Quite griping the Saints Can’t Draft (1 Viewer)

sbadeaux

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Return vs. Capital​

So now we come to the true test of drafting ability. How much return did each team get relative to the draft capital it had? We can find out by dividing each team's draft return by its draft capital in each year, then expressing that as a percentage. A score of 100% means that teams got the talent they were expected to get given how much draft capital they had. That's a league-average GM in drafting ability.


Draft Return vs. Draft Capital, 2010-2019
Team201020112012201320142015201620172018201910-Yr5-Yr
SEA132%224%236%77%88%175%117%107%121%74%135%111%
GB178%121%90%206%125%94%139%113%87%69%120%98%
DAL154%125%60%111%175%104%163%103%110%62%120%118%
PIT188%125%119%120%90%71%99%146%83%114%117%103%
NO125%119%164%143%67%72%128%151%70%148%114%111%
BAL61%138%85%175%108%94%94%73%185%118%113%113%
KC70%108%73%94%143%165%142%141%71%185%113%142%
NE139%95%121%128%123%155%190%60%71%41%112%102%
WAS98%102%115%118%154%108%65%103%73%138%108%101%
ATL84%154%56%108%97%116%149%84%117%96%108%113%
MIN94%76%89%90%104%169%51%172%94%124%106%126%
HOU91%129%137%111%69%89%87%142%127%98%106%108%
IND108%68%96%54%117%104%122%111%146%83%105%117%
CAR114%73%123%129%132%128%80%119%97%66%104%99%
MIA135%114%117%50%108%108%100%86%118%119%103%106%
CHI128%80%60%149%98%73%112%108%104%162%101%103%
PHI90%104%128%117%55%90%131%69%111%83%98%95%
DEN130%102%129%58%123%83%131%53%86%81%98%85%
BUF44%83%101%98%94%129%54%162%107%130%97%115%
DET86%33%86%143%101%93%128%111%99%61%95%97%
OAK79%99%121%102%171%68%61%63%101%90%94%79%
LAR67%70%87%86%94%125%71%148%103%131%94%114%
CIN132%116%105%94%91%50%113%81%100%53%94%78%
SF116%110%35%73%74%100%63%92%101%140%93%100%
NYG98%52%43%84%117%98%77%91%89%120%90%97%
LAC91%84%86%116%40%127%65%120%107%57%90%95%
ARI104%85%108%105%81%141%52%64%71%85%90%84%
JAX53%47%60%59%127%63%114%77%126%137%87%101%
TEN76%95%81%49%123%58%96%77%105%137%87%90%
TB62%67%111%110%78%126%47%78%78%111%86%90%
CLE84%96%80%39%61%77%80%63%77%164%78%81%
NYJ47%164%85%77%42%51%108%72%68%66%74%71%
Percentage of CarAV generated by drafted players (relative to total CarAV in the draft), divided by percentage of expected CarAV from draft picks used.
After adjusting for the amount of draft capital used, the Seahawks remain in the No. 1 position. By a mile. At a 135% average over the last decade, they are 15% higher than the next two teams, Green Bay and Dallas. Schneider wins! (Although Carroll deserves some credit for developing those players, of course.) The Seahawks have the two best drafts of the last decade (2011 and, of course, 2012). Even if you only look at the last five years, they are still doing well at tenth in the league (Kansas City and Minnesota are now on top, while Dallas remains in third). No, 2019 wasn't good at 74%, but when Marquis Blair, L.J. Collier, and Travis Homer all become starters, it will start looking much better, right?

If you look at the top teams on this list, you see a lot of well-run organizations with a lot of stability: Seattle, Green Bay, Dallas, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Baltimore, Kansas City, New England. It seems like Dallas has done a great job of drafting, but they haven't really had the success these other teams had. Maybe their coaching wasn't that good? We can also see how badly New England has drafted in the last three years. It doesn't look quite as bad as the raw numbers, but it's still very bad, easily the worst in that time. But over the last five years, they are right about at average, so maybe things aren't that bad?

At the bottom of the list you have Tampa Bay (86%), Cleveland (78%), and the Jets (74%). Jets fans are not surprised, I'm sure, with only two above-average drafts in the last decade but three in the bottom 10%. They are at the bottom of the list for the last five years as well. Tampa Bay has struggled in the draft, not getting what they should have out of their third-best draft capital, while Cleveland has squandered the best draft capital of the decade. At least the 2019 draft is looking good for Cleveland, but that's only because they had very little draft capital (very unusual for them). The actual raw return is still below average. The factory of sadness is still open for business.


 

Super

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Common man. The griping back and forth on draft day is one of the highlights of off-season. 😄.
And hey, right now, no one is right and no one is wrong. Now, generally I trust the highly paid professionals just a tad more than the self proclaimed Internet forum draft geniuses, but hey, you never know.
 

guidomerkinsrules

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Common man. The griping back and forth on draft day is one of the highlights of off-season. 😄.
And hey, right now, no one is right and no one is wrong. Now, generally I trust the highly paid professionals just a tad more than the self proclaimed Internet forum draft geniuses, but hey, you never know.
Agreed no one’s right, but plenty of people are wrong
 

jasonsw

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Lol, boy the Jets really stink at drafting
 

DerrickB

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Who said the Saints cannot draft?
 

RJ in Lafayette

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I do not understand this statistical analysis. How is "draft capital" determined? Is it determined by the number of picks a team originally had, or the number of picks actually used? Does it consider round and the number in each round where a pick is made?

What is "draft return" and how is it determined?

Unless the terms are clearly defined, this analysis has no significance.

And the results make no sense. In percentage terms, our 2012 draft, featuring Akiem Hicks and Corey White, was our best draft since 2010? Our 2013 and 2019 drafts were better than our 2016 draft, with Rankins, Thomas, Bell and Onyemata?
 
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I do not understand this statistical analysis. How is "draft capital" determined? Is it determined by the number of picks a team originally had, or the number of picks actually used? Does it consider round and the number in each round where a pick is made?

What is "draft return" and how is it determined?

Unless the terms are clearly defined, this analysis has no significance.

And the results make no sense. In percentage terms, our 2012 draft, featuring Akiem Hicks and Corey White, was our best draft since 2010? Our 2013 and 2019 drafts were better than our 2016 draft?

Don’t look into it. Studies like this one are typically done by people with very limited understanding on how to conduct a study. There was no mention of how these players were graded. There was no mention of what draft capital means. People will see these charts and just accept it as reality.

Another thing...if a team trades all of their picks in a draft for a single player...such as Ricky Williams. That would be good “draft return” right? But it doesn’t mean that it’s a good draft. The Saints have very reliably traded up over the years...which should theoretically improve the chances of having a player pan out...but there’s a trade off because you have fewer players that can pan out. So this methodology actually works to the Saints advantage because they have had the fewest picks. So I think that is a significant limitation of the “study” if you can call it that.
 
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Zack Lee

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Man based on that chart, R Wilson has every right to be upset. They are getting him talent but not coming away with anything to show for it.
 

los226

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TB seems to have a lot of young talent for a team that doesn’t draft well....
 

Mackenzie

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So the Saints are better at drafting than the Patriots and the 2019 draft is almost just as good as the 2017 draft. Got it. 🤣🤣😂😂
 

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