Quite griping the Saints Can’t Draft (1 Viewer)

sbadeaux

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Return vs. Capital​

So now we come to the true test of drafting ability. How much return did each team get relative to the draft capital it had? We can find out by dividing each team's draft return by its draft capital in each year, then expressing that as a percentage. A score of 100% means that teams got the talent they were expected to get given how much draft capital they had. That's a league-average GM in drafting ability.


Draft Return vs. Draft Capital, 2010-2019
Team201020112012201320142015201620172018201910-Yr5-Yr
SEA132%224%236%77%88%175%117%107%121%74%135%111%
GB178%121%90%206%125%94%139%113%87%69%120%98%
DAL154%125%60%111%175%104%163%103%110%62%120%118%
PIT188%125%119%120%90%71%99%146%83%114%117%103%
NO125%119%164%143%67%72%128%151%70%148%114%111%
BAL61%138%85%175%108%94%94%73%185%118%113%113%
KC70%108%73%94%143%165%142%141%71%185%113%142%
NE139%95%121%128%123%155%190%60%71%41%112%102%
WAS98%102%115%118%154%108%65%103%73%138%108%101%
ATL84%154%56%108%97%116%149%84%117%96%108%113%
MIN94%76%89%90%104%169%51%172%94%124%106%126%
HOU91%129%137%111%69%89%87%142%127%98%106%108%
IND108%68%96%54%117%104%122%111%146%83%105%117%
CAR114%73%123%129%132%128%80%119%97%66%104%99%
MIA135%114%117%50%108%108%100%86%118%119%103%106%
CHI128%80%60%149%98%73%112%108%104%162%101%103%
PHI90%104%128%117%55%90%131%69%111%83%98%95%
DEN130%102%129%58%123%83%131%53%86%81%98%85%
BUF44%83%101%98%94%129%54%162%107%130%97%115%
DET86%33%86%143%101%93%128%111%99%61%95%97%
OAK79%99%121%102%171%68%61%63%101%90%94%79%
LAR67%70%87%86%94%125%71%148%103%131%94%114%
CIN132%116%105%94%91%50%113%81%100%53%94%78%
SF116%110%35%73%74%100%63%92%101%140%93%100%
NYG98%52%43%84%117%98%77%91%89%120%90%97%
LAC91%84%86%116%40%127%65%120%107%57%90%95%
ARI104%85%108%105%81%141%52%64%71%85%90%84%
JAX53%47%60%59%127%63%114%77%126%137%87%101%
TEN76%95%81%49%123%58%96%77%105%137%87%90%
TB62%67%111%110%78%126%47%78%78%111%86%90%
CLE84%96%80%39%61%77%80%63%77%164%78%81%
NYJ47%164%85%77%42%51%108%72%68%66%74%71%
Percentage of CarAV generated by drafted players (relative to total CarAV in the draft), divided by percentage of expected CarAV from draft picks used.
After adjusting for the amount of draft capital used, the Seahawks remain in the No. 1 position. By a mile. At a 135% average over the last decade, they are 15% higher than the next two teams, Green Bay and Dallas. Schneider wins! (Although Carroll deserves some credit for developing those players, of course.) The Seahawks have the two best drafts of the last decade (2011 and, of course, 2012). Even if you only look at the last five years, they are still doing well at tenth in the league (Kansas City and Minnesota are now on top, while Dallas remains in third). No, 2019 wasn't good at 74%, but when Marquis Blair, L.J. Collier, and Travis Homer all become starters, it will start looking much better, right?

If you look at the top teams on this list, you see a lot of well-run organizations with a lot of stability: Seattle, Green Bay, Dallas, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Baltimore, Kansas City, New England. It seems like Dallas has done a great job of drafting, but they haven't really had the success these other teams had. Maybe their coaching wasn't that good? We can also see how badly New England has drafted in the last three years. It doesn't look quite as bad as the raw numbers, but it's still very bad, easily the worst in that time. But over the last five years, they are right about at average, so maybe things aren't that bad?

At the bottom of the list you have Tampa Bay (86%), Cleveland (78%), and the Jets (74%). Jets fans are not surprised, I'm sure, with only two above-average drafts in the last decade but three in the bottom 10%. They are at the bottom of the list for the last five years as well. Tampa Bay has struggled in the draft, not getting what they should have out of their third-best draft capital, while Cleveland has squandered the best draft capital of the decade. At least the 2019 draft is looking good for Cleveland, but that's only because they had very little draft capital (very unusual for them). The actual raw return is still below average. The factory of sadness is still open for business.


 

SaintJ

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Wait...are you asking me for data on how most people don’t understand how to conduct research? Because that’s a pretty lame request.
Pretty bold statement to make....without data.
 

SaintJ

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LOL. You lost the argument...and now you are picking something completely abstract to argue. Well done my friend
Now you're the one who's lost the argument.
 
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Now you're the one who's lost the argument.

LOL. I proved that there is a difference between combine and NFL testing numbers. You decided to change the narrative to trying to prove why most people who are completely clueless about statistics...are clueless about performing statistical analysis within "studies". Would you also like me to write you a proof on why smart people are smart and dumb people are dumb?
 

TruSaint

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Over the last 10 years the saints are the 4th best team at drafting in the league
 

SaintJ

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LOL. I proved that there is a difference between combine and NFL testing numbers. You decided to change the narrative to trying to prove why most people who are completely clueless about statistics...are clueless about performing statistical analysis within "studies". Would you also like me to write you a proof on why smart people are smart and dumb people are dumb?
:giggles:
 
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sbadeaux

sbadeaux

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Common man. The griping back and forth on draft day is one of the highlights of off-season. 😄.
And hey, right now, no one is right and no one is wrong. Now, generally I trust the highly paid professionals just a tad more than the self proclaimed Internet forum draft geniuses, but hey, you never know.
You are correct.I love the back-and-forth on the board about the draft. 99% Of Saints report posters a very intelligent and well informed. But we all know that 1% who seem to think the Saints just draft crappy every year and that’s not the case just look at the numbers were one of the top five drafting teams in the NFL over the last 10 years. Hence our record is in the top five in the last 10 years
 

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