the year very early in the game as well as their best all around DT for most of the game, despite Murray just gashing them for 7 carries for 61 yards and Carolina can't really stop him, he is forgotten. Today, Murray has 7 carries for 69 yards, and in both games, despite Murray averaging around 9 yards a carry, Payton abandons him in favor of trying to get Kamara on track.

We all know what Alvin can do. But against those two defenses (actually all year when both are healthy), Payton has been giving Alvin much more of those carries that are more typically Ingram/Murray plays. I've no problem trying to get Alvin back to being Alvin, and with trying to break tendency, as like with Taysom, teams have diagnosed and are in much better positions to defend the edge and in space plays that have been Kamara's bread and butter.

But as with Trend #1, my issue is when Payton is doing this. In both instance, he is abandoning something the opponent hasn't been able to answer. In effect, when the defense cant really stop Murray, Payton stops him for them. Using Kamara for first down runs in running formations, right up the gut against the Niners' bevy of first rounder dominant defensive linemen who have shut down the run most of the year wasn't very effective, while the opposite was true every time Murray got the ball.

We've seen games where through the first 5 carries between the tackles, Murray has 4 carries for more than 8 yards and 1 carry for 2 yards, and Kamara has 5 carries between the tackled with a long of 2. What's Payton do? The opposite of what he should. I don't so much mind continuing to give Alvin those types of carries - eventually he will break one and peel off a 20+ yarder. But you can't abandon Murray in the process.

That 5th drive/1st 3 and out where Payton got cute with Taysom on 1st and 3rd downs with a Kamara between the tackles run sandwiched between them -- I'd bet Murray had a much better chance of getting the first down on both 2nd and 3rd down. When the 49'ers turn it over after receiving 2nd half kickoff, we gave another 1st down between the tackles handoff to Kamara. Three and out where we should have been capitalizing on momentum from actually forcing a turnover.

Loosen them up with Murray, get them reacting to Kamara on the edge, THEN start feeding Kamara between the tackles.

Trend #3 - abandoning what works. Unfortunately, this is a trend that has plagued the Saints offense throughout Payton's tenure (except the handful of games Pete got to call plays). Coach Payton is very very good at what he does. But he has an ego that often is both a blessing and a curse. His offense scored 46 points today, but it could have easily scored more if he didnt kill drives by abandoning what he has established in an effort to get some other aspect working.

For goodness sake, when something is working and working to the point that every drive you've had resulted in a touchdown, make the defense force you to change what you are doing. If they haven't proved they can stop it, don't put it in your back pocket to work on establishing something else.

I remember exactly one game where Payton stuck with something the defense couldn't stop, even when it wasn't the diversity and types of plays Payton loves to establish. Do you recall that Bills game where Buffalo couldnt stop the run, and Payton never stopped calling running plays? It was so dominant and glorious.

I can think of numerous regular season and post season games in this 3 year run that wound up being nailbighters and so much closer than they should have been, not because of goofy turnovers or fluke plays, but because Payton moved away from what they couldn't stop in order to try and establish something he didnt need. This often occurs when the Saints have built a nice lead. The opposing defense doesn't make some miraculous adjustment and force him to try something else; he simply goes there on his own accord and all the sudden we're having multiple drives end prematurely... only to return to what he stuck in his back pocket when the game the Saints were about to run away with is down to a drive with minutes left they need for the win.

Trend #4 - when down by more than one score in the 4th qtr, the offense shows zero sense of urgency until there is 6 minutes or less left in the game. Back in the pre-bountygate glory years of 2009 and 2011, the Saints used to be one of the top 3 teams for amount of no-huddle, muddle-huddle, and uptempo plays. They put defenses on their heels, and often put the petal to the medal when they had personnel matchups that couldn't stop them.

Now, with the urge to put #7 in the game and perhaps not having his 3 WR roles adequately filled, we very rarely see the Saints do this. Payton has always been known for the gazillion personnel packages he uses, and early in a game, especially with scripted plays, there is much strategy involved with seeing how the defense will align and defend each package. In addition, perhaps with the lack of established and experienced talent the Saints have at WR, the offense has had to morph into something more...controlled. Having longer drives does keep our defense off the field, so that plays an equal part in the lack of uptempo and no-huddle and muddle huddle type offense you now see LSU running.

