Playoff odds (1 Viewer)

retthib

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<TABLE class=stats border=2 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 itxtvisited="1"><TBODY itxtvisited="1"><TR itxtvisited="1"><TH itxtvisited="1">Team</TH><TH itxtvisited="1">Rec</TH><TH align=right itxtvisited="1">DAVE</TH><TH align=right itxtvisited="1">Mean Wins</TH><TH align=right itxtvisited="1">#1</TH><TH align=right itxtvisited="1">#2</TH><TH align=right itxtvisited="1">#3</TH><TH align=right itxtvisited="1">#4</TH><TH align=right itxtvisited="1">#5</TH><TH align=right itxtvisited="1">#6</TH><TH align=right itxtvisited="1">DIV</TH><TH align=right itxtvisited="1">BYE</TH><TH align=right itxtvisited="1">WC</TH><TH align=right itxtvisited="1">TOT</TH><TH align=right itxtvisited="1">CHANGE</TH></TR><TR itxtvisited="1"><TD itxtvisited="1">NO</TD><TD itxtvisited="1">2-0</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">9.9%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">10.6</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">23.1%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">22.3%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">19.3%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">12.6%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">4.7%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">4.6%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">77.4%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">45.4%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">9.2%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">86.6%</TD><TD style="COLOR: green" align=right itxtvisited="1">25.0%</TD></TR><TR itxtvisited="1"><TD itxtvisited="1">ATL</TD><TD itxtvisited="1">2-0</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">-7.3%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">8.2</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">2.3%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">3.9%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">5.8%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">6.9%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">7.6%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">7.8%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">19.0%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">6.3%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">15.3%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">34.4%</TD><TD style="COLOR: green" align=right itxtvisited="1">5.9%</TD></TR><TR itxtvisited="1"><TD itxtvisited="1">TB</TD><TD itxtvisited="1">0-2</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">-16.5%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">5.5</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">0.0%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">0.2%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">0.5%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">1.3%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">0.6%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">1.4%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">2.0%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">0.3%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">2.0%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">4.0%</TD><TD style="COLOR: red" align=right itxtvisited="1">-6.6%</TD></TR><TR itxtvisited="1"><TD itxtvisited="1">CAR</TD><TD itxtvisited="1">0-2</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">-17.3%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">5.5</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">0.1%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">0.1%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">0.4%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">1.0%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">0.3%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">1.0%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">1.6%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">0.2%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">1.3%</TD><TD align=right itxtvisited="1">2.9%</TD><TD style="COLOR: red" align=right itxtvisited="1">-12.9%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

Under statistics, click on playoff odds.

I like the way these guys think.
 

rpmgatech

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If we win this weekend, we damn well better make the playoffs. I feel really good about us this year. We have a swagger about us that I haven't seen in a Saints team ... ever. That's a good thing.
 

theSpaniard

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That most likely has to do w/ the strength of schedule formula. But not 100% sure.

Partially right. Carolina has a division loss already, whereas TB does not. So it is easier for TB to turn it around and make the playoffs than Carolina based on the remaining schedule.
 

donato

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Anyone care to decipher this for those of us with little experience in these charts and/or drain bramage?
 
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retthib

retthib

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Anyone care to decipher this for those of us with little experience in these charts and/or drain bramage?

From what I can decipher is they basically take each remaining game and play each and every scenario out up to 10,000 simulations and come up w/ a % breakdown as to each teams projection to win the division, WC, Bye week, etc...I tried understanding some of the different simulations and the reason that # is so high is because it is based on actual plays. I could be totally wrong, LOL, I just thought it was interesting that we were favored to get 10 + wins and ATL 8.




Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 10,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.
 

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