Paying quarterbacks big can make winning in the NFL hard -Adam Stites (1 Viewer)

Swimmer

Medsamust Saint Fan
Joined
Apr 14, 2007
Messages
16,806
Reaction score
24,233
Age
67
Location
Slaughterhouse Five
Offline
This Brees Contract situation is likely the most polarizing topic on SR in years. This is a 2015 article, but it brings up some powerful stats.

Finding a good quarterback isn't easy in the NFL and keeping a good quarterback is expensive. Many teams are faced with no choice but to open up the pocketbooks in a big way to keep an above-average quarterback from escaping in free agency, but paying so much can make building a winning team difficult.

In the last 20 seasons, only four teams won the Super Bowl with a quarterback eating up more than 10 percent of the team's salary cap. Steve Young owns the record for biggest percentage of a team's cap space for a Super Bowl winner when he received 13.1 of the pay for the San Francisco 49ers in 1994.

Yet, when the 2015 season begins there are 13 teams scheduled to pay their starter more than 10 percent of the $143.28 million salary cap set in March. That number could go up soon, too, if Russell Wilson of the Seattle Seahawks receives the big payday that he's hoping for.
So having an expensive elite NFL QB does not translate into lots of SBs. In the last 20 years, only 20% of those teams won SBs.

I personally am not ready for the Brees show to end, but it sure explains the talent problems we are having. And when we combine the major mistakes in FA and draft, the picture is clear.

Nobody is eating up space like Drew Brees, though. Nearly a fifth of the salary cap for the Saints will be dedicated to the team's nine-time Pro Bowl quarterback, which is a bad formula, historically. However, there isn't much alternative for New Orleans, which has to cling to Brees if the team hopes to have any chance at a good year in 2015.

The rising salary cap has afforded teams more luxury to dedicate bigger contracts to quarterbacks without crippling the rest of the team. That means teams like the Carolina Panthers and Miami Dolphins won't be hampered too badly by huge deals given to Cam Newton and Ryan Tannehill, respectively, which will both balloon to register cap hits of more than $20 million in 2017.

Still, history has shown that teams not anchored by a big contract at quarterback are better positioned to win the Super Bowl. Yet it's the Green Bay Packers, with Aaron Rodgers accounting for 12.74 percent of the team's salary cap, who enter the 2015 season with the best odds to take home the Lombardi Trophy.
There's a real nice table in the link, but it looks like the NFL has reached relative parity and it ain't easy to be the Pats. And it ain't easy to win multiple SBS with expensive QBs.

Paying quarterbacks big can make winning in the NFL hard - SBNation.com
 
OP

Swimmer

Medsamust Saint Fan
Joined
Apr 14, 2007
Messages
16,806
Reaction score
24,233
Age
67
Location
Slaughterhouse Five
Offline
People are red thumbing you for posting an article. Lol.

But I totally agree that playing money ball is the smarter move.
There are a lot of smart people who believe in their guts that Brees is the only ticket back to a SB. I personally don't think there's any easy way to win another SB quickly after another unless you happen to be the Pats.

I hope like the rest of us that this will be a winning season. But if it's not, we clearly now know why not. It seems like the teams with the great QBs hit the SB jackpot when their QBs were on the way up. imho, I don't think Grayson is the answer, at least not this year or probably next - if ever. And the article does not view the stats to see what percentage of SBs was won with average or below average QBs.

I would appreciate it if someone could import the table. Then it would be easier for everyone to view and get their own insights. I don't know how.
 

obwhiteo

Proudly wearing my dress!
VIP Contributor
Joined
Apr 26, 2006
Messages
5,904
Reaction score
2,737
Age
39
Location
Gulfport
Offline
I'm all for keeping drew until he doesn't want to play anymore, but realistically this article is right. You have to find a way to afford talent in other places. As good as drew is, we've been 7-9 back to back because we can't field acompetitive team with that much of our cap going to one player, it's a bad business model. I hope I'm wrong and we make the playoffs and make a run, but honestly this team has looked more like another 7-9 team. Do we just continue to be 7-9 or maybe 8-8 and be happy that we have Drew?
 

mt15

Subscribing Member
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Subscribing Member
Platinum VIP Contributor
Joined
Mar 14, 2006
Messages
13,342
Reaction score
18,184
Offline
This is somewhat :covri:

He's using cap hit numbers, not salaries nor total compensation, which are pretty pointless since teams manipulate them all the time.