The issue, however, is since the Saints moved away from this some years ago, they fail to go back to it when the situation dictates it. Down two scores or more in a 4th Qtr, the Saints almost always (in the last 5 years) start going to a hurry up or at the very least uptempo offense at least one drive too late. Simply, they often look as if they have no urgency and are conceding a loss when they find themselves in that position, and only when it gets to the point that a score and an onside kick is your last chance do they revert to hurry up / no huddle. Didnt hurt us this game, just something that confounds me.

Trend #5 - failure to evolve and break trends. I believe 2009 and 2011, as a playcaller, were Sean Payton's best seasons. One could argue he has done a better job with less other years, and he's had a resurgence with the addition of Kamara / Hill.

Yet each innovation has a shelf life, as opponents are disseminating what success other teams have had at defending it, and have copied or countered when they've had the personnel to do so.

I cited 2009 and 2011 for a very specific reason. In each of those seasons you would see the evolution of a play. In a particular formation/ personnel package / alignment, you saw the following from week to week: a-gap dive to Deuce. Fake a-gap dive to Deuce, pivot 90 degrees and hit WR in right flat. Fake a-gap dive to Deuce, pivot 90 degrees and pump fake to WR in right flat, flip 180 degrees and fire to WR in left flat. By the time we get to Patriots game where Drew has perfect passer rating, the play morphs into Fake a-gap dive to Deuce, pivot 90 degrees and pump fake to WR in right flat, flip 180 degrees and fake to WR in left flat, square up and hit Dave Thomas running down the seam wide open.

Since 2013, we've not seen that kind of evolution in this offense. What we've seen, as well as the opposing defenses, is predictability when it comes to plays designed for Graham, Cooks, Sproles, Spiller, Kamara, and Hill.

What works works, until it doesn't. Innovative minds, like Payton, Shanahan, and even McVay are trying to do one of 2 things - use the same concept / play out of multiple formations, personnel packages, and alignments, OR use the same formations and personnel packages, but design every play (whether run or pass) to look the same.

Sean has really been a master when it comes to alignment...using same personnel but lining them up where they aren't expected to be to either force an unfavorable matchup for the defense or force the defense to change what they would normally do in order to defend that player properly, and at the very least force the defense to declare what they are doing pre snap to give Drew the advantage of knowing where to go.

An example of this is lining Michael Thomas or Colston up at TE. Either Drew will have gimme completion against a LB or S who can't defend a WR1 but is treating him as if he were Josh Hill, or the defense has to do something they havent really worked out the mechanics of like putting a top CB where a LB would normally go. Those arent the only options, but they illustrate the genius of what Sean has done by fooling with alignments.

Where the problem lies is when Sean finds something innovative that works, he has a tendency of believing it is still innovative and going to catch a defense by surprise months and years later, when it is no longer fresh and innovative but has been studied, copied, and adapted by others, and defenses have caught up.

And too often, he goes for the payoff without first doing the dirty work that sets up the payoff. Misdirection doesn't work when the "normal" plays that get the defense over pursuing havent established the threat they would overpursue to stop. It's akin to trying 5 play action passes before calling your first running play, or giving the back 7 a reason to bite on play action. Or trying to get a playmaker in space when we've not created that space by first forcing the defense to defend the entire field, both horizontally AND vertically. Or trying to misdirect a defense with ghost / decoy motions both pre and post snap, if we never once give the ball to the player in motion.

Point is Payton often doesn't establish the viable threat before trying to exploit it. Due to past analytics, it might be effective the first time he goes to it, but the next 5 consecutive times there is zero success because the "threat" that was meant to misdirect never became viable.



All that said, this is nitpicking. But they are trends; trends I'm sure you can see in your mind's eye; trends i don't have to convince you of their existence. If the casual fan can recognize them....

Good thing we have a Drew Brees and Michael Thomas -- players whose talent and timing are so great that even when the defense knows what we're about to do, more times than not, they can't stop it. I'm simply saying that while the defense will (and rightly so) get the blame for this loss, there is room for improvement with our play calling on offense, even if our play caller is a stinking innovative genius.
Having a Drew Brees allows him to overcome all this. When he didn’t have a.Brees in New York he got his play sheet taken away.

Just a matter of weeks ago he was doing a fantastic job being patient and riding the strength of the OL. Since the bye he’s been back to old tricks.

