Point per play margin (differential) stat most important in football (1 Viewer)

[bclemms]

I've been saying for years if there is a holy grail to stats in the NFL it is this one. It's one that is widely ignored but it's basically a measure of scoring efficiency from all three phases of the game rolled into one stat. Last year, #1 and #2 were the Falcons and Pats. Almost every season the #1 team has been in the Super Bowl, quite a few times the #1 and #2 team ended up being the Super Bowl matchup. We have only finished the year #1 one time, in 2009. The past 3 seasons we've been in the bottom half. First pic is the stat for 2016, the second pic is the stat for 2017 and the last pic is the stat for the last 3 games. The 2007 Patriots managed a .233 the only team to ever finish above .200 since the stat has been kept. Just want to show just how high of a level we've been playing the last 3 weeks.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/points-per-play-margin?date=2017-10-16

 

[98greenGT]

Nice

 

[Jameth]

How is this calculated? I first assumed:

(pts scored - pts allowed)/(total plays)

This gives me 0.206 for the Saints yesterday, but the chart shows 0.265.

 

[Shibby]

How is this calculated? I first assumed:

(pts scored - pts allowed)/(total plays)

This gives me 0.206 for the Saints yesterday, but the chart shows 0.265.

Try (pts scored/total plays) - (pts allowed/total plays).

 

[Jameth]

How is this calculated? I first assumed:

(pts scored - pts allowed)/(total plays)

This gives me 0.206 for the Saints yesterday, but the chart shows 0.265.

Nevermind, I missed where it said margin. This seems to be about the same stat as average scoring margin.

 

[SDotJeezy]

Wouldn't the stat be skewed by the 3 Def tds we put up yesterday?

 

[AARPSaint]

Ah, it's points per play. Sorry,
I misquoted on a previous thread thinking it was points per drive. This makes more sense, assuming it takes into account defensive and special teams scores.

 

[showtimesaints]

Bclemms is on the money with this.

 

[bclemms]

Wouldn't the stat be skewed by the 3 Def tds we put up yesterday?

It skews the offensive side and the defensive side but the combined margin can't be skewed by how a point is scored. It's why I love the stat so much. It's basically a measure of a team's total efficiency.

 

[Clintonrebel]

Whoever has a bunch of free time, please go back and do 06, 09 and 11. Then I’ll decide if I agree how huge this stat is.

 

[bclemms]

Whoever has a bunch of free time, please go back and do 06, 09 and 11. Then I’ll decide if I agree how huge this stat is.

2006
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/points-per-play-margin?date=2007-02-05

2009
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/points-per-play-margin?date=2010-02-08

2011
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/points-per-play-margin?date=2012-02-05


Look at 2011 index at home. Talk about playing at an insane level.

 

[St.Fury]

Holy cow! We've been on quite a tear these last 3 games.

 

[showtimesaints]

Holy cow! We've been on quite a tear these last 3 games.

Yes we have but expect to regress, we cannot sustain at that level for the remainder of the season. We need to be in the top 5 to make a serious run.

 

[Saint DoubleL]

Yes we have but expect to regress, we cannot sustain at that level for the remainder of the season. We need to be in the top 5 to make a serious run.

I've seen nothing but improvement from this Defense and our Offense is getting healthy. I see no reason to believe that we won't continue on this path.

 

[bclemms]

I've seen nothing but improvement from this Defense and our Offense is getting healthy. I see no reason to believe that we won't continue on this path.

Nothing is impossible but statistically speaking, it's quite unlikely.



Going off of statistics, what is more likely to happen is the defense regresses some from the last 3 weeks while the offense improves some. Plus we've played some pretty bad offensive teams. The Panthers and Dolphins are not exactly offensive Juggernauts and we caught them both at ideal times. It looks as though we will be catching the Packers at an ideal next week. The brutal schedule we all looked at when it was first released has actually played to a big advantage. The Dolphins offense couldn't have been a better confidence fix to our defense when they needed it most. The Panthers were still trying to force Cam into a pocket passer when we played them. I really think we had the pieces in place this preseason but the only they were missing was experience and confidence. They got the confidence and gaining experience each week. On offense, as the offensive line finally gets some time to gel instead of all the shuffling around just to get by it will allow Brees and Payton to figure out how to best utilize the weapons we have this season. They are quite different than they have been in the previous seasons.

So I expect the defense to regress as we play better offensive teams but they have confidence, swagger and talent so I doubt they fall back to where they were in the past. We caught bad teams at the best time in the past and never played like this so they are certainly on to something. The offense is a lit stick of dynamite, it's just a matter of time before the fuse runs out. However, I don't think we are as explosive on offense as we once were. What we are though is tough and physical. The offensive style of play really matches our defensive style well and I'm starting to think we could be a great all around team if we aren't already.