Quite griping the Saints Can’t Draft (1 Viewer)

sbadeaux

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Return vs. Capital​

So now we come to the true test of drafting ability. How much return did each team get relative to the draft capital it had? We can find out by dividing each team's draft return by its draft capital in each year, then expressing that as a percentage. A score of 100% means that teams got the talent they were expected to get given how much draft capital they had. That's a league-average GM in drafting ability.


Draft Return vs. Draft Capital, 2010-2019
Team201020112012201320142015201620172018201910-Yr5-Yr
SEA132%224%236%77%88%175%117%107%121%74%135%111%
GB178%121%90%206%125%94%139%113%87%69%120%98%
DAL154%125%60%111%175%104%163%103%110%62%120%118%
PIT188%125%119%120%90%71%99%146%83%114%117%103%
NO125%119%164%143%67%72%128%151%70%148%114%111%
BAL61%138%85%175%108%94%94%73%185%118%113%113%
KC70%108%73%94%143%165%142%141%71%185%113%142%
NE139%95%121%128%123%155%190%60%71%41%112%102%
WAS98%102%115%118%154%108%65%103%73%138%108%101%
ATL84%154%56%108%97%116%149%84%117%96%108%113%
MIN94%76%89%90%104%169%51%172%94%124%106%126%
HOU91%129%137%111%69%89%87%142%127%98%106%108%
IND108%68%96%54%117%104%122%111%146%83%105%117%
CAR114%73%123%129%132%128%80%119%97%66%104%99%
MIA135%114%117%50%108%108%100%86%118%119%103%106%
CHI128%80%60%149%98%73%112%108%104%162%101%103%
PHI90%104%128%117%55%90%131%69%111%83%98%95%
DEN130%102%129%58%123%83%131%53%86%81%98%85%
BUF44%83%101%98%94%129%54%162%107%130%97%115%
DET86%33%86%143%101%93%128%111%99%61%95%97%
OAK79%99%121%102%171%68%61%63%101%90%94%79%
LAR67%70%87%86%94%125%71%148%103%131%94%114%
CIN132%116%105%94%91%50%113%81%100%53%94%78%
SF116%110%35%73%74%100%63%92%101%140%93%100%
NYG98%52%43%84%117%98%77%91%89%120%90%97%
LAC91%84%86%116%40%127%65%120%107%57%90%95%
ARI104%85%108%105%81%141%52%64%71%85%90%84%
JAX53%47%60%59%127%63%114%77%126%137%87%101%
TEN76%95%81%49%123%58%96%77%105%137%87%90%
TB62%67%111%110%78%126%47%78%78%111%86%90%
CLE84%96%80%39%61%77%80%63%77%164%78%81%
NYJ47%164%85%77%42%51%108%72%68%66%74%71%
Percentage of CarAV generated by drafted players (relative to total CarAV in the draft), divided by percentage of expected CarAV from draft picks used.
After adjusting for the amount of draft capital used, the Seahawks remain in the No. 1 position. By a mile. At a 135% average over the last decade, they are 15% higher than the next two teams, Green Bay and Dallas. Schneider wins! (Although Carroll deserves some credit for developing those players, of course.) The Seahawks have the two best drafts of the last decade (2011 and, of course, 2012). Even if you only look at the last five years, they are still doing well at tenth in the league (Kansas City and Minnesota are now on top, while Dallas remains in third). No, 2019 wasn't good at 74%, but when Marquis Blair, L.J. Collier, and Travis Homer all become starters, it will start looking much better, right?

If you look at the top teams on this list, you see a lot of well-run organizations with a lot of stability: Seattle, Green Bay, Dallas, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Baltimore, Kansas City, New England. It seems like Dallas has done a great job of drafting, but they haven't really had the success these other teams had. Maybe their coaching wasn't that good? We can also see how badly New England has drafted in the last three years. It doesn't look quite as bad as the raw numbers, but it's still very bad, easily the worst in that time. But over the last five years, they are right about at average, so maybe things aren't that bad?

At the bottom of the list you have Tampa Bay (86%), Cleveland (78%), and the Jets (74%). Jets fans are not surprised, I'm sure, with only two above-average drafts in the last decade but three in the bottom 10%. They are at the bottom of the list for the last five years as well. Tampa Bay has struggled in the draft, not getting what they should have out of their third-best draft capital, while Cleveland has squandered the best draft capital of the decade. At least the 2019 draft is looking good for Cleveland, but that's only because they had very little draft capital (very unusual for them). The actual raw return is still below average. The factory of sadness is still open for business.


 

Ti Rider

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The Saints have been very good at drafting in the recent past. Some years they absolutely nail it. But.....not always. Occasionally they have a clunker draft. On paper this year looks to be one of those -

1st - Turner - a big raw DE that should’ve dominated in college but didn’t. 10 career sacks in college (total, not a single season)

2nd - Werner - he’s “good” at everything but not “great” at anything.

3rd - Adebo - could’ve been a late first or high second round pick but opted out of the 2020 season with the Covid protocol. What does his skipping out on a crucial season say about his love/commitment to the game.

