Official Week 8 Betting Thread (1 Viewer)

[Surviving Saint]

I bought out. If bears win ill make a little something. If I lose it won't be much. I should have just gone with bears to begin with. I'll look at next week's games in the morning but I'll be hunting until Sunday. If I play ill post. Good luck fellas.

 

[BoNcHiE]

I'm on the Bears +5

No real serious feeling on this game. Just think the Bears make slightly more sense. Who knows if the Bears will actually show up.

$$

3-1 NFL this week. I'll update totals later.

 

[BoNcHiE]

2-1 CFB
3-1 NFL

42-23-2 NFL YTD (65%)
27-13 CFB YTD (67%)

Two great weeks in a row probably means I may limit my plays this week. My win %'s are unsustainable so I've gotta be real careful down the stretch not to give too much back.

 

[duckjr78]

Then we aren't even gonna win that game IMO. What a stupidly low line. Saints will get heavy, heavy public action.

-5 or -6 by the end of the week. Man that sucks to see that.

I'm starting to understand a *little bit about all of this. Can you explain your reasoning behind this so that I can see if I am understanding it correctly?

If you don't want to bother with it, can you point me in the direction of a good resource to help me get to the next level of understanding football lines and betting? You are often a voice of reason and understanding on this board, which is why I ask.

Thank you.

 

[BoNcHiE]

Several things scare me.

1) The 49ers have lost 6 straight ATS. That's very, very rare. They are now coming off a bye week and going for 7 straight. There's a due factor there and it sets up with them at home and off a bye.

2) The betting is going to end up at least 80+% in favor of the Saints. Right now it's 90%. Now those numbers aren't perfect (some bets could be worth more money then others), but is any casual better gonna bet the 49ers at just +3.5? We will be a huge, massive public favorite this week.

3) The Saints are going for their 5th straight win ATS in a row. Again, the due factor sets up against us.

4) On the field, we are coming off a huge win, flying out west, and facing a team that has nothing to lose. That's ended up in losses for us so many times in the past.

5) The low line feels very "too good to be true" as well. That's usually bad news.

I'll be betting SF later in the week. Hopefully the line goes up to -5 or so and the Saints have some cushion.

It's possible we win the game by 3, we win, and Vegas wins. Everyone is happy. But I've seen it go the other way too many times...Or we could blow them out.

 

[duckjr78]

Several things scare me.

1) The 49ers have lost 6 straight ATS. That's very, very rare. They are now coming off a bye week and going for 7 straight. There's a due factor there and it sets up with them at home and off a bye.

2) The betting is going to end up at least 80+% in favor of the Saints. Right now it's 90%. Now those numbers aren't perfect (some bets could be worth more money then others), but is any casual better gonna bet the 49ers at just -3.5? We will be a huge, massive public favorite this week.

3) The Saints are going for their 5th straight win ATS in a row. Again, the due factor sets up against us.

4) On the field, we are coming off a huge win, flying out west, and facing a team that has nothing to lose. That's ended up in losses for us so many times in the past.

5) The low line feels very "too good to be true" as well. That's usually bad news.

I'll be betting SF later in the week. Hopefully the line goes up to -5 or so and the Saints have some cushion.

It's possible we win the game by 3, we win, and Vegas wins. Everyone is happy. But I've seen it go the other way too many times...Or we could blow them out.

Thank you for the summary. That is what I was thinking, but if I had tried to explain it back to you, it would have taken me an hour to type out and it would have been a rambling mess.

I appreciate it!