Anyway Drew Brees converted 6 TDs, so in the end it’s nitpicks, Just makes it frustrating to watch because it makes you feel that at some future date these tendencies are going to cost a win. You see these things play out over and over and think “will he ever learn?”...”this will kill us when Brees is gone”....

Anyway, the big deal is they to need figure out why they can’t defend the field with under a minute left, why Allen’s situational schemes fall on thier face.

He’s supposed to a secondary expert...he ran the secondary 2015.to 2016...
 
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Having a Drew Brees allows him to overcome all this. When he didn’t have a.Brees in New York he got his play sheet taken away.

Just a matter of weeks ago he was doing a fantastic job being patient and riding the strength of the OL. Since the bye he’s been back to old tricks.

Anyway Drew Brees converted 6 TDs, so in the end it’s nitpicks, Just makes it frustrating to watch because it makes you feel that at some future date these tendencies are going to cost a win. You see these things play out over and over and think “will he ever learn?”...”this will kill us when Brees is gone”....

Anyway, the big deal is they to need figure out why they can’t defend the field with under a minute left, why Allen’s situational schemes fall on thier face.

He’s supposed to a secondary expert...he ran the secondary 2015.to 2016...
I never understood this either. It always seems like at the start of each season it takes a few weeks of tape to see what the opponent is doing before the secondary isn't woeful. I don't understand what's going on there. It be easier to nitpick if we saw the entire game from the defensive point of view, but most plays you can't even tell how they are aligned watching the television broadcast.
 
Holy novel batman! I need some coffee
I was doing that from my phone. I meant to do it quick, but got carried away, and it took way too long to type by one finger at a time. Last time I'll start a thread on my phone. Plus, when on phone, it's hard to see how long something is going, because once sentence looks like a gigantic paragraph.
 
I have no issue with the Taysom plays as they pickup yards most of the time. I do think the SP hasnt been creative enough with his play calling for Taysom. How about some playaction rollouts or keep the defense honest by having him throw it more. 99% of the time it's a run.
 
I have no issue with the Taysom plays as they pickup yards most of the time. I do think the SP hasnt been creative enough with his play calling for Taysom. How about some playaction rollouts or keep the defense honest by having him throw it more. 99% of the time it's a run.

yeah I think that will help. My thought is that if SP trusted him to pass the ball then he would let him.
 
I will agree that every Taysom play lately seems like it is turning into either QB Sweep Outside Left - or QB Sweep Outside Right. (Usually the opposite side of the formation that Kamara motions toward)

Have to start breaking that tendency by allowing Taysom a true Pass option, so if he sees a stacked box, or no one going out with a motioned Kamara (or a Linebacker or mismatch for the Defense on him) they should just instantly have a hotread or silent audible to a Quick slant to easily pick up 5-10 yards.

The one Taysom pass attempt yesterday was a Deep shot play, that really gave him no chance because they were long developing, 2 man routes that were covered well. I feel Taysom would be more effective running a true, RPO where he could read the box count, and keep on a favorable box count or Edge Defender misplaying, but get quick easy passes off to move the chains if they are giving them.
 
Every NFL team has a group of analysts, scouts, quality personnel and coaches who spend a good portion of their time scouting the opponent. They'll typically have a comprehensive data analysis showcasing the tendencies the opponent exhibits in every situation, complete with probabilities of what an opponent will or won't do in every down and distance, personnel package, location on the field both horizontally and vertically, time on the clock, whether playing with a lead or tied or trailing, and every other imaginable metric there exists quantifiable data that could be used to aid gaining an advantage in the micro-gameplanning of what is termed "situational football".

The most obsessive and consistently brilliant coaches, the greatest coaches, spend an inordinate amount of time and detail in preparing and practicing their team based solely on situational football with particular emphasis on exploiting the historical data they have on the opposing team, players, coordinators, and officials (yes, they track their tendencies too).

If you remember Tracy Porter's pick 6 in Super Bowl 44 against Peyton Manning, you'll recognize that play was a direct result of what we're discussing when listening to not only his post game comments about the play, but also what the Saints players and coaches were discussing on the sideline just prior to that play (thank you, NFL Films).

Most of you know this, and most if you are aware that the greatest teams and playcallers are experts when it comes to self-scouting. They will have their staff prepare the same analysis on them, so that they can call plays in all those situations with the intent and purpose of breaking their tendencies.

