nola.com: NFL oddsmakers tell us there are only five teams better than the Saints (1 Viewer)

muzzy

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Vegas thinks Philly is the only NFC team better than the Saints:

New Orleans Saints are respected by NFL oddsmakers
by Peter Finney, The Times-Picayune
Friday September 18, 2009, 7:48 AM


As we speak, the NFL oddsmakers tell us there are only five teams better than the New Orleans Saints.

And not by much.

Based on neutral field power ratings, the Pittsburgh Steelers are better by three points, the Philadelphia Eagles by two points, and the New England Patriots, San Diego Chargers and Tennessee Titans by one point.

One week into the season, the Saints are even with the Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts and New York Giants.

I bring this up because never before has a Saints football team been regarded so highly by the Morning Line folks.

More: http://www.nola.com/saints/index.ssf/2009/09/new_orleans_saints_are_respect.html
 
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BoNcHiE

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Oddsmakers have never won or lost a game. So what Vegas thinks does not matter at all.

Which exactly why what they say does matter and is often more accurate then the media. They are in it to make money. There's no bias and plenty of research going into their lines they set.

If Vegas thinks you are good, you are usually pretty good.
 

buzd

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Which exactly why what they say does matter and is often more accurate then the media. They are in it to make money. There's no bias and plenty of research going into their lines they set.

If Vegas thinks you are good, you are usually pretty good.

This is true, but we are probably weighted a little bit worse than we should be, because as a smaller market, we have less people betting for us, and traditionally the Saints have been terrible against the spread.

The lines makers' goal isn't to balance the matchup with the spread, it's to balance the betting. That said, it's still nice to see the Saints ranked that high. It reflects the betting in that the Saints are being bet to win.
 

Brees Lee

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Really nice for a change, Vegas sees us as 2nd best team in the NFC. Eventhough, I think we are THE BEST in the NFL...
 

GoldRush26

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Oddsmakers have never won or lost a game. So what Vegas thinks does not matter at all.

With sports betting being a billion dollar a year industry (if it can be called an industry) I'd think what Vegas thinks is extremely pertinent. They run their industry based on the facts, and not on biases or opinion.
 

FFT22

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This is true, but we are probably weighted a little bit worse than we should be, because as a smaller market, we have less people betting for us, and traditionally the Saints have been terrible against the spread.

The lines makers' goal isn't to balance the matchup with the spread, it's to balance the betting. That said, it's still nice to see the Saints ranked that high. It reflects the betting in that the Saints are being bet to win.

Not one of the elements I bolded matters to Vegas. Those are things that "Squares" concern themselves with. Linesmakers know that "terrible against the spread" is ESPN talk and has no bearing on the current game.

As far as the Saints have fewer betting on them - again, that's square mentality. A real gambler is simply not concerned with team allegiance.

Anyway, all that goes to say, what Vegas thinks of your team is about as good a yardstick there is, far better than anything you will find on ESPN
 

O MAN

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Oddsmakers have never won or lost a game. So what Vegas thinks does not matter at all.

Not that I'm trying to appear a smart-off, but if you don't think they know what they are doing, try playing football with them--they are darn good!
 

cdogg

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Not one of the elements I bolded matters to Vegas. Those are things that "Squares" concern themselves with. Linesmakers know that "terrible against the spread" is ESPN talk and has no bearing on the current game.

As far as the Saints have fewer betting on them - again, that's square mentality. A real gambler is simply not concerned with team allegiance.

Anyway, all that goes to say, what Vegas thinks of your team is about as good a yardstick there is, far better than anything you will find on ESPN

Yeah, but did you know that the Saints are 0-32 when trying to cover the spread when their QB goes over 300 yards at home, then they go on the road to a team in the northeast, whose QB has rib problems and might have another QB make his first start of the season, while having a RB go over 100 yards, but less than 200 yards? Its a gimme!
 

mmule

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Yeah, but did you know that the Saints are 0-32 when trying to cover the spread when their QB goes over 300 yards at home, then they go on the road to a team in the northeast, whose QB has rib problems and might have another QB make his first start of the season, while having a RB go over 100 yards, but less than 200 yards? Its a gimme!

:spaz2: :bartmat: :whiteflag1: :a_hit: :help-sos:
 

Lil Deuce

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Not one of the elements I bolded matters to Vegas. Those are things that "Squares" concern themselves with. Linesmakers know that "terrible against the spread" is ESPN talk and has no bearing on the current game.

As far as the Saints have fewer betting on them - again, that's square mentality. A real gambler is simply not concerned with team allegiance.

Anyway, all that goes to say, what Vegas thinks of your team is about as good a yardstick there is, far better than anything you will find on ESPN

Yeah. Sorta. Kinda.

The whole purpose behind the spread is to even out the action. Oddsmakers set and adjust the spread to get as close to a 50/50 betting pattern as possible. So smaller market has an affect, albeit a small one.

This is really oversimplified, but the betting patterns that oddsmakers use to determine odds are typically "insider" betting patterns which tend to be bigger and more knowledgeable bets. They also look at public betting patterns, but do not give that nearly as much credence as insider betting.

So, again, small market (public betting) has an affect on the odds, but it is minimal in comparison to other factors.

We, as the betting public, tend to look at odds as an attempt to even up the teams and indeed it has that effect to some extent. But that is not at all the concern nor the intent of the oddsmakers. They are trying to get maximum profit for the betting establishment and that entails driving the action as close to neutral as possible.

So, while it may be semantics to some extent, IMHO odds are not about which is the better team, but how to even out the action.
 

Bartyboy

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The lines makers' goal isn't to balance the matchup with the spread, it's to balance the betting. That said, it's still nice to see the Saints ranked that high. It reflects the betting in that the Saints are being bet to win.


Yes that is correct the odds makers goal is to get an equal amount of money bet on both sides. That being said I believe that means the Saints will usually beat the spread more often than not.

Hey did you notice the 3 "experts" on the NFL network Baldenger, Sharper and Thiesman all picked the Saints to win out right against the Eagles.
 

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