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Need to know what others think about this:
With Colston doing as well as he has, and A.J. Hawk staying within striking distance (for the most part), what effect would Reggie getting hot for the rest of