Obama or McCain (1 Viewer)

[Pure Energy]

I've turned off the TV or changed the channel on many sporting events when I thought the outcome was determined but before the game officially ended. Although the McCain nomination is nearly a fait accompli (McCain has 939 delegates to Huckabee's 245. It takes 1,191 delegates to secure the Republican nomination) the Obama/Clinton race is much, much closer and I'm not so certain Hillary won't win Texas as she did California and take over the lead. I think this thread is a bit premature but if Obama wins Texas handily, then I would agree that Obama will be the nominee.

 

[superchuck500]

I've turned off the TV or changed the channel on many sporting events when I thought the outcome was determined but before the game officially ended. Although the McCain nomination is nearly a fait accompli (McCain has 939 delegates to Huckabee's 245. It takes 1,191 delegates to secure the Republican nomination) the Obama/Clinton race is much, much closer and I'm not so certain Hillary won't win Texas as she did California and take over the lead. I think this thread is a bit premature but if Obama wins Texas handily, then I would agree that Obama will be the nominee.

I think you make a good point. And what's interesting about that is that analysts are now suggesting that this only helps the Democrats bid in November as far as the independent or swing vote is concerned. Because McCain has the nomincation locked up, many people who are open to voting for either side aren't really following him. Instead, they are following the democratic race - and many becoming excited by Obama. With his momentum growing, those people might become permanently in the Obama camp and hard to sway back when the national campaigning begins.

Its an interesting observation.

On the other hand, I think there are tons of folks, myself included who are non too pleased by the offerings of either party, and may not vote at all. Most folks im talking to are feeling this way.

I think that's an anomaly. The numbers suggest that participation is very high. Numbers of individual donors on both parties is at record levels and turnout in the primaries has been very very strong. I think an Obama candidacy will motivate segments of the population that don't always vote (young people, some minority segments, etc.). If anything, the right needs to worry about the conservatives rejecting McCain and not voting because they feel its a lost cause anyway. But if that doesn't happen and conservatives show up at the polls in November, I think we'll see very high if not record numbers.

IMO.

 

[saintmdterps]

This election seems like a reverse of 2004, when the Democratic offering slid too far to the right to be acceptable to the leftists (me among them). Now its McCain whose slid to far to the left to be acceptable to the rightists.

Obama will win due to voter turnout among working/middle class, African American, and Latino. Populist/Proletariat backlash against politics and business as usual/good old boy/cronyism of the Bush regime. Will Obama's proposed changes work? Only time will tell.

I may, for the first time, cast my vote for the winner in a presidential election. Indeed, it may be the first time I vote for a candidate from either of the major parties.

 

[TPS]

>>I may, for the first time, cast my vote for the winner in a presidential election. Indeed, it may be the first time I vote for a candidate from either of the major parties.

This remains an unlikely possibility for me as well. I'm 0-6 and happy about my choices. :17:

TPS

 

[JimEverett]

T.

I may, for the first time, cast my vote for the winner in a presidential election. Indeed, it may be the first time I vote for a candidate from either of the major parties.

May be my first as well - and what a way for it to be my first.
But the cynic in me finds it hard to believe that our electorate has changed THAT much.

 

[Saint77]

I get the feeling (and this is purely anecdotal) there are far more Republicans or right leaning people feeling that way than left. As I talk to people I find folks more likely to vote Democrat are very excited about their two choices. It makes sense. In McCain you have a non traditional Republican candidate vs. to traditional Democrats, at least on the key issues that shape the parties (taxes, abortion, military, etc). This is another reason I don't think November bodes well for the Republicans.

Oh, Ill totally agree with that. I think the Rep party's offerings for all varieties of republicans is, obviously, very weak, and displeases many of them. Interestingly, many dems ive spoken to find some appeal to McCain, or as you say, are all fired up for either Obama or Cliston. I have said all the way back to the last election, at some point the "pendulum" is going to swing back the other way, and hard Of course, this to me was the price the republican party was going to, and is now, paying for their recent 8 years of success. I dont think many republican voters saw this then, and aren't seeing it now. This to me creates a good atmosphere for someone like McCain.

