Stalwart385
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I wanted to break down some cap moves I see potential in. I'm curious to get a guess on what we will be working with. After looking at it we stand to gain a good bit of cap room. A couple of things I'm considering first.
1. 2021 is going to be a harder offseason than 2020. Any move needs to keep 2021 contracts from ballooning. That means I want to avoid messing with Thomas or Jordan type contracts. Pushing their money back means 2021 cap hits will skyrocket.
2. If a player is signed or extended in their last year their current year is usually a good bit below their average contract value. The second year (2021) is usually around their average value and it ballons after that. That's just a common contract that we sign here.
3. I'm considering high leverage contracts. What I mean by that is guys in the last year of their contract (possible extensions) or guys that could be cut and replaced with the money they saved (cap hit minus dead money). I find a good way to look at that is sorting them by the cap space they save. Not that we would cut them but they don't have much guaranteed due relative to their cap hit.
Player - 2020 Savings (2020 Cap Hit) - Prediction. Savings.
Janoris Jenkins - 11.25 mil (11.25) - This contract has no dead money and is too high. We've had a discussion on the board and most agree something needs to happen. I hope to hang on to him with an extension but he could be cut and re-sign elsewhere by a higher bidding team. Save 5 - 11.25 mil this year.
Terron Armstead - 9.8 mil (16.0) - Terron isn't going anywhere and will probably get an extension. I don't think this is the year to do it though. Pushing back his cap could result in nearly 20 mil due next year. I think you pay him and extend him next year (his last contract year). He'll be a good way to make room in 2021. Don't touch.
Larry Warford - 8.5 mil (12.875) - I think he is in a good spot to give an extension. It depends on how long you extend him but you could reduce his 12.875 mil hit all the way down to around 6 mil and still not pay too much in 2021. Save 6 - 8 mill this year.
Kiko Alonso - 7.85 mil (8.7) - I don't know if he will play in 2020. He may be a straight cut (or retire). If healthy I'd like to keep him. They might extend him. Either way he is overpaid for a part-time backer. Save 4 - 7.85 mil this year.
Sheldon Rankins - 7.69 mil (7.69) - I think his contract becomes guaranteed before long. Pretty confident they ride it out. It may be the smartest move to extend him though. For now I'll just say leave it alone. I see potential here though. Don't Touch.
Demario Davis - 5.3 mil (9.9) - I could see them extend him. He's up there in age but playing his best football. Hard to predict but I'll say they'll let it be unless they really need money. Don't Touch.
Jared Cook - 5.0 mil (9.0) - Very similar to Davis. Could see an extension reduce the number but he's earning his money and up there in age. Don't Touch.
Nick Easton - 4.0 mil (5.5) - I think they ride this out. Seemed like a cut early in the year. Now it seems like almost a no-brainer to not mess with. Don't Touch
Patrick Robinson - 3.65 mil (6.15) - It took him a while but he finally got some playing time and did well. I see a range of possibilities from letting his contract ride to just cutting him. Might not be too hard to find a replacement for 3.65 mil if there is doubt from the coaches. Save 0 - 3.65 mil this year.
Malcolm Brown - 3.0 mil (6.0) - I think he's well worth what we're paying him or could save. Don't Touch.
Mario Edwards Jr. - 2.765 mil (3.24) - I think his versatility was invaluable this year. I think he's worth what you would save in cutting him. He is near the bottom of the roster though and could see a scenario where he's not here. For now I'll say they leave it alone. Don't Touch
Everyone else isn't going to save you much money. 1.75 mil savings at most and that hardly moves the needle. Based on my predictions we should be able to open up 15 mil to 30.75 mil with straight forward moves that don't kill our roster. The worst would be losing Jenkins to another team, which could be an unavoidable circumstance. I'd guess we retain him with a reduced cap somehow though. If not Apple may become a priority.
You also have to consider any cuts being June 1st cuts which opens up more money by spreading out dead money. We currently have around 11 mil of free space. It's not unrealistic for us to have 40-45 mil of free cap space to work with this offseason. Don't get me wrong we have some serious decision to make with that money, but it seems doable.
