Predict the Thomas extension (1 Viewer)

[Saint Greg]

From everything coming out of the workouts and camp so far, Teddy Bridgewater really shined when Drew was in California in court.

That was the title of an article after the first day but I wouldn't say "from everything coming out of camp." The reviews on WWL were a little more mixed..and we know P-Rob picked him off two days in a row.

 

[Saint Greg]

Teams have until the start of Free Agency, which is March 18th, to sign their own unrestricted free agents so even if they don't extend Thomas this year they still have time in 2020 before other teams can approach him about joining their team.

And there's the franchise tag. I'm sure we don't want it to go that far though.

 

[Doug B]

Seems like it’s getting close and he’s going to be the highest paid receiver in nfl history

For about 6-8 months. Assuming MT extends this summer: by end of league year 2020, there will probably be 5 or 6 more WR with bigger contracts than Thomas -- and MT will be a bargain for the Saints.

 

[Doug B]

They better do it soon before Julio resets the market. If I am MT’s agent I would wait

This is what I thought was happening ... but if Loomis can get it done before Julio resets the market, all the better.

 

[Optimistic Ozzy]

A five year extension would be a mistake imo. Drew won't make it another five years and do you want your team paying a WR in the $20M/year without a QB that can reliably get him the ball? I wouldn't.

But would you want a middle of the pack receiver for a QB who is not elite?

 

[Optimistic Ozzy]

First off I think it gets done just before the first preseason game.

4 years 73 million 55 million guaranteed.

First 8 years as a Saint 78 million, just under $10 million a year for a player who is headed to the Hall of Fame. That is what is known as maximum bang for the buck.

900 receptions for $78 million. Yep, that's a good deal.

I think before training camp, like in the next 3 weeks.

 

[insidejob]

I think before training camp, like in the next 3 weeks.

If they're working on it now, negotiations would have to totally fall apart (which would be an awful sign) for him not to have an extension at least before camp ends.

 

[WhoDatInTexas]

They better do it soon before Julio resets the market. If I am MT’s agent I would wait

Your client is scheduled to make $1.2M next year with nothing guaranteed after that. Football is a violent sport and major injuries can happen (yes, insurance exists, but not for the kind of money your client wants and it generally only plays out if your client never plays again). Moreover, if your client has a great year, the Saints can franchise him in 2020 for ~$16.5M with nothing guaranteed after that. And if he knocks it out of the park in 2020, they can likely franchise him in 2021 for ~$22M with nothing guaranteed after that. If the Saints choose to, they can have your client for < $42M over the next 3 years. And each 1 year contract carries with it the risk of a major salary drop off the next year if the production numbers fall off. On top of that, your client (who is a badass that we at SR all love and has an amazing work ethic) has undoubtedly benefited from having a top-5 all-time QB throwing him the ball. When Brees retires, it is likely that Thomas' numbers take a hit. And lower production = lower pay.

You have to provide value to your client (your are receiving 1-3% after all). Right now, your client is guaranteed $1.2M for the remainder of his career. If he signs a 4 year extension for $75M with $45M guaranteed, you have protected him long-term and set him up to seek an extension in the final year of his contract. The availability of a franchise tags limits your upside if you play out his contract (my guess would be about $8M). Still want to roll the dice for what amounts to an extra 10%?

 

[saint_drago]

I am against front loading your stars contracts. Once the guaranteed money is gone, their contracts don’t “look good” which often leads to hold outs over demands for new contract. See Julio Jones. He wanted a new contract after year 2 of his 5 year deal. Does Julio’s 13 million this year look good? No. But it doesn’t account for the 38 million he was paid in years 1 & 2.

Just say no to front loading your studs.

This is true. We've seen it time and time again. A player is made the highest paid player at his position. The player is happy, the team is happy, and everything is everything. But then another player signs for more and the original player is thinking, "I make less than him but I'm better than him. Makes no sense. I deserve more than him."

So what ends up happening is that star players are happy for like a season and then the grumbling starts. Seemed like Darrelle Revis held out before every season of his career.

 

[dtc]

At his age, MT will get 70% of his deal guaranteed. 5 years, 90 mill with 60-65 guaranteed is likely close

Extension of 6 for 120 and 65 guaranteed.

 

[BroKV]

maybe 2-4?

I say 1 or 2, depending on another SB win. If we win this year I think he retires.

 

[mikaloyd]

4 years 21 million a year 55 million guartanteed

 

[Prodigy]

So how much of this would affect us in cap space (12m after Cam Jordan extension)?

 

[NeedforSnead]

4 year extension worth 80mil with probably some clauses for all pro or bowl that can bring it to 85ish range. Ill go with 50 mil guarenteed.

 

[SigFreudianSlip]

I can’t venture a guess as to his salary, but I wonder if we will have enough for AK and some others. Personally I think we will as this is Drew’s last year (imo) opening up a lot of money with a QB on a cheaper or rookie deal.