Research on "elite" Teams and pretenders (1 Viewer)

Jetsfan115

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Hi All,

I did this for my jets board but figured you guys might like this info.

Ok guys,

i decided to look at all the teams with 3 wins or better, I checked out there SOS and there SOV (strength of schedule and strength of victory) This tells us who has had the toughest road and who has beat the better teams.

Based on SOV the top 5 teams are (in order)

1) NE
2) Den
3) Cincy
4) ATL
5) NO

the teams that are the most overrated (easiest SOV) i order are

1) Dal
2) Phi
3) Balt
4) Pitt
4) NYG


Now the teams with the easiest schedules so far are

1) NYG
2) Minn
3) Phi
4) Indy
5) Balt

Here are the top 5 teams that got there record by beating easy teams but losing to hard teams (note this eliminates undefeated teams from this catagory) forumla used was SOS-SOV

1) Dal
2) Phi
3) SF
4) Pitt
5) Balt


So after looking at these numbers I think that Pitt, Balt, NYG, Phi, Dal, SF, and Indy are all badly overrated due to alot of bad teams in teh NFL this year. way more then usual. your thoughts?
 
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Jetsfan115

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FYI the reason there are 3 3win teams in the NFC east? here are the combined records of the teams they beta to get those records

8 wins 47 losses (.145)
 

Galbreath34

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At this early point in the season, for SOV you'd definitely want to factor out the win by the team in question.
 
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Jetsfan115

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At this early point in the season, for SOV you'd definitely want to factor out the win by the team in question.

see i'm highly against that due to the fact that they lost. why take away a loss because it was the team in question? i understand that the undefeated teams whill show an easier SOS becuase they beat all teh teams play played, but when you look at the numbers its so bad its irrelevant
 

Flipx99

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I don't know about Indy being "overrated," P. Manning looks to be in great form this year.
 
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Jetsfan115

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here are the SOV numbers (listed worst to best)
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 192pt;" width="256" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><col style="width: 48pt;" width="64" span="4"> <tbody><tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt; width: 48pt;" width="64" height="20">
</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64">SOV</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64">
</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Teams</td> <td>Win</td> <td>Loss</td> <td>%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Dal</td> <td align="right">1</td> <td align="right">15</td> <td class="xl63" align="right">0.063</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Phi</td> <td align="right">1</td> <td align="right">13</td> <td class="xl63" align="right">0.071</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Balt</td> <td align="right">3</td> <td align="right">11</td> <td class="xl63" align="right">0.214</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Pitt</td> <td align="right">3</td> <td align="right">11</td> <td class="xl63" align="right">0.214</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">NYG</td> <td align="right">6</td> <td align="right">19</td> <td class="xl63" align="right">0.240</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">SF</td> <td align="right">4</td> <td align="right">10</td> <td class="xl63" align="right">0.286</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Minn</td> <td align="right">7</td> <td align="right">17</td> <td class="xl63" align="right">0.292</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">NYJ</td> <td align="right">5</td> <td align="right">10</td> <td class="xl63" align="right">0.333</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Indy</td> <td align="right">8</td> <td align="right">16</td> <td class="xl63" align="right">0.333</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Chi</td> <td align="right">6</td> <td align="right">9</td> <td class="xl63" align="right">0.400</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">NO</td> <td align="right">8</td> <td align="right">11</td> <td class="xl63" align="right">0.421</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">ATL</td> <td align="right">6</td> <td align="right">8</td> <td class="xl63" align="right">0.429</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Cincy</td> <td align="right">9</td> <td align="right">10</td> <td class="xl63" align="right">0.474</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Den</td> <td align="right">12</td> <td align="right">13</td> <td class="xl63" align="right">0.480</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">NE</td> <td align="right">7</td> <td align="right">7</td> <td class="xl63" align="right">0.500</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
 
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Jetsfan115

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I don't know about Indy being "overrated," P. Manning looks to be in great form this year.

manning is manning. he is always going to be a top player in teh NFL. but they have no run game and a very poor defense. there 5-0 becuase there not playing good teams. I'm basing the "overrated" on the fact that everyone lists the 5-0 teams as the bets teams in the NFL but is a 5-0 team that played teams with a SOS of .200 better then a 4-1 team with a SOS of .600?

thats my point
 

Galbreath34

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see i'm highly against that due to the fact that they lost. why take away a loss because it was the team in question? i understand that the undefeated teams whill show an easier SOS becuase they beat all teh teams play played, but when you look at the numbers its so bad its irrelevant
Because at this point in the season a 5-0 team is automatically giving up a large percentage of SOV points compared to a 4-1 or 3-2 team. It's not fully circular, but introduces a kind of circular element, which diminishes as the season goes on. I mean the best combined opponent record possible for a 1-0 team is 0-1, for a 2-0 team 2-2, (but a 1-0 team could have a combine opponent record of 3-1, without any added quality) etc. So it's diminishing a bit now, but still a factor.
 

Clark Kent

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This is why i don't give too much credit to statistics. You can manipulate it to say whatever you want. I dont feel at all that Indy is overrated.
 

Clark Kent

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manning is manning. he is always going to be a top player in teh NFL. but they have no run game and a very poor defense. there 5-0 becuase there not playing good teams. I'm basing the "overrated" on the fact that everyone lists the 5-0 teams as the bets teams in the NFL but is a 5-0 team that played teams with a SOS of .200 better then a 4-1 team with a SOS of .600?

thats my point
I wouldnt say they have no running game. They have two good backs with Addai and Brown. They are more of a passing team.

There defense is not poor either. How many passing TD's have they allowed all season? They got a D line that can get tons of pressure so i wouldnt say they have a poor defense by any means.
 

Bartyboy

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I think that at this point it is to early to tell just on SOV and SOS. Teams are still coming together. The Saints started off ready to go on Offense but the Defense is getting better. Yea it says something but its not the whole story. BAL looked unstoppable after 3 games.Now not so much. NE is looking up and down but who knows what we get at the end of the season. I think it will take a few more weeks before this is meaningful. Teams have bad games and good games. Thats why they play the whole season.
That being said. I think IND, Giants and Den have some weaknesses that can be exposed by a well coached team. Saints look solid on both sides. MIN looks solid.
 
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Jetsfan115

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the point was more towards dallas, philly, balt, pitt, and the giants

all 3 have beaten some really bad teams. especially dallas and philly even if u take out the games like you wanted its still

2 wins 22 losses
 

Saint Jeremy

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So after looking at these numbers I think that Pitt, Balt, NYG, Phi, Dal, SF, and Indy are all badly overrated due to alot of bad teams in teh NFL this year. way more then usual. your thoughts?

Sure, if all you look at is the past 5 games.

BTW, I don't see the Jets on any of these lists.
 

Saint Jeremy

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I'm just busting his chops.

I'm sure 2 weeks ago, the Jets were rated high based on their record this year. That's why using that limited a sample is useless.
 

SaintsFanInLA

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The reason I think that strength of victory and margin of victory are relevant in the NFL is that it can put to rest the : the you haven't played anyone argument.

For example, the Saints played the Lions, an easily inferior team, however the Margin of Victory was 20+ points. Now, take the Dallas victory over KC. It took Dallas an overtime game in order to beat a horrible team. Dallas should be very VERY worried/concerned about the direction of that Cowboy team.

You can't fault a team for beating whoever is on their schedule but the margin of victory against inferior teams can indicate how good a team actually is, even when they haven't played upper echelon quality teams.
 

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