Performance Based Value: New Orleans Saints (1 Viewer)

Kurgan

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Undervalued
1. Brian De La Puente, Center
In 2011 the Saints signed Olin Kreutz to be their center. That experiment failed quickly, and this former undrafted rookie took over. De La Puente played well enough in 2011 to keep the starting job in 2012 where he broke out as one of the better centers in the league. His 16 total pressures allowed was above average for centers, and his +13.6 run block rating was seventh-best. When you can get one of the best centers in the league for the veteran minimum, you’ve got yourself a deal.
2012 Cap Hit: $540k
2012 Performance Based Value: $4.8m
Value Differential: +$4.2m
2. Jimmy Graham, Tight End
Even though Graham didn’t have the same season in 2012 as he did in 2011, it was still a decent one. His 15 dropped passes was way too high, but he still maintained a 64.9% catch rate on the year with 11.6 yards per catch. He was a productive tight end playing on a third-round rookie contract.
2012 Cap Hit: $710k
2012 Performance Based Value: $4.9m
Value Differential: +$4.2m
3. Pierre Thomas, Halfback
The Saints have a very crowded backfield so it might be easy to forget about Pierre Thomas, who played in only 37.2% of snaps. He played far too well in those snaps for us to ignore him. He had 19 players miss tackles on him over his 105 carries, and had a high 86.7% catch rate. He wasn’t penalized on the year and was a good blocker, which means he basically does everything right.
2012 Cap Hit: $2.3m
2012 Performance Based Value: $6.0m
Value Differential: +$3.7m


[...]




Overvalued
1. Sedrick Ellis, Defensive Tackle
A clear case where the NFL’s old rookie scale didn’t work so well, Ellis is in the last year of his five-year rookie contract and didn’t play up to it. He rushed the passer 412 times and couldn’t come up with a sack. He had just four stops over the last eight weeks as well. While there are certainly plenty of worse defensive tackles in the league, Ellis just wasn’t worth anywhere near $7 million.
2012 Cap Hit: $7.6m2012 Performance Based Value: $1.0mValue Differential: -$6.5m
2. Roman Harper, Safety
There are three key numbers when judging safeties that Harper doesn’t fare well in. His catch rate allowed is 70.8%, his yards per catch allowed is 14.4 and he had 12 missed tackles on the year. Put all of that together and you have a safety that is far below average, yet still has two years on his contract where he will be paid like a very good safety.
2012 Cap Hit: $6.4m2012 Performance Based Value: $920kValue Differential: -$5.4m
3. Jermon Bushrod, Offensive Tackle
He allowed only four sacks in 2012, which is decent for a tackle, but his 58 total pressures allowed was the second-most among his peers. He at least is a good run blocker and was penalized only six times on his 1130 snaps, which made him worth a bit more than the veteran minimum, but he was worth nowhere near $6.9 million.
2012 Cap Hit: $6.9m2012 Performance Based Value: $2.0mValue Differential: -$4.9m


[...]




Summary – Team Value Differential: -7.9m
The Saints are an interesting case with a great offense and poor defense, yet there are players making a lot of money on both sides of the ball. This has led to a lot of their offensive players being undervalued and a lot of their defensive players being overvalued. Those overvalued big name players on defense put the team in the red.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/03/03/performance-based-value-new-orleans-saints/

Not surprisingly players like smith, harper, vilma, jenkins, shanle were not worth even a million dollars per year. Defensively johnson, gallette and hicks were good value tho, at least there's a sort of a silver lining.

Thoughts?
 

InTheFade82

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I'm starting to feel like the team should let Bushrod walk and cut/trade Roman Harper. We would save a good amount of money that would allow us to make some moves towards rebyilding the defense. I know Roman will cost us any way but I'm tired of having a situational safety. Invest in someone younger that can do a bit of everything which is what the game demanda of Safeties nowadays.

As for Bushrod, yes he knows the system but many of us know he receives a lot of help from Drew and chip blocks. I'd rather see the team pay a lower amount to someone who might need the same assistance but also might develop into more than what we have right now.
 

CitySaint

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What's the alternative to Bushrod? Turn Around Charlie Brown?
 

Danneaux

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I'd ignore most of 2012 when evaluating our players, especially on defense. Using 2012 results, it would be easy to justify cutting anyone.
 

SweetT

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I'd ignore most of 2012 when evaluating our players, especially on defense. Using 2012 results, it would be easy to justify cutting anyone.

Why? If I underperformed for a year (season), I wouldn't expect my boss to ignore my performance. These guys are getting paid to do a job well and if they don't, then that must be factored in. These guys collectively were the worst defense in history. That speaks volumes. Just my opinion.
 

