PFF Predicts Marcus Williams will Sign With Jacksonville (5 Viewers)

DerrickB

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Here's the quote from Pro Football Focus


"Since entering the league in 2017, Williams has ranked near the top of the league in every significant category for safeties. He has a coverage grade that ranks in the 90th percentile to go with the highest rate of forced incompletions. Williams is also a solid run defender and with the skills to fit as a free safety in any scheme.

Contract Analysis: Williams is infamous for the Minneapolis Miracle, which is a shame because he’s been a great player for the Saints on the back end. New Orleans brought their 2009 first-round pick, Malcolm Jenkins, back to the bayou this offseason, which could be a sign that they are preparing for the departure of Williams.

Prediction: Jaguars sign Williams for four years, $57M ($14.25M APY): $30M total guaranteed, $18.5M fully guaranteed at signing."
 

ANKOMA33

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I think Saints Free agent Trey Hendrickson has a greater chance of landing in Jacksonville than Williams.

They need a pass rusher & have the cap space to offer him serious coin.
 
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They've updated, they now have:

6. Justin Simmon - 16.5 mil/yr sets market (Broncos)
7. Anthony Harris - 14.0 mil (Browns)
15. Marcus Williams - 14.25 mil (Raiders)
22. Marcus Maye - 15.0 mil (Jets)
23. John Johnson - 13.0 mil (Jags)

There are currently only 5 safeties making over 11 mil. All 5 of them make between 14-14.75 mil. Simmons signing for 16.5 seems like a pretty big jump in the market. 15 mil seems like a more realistic number and maybe the dominos would fall from there. I guess it's really a matter of who signs first.

I've seen PFF do market valuation in the past. It was crazy numbers. They admitted it was bad because they were ignoring the market and going strictly by value versus % of the cap. This looks more market-based but still high overall. Maybe it's just that good a group and you have 5 guys that should be paid like top 5 safeties. I guess top 10 really when all is said and done.

Bottom line, I don't trust PFF's market valuation yet. Last I saw it, it was a work in progress. I wouldn't be that surprised if Williams gets a suitor offering a deal like that though. If you think he's a top 10 safety it's not unreasonable, especially if you are trying to pry him away from a Saints deal.

I hope the safety market drives things down but I'm not sure that will happen, people may pay for the top guys regardless. There may be some really nice value if we lose on Marcus though. The covid reduced cap will be interesting. I'm curious to see how FA plays out because of it.

I think I'd top out on Marcus at 11 maybe pushing 12 mil. If he doesn't sign I'd use around 1/2 of that on the deep market to get a vet to handle those snaps. I don't think we have a replacement on the roster and I don't want to rely on a rookie to take those snaps.
 

Taker597

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They've updated, they now have:

6. Justin Simmon - 16.5 mil/yr sets market (Broncos)
7. Anthony Harris - 14.0 mil (Browns)
15. Marcus Williams - 14.25 mil (Raiders)
22. Marcus Maye - 15.0 mil (Jets)
23. John Johnson - 13.0 mil (Jags)

There are currently only 5 safeties making over 11 mil. All 5 of them make between 14-14.75 mil. Simmons signing for 16.5 seems like a pretty big jump in the market. 15 mil seems like a more realistic number and maybe the dominos would fall from there. I guess it's really a matter of who signs first.

I've seen PFF do market valuation in the past. It was crazy numbers. They admitted it was bad because they were ignoring the market and going strictly by value versus % of the cap. This looks more market-based but still high overall. Maybe it's just that good a group and you have 5 guys that should be paid like top 5 safeties. I guess top 10 really when all is said and done.

Bottom line, I don't trust PFF's market valuation yet. Last I saw it, it was a work in progress. I wouldn't be that surprised if Williams gets a suitor offering a deal like that though. If you think he's a top 10 safety it's not unreasonable, especially if you are trying to pry him away from a Saints deal.

I hope the safety market drives things down but I'm not sure that will happen, people may pay for the top guys regardless. There may be some really nice value if we lose on Marcus though. The covid reduced cap will be interesting. I'm curious to see how FA plays out because of it.

I think I'd top out on Marcus at 11 maybe pushing 12 mil. If he doesn't sign I'd use around 1/2 of that on the deep market to get a vet to handle those snaps. I don't think we have a replacement on the roster and I don't want to rely on a rookie to take those snaps.
Browns/Raiders make a lot sense for a splash safety move. Jets and Denver resigning their own talent does. The rest really don't. Justin Simmons probably gonna get tagged, but the Broncos should keep him.
 