1. 2021 is going to be a harder offseason than 2020. Any move needs to keep 2021 contracts from ballooning. That means I want to avoid messing with Thomas or Jordan type contracts. Pushing their money back means 2021 cap hits will skyrocket.
2. If a player is signed or extended in their last year their current year is usually a good bit below their average contract value. The second year (2021) is usually around their average value and it ballons after that. That's just a common contract that we sign here.
3. I'm considering high leverage contracts. What I mean by that is guys in the last year of their contract (possible extensions) or guys that could be cut and replaced with the money they saved (cap hit minus dead money). I find a good way to look at that is sorting them by the cap space they save. Not that we would cut them but they don't have much guaranteed due relative to their cap hit.
Player - 2020 Savings (2020 Cap Hit) - Prediction. Savings.
Janoris Jenkins - 11.25 mil (11.25) - This contract has no dead money and is too high. We've had a discussion on the board and most agree something needs to happen. I hope to hang on to him with an extension but he could be cut and re-sign elsewhere by a higher bidding team. Save 5 - 11.25 mil this year.
Terron Armstead - 9.8 mil (16.0) - Terron isn't going anywhere and will probably get an extension. I don't think this is the year to do it though. Pushing back his cap could result in nearly 20 mil due next year. I think you pay him and extend him next year (his last contract year). He'll be a good way to make room in 2021. Don't touch.
Larry Warford - 8.5 mil (12.875) - I think he is in a good spot to give an extension. It depends on how long you extend him but you could reduce his 12.875 mil hit all the way down to around 6 mil and still not pay too much in 2021. Save 6 - 8 mill this year.
Kiko Alonso - 7.85 mil (8.7) - I don't know if he will play in 2020. He may be a straight cut (or retire). If healthy I'd like to keep him. They might extend him. Either way he is overpaid for a part-time backer. Save 4 - 7.85 mil this year.
Sheldon Rankins - 7.69 mil (7.69) - I think his contract becomes guaranteed before long. Pretty confident they ride it out. It may be the smartest move to extend him though. For now I'll just say leave it alone. I see potential here though. Don't Touch.
Demario Davis - 5.3 mil (9.9) - I could see them extend him. He's up there in age but playing his best football. Hard to predict but I'll say they'll let it be unless they really need money. Don't Touch.
Jared Cook - 5.0 mil (9.0) - Very similar to Davis. Could see an extension reduce the number but he's earning his money and up there in age. Don't Touch.
Nick Easton - 4.0 mil (5.5) - I think they ride this out. Seemed like a cut early in the year. Now it seems like almost a no-brainer to not mess with. Don't Touch
Patrick Robinson - 3.65 mil (6.15) - It took him a while but he finally got some playing time and did well. I see a range of possibilities from letting his contract ride to just cutting him. Might not be too hard to find a replacement for 3.65 mil if there is doubt from the coaches. Save 0 - 3.65 mil this year.
Malcolm Brown - 3.0 mil (6.0) - I think he's well worth what we're paying him or could save. Don't Touch.
Mario Edwards Jr. - 2.765 mil (3.24) - I think his versatility was invaluable this year. I think he's worth what you would save in cutting him. He is near the bottom of the roster though and could see a scenario where he's not here. For now I'll say they leave it alone. Don't Touch
Everyone else isn't going to save you much money. 1.75 mil savings at most and that hardly moves the needle. Based on my predictions we should be able to open up 15 mil to 30.75 mil with straight forward moves that don't kill our roster. The worst would be losing Jenkins to another team, which could be an unavoidable circumstance. I'd guess we retain him with a reduced cap somehow though. If not Apple may become a priority.
You also have to consider any cuts being June 1st cuts which opens up more money by spreading out dead money. We currently have around 11 mil of free space. It's not unrealistic for us to have 40-45 mil of free cap space to work with this offseason. Don't get me wrong we have some serious decision to make with that money, but it seems doable.
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