State Of Affairs

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Why? If I underperformed for a year (season), I wouldn't expect my boss to ignore my performance. These guys are getting paid to do a job well and if they don't, then that must be factored in. These guys collectively were the worst defense in history. That speaks volumes. Just my opinion.

While you make a good argument, and one that I would generally make myself, I think you have to take the circumstances into consideration....

Maybe somewhere in the middle... Evaluate them on their body of work and devalue 2012 performance with circumstances in mind.... Some guys were bad in 10 and 11 as well...
 

4thqtrsaint

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Well, you can't cut everybody. The best they can do is cut the guys who don't fit the 3-4 and are overpaid already. Since some of these guys performed better under a similar system with Greg Williams, I think the staff does have to grade some players on a curve. After that, it comes down to salaries. Whether they play well or not in any system, do they earn their pay? It could take 2 offseasons to get the right personnel on defense. They just have to start with the biggest problems and work their way down.


If ProFootballFocus said it, you can take it to the bank. They have an amazing system for such measurements of player production. It would be wise for our team to pay attention.
 

Zack Lee

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I always enjoy reading the PFF articles but for the life of me, I don't know how they figure some things. Like how do you put an actual number on a Center that has two All-Pros on each side of him. Those guys have to play as a unit and they play good as a unit which is all I care about.

And how do you grade performance based cap at 6 mil on a guy that only carried the ball an average of 6.5 carries a game. Doesn't the amount of use you get from a guy have to figure into value? Don't get me wrong - I want Pierre to get many more touches. IMO we run the most well rounded offense when he is in there because he can do a little of everything.
 

St4ever

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I'd ignore most of 2012 when evaluating our players, especially on defense. Using 2012 results, it would be easy to justify cutting anyone.

What 2012 told me was that we have a lot of situational players and no *STARS* . While we do have some promising players the majority will have to be game planned for in order to cover up their deficiencies. We need to get out of the habit of using round pegs in square holes because they do not fit the conventional schemes. I know we have what we have and might as well keep working with less then needed because of their contracts or such. That thinking has to end, we need to start drafting players that play the spot we need help in and not hoping they can make a great player in other positions. How many betweeners do we need? No more then one or two if they are star players or difference makers.

We have a lot of work ahead if we want to get better and it will have to start by releasing some players and upgrading at certain positions.

We have a chance to move in the right direction during the FA period and draft. We need to spend the right dollars in the best place to produce results. Signing a player like Bushrod to a high value contract at this point would not be smart. We can get a guy in the draft that would cost at least 50% less per year then we will have to pay Bushrod that money is better being used for an impact player for our defense.

It is a shame that for the last three years we have been changing DT's trying to get a push up the middle when all along our main problem was the position we refused to replace (Ellis). If they did not produce for us in 2012 they need to walk. Not be moved to another position in hops of them getting better.
 

JackDiesel

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I'd ignore most of 2012 when evaluating our players, especially on defense. Using 2012 results, it would be easy to justify cutting anyone.

The only people that can use 2012 as an excuse is Harper and our CB's. Our linebackers weren't doing anything extraordinarily different and I spent all last offseason reading how Smith and Ellis were going to do great under Spags scheme despite vast mountains of evidence to the contrary.

Not everyone deserves a pass, there has to be some accountability. Even the Rams in all their horrid lack of talent were able to field a better defense than ours. Can't blame it all on Spags.
 

Marlboro Man

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Bushrod is not a very good LT. It's just that across the league, most O-Linemen suck and Bushrod got his pro bowl appearances because of Drew, not because he's any good. If you watch most plays, he only gives Drew 2 seconds of protection.. Really it's laughable the he's gotten pro bowl votes at all.
 

WxM

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Send all the "overvalued ten" packing except Strief and Greer. Strief missed a lot of time with injury, explaining his inclusion on the list. Greer isn't THAT overpaid and was good in prior years in a man scheme. Harper, Jenkins, et al have been burnt toast for a while now. Smith and Vilma are done. Shanle, thanks, but no thanks. Henderson drives me nuts, and isn't his old dynamic self. Ellis is the primary reason we're switching to a 3-4. Letting those UFA walk could go a way towards helping the Saints build up a compensatory pick or two for a change, especially if they're judicious in who they sign. Given the dearth of picks the team has had for a variety of reasons, this should be a no-brainer.
 
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Kurgan

Kurgan

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I agree that spagnuolo didn't use the players in the best way but can you really put ALL on him? Worst defense ever, yeah not fault of the players, nah, only spagnuolo's. C'mon please. A good player has some flaws and some preferences, does better in a scheme and worse in another, but doesn't turn to **** because of a scheme change and all-pro in another (and we haven't had all-pros for sure).
 

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