Only 8 games with a team having a 98% win probability ended up losing in the past 15 seasons (1 Viewer)

[Madmarsha]

I also want to paraphrase my favorite quote from Honeymoon in Vegas.
NC: "98% is LIKE unbeatable."
SJP: "LIKE unbeatable is not unbeatable".
THE FALCONS: "Okay, I KNOW that now".

 

[Saint Kamara]

Ok NFL Rewind show I was watching didn't explain this correctly.

Atlanta is the first team in the past 20 years to do this 3 times in 1 season.

And there are 4 other times this season a team other than the Falcons have done this.

 

[SuperSaint]

Every time I think my life sucks, a ray of sunshine comes along to keep me going...

 

[SaintJ]

New meaning to the term "Fin."

 

[LoE]

The odds of ATL blowing those last three, are you ready for this...

1 in 6000

 

[SaintsIn2009]

Well, if they count the playoffs, the Minnesota Mess up would put us in that number.

I was thinking the same thing, I mean it was literally the last play of the game, i.e. Falcons/Lions Sunday

 

[guidomerkinsrules]

I’m all for bagging on the Failchokes, but the % math seems off, or however they determine what is 98% win probability is inflated

 

[Mad Max2]

I’m all for bagging on the Failchokes, but the % math seems off, or however they determine what is 98% win probability is inflated

I was thinking the same thing. Even if Gurley stayed out of the end zone, they still have to kick a field goal. There is no way any field goal is a 98% probability, not even the old extra point from the 3. Hey, but lets not let a bunch of meaningless facts get in the way of the dumpster fire that is Atlanta.

 

[BiloxiSaint1]

I was thinking the same thing. Even if Gurley stayed out of the end zone, they still have to kick a field goal. There is no way any field goal is a 98% probability, not even the old extra point from the 3. Hey, but lets not let a bunch of meaningless facts get in the way of the dumpster fire that is Atlanta.

The Falcons had first-and-goal at the Detroit 10-yard line with 1:12 left and the Lions out of time-outs. The Falcons were down, 16-14, and only needed to take a knee twice and kick a short field goal as time expired for a 17-14 win.

If Gurley goes down at the 1 or before and the Falcons make the very short FG, they win. As it was, the Lions needed every second left on the clock to score.

So, as you pointed out, they still need the FG and what is the percentage chance of making that chip shot?

I know this, the computer needs a Falcon adjustment to it's programming.

 

[St.Dan]

And 3 of those 8 belong to the Atlanta Falcons, in just the past 6 weeks.

Doing the math, that's a total of 3,584 games before this season in which that's happened only 5 times.

It's awesome the Failclowns have helped erase some our own bad memories of blown leads that led to missed playoff berths in the 1970s and '80s!

 

[Mad Max2]

The Falcons had first-and-goal at the Detroit 10-yard line with 1:12 left and the Lions out of time-outs. The Falcons were down, 16-14, and only needed to take a knee twice and kick a short field goal as time expired for a 17-14 win.

If Gurley goes down at the 1 or before and the Falcons make the very short FG, they win. As it was, the Lions needed every second left on the clock to score.

So, as you pointed out, they still need the FG and what is the percentage chance of making that chip shot?

I know this, the computer needs a Falcon adjustment to it's programming.

Here you go. Let's just call it 99%. That was what it was before 2014. I would say now that 98% is pretty close. I mean, who would have every thought they would run the ball and not take a knee? Probability of successfully taking a knee, running out the clock, and kicking a field goal from that distance is probably 98%. The stat of running the football doesn't make it into the calculation because it would be moronic and significantly decrease those chances.

NFL Season By Season Kicking & Punting | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Check out the NFL Season By Season Kicking & Punting Stats including league totals and averages and more on Pro-football-reference.com

www.pro-football-reference.com

 

[BiloxiSaint1]

Here you go. Let's just call it 99%. That was what it was before 2014. I would say now that 98% is pretty close. I mean, who would have every thought they would run the ball and not take a knee? Probability of successfully taking a knee, running out the clock, and kicking a field goal from that distance is probably 98%. The stat of running the football doesn't make it into the calculation because it would be moronic and significantly decrease those chances.

NFL Season By Season Kicking & Punting | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Check out the NFL Season By Season Kicking & Punting Stats including league totals and averages and more on Pro-football-reference.com

www.pro-football-reference.com

Let's add in this:

The Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo is 86.7% this year on XP kicks and 93.8% on FGs. So the win % if Atlanta took a knee and played it right should have been somewhere between 86.7% and 93.8% without even making the Falcon Choke adjustment.

 

[GW93]

I’d assume maybe the colts with a prime manning or pats/brady would have 1 or 2 of those games. Maybe saints/Dolphins 2009 game?

2017 Saints/Washington. Didn't the 'Skins have like a 99% chance when they up were up by 16 halfway through the 4th?

 

[jayd265]

2017 Saints/Washington. Didn't the 'Skins have like a 99% chance when they up were up by 16 halfway through the 4th?

forgot about that one. has to be one of them.

 

[7throundpick]

When we beat Washington in 2017, weren’t they 99.9% to win before we came back?