Anyway, most of the republicans I talk to just aren't enthused by this years offerings, and a few have expressed the will to not vote. Or at least, go third party. Because they see it as an election that doesn't offer them much. either way, they are going to lose.

Another reason is if you look back at the last 7 elections the most charismatic candidate won. That may sound silly but it's true. Reagan was more charismatic than Carter or Mondale. Bush more that Dukakis. Clinton more than Bush or Dole and Dubya more than Gore or Kerry. Regardless of which of the two McCain runs against they will be more charismatic than him.

Heh, you know, I was asked a few years ago why I thought Kerry might lose by a few people. Most of the time my answer was "because dude looks like lurch" I always got a funny look, but I pointed out that, people vote for funny reasons, Kerry does bring something to the table, but combined with a lack of consistency, and the fact that he just isn't charismatic enough, it isn't happening. Totally agree there

Finally, the majority of the country is dissatisfied with the President and he's Republican. As much as Bushies have played the "he's not running again" line when discussing his poll numbers the reality is it has an effect on the countries mood toward his party. We saw this in 2006 where the Republicans lost largely on the fact that every Democrat made it a race of them vs. Bush instead of them vs. the person they were actually running against.

Most everyone I know of of all political bents, are sick of Bush, and any of his clones, but they also recognize that, he in most ways doesn't reflect what one might call a true republican. I find him disingenuous, and always have. I think the 2006 elections your referring to were also a part of the country's thought that their should be more balance, so it kind played well into the dems hands, as long as they didn't go borking it up somehow.

IMO you have this perfect storm brewing for the Democrats in November. A variety of factors from war weariness to charisma to anger at the current Republican administration are converging for what could be a big win for the Dems in November. Bigger than I think many realize.

Oh, I think more then likely, it will play as out as you say, Either way, its going to be historic for the dem party. black man or woman in office, and win back the whitehouse. win/win scoreboard for them as a party. Aside from that, as I said above, the pendulum is swinging back and hard.. I just think that a lot of folks wont bother voting simply because this to them, and myself, seems far too much fo a dem party themed election. Not a good thing IMO. In fact, I think its dangerous, as much as the silliness thats gone on in office for the pat 8 years. It falls into the category of: "be careful what you wish for....."

Lastly, I think the rural voters in Ohio wont be very inclined to vote for any of these folks come November. Im not saying they wont vote en mass, but I am very curious to see who they will vote. I am sure they wont vote for clinton, and not convinced they will vote for Obama either.

>>On the other hand, I think there are tons of folks, myself included who are non too pleased by the offerings of either party, and may not vote at all. Most folks im talking to are feeling this way.

Isn't it that way every year? People bemoan their choices and have to "hold their nose when they walk into the booth" or "vote against someone instead of voting for someone." This year that approach is an ignorant cop out. You have a so-called maverick Republican rather than a party insider on the one hand and a woman battling a black dude on the other. The people you are talking to that are feeling this way would probably say that every other election too.

TPS

Dude, one day im goign to get you to use the quote feature on this board if it kills me!

All kidding aside, I totally agree, theres always some crap talk, beit sports, or politics about how people wont do this or that. I cant argue that, and I believe a percentage of people I talk to do this. I am the type though to really get peoples opinions, so I tend to believe most of them.

Anyway, we will see what happens. I watched the rebroadcast of the debate today and, it did nothing but help solidify my position that I don't like either dem. I love how they are still tossing out the 12 million illegal number, 5 years later. I would tend to believe that, at 1-3 mil a year, over 4 years, that number would increase, but maybe I just don't know math too well? I wont go into what I feel about the rest of their border/immigration stances, as I feel its all crap. They are seriously pandering ot the Hispanic crowd (as expected), And, I don't have a problem with billerys "xerox" comment, In fact, I expect it. all the candidates "xerox" their election song form year to year. I just dont think it was well played. I dont take either very seriously on reforming healthcare, and im still very concerned about what they plan on doing in foreign affairs.