Also, from what I can tell the guy who wrote this is actually just some blogger. The article itself is poorly written and doesn't support its assertions. It doesn't do any in depth analysis and, in fact, says that Brees' deal is crippling, but Rodgers is "worth it" and that the Pack are most likely to bring home a Lombardi is 2015. He can't even follow his own premise clearly. :idunno:

Honestly, there is a better discussion about Brees' deal and possible ramifications going on in the other thread, with, you know, the same topic.
 

Saint_Ward

Don't be a Jerk.
Staff member
Administrator
Gold VIP Contributor
Joined
Mar 1, 2007
Messages
46,704
Reaction score
40,362
Location
Fort Lauderdale, FL
Offline
You're right. Drafting a top 10 NFL QB is easy.

Just ask the Raiders how long it took, or Cleveland, or Philly lately, or Chicago, or the Texans, or the Cardinals, or the Rams, or the Bucs, or the Titans, or the Dolphins, or the Jets, or the Bills how easy it is to draft a QB of the future.

Oh.
 

Alan

Hall-of-Famer
Joined
May 2, 2011
Messages
3,008
Reaction score
2,374
Offline
Drafting a perennial contender is one thing and winning the SB is quiet another.

Team sport predicates outcome more so than personal achievement.
 

crawfish2010

Hall-of-Famer
Joined
Jan 15, 2012
Messages
4,824
Reaction score
3,563
Offline
I'm all for keeping drew until he doesn't want to play anymore, but realistically this article is right. You have to find a way to afford talent in other places. As good as drew is, we've been 7-9 back to back because we can't field acompetitive team with that much of our cap going to one player, it's a bad business model. I hope I'm wrong and we make the playoffs and make a run, but honestly this team has looked more like another 7-9 team. Do we just continue to be 7-9 or maybe 8-8 and be happy that we have Drew?
Drew Brees contract doesn't have anything to do with the Saints not being able to field a competitive team. They have drafted poorly and have to fill those holes with free agents. You have to overpay for free agents and if they don't perform you're screwed. Imagine if Jarius Byrd was a top 5 safety, Spiller was 2011 Sproles, or Brandon Browner was as good as Jabari Greer.

I know I'm in the minority here, but I don't think the Saints should offer Brees a new contract until after the season and if the Saints don't make the playoffs what's the point of having an 38 year old QB making $22-25 million.
 

WilliamBrees

ALL-MADDEN TEAM
Joined
May 1, 2014
Messages
1,786
Reaction score
335
Offline
This is somewhat :covri:

He's using cap hit numbers, not salaries nor total compensation, which are pretty pointless since teams manipulate them all the time.

Also, from what I can tell the guy who wrote this is actually just some blogger. The article itself is poorly written and doesn't support its assertions. It doesn't do any in depth analysis and, in fact, says that Brees' deal is crippling, but Rodgers is "worth it" and that the Pack are most likely to bring home a Lombardi is 2015. He can't even follow his own premise clearly. :idunno:

Honestly, there is a better discussion about Brees' deal and possible ramifications going on in the other thread, with, you know, the same topic.
Is it Rodgers fault Nelson got hurt which gave them single digit losses against Carolina, Detroit, Chicago, and Minnesota. They win those they are 14-2 and have HFA.
 

WilliamBrees

ALL-MADDEN TEAM
Joined
May 1, 2014
Messages
1,786
Reaction score
335
Offline
You're right. Drafting a top 10 NFL QB is easy.