RJ in Lafayette

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Williams is a difficult player to evaluate. When he entered the league, his strengths were ball and coverage skills with good hands. Until the final play of the 2017 season, I thought him a future foundation player on defense. But his tackling has always been below average, and for a player with his coverage skills, I have seen him too many times take bad angles in coverage. I think at this time Williams is a good, though not exceptional, safety. I think the Saints cannot afford, and should not pay, what another team will offer him. And I think that to reach his full potential, he may need a fresh start with another team where the Minnesota Miracle is not a fan memory. The PFF grades often baffle me.
 

Outbackjack

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1. Really suspect tackler
2. Don’t ever recall him forcing a fumble.
3. Gets beat in CRUCIAL times on long passes
4. His INTs are typically overthrows, or end of game where teams are desperately driving. ....including hail Mary’s.
5. They still count, but he’s not ball hawking and going and snatching hisINTs from the WR.
6. Minneapolis Miracle.

I know what PFF says, but my eyes see it differently.
 

Beast

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Not sure if you want CJ in FS. He doesn't have that range. Plus, it would probably negate his best skill set and create a hole at nickel. It's easier to draft a safety than it is to find a good NB.
Getting into opponent WR’s heads?? Much more difficult to do that 15-20 yards off the LOS. 😂
 

ELLIASJWILLIAMS

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Williams is a difficult player to evaluate. When he entered the league, his strengths were ball and coverage skills with good hands. Until the final play of the 2017 season, I thought him a future foundation player on defense. But his tackling has always been below average, and for a player with his coverage skills, I have seen him too many times take bad angles in coverage. I think at this time Williams is a good, though not exceptional, safety. I think the Saints cannot afford, and should not pay, what another team will offer him. And I think that to reach his full potential, he may need a fresh start with another team where the Minnesota Miracle is not a fan memory. The PFF grades often baffle me.
I would not only say Williams is good, I’d say he’s really good...but I agree...he’s not exceptional.

The D got better when Kwon arrived because of his ability to play the short /intermediate middle. This in turn allowed Williams to not have to protect that area as much.

Simplified his reads if you will.

And to his credit he did it at a HIGH level.

Still he’s not an all pro talent. Very good, yes, but we can agree he ain’t 36 year old Charles Woodson 2nd stint with the Raiders good.

Someone’s going to pay him like that though.

Shouldn’t be us.

Give a rookie those same simplified reads and for cheaper. You also have one less player left in the secondary that was a part of the Minessota Miracle.

If the safety market drops his price I’d be glad to have him back but I’m not willing to break the bank.
 

Rdanderson91

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That’d put him right in the middle of Eddie Jackson and Kevin Byard.
2 safeties who are MUCH better tacklers than Williams. One of which, Byard, has much better ball hawking skills.

Confucius say “one must not overpay for a safety who doesn’t actually save anything.”

He’s not worth it. Plain and simple. If i never have to see another diving, back-of-the-shoulder attempt at a whiffed tackle, it’ll be too soon. And I actually like the guy.
 

Rdanderson91

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Confirmed we draft a FS in round 1. Paris Ford, come on down.

Ball hawk with great tackling technique.

His only knock is his size (6 ft. 190 LBs). That’s plenty big enough for FS in the NFL when you’re a playmaker. He could easily put on 10 pounds before training camp.
 

SweetT

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1. Really suspect tackler
2. Don’t ever recall him forcing a fumble.
3. Gets beat in CRUCIAL times on long passes
4. His INTs are typically overthrows, or end of game where teams are desperately driving. ....including hail Mary’s.
5. They still count, but he’s not ball hawking and going and snatching hisINTs from the WR.
6. Minneapolis Miracle.

I know what PFF says, but my eyes see it differently.
Thank you. For the life of me, I just don’t see the allure of MW. I’ve seen some FS ranging from good-great-elite, who dominates games. I’ve never seen MW be an X factor in any game honestly. He’s just “there” somewhere. It’s weird.
 

NOLAaustin

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1. Really suspect tackler
2. Don’t ever recall him forcing a fumble.
3. Gets beat in CRUCIAL times on long passes
4. His INTs are typically overthrows, or end of game where teams are desperately driving. ....including hail Mary’s.
5. They still count, but he’s not ball hawking and going and snatching hisINTs from the WR.
6. Minneapolis Miracle.

I know what PFF says, but my eyes see it differently.
These are all excellent points...especially #3. #4 is a good example of where the stats dont paint the full picture.

I know the minny miracle is a factor here, but I’ve never felt great about him with the game on the line.
 

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