Playoffs/Superbowl chances NFCS edition (1 Viewer)

[woohoosaint]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-nfl-predictions/

Here's how the website gets their data:
"How this works: This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after every game. Our model uses Elo ratings (a measure of strength based on head-to-head results and quality of opponent) to calculate teams’ chances of winning their regular-season games and advancing to and through the playoffs. Full methodology »"

Saints:

Make playoffs - 99%

Win division - 84%

Win Super Bowl - 21%

Panthers:

Make playoffs - 71%

Win division - 15%

Win Super Bowl - 4%

Falcons:

Make playoffs - 21%

Win division - <1%

Win Super Bowl - <1%

Bucs:

Make playoffs - 2%

Win division - <1%

Win Super Bowl - <1%

Saints are rated as the highest probability in the NFL to win the Super Bowl.

 

[NMS]

And I'm sure that is tied to having HFA throughout. Thanks for the #s . By the way, seeing <1 next to any Falcon chances is a warm and fuzzy.

 

[woohoosaint]

And I'm sure that is tied to having HFA throughout. Thanks for the #s . By the way, seeing <1 next to any Falcon chances is a warm and fuzzy.

1) Yes.
2) You're welcome.
3) Same here. Lol.

 

[rob22278]

The falcons % is actually 0.283.

 

[PayOrPlay]

The one blotch in the 538.com analysis is that they see the Rams having higher chances of making the playoffs, division championship, and 1st-round bye than we do, perhaps because the NFCW is less competitive than the NFCS. They also have a slightly better wins projection for the Rams (13.0 vs. 12.9), which may or may not mean anything in practical terms.

By contrast, they give the Saints a notably higher chance of actually winning the whole thing (21% vs. 13%), which might be a result of the Saints currently having the highest ELO rating of any team, which in turn is an artifact of strength-of-schedule weighting: the computer seems to be saying that, based on performance to date, if we make it to the Super Bowl, we really ought to win the darn thing.

 

[rodgepodge9]

The one blotch in the 538.com analysis is that they see the Rams having higher chances of making the playoffs, division championship, and 1st-round bye than we do, perhaps because the NFCW is less competitive than the NFCS. They also have a slightly better wins projection for the Rams (13.0 vs. 12.9), which may or may not mean anything in practical terms.

By contrast, they give the Saints a notably higher chance of actually winning the whole thing (21% vs. 13%), which might be a result of the Saints currently having the highest ELO rating of any team, which in turn is an artifact of strength-of-schedule weighting: the computer seems to be saying that, based on performance to date, if we make it to the Super Bowl, we really ought to win the darn thing.

I wouldn't really call it a 'blotch' ... while the Saints have done everything to prove that we ARE the best team in the NFL right now... the Rams have a significantly easier schedule than we do for the rest of the season. Seems pretty obvious as to why those percentages would be higher for them

 

[mit98]

The Rams also have one more win than the Saints right now since they haven't had their bye.

 

[Clintonrebel]

The Rams also have one more win than the Saints right now since they haven't had their bye.

All other things being even, in the world of statistics that would give them a slight edge over us on win total chances, even before you talk about strength of schedule.

I'm not worried.

 

[woohoosaint]

The one blotch in the 538.com analysis is that they see the Rams having higher chances of making the playoffs, division championship, and 1st-round bye than we do, perhaps because the NFCW is less competitive than the NFCS. They also have a slightly better wins projection for the Rams (13.0 vs. 12.9), which may or may not mean anything in practical terms.

By contrast, they give the Saints a notably higher chance of actually winning the whole thing (21% vs. 13%), which might be a result of the Saints currently having the highest ELO rating of any team, which in turn is an artifact of strength-of-schedule weighting: the computer seems to be saying that, based on performance to date, if we make it to the Super Bowl, we really ought to win the darn thing.

Well the Rams could clinch the division tonight if the Seahawks lose tonight.

And it's only week 11.

That shows how weak of a division the NFCW is.