Report: Raiders haven’t given Derek Carr permission to seek trade (1 Viewer)

[jahsoul357]

I like Winston. I'm one of the few (it feels like) who would have been happy to see him regain the starting job and see if there's a future with him here, but if you're looking for a production metric that distinguishes Carr from Winston, start with the TD to INT numbers.

Carr is 217 to 99 while Winston is 139 to 96.

We can get in the weeds about why that is but it's a significant difference, all the same.

I made mention of those numbers.

Carr as a Raider
217 TDs (avg. 24 per season - 4.4 TD Rate)
99 INTS (avg. 11 per season - 2.0 INT Rate)
248 YPG
64.6% completion percentage (aDOT since 2015 - 7.5)

Winston as a Buc
121 TDs (avg. 24 per season - 4.9 TD Rate)
88 INTS (avg. 17.6 per season - 3.5 INT Rate)
272 YPG
61.3% completion percentage (aDOT- 10.2)

Winston before Arians:
88 TDs (avg. 22 per season - 4.6 TD Rate)
58 INTs (avg. 14.5 per season - 3.0 INT Rate)
261 YPG
61.6% completion percentage (aDOT - 10.2)

What about any of those numbers make Carr significantly better than Winston? If we are being honest, nothing. And I know people like to say you can make stats look anyway you want, so I added yearly averages, rates, per games and completion percentage with aDOT. It's really all about perception. The same way that people said that Dalton moved the ball better against the Vikings than the week before against the Panthers, but in reality, we gained 19 first downs both weeks. Eye test...lol

Again, I'm not against getting Carr per se (more concerned about asking price), but I'm against the notion that he is some "significant" upgrade when there is nothing that backs up that notion outside of a person's perception (because numbers and metrics doesn't back it up).

 

[DavidM]

I made mention of those numbers.

Carr as a Raider
217 TDs (avg. 24 per season - 4.4 TD Rate)
99 INTS (avg. 11 per season - 2.0 INT Rate)
248 YPG
64.6% completion percentage (aDOT since 2015 - 7.5)

Winston as a Buc
121 TDs (avg. 24 per season - 4.9 TD Rate)
88 INTS (avg. 17.6 per season - 3.5 INT Rate)
272 YPG
61.3% completion percentage (aDOT- 10.2)

Winston before Arians:
88 TDs (avg. 22 per season - 4.6 TD Rate)
58 INTs (avg. 14.5 per season - 3.0 INT Rate)
261 YPG
61.6% completion percentage (aDOT - 10.2)

What about any of those numbers make Carr significantly better than Winston? If we are being honest, nothing. And I know people like to say you can make stats look anyway you want, so I added yearly averages, rates, per games and completion percentage with aDOT. It's really all about perception. The same way that people said that Dalton moved the ball better against the Vikings than the week before against the Panthers, but in reality, we gained 19 first downs both weeks. Eye test...lol

Again, I'm not against getting Carr per se (more concerned about asking price), but I'm against the notion that he is some "significant" upgrade when there is nothing that backs up that notion outside of a person's perception (because numbers and metrics doesn't back it up).

You want to talk about productivity and then ignore an indicator of productivity.

The 2:1 TD to INT ratio is a sort of benchmark that directly addresses what you're saying you want to consider. Arguably the two most important qualities you want in a QB are to score points and minimize turnovers. Measuring that as a ratio indicates how a QB is doing on the balance.

Elite talents like Mahomes, Burrow, and Herbert are sitting at almost 4:1 (Mahomes) and 3:1 for the other two. Rodgers is over 4:1. Tom Brady is over 3:1. Brees was comfortably over 2:1. Josh Allen is sitting above 2:1 as is Carr. Winston is nowhere close. And that's not a surprise because for all of his ability, the knock on him has been how careless he can be with the football. If you were to adjust his numbers to match even Carr's rate, he's 71 TDs off the pace given how many interceptions he's thrown. That's significant even if you decide to ignore it.

On another measure, Carr has had four seasons with a completion percentage of 67.3 or higher (Best: 70.4). Winston's best season was 64.6 and it was the only season he was above 64.

And you're making allowances for Winston - as a Buc and before Arians - that you aren't making for Carr. Both have played enough football at this point that the trendlines are well enough established. Carr has played under 6 different head coaches with the Raiders but has been more so a model of consistency at a higher level compared to Winston.

I like Winston and was enthusiastic about him as a project for Payton. I thought if anybody could get him to play closer to his ceiling, this was an ideal scenario. That's over and now Winston is coming off two seasons that have been shortened by injuries. I'm still pulling for him but his future is a lot more uncertain at this point and that's a real shame.