Now the point and goal of all this is to ultimately become unpredictable, but on a smaller scale to cause the opponent that fraction of a second of indecisiveness...a hesitation that results in your player gaining a step on the opponent, whether it be on offense or defense. When it's a game of inches, often that is the difference on the 4 or 5 plays that ultimately decide a game.

First and foremost, when your offense scores 46 points, they aren't the reason for a loss. That's a little captain obvious, but i wanted to preface what I'm about to say, because the following is nitpicks, not the cause or reason. That said, these nitpicks are trends that do cost the Saints and cause me to scream at coach or the tv and in general usually surface about 5 to 7 times per game, no matter the situation or margin of lead or deficit.

There are about five significant trends that should have been addressed by now, and four showed their ugly head again today.

Trend #1 - when the Saints have the momentum, often all the momentum -- typically when the Saints have the opponent on their heels and Drew Brees is practically being vintage unstoppable, Payton will remove Drew and insert Taysom at QB. Over 90% of the time, a variation of the same two types of plays are ran. Now that we're in season 3 of this, the opponent has it well diagnosed and defended. The result isnt some spark or brilliant haha i fooled you play that wasn't needed in the situation, but rather, a less than desirable down and distance that puts the offense behind the sticks and often kills the momentum Drew had established.

After scoring TD's on their first 4 drives, the 49ers score a 35 yard touchdown on a trick play where a WR on a double reverse throws a TD. Not to be outdone, the first offensive play after the ensuing kickoff, Drew stays on the sideline. STOP. The 49'ers have not been able to stop Drew. There's less than 6 minutes left in the half, and you are holding onto a 27-21 lead because they have zero answer for Drew and your defense was able to force one stop in a game shaping up to be a last possession wins nailbighter. This will likely be your last possession of the first half, and San Fran receives the ball to start the second half.

On this particular play, Payton attempts a tendency breaker-- Taysom is going to actually throw it and attempt a deep shot. The entire league has been waiting on this, and the Niners weren't fooled. Taysom salvages the down and distance by avoiding a sack and picking up 6 yards for 2nd and 4. After Drew returns to hand off to Kamara on a between the tackles 3 yard gain, Taysom comes back for a 3rd and 1 conversion attempt.

The play features two WR's in a close formation lined up to the left, a TE that motions to the left, then Kamara motions to the left. The only problem with this is the Niners defense remains stagnant. Not a single DB or LB follows the TE or Kamara to the left. Taysom snaps and runs to the right, directly to an area of the field with five defenders and only the RT and WR to block.

The result was a tackle for a loss on a play that everyone has seen over the last 3 years, and a holding penalty that occurred because the play, pre-snap, had zero chance of succeeding. At snap, the closest defender is 9 yards away from Kamara, who is between the numbers and the sideline. Drew fires that rocket immediately, regardless of what was called, and we have a first down.

Granted, with Drew in the game, and 4 skill players on the left, a defense is going to give Kamara more attention, but that's not the point. The point is your HOF QB, on a critical 3rd down conversion needed to keep the Niners from building more momentum, knows how to read a defense and doesnt try a stupid arse play doomed for failure because the defense has it diagnosed and doent react to your sending two skill players to the opposite side of the field.

My point is that when the opposing defense hasn't been able to stop Drew, dont kill a drive before it starts by stopping Drew yourself to be in a hurry to show everyone how forking smart you are with gadget plays immediately after your defense gets embarrassed by one you didnt think of.

Instead of eating clock on the way to a FG or TD that puts the Saints back up two scores heading into the half, we're punting to the Niners so they can take the lead.

There is a time and a place, great situations to insert Taysom -- like on the other side of the 50 and when you're already in FG range or when the defense is all over Drew and WR's aren't getting open. But it's time to evolve his package and build options into your play or coach him to read a damn defense or call a time out when you dont have the numbers. Had that play had any kind of option, like throwing a laser to Alvin, that would be a little easier to accept, even if the result was the same.

