Playoff Scenario - Resting Players vs. Playing for the #1 Seed? (1 Viewer)

[Saint Spud]

Look at it like this:

Vegas says no individual player outside of QBs is worth more than 1-1.5 points.

The difference between playing the NFFCG in LA vs. New Orleans is a full 6 points (3.5 for Saints' homefield, 2.5 for LA's).

HFA means a ton. Gotta go all out.

 

[town123]

I voted with the 6% crowd. If you play #72 too soon and he gets hurt again.... goodbye SB IMO.

 

[saintsmarchin]

only rest we get is if Eagles upset Rams and we win the next 2

 

[Saintsfan8989]

New England had already lost the #1 seed cause Denver owned the tie breaker over them. They both finished 12-4 that year, but it was meaningless since the Broncos owned the tie breaker.

That was the year that Denver had the big 14 point comeback against them at Mile High with Brock O starting at QB. The turning point of that game was a special teams fumble, which ignited Denver's offense to finally score another TD. They piddled around for a while until finally scoring another one to tie the game and get OT. The Pats offense couldn't do anything as that game progressed cause Denver's defense was just too good for them. The 2015 Broncos were a strange team that was all defense and no offense. Their offense struggled, but their defense would painfully grind games out and make them into a living hell for opposing offenses. Just look at how they were humiliating Carolina in the 4th quarter of the SB.

New England lost another game that year due to special teams that came back to haunt them. The Eagles game where Malcolm Jenkins had the 100 yard TD return. The turning point of that game though was a blocked punt that resulted in a TD. I believe there were two special teams mishaps in this game that was a 14 point swing for the Eagles.

They didn't lose the #1 seed by resting their starters. They squandered it away vs Denver and then that painful loss to Philly.

No...the Patriots and Broncos went into their week 17 games with a 12-3 and 11-4 record respectively. New England would've had HFA throughout simply by winning in Miami. Instead, they decided to basically "rest" injured guys by running a washed up Steven Jackson all game. Denver won their week 17 game. Point being, New England's losses to the Jets, Eagles, and Broncos previously would've been a moot point had they beat a bad Miami team. And actually tried hard. So yes, losing to Miami effectively ended their hopes of being a 1 seed. There's no way they lose that AFCCG at home. They gambled and lost.

 

[ChaChingBaby]

No...the Patriots and Broncos went into their week 17 games with a 12-3 and 11-4 record respectively. New England would've had HFA throughout simply by winning in Miami. Instead, they decided to basically "rest" injured guys by running a washed up Steven Jackson all game. Denver won their week 17 game. Point being, New England's losses to the Jets, Eagles, and Broncos previously would've been a moot point had they beat a bad Miami team. And actually tried hard. So yes, losing to Miami effectively ended their hopes of being a 1 seed. There's no way they lose that AFCCG at home. They gambled and lost.

Against Denver's defense that year? I don't know. I think the Broncos had a great chance of going into Foxboro and pummeling them like they did in a snowy night game at Mile High in the regular season. That defense don't get enough credit like they should. They humiliated teams and practically tried to kill quarterbacks. Both those games vs the Pats, Miller was all over Brady punishing him.

The 2015 Broncos defense was the last historically great defense we've seen and we probably won't see another dominant defense like that. They completely shut the Pats offense down in that regular season game and then in the playoffs, they had the edge over them for most of that game. The Pats were held to just 9 points for most of that game.

Denver actually played a lot better than people give them credit for in the playoffs that year. Manning fell off a cliff in production and his arm was definitely shot, but he didn't turn the ball over a bunch of times in either of their playoff games. He did just enough to put points on the board and let his defense take care of the rest. Of course he played bad in the SB, but that's a different story.

 

[Bartyboy]

My only guy I would save would be Armstead. Will that extra month make a difference? If so keep him out.
Will playing him the last 3 games make it worse? Then let him sit.

 

[whodatlady]

Didn’t Payton just give his young players a playoff history stressing the importance of home field advantage?

5-0 Home
1-5 Away

He would never rest starters if #1 seed is attainable.

 

[SaintsFanInLA]

#1 seed bro. Anybody coming to the Dome getting blasted. Period. Everyone knows this.

Until the #1 seed is unattainable, then it should be all hands on deck to keep the #1 seed. Make no mistake if we can get those 3 wins the # 1 seed will be a huge boost to get us to the BIG Game!

↑↑These↑↑

Seriously. It's not a guarantee but it gives you a better chance to win. You play to give yourself your best advantage.

 

[ilvdsnts]

Neither in the poll. You play everyone that can play until you have nothing to lose or gain. Then you can rest those who need it or that you want to protect when you have everything clinched that you can clinch. Too many weeks off and you risk coming back rusty.

 

[ilvdsnts]

I heard an interesting stat:
Advantage in regular season: 56% home team wins.
Wildcard round: 56% Home team
Divisional rd: Home team(and bye team) 76%
Conference rd: Home team 56%.

The Big advantage is in getting the 1st rd bye(1 or 2 seed). The advantage in the other rounds while it is an advantage is no bigger than any other round or the regular season.
Not saying we shouldn't try for the 1 seed because I would rather a 56% chance to win the Conference CG than a 44%, but the 1st rd bye is the biggie.

 

[crawfish2010]

Payton is 5-0 at home in the playoffs
Payton is 1-5 on the road in the playoffs

 

[Saint Kamara]

Didn't the Patriots try to rest players over playing for the 1 seed a few years ago? I believe they fell to the 2 and lost in Denver in the AFCCG. You always go for the 1 seed.

No the Patriots blew a 10 point lead in the 4th quarter to Brock Osweiler in the regular season game that decided which team ended up with the 1 seed. A muffed punt of all things turned that game around. Otherwise we'd still be talking about how Peyton Manning only has one ring.

 

[0rion]

They can get all the rest they want after the Superbowl. Until then it's hammer down all out football. 1 seed is extremely important.

 

[Saint Kamara]

2010 we played to try to win the game needing a terrible Carolina team to upset Atlanta in order to win the division and get a bye. We ended up getting Jimmy Graham, Malcolm Jenkins and Chris ivory injured and all missed the Seattle playoff game. I'm still convinced had we sat our core players we would have won the Super Bowl that season.

 

[Kamara Time in NO]

Is this the real life?