4th - Book - a scrappy undersized QB.....that the coach admits he sees himself in. Not to be too harsh on Payton but his NFL career consisted of being a replacement player during the players strike of 1987.

6th - Young - a giant lumbering OT who at best might be Zach Strief part two, at worst a camp body.

7th - Baker - a slightly more solidly built version of Trequan Smith. Can he stay healthier than Smith? We’ll see.

Honestly it’s too early to tell. Once these guys strap on pads their assessments may change completely but until then this sure looks like a clunker......
 

oodank

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Also consider that just because a team make you the starter doesnt mean the pick was a success. It just means the team played the guy they drafted.
 

rlpmd

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lies, damn lies or statistics. Show the metrics and defintion for return (not valid until 4 years out is urban legend), put up the rationale for the hypothesis and show us the real numbers (money). We probably do better in the draft than FA but it is certainly a combination both. TB won a SB on FA and Goat12 along with better cap management. When You blow at cap management, then you darn well better draft great. Making us get under the cap by hook or crook is not great cap management.
 

guidomerkinsrules

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The Saints have been very good at drafting in the recent past. Some years they absolutely nail it. But.....not always. Occasionally they have a clunker draft. On paper this year looks to be one of those -

1st - Turner - a big raw DE that should’ve dominated in college but didn’t. 10 career sacks in college (total, not a single season)

2nd - Werner - he’s “good” at everything but not “great” at anything.

3rd - Adebo - could’ve been a late first or high second round pick but opted out of the 2020 season with the Covid protocol. What does his skipping out on a crucial season say about his love/commitment to the game.

4th - Book - a scrappy undersized QB.....that the coach admits he sees himself in. Not to be too harsh on Payton but his NFL career consisted of being a replacement player during the players strike of 1987.

6th - Young - a giant lumbering OT who at best might be Zach Strief part two, at worst a camp body.

7th - Baker - a slightly more solidly built version of Trequan Smith. Can he stay healthier than Smith? We’ll see.

Honestly it’s too early to tell. Once these guys strap on pads their assessments may change completely but until then this sure looks like a clunker......
I mean all of us are doing this to an extent, but you started with a conclusion and worked your way backwards- focusing on faults and to generate a narrative (most egregious is the ‘sitting out/commitment to football’ thing - yikes that’s a troubling take)
 

Ti Rider

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I mean all of us are doing this to an extent, but you started with a conclusion and worked your way backwards- focusing on faults and to generate a narrative (most egregious is the ‘sitting out/commitment to football’ thing - yikes that’s a troubling take)

I did not start with the conclusion this was a bad draft (and it may still prove not to be). I read about each pick then watched video of each and then formulated my opinion. From what I read and watched the warning signs are there that several of these picks have a high failure potential. I do like a few - Werner, Adebo, and Young.

And my questioning of Adebo‘s opting of the season seems valid to me. Unless Adebo has a medical reason for opting out - diabetes, lung issues, etc. Let me put it like this - you don’t think Trevor Lawrence‘s love/commitment to the game wouldn’t be questioned had he opted out of the 2020 season?
 
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So your saying . If they listened to the fans they would be at 300% across the board... LOL.
 

RJ in Lafayette

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The OP obviously spent some time on the original post, and I commend him for his effort. But I honestly do not understand the methodology used, and the annual percentages for the Saints make little sense. It seems the percentages for the Saints are 125 in 2010, 119 in 2011, 164 in 2012, 143 in 2013, 67 in 2014, 72 in 2015, 128 in 2016, 151 in 2017, 70 in 2018, and 148 in 2019. In 2012, our best picks were Akiem Hicks and Corey White.

The 2016 draft was outstanding, the type of draft a team has every 5 to 7 years, but the 128 score was lower than the results for 2013 and 2019, and comparable to the score for 2010.

The 2017 draft was on an even higher level, the type of draft a team has every 10 to 20 years. Yet its percentage was lower than that for 2013, and only slightly higher than the number for 2013 and 2019.

I at times have been critical of our drafting, though the criticism has not really focused on the players we picked, but our penchant for trading away draft picks to trade up.
 
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sfidc3

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And my questioning of Adebo‘s opting of the season seems valid to me. Unless Adebo has a medical reason for opting out - diabetes, lung issues, etc. Let me put it like this - you don’t think Trevor Lawrence‘s love/commitment to the game wouldn’t be questioned had he opted out of the 2020 season?

I've seen a number of people state that sitting out is some kind of "football sin" where you question the kids "commitment"....I call total BS, this is utter nonsense.

With all the uncertainty of last year i think it is perfectly reasonable for players to sit out, now if they come into camp out of shape or overweight that's another thing....but judging by the pre draft workouts this is not the case with most players who did, include Adebo.....
 
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SaintJ

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Do you have evidence on the contrary?

And yes I do have evidence.

Here is one of many articles.

This was the quote in question:

Studies like this one are typically done by people with very limited understanding on how to conduct a study.
 

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