Trend #2 - giving Kamara between the tackles rushes when Latavius Murray is averaging over 7 yards per rush. Against the panthers, who were giving up a woeful 4.9 yards per rush on the season thru the first 10 games, and who lost their top run stopping DT for the year very early in the game as well as their best all around DT for most of the game, despite Murray just gashing them for 7 carries for 61 yards and Carolina can't really stop him, he is forgotten. Today, Murray has 7 carries for 69 yards, and in both games, despite Murray averaging around 9 yards a carry, Payton abandons him in favor of trying to get Kamara on track.

We all know what Alvin can do. But against those two defenses (actually all year when both are healthy), Payton has been giving Alvin much more of those carries that are more typically Ingram/Murray plays. I've no problem trying to get Alvin back to being Alvin, and with trying to break tendency, as like with Taysom, teams have diagnosed and are in much better positions to defend the edge and in space plays that have been Kamara's bread and butter.

But as with Trend #1, my issue is when Payton is doing this. In both instance, he is abandoning something the opponent hasn't been able to answer. In effect, when the defense cant really stop Murray, Payton stops him for them. Using Kamara for first down runs in running formations, right up the gut against the Niners' bevy of first rounder dominant defensive linemen who have shut down the run most of the year wasn't very effective, while the opposite was true every time Murray got the ball.

We've seen games where through the first 5 carries between the tackles, Murray has 4 carries for more than 8 yards and 1 carry for 2 yards, and Kamara has 5 carries between the tackled with a long of 2. What's Payton do? The opposite of what he should. I don't so much mind continuing to give Alvin those types of carries - eventually he will break one and peel off a 20+ yarder. But you can't abandon Murray in the process.

That 5th drive/1st 3 and out where Payton got cute with Taysom on 1st and 3rd downs with a Kamara between the tackles run sandwiched between them -- I'd bet Murray had a much better chance of getting the first down on both 2nd and 3rd down. When the 49'ers turn it over after receiving 2nd half kickoff, we gave another 1st down between the tackles handoff to Kamara. Three and out where we should have been capitalizing on momentum from actually forcing a turnover.

Loosen them up with Murray, get them reacting to Kamara on the edge, THEN start feeding Kamara between the tackles.

Trend #3 - abandoning what works. Unfortunately, this is a trend that has plagued the Saints offense throughout Payton's tenure (except the handful of games Pete got to call plays). Coach Payton is very very good at what he does. But he has an ego that often is both a blessing and a curse. His offense scored 46 points today, but it could have easily scored more if he didnt kill drives by abandoning what he has established in an effort to get some other aspect working.

For goodness sake, when something is working and working to the point that every drive you've had resulted in a touchdown, make the defense force you to change what you are doing. If they haven't proved they can stop it, don't put it in your back pocket to work on establishing something else.

I remember exactly one game where Payton stuck with something the defense couldn't stop, even when it wasn't the diversity and types of plays Payton loves to establish. Do you recall that Bills game where Buffalo couldnt stop the run, and Payton never stopped calling running plays? It was so dominant and glorious.

I can think of numerous regular season and post season games in this 3 year run that wound up being nailbighters and so much closer than they should have been, not because of goofy turnovers or fluke plays, but because Payton moved away from what they couldn't stop in order to try and establish something he didnt need. This often occurs when the Saints have built a nice lead. The opposing defense doesn't make some miraculous adjustment and force him to try something else; he simply goes there on his own accord and all the sudden we're having multiple drives end prematurely... only to return to what he stuck in his back pocket when the game the Saints were about to run away with is down to a drive with minutes left they need for the win.

Trend #4 - when down by more than one score in the 4th qtr, the offense shows zero sense of urgency until there is 6 minutes or less left in the game. Back in the pre-bountygate glory years of 2009 and 2011, the Saints used to be one of the top 3 teams for amount of no-huddle, muddle-huddle, and uptempo plays. They put defenses on their heels, and often put the petal to the medal when they had personnel matchups that couldn't stop them.

Now, with the urge to put #7 in the game and perhaps not having his 3 WR roles adequately filled, we very rarely see the Saints do this. Payton has always been known for the gazillion personnel packages he uses, and early in a game, especially with scripted plays, there is much strategy involved with seeing how the defense will align and defend each package. In addition, perhaps with the lack of established and experienced talent the Saints have at WR, the offense has had to morph into something more...controlled. Having longer drives does keep our defense off the field, so that plays an equal part in the lack of uptempo and no-huddle and muddle huddle type offense you now see LSU running.