Just ask the Raiders how long it took, or Cleveland, or Philly lately, or Chicago, or the Texans, or the Cardinals, or the Rams, or the Bucs, or the Titans, or the Dolphins, or the Jets, or the Bills how easy it is to draft a QB of the future.

Oh.
Cleveland is the most cursed team in the league. But they have not even tried to find QBs early. They waited and waited and passed and then traded up to draft Quinn and Manziel. They let Atlanta trade up for Jones instead of staying put and having the chance to draft Dalton. Oh yeah, they drafted a 27 year old QB when logic should have told you that was a dumb choice. They also waited to draft him as well. They made dumb choices. However, you factor in the scheme. The browns never had offensive scheme plans for these QBs. Oakland? Same thing. They drafted Russell and gave him a few years chance. Then they invested in Campbell and Palmer. And then Pryor who they didn't even draft in a real draft. However QBs have been emerging in he draft since 2009.......

Stafford, 2009
Newton, 2011
Dalton, 2011
Luck, 2012
Wilson, 2012
Cousins, 2012
Bortles, 2014
Carr, 2014
Mariotta, 2015
Winston, 2015

And this year there's Wentz, Goff, Lynch, Prescott. QBs are being developed more and more in college now. It should also be noted if a qb goes to a good foundation he has the better chance to succeed. All of those QBs outside of Mariotta fit this. And Winston, Wilson, Cam are anomalys for playmaking reasons. These other QBs have not only been drafted but they have been given playmakers to throw to as well.

Luck was a born leader but he went to a good org and had Reggie Wayne.

Stafford had Megatron waiting.

Cousins was a backup and was given a team with not much talent. He didn't fit the redskins' scheme either because of the Morris effect. The next year I think he tried to get Garcon involved too much and Reed was hurt. He didn't have the playmakers and last season with DJac and Reed he balled.

Dalton had Green drafted with him.

Bortles had two receivers drafted with him one who is a stud.

Carr did not play well his first year but the next year the raider gave him two weapons and he improved. These QBs that suceeded had strong support systems. Those that didn't did not.
 

TheIronSheik

ALL-MADDEN TEAM
Joined
Sep 8, 2008
Messages
2,290
Reaction score
1,378
Offline
Drew Brees is making 19.375 million this year, Tom Brady is making 29 million this year. Brees cap hit is 30 million this year and Brady is cap hit is 14 million.

After this year Brees has no overcharge on his future contract. Brady is due as of right now 31 million dollars the next 3 years and a cap hit of 58 million over those year. That is 27 millin extra overcharge that count against the cap the next 3 seasons no matter what.
 

Krodwhodat

Subscribing Member
VIP Subscribing Member
Gold VIP Contributor
Joined
May 3, 2012
Messages
8,328
Reaction score
14,151
Offline
This Brees Contract situation is likely the most polarizing topic on SR in years. This is a 2015 article, but it brings up some powerful stats.







So having an expensive elite NFL QB does not translate into lots of SBs. In the last 20 years, only 20% of those teams won SBs.



I personally am not ready for the Brees show to end, but it sure explains the talent problems we are having. And when we combine the major mistakes in FA and draft, the picture is clear.







There's a real nice table in the link, but it looks like the NFL has reached relative parity and it ain't easy to be the Pats. And it ain't easy to win multiple SBS with expensive QBs.