 

[TPS]

Dude, one day im goign to get you to use the quote feature on this board if it kills me!

You don't say.

TPS

 

[Saint77]

You don't say.

TPS

Thanks pal.




Oh, you know one thing I forgot to mention. Wait until a lot of republicans get a hold of something that hasnt been talked about too much. Obama's stance on 2A issues. I expect should he get the party nomination, he'll get roasted on that.

 

[Saint by the Bay]

Thanks pal.




Oh, you know one thing I forgot to mention. Wait until a lot of republicans get a hold of something that hasnt been talked about too much. Obama's stance on 2A issues. I expect should he get the party nomination, he'll get roasted on that.

Most Dems survive the 2A issues OK. People who truly value gun rights don't vote Dem anyway and it's easy enough to weasel out of some of the more extreme positions on that issue.

I expect his biggest general election issue will be Gay and Lesbian rights where he tends to be somewhere to the left of Richard Simmons. That issue can spark up trouble even among hardcore Dems.

 

[saintmdterps]

TPS and JimEverett,
Yeah, I'm 0-6 as well, and happy with my choices also.

I agree with JE, I'm not sure the elctorate is ready, willing. and able to institute change that may, just may, benefit the majority in this country as opposed to the minority. Obama has even indicated a willingness to take on lobbying practices in this country. I'm sure that'll go over well with business-as -usual Washington.

 

[Saint Mike]

Most Dems survive the 2A issues OK. People who truly value gun rights don't vote Dem anyway and it's easy enough to weasel out of some of the more extreme positions on that issue.

I expect his biggest general election issue will be Gay and Lesbian rights where he tends to be somewhere to the left of Richard Simmons. That issue can spark up trouble even among hardcore Dems.

 

[Saint77]

Most Dems survive the 2A issues OK. People who truly value gun rights don't vote Dem anyway and it's easy enough to weasel out of some of the more extreme positions on that issue.

I expect his biggest general election issue will be Gay and Lesbian rights where he tends to be somewhere to the left of Richard Simmons. That issue can spark up trouble even among hardcore Dems.

Ha, good point in the last paragraph.

Well, as far as him and 2A, dude wants to ban CCW, and from what ive been reading on his job history, hes going to have a very hard time "splaining away his actions. I think once some of it gets out, should the repubs take advantage of it, it will slag off some votes for him. Maybe not many, but who knows. I just think its a story, like gay rights (what is it, god guns and gays? or something like that) that will play out hard in the coming months. Maybe im wrong?

 

[DMaestro]

I expect his biggest general election issue will be Gay and Lesbian rights where he tends to be somewhere to the left of Richard Simmons. That issue can spark up trouble even among hardcore Dems.

You know something I don't? Last I checked, he supported civil unions but opposed marriage. AKA the safe moderate-liberal position.

 

[Saint by the Bay]

I did a quick search and it looks like Obama is actually taking some heat from groups on the left about not being tough enough on guns. Here's one of the links I found:

http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/2/16/22186/4153

I really don't know much on it either way. It's not a key issue for me. I'm not worried much about people having or not having guns. I don't have any and I don't think there's a material change in our lives either way. As such I usually have no idea where a candidate is on gun control because, honestly, I just don't care. It looks like from this however he's a little to the right of the party on it.

That's speculation based on quick reading though, I really don't know for sure.

 

[Saint by the Bay]

You know something I don't? Last I checked, he supported civil unions but opposed marriage. AKA the safe moderate-liberal position.

He had the highest possible rating from a Gay and Lesbian group that scores politicians votes going back to his time in Illinois. He's is rated #1 in the Senate right now on Gay Rights scoring 98 out of 100. He supports repealing Don't Ask Don't Tell and allowing Gays to serve openly. He supports Medical Leave Act provisions for Gay couples when one of them has a baby or uses a surrogate in the case of men. He supports expanding hate crimes to include sexual orientation.

Basically he's never seen a bill for gay rights he doesn't like.