The issue, however, is since the Saints moved away from this some years ago, they fail to go back to it when the situation dictates it. Down two scores or more in a 4th Qtr, the Saints almost always (in the last 5 years) start going to a hurry up or at the very least uptempo offense at least one drive too late. Simply, they often look as if they have no urgency and are conceding a loss when they find themselves in that position, and only when it gets to the point that a score and an onside kick is your last chance do they revert to hurry up / no huddle. Didnt hurt us this game, just something that confounds me.

Trend #5 - failure to evolve and break trends. I believe 2009 and 2011, as a playcaller, were Sean Payton's best seasons. One could argue he has done a better job with less other years, and he's had a resurgence with the addition of Kamara / Hill.

Yet each innovation has a shelf life, as opponents are disseminating what success other teams have had at defending it, and have copied or countered when they've had the personnel to do so.

I cited 2009 and 2011 for a very specific reason. In each of those seasons you would see the evolution of a play. In a particular formation/ personnel package / alignment, you saw the following from week to week: a-gap dive to Deuce. Fake a-gap dive to Deuce, pivot 90 degrees and hit WR in right flat. Fake a-gap dive to Deuce, pivot 90 degrees and pump fake to WR in right flat, flip 180 degrees and fire to WR in left flat. By the time we get to Patriots game where Drew has perfect passer rating, the play morphs into Fake a-gap dive to Deuce, pivot 90 degrees and pump fake to WR in right flat, flip 180 degrees and fake to WR in left flat, square up and hit Dave Thomas running down the seam wide open.

Since 2013, we've not seen that kind of evolution in this offense. What we've seen, as well as the opposing defenses, is predictability when it comes to plays designed for Graham, Cooks, Sproles, Spiller, Kamara, and Hill.

What works works, until it doesn't. Innovative minds, like Payton, Shanahan, and even McVay are trying to do one of 2 things - use the same concept / play out of multiple formations, personnel packages, and alignments, OR use the same formations and personnel packages, but design every play (whether run or pass) to look the same.

Sean has really been a master when it comes to alignment...using same personnel but lining them up where they aren't expected to be to either force an unfavorable matchup for the defense or force the defense to change what they would normally do in order to defend that player properly, and at the very least force the defense to declare what they are doing pre snap to give Drew the advantage of knowing where to go.

An example of this is lining Michael Thomas or Colston up at TE. Either Drew will have gimme completion against a LB or S who can't defend a WR1 but is treating him as if he were Josh Hill, or the defense has to do something they havent really worked out the mechanics of like putting a top CB where a LB would normally go. Those arent the only options, but they illustrate the genius of what Sean has done by fooling with alignments.

Where the problem lies is when Sean finds something innovative that works, he has a tendency of believing it is still innovative and going to catch a defense by surprise months and years later, when it is no longer fresh and innovative but has been studied, copied, and adapted by others, and defenses have caught up.

And too often, he goes for the payoff without first doing the dirty work that sets up the payoff. Misdirection doesn't work when the "normal" plays that get the defense over pursuing havent established the threat they would overpursue to stop. It's akin to trying 5 play action passes before calling your first running play, or giving the back 7 a reason to bite on play action. Or trying to get a playmaker in space when we've not created that space by first forcing the defense to defend the entire field, both horizontally AND vertically. Or trying to misdirect a defense with ghost / decoy motions both pre and post snap, if we never once give the ball to the player in motion.

Point is Payton often doesn't establish the viable threat before trying to exploit it. Due to past analytics, it might be effective the first time he goes to it, but the next 5 consecutive times there is zero success because the "threat" that was meant to misdirect never became viable.



All that said, this is nitpicking. But they are trends; trends I'm sure you can see in your mind's eye; trends i don't have to convince you of their existence. If the casual fan can recognize them....

Good thing we have a Drew Brees and Michael Thomas -- players whose talent and timing are so great that even when the defense knows what we're about to do, more times than not, they can't stop it. I'm simply saying that while the defense will (and rightly so) get the blame for this loss, there is room for improvement with our play calling on offense, even if our play caller is a stinking innovative genius.
I agree with just about everything. There are some very strong trends and mid-steps in my opinion. While at the same time, Payton shredded the #1 defense. It should have been enough to win this last game. But I agree with the mis-timed calls and the stubbornness to leave some things on the cutting floor.
 

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