Paying quarterbacks big can make winning in the NFL hard - SBNation.com


There are only 4 maybe 5 "elite qbs in the league. The rest are over paid average QBs. So it's not really hard with an elite QB, it's silly to pay an average QB to much money.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

saintfan-n-alex

Super Forum Fanatic
Joined
Feb 16, 2005
Messages
9,807
Reaction score
3,320
Offline
Different game today as well, used to be RBs were more of a house hold name , now other than one or two older backs they are a committee of no names

Same with WRs now there are several on each team who share the load (TEs as well ) vs the duos like Swann / Stallworth , Dupet/Clayton etc


Could be I don't know the names as I did when I was a kid despite there is more media coverage today

Also the QB is still the most important position they salaries they earn are really big numbers even though they were probably the highest paid players in the past
 
OP

Swimmer

Medsamust Saint Fan
Joined
Apr 14, 2007
Messages
16,806
Reaction score
24,233
Age
67
Location
Slaughterhouse Five
Offline
This is somewhat :covri:

He's using cap hit numbers, not salaries nor total compensation, which are pretty pointless since teams manipulate them all the time.

Also, from what I can tell the guy who wrote this is actually just some blogger. The article itself is poorly written and doesn't support its assertions. It doesn't do any in depth analysis and, in fact, says that Brees' deal is crippling, but Rodgers is "worth it" and that the Pack are most likely to bring home a Lombardi is 2015. He can't even follow his own premise clearly. :idunno:

Honestly, there is a better discussion about Brees' deal and possible ramifications going on in the other thread, with, you know, the same topic.
Honestly, this article was posted before the other. I agree, the threads should be merged. This can be merged into the other Mods.

We all have so many so feelings attached to our Saints. Many of us believe we know more than the FO and coaches.

Stats are often a great indicator or sign of trends and causes. That's what this thread is about. Only 20% of teams over the last 20 years have won the SB with QBs taking more than 10% of salary cap. An 80% accurate stat is usually a powerful stat.

The writer may not be that skilled, but his stats are excellent.

We have so many strong opinions about our Saints for which I am so guilty. In 2014, I said we should take 3 O-linemen with our 1st 5 picks. I think I was right now. But really??? There is so much to a winning team. Culture is so important. And getting his locker room right was #1 for SP. He could have great talent, but without a solid team character and identity, we are talking about the Browns.

I have to remind myself that this Board is about news and entertainment. We have no idea what's going on behind the scenes. Benson may have told Loomis and SP that he has beginning stages of dementia and wants us to go all in for any chance for him to remember another SB. SP may be strongly against this, but these are his orders. These are stories I am making up. They may have an element of truth or they may be absurd.

I think for me it is key to remember that this is entertainment, I don't know professional football, teams are paying millions for coaches and FO personnel, 32 teams are doing everything they can to win the SB every year, injuries play a huge part in success so does luck and bounce of the ball.

These are our opinions, usually based on emotions and only that!

Namaste!
 
OP

Swimmer

Medsamust Saint Fan
Joined
Apr 14, 2007
Messages
16,806
Reaction score
24,233
Age
67
Location
Slaughterhouse Five
Offline
There are only 4 maybe 5 "elite qbs in the league. The rest are over paid average QBs. So it's not really hard with an elite QB, it's silly to pay an average QB to much money.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
imho - Great Point. If I got what you are saying, the elite QBs salaries are blurred by the overpaying of average QBs. If that's the case, and I agree with you, then the stats behind this article are even more legit and powerful. If right, we would have a lot of average teams with highly overpaid QBs who can't lead them to a SB taking cap space from a team's ability to fill talent gaps elsewhere. Really good insights - thx

To me the article made a clear and high correlation between highly paid QBs and lack of cap to fill talent voids. We may be the exception if we sign Brees, but Vegas would give us 5-1 odds of that being a bad bet and Vegas is built on emotional betting. imho, i don't think we should resign Brees. Brees has played injured more games than not over the last 2 years. Last year it was 12 out of 16 games. I think Brees will be running for his life and taking big hits against top defenses this year because of our O-line. But as a Saint fan, emotionally I want to see Brees retire in Black and Gold. Does that make since? Only if I am human and that is a fact.
 

Create an account or login to comment

You must be a member in order to leave a comment

Create account

Create an account on our community. It's easy!

Log in

Already have an account? Log in here.

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Users: 0, Guests: 1)



Headlines

Top Bottom