Official Week 7 Betting Thread (1 Viewer)

BoNcHiE

Every team's Elixir
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30-24 CFB YTD
29-18-3 NFL YTD (5-0 on PODs)

Lean Broncos tonight. My advice is be careful betting on just the perceived RLM in this game. Tickets ain't money and Cards have money on them that have forced the drop.

Edit: Also lean Stanford -2.5.
 
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I'm gonna go ahead and get my Sunday leans written down.

Early:

Titans +6.5
Bears +2.5
Panthers +5
Lions -2.5
Vikings -3.5

Late:

49ers +10
Giants +5
 
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Distant early warning: The Saints, who have a bye this week, are opening as 2.5- to three-point dogs on the road against the Ravens. Despite their dome-flower reputation, the Saints are 14-7-1 as road dogs since 2014, which means the public underestimates them. Also, they are very good team, while the Ravens specialize in stomping on opponents with zero offense.

LINK
 
Thought that on DET +2.5 vs dallas. DET lost by 1 lol. But I agree.

1 unit Stanford -2.5. Love is active

There are studies that say the points only come into play like 23% of the time in NFL. In other words, a dog that covers typically wins outright as well (totally not true in college). But I get it. To me, I'd rather have the points than the slightly better odds when the line is around 3. What's the ML? +120? Just give me the 2.5 and the -110.
 
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I liked the Broncos until I saw a few things. Just how awful they are outside of Denver under this coach. 1-9 straight up in their last 10 road games, dead last in the NFL in rushing defense and they give up 5.6 yards per rush, and Arizona has actually played some solid football at home.

Line in this game and Arizona State screams back the home team. Guess we will see how it plays out.
 
Broncos -1 (hook for -120)
Stanford -2.5

I'd rather lose a few plays than stop capping the way I cap and get myself in real trouble long term.
 
Think I'm going to live bet 1/2 a unit on the dog if I can cross a key number or 2. I think it's a close game.
 
If you play the Saints take the ML. The points wont matter.

Everyone on Covers is on the Ravens.

This feels like it could be one of those games where a bunch of betters convince themselves they are on the "sharp" side and have this game figured out (Brees sucks outdoors, letdown for Saints, omgz Ravens defense, yada yada yada) and then the Saints win by two scores.
 
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