Polar vortex (and how well it was forecast) (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

It’s cold out there y’all.

Good read about the forecasting:

The vortex was felt nearly across the entire continent. As many as 225 million Americans—from Alabama to Nevada—could have started their 8 a.m. commute in below-freezing temperatures.

It is dangerous, record-breaking, can’t-look-away weather. Yet this cold snap’s arrival was preceded by a marvel so spectacular that we hardly noticed it: It was correctly predicted. As early as a month ago, forecasters knew that colder-than-average weather would likely strike North America this month; a week ago, computer models spit out some of the same figures that appeared on thermometers today.

Meteorologists have never gotten a shiny magazine cover or a brooding Aaron Sorkin film, and the weather-research hub of Norman, Oklahoma, is rarely mentioned in the same breath as Palo Alto. But over the past few decades, scientists have gotten significantly—even staggeringly—better at predicting the weather.

How much better? “A modern five-day forecast is as accurate as a one-day forecast was in 1980,” says a new paper, published last week in the journal Science. “Useful forecasts now reach nine to 10 days into the future.”

More at https://www.theatlantic.com/science...r-vortex-weather-forecasting-good-now/581605/

 

[MLU]

It’s cold out there y’all.

Good read:



More at https://www.theatlantic.com/science...r-vortex-weather-forecasting-good-now/581605/

First time I ever cancelled flights because it was too damn cold...

 

[Bishop]

A balmy 16 today in RI.

Australia also enduring hottest summer ever temps of 116 degrees, for those about to ask what ever happened to global warming...
.

 

[0rion]

I read weeks ago about the polar vortex. I didn't doubt the forecast then. If memory serves me correctly they forecast more than 1 over the next few weeks. Wind chill was -30 this morning when I got up. We warmed up to an actual temp of -1 today. Going to be mid 50's on Monday.

That's a well written article.

 

[soupcan dan]

-11 yesterday with 35 mph winds. i spent the first four hours of work travelling to various businesses with a hair dryer, a 100 ft of extension cord and a truck with a marine inverter thawing out glass storefront locks. easy money, slight frost bite on my nose and forehead.

we knew it was coming. weather forecasting is way better than 30 yrs ago.

 

[efil4stnias]

I remember my wife telling me 2 weeks ago that they were forecasting possible snow for us. I was like yeeeah ok. Then a week ago the forecast remained with snow just north of us... Sure enough.

Pretty remarkable. 2 weeks out.

 

[efil4stnias]

Buddy just texted me... From Chicago. He said first time in his life he had frost windows from the inside lolol

 

[sonicboom]

What happened to global warming? Joke!

Tomorrow is suppose to start warming up.

I can't imagine what it's like in the Northern States of America. Brrrrrr!

 

[Wisco Steve]

Thank God it is starting to warm here by tonight...everything has been closed down last 48 hrs...plus we had 12" of snow Mon before the cold dipped in. Was -29 here this morning with wind chills approaching -60. Been hard on my dogs.

 

[sonicboom]

Thank God it is starting to warm here by tonight...everything has been closed down last 48 hrs...plus we had 12" of snow Mon before the cold dipped in. Was -29 here this morning with wind chills approaching -60. Been hard on my dogs.

Unreal. How is this possible? Blame Canada?

 

[superchuck500]

Thank God it is starting to warm here by tonight...everything has been closed down last 48 hrs...plus we had 12" of snow Mon before the cold dipped in. Was -29 here this morning with wind chills approaching -60. Been hard on my dogs.

Man, that's crazy. Even for Milwaukee!

 

[Merl]

Every year I get my dad and sister asking me to transfer up to New England to live closer to them. When I start to think about this happens and I remember just how much I hate cold weather so I stay right where I am!

 

[bonnjer]

Anything lower than about 55 is too cold for my liking. I don't even wanna think about negative temps.

 

[RazorOye]

Blame Canada?

we're in this together...

 

[Swamprat]

Noble old guards such at Nash Roberts and Neil Frank were pioneers with their ability to understand weather physics and translate that into improved forecasts which materially benefited millions of people. I would imagine their dream was to achieve even higher understanding and this is what has been transpiring over the last few decades. The efforts undertaken by hundreds, if not thousands, of Engineers to make the measurements, interpret the data and develop realistic models of atmospheric turbulence and flow fields has been phenomenal. Our (collective) ability to accurately predict weather patterns weeks in advance is remarkable and I can’t wait to see what comes next.



Great job and most sincerest appreciation for all the folks involved!



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