I think (and I can't really justify this belief) that Winston has the higher ceiling of the two. However, I have a greater confidence that Carr can play closer to his ceiling and reliably better than Winston, based on what both have shown to this point, and especially now that Payton isn't a part of the equation.

 

[jahsoul357]

You want to talk about productivity and then ignore an indicator of productivity.

The 2:1 TD to INT ratio is a sort of benchmark that directly addresses what you're saying you want to consider. Arguably the two most important qualities you want in a QB are to score points and minimize turnovers. Measuring that as a ratio indicates how a QB is doing on the balance.

Even with a 2:1 TD to INT ratio, the Bucs still put up more yards and points than the Oakland Raiders in 2017-2019 (2 of the 4 seasons Carr completed over 67% of his passes) and in 2019 put up more points and yards than the Chiefs, with an elite talent. The indicator of productivity is how many points your team puts up. Andy Dalton had a 2:1 TD to INT ratio this season and we still finished #22 in points.

Elite talents like Mahomes, Burrow, and Herbert are sitting at almost 4:1 (Mahomes) and 3:1 for the other two. Rodgers is over 4:1. Tom Brady is over 3:1. Brees was comfortably over 2:1. Josh Allen is sitting above 2:1 as is Carr. Winston is nowhere close. And that's not a surprise because for all of his ability, the knock on him has been how careless he can be with the football. If you were to adjust his numbers to match even Carr's rate, he's 71 TDs off the pace given how many interceptions he's thrown. That's significant even if you decide to ignore it.

If we are being completely honest, everyone that you just named is basically a dink and dunk QB and it is what it is. That's not a knock against them but Mahomes is near the bottom of the list of tight window, intended air yards per pass and completed air yards but leads the league in 20+ yard plays; that's called scheming brother.

Here is the thing about Drew; he didn't hit 2:1 until the end of 2013.

On another measure, Carr has had four seasons with a completion percentage of 67.3 or higher (Best: 70.4). Winston's best season was 64.6 and it was the only season he was above 64.

And you don't think the aDOT has anything to do with that? With that 70.4%, Carr was also #30 in IAY/PA.
And again, that's not a knock but there is a reason why completion percentages and passing ratings went through the roof. Most quarterbacks are dinking and dunking.

And you're making allowances for Winston - as a Buc and before Arians - that you aren't making for Carr. Both have played enough football at this point that the trendlines are well enough established. Carr has played under 6 different head coaches with the Raiders but has been more so a model of consistency at a higher level compared to Winston.

I'm not making any allowances for Winston, but I put that to show that 2019 is where people start and stop their analysis of Jameis. In the point above, you just said 64.6% was the best completion percentage of his career but what's is ignored is he got better in every area from 2015-2018. In 2018, he threw a crap ton of interceptions coming back from suspension, which got him benched until Fitzpatrick started to stink it up. This is how he finished that season.



And this is how I know the narrative of him needing be fix and CSP fixing him was overblown. What do we see?
258 YPG (2021 - 167 YPG)
64.3% completion - 10.9 IAY/PA (2021 - 59% completion - 8.3 IAY/PA)
3:1 TD:INT ratio (2021 - 4:1 TD:INT ratio)
100.1 passer rating (2021 - 102 passer rating)

And this was with Todd Monken calling plays.

I like Winston and was enthusiastic about him as a project for Payton. I thought if anybody could get him to play closer to his ceiling, this was an ideal scenario. That's over and now Winston is coming off two seasons that have been shortened by injuries. I'm still pulling for him but his future is a lot more uncertain at this point and that's a real shame.

I think (and I can't really justify this belief) that Winston has the higher ceiling of the two. However, I have a greater confidence that Carr can play closer to his ceiling and reliably better than Winston, based on what both have shown to this point, and especially now that Payton isn't a part of the equation.

For the most part, this we can agree on. I believe that both, in the right scheme, can produce.


Didn't mean to break it like this but you made a lot of points in your post

 

[Rexman100]

To be brutally honest, my gut feeling prior to this season was that JW would be injured by game four and AD would Qb the rest of the way. He's a big play QB no doubt. But he gets laser focused looking down the field which leads to devastating sacks. Go back to his college play he was exactly the same. Holding onto the ball too long and taking off to scramble too late where issues I was hoping SP was planning to fix. He's got some great aspects too. Relatively young, huge arm, fairly mobile, courageous in the pocket and a natural team leader. He tends to put the team on his shoulders before he has to as well.

Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr has missed only three games in nine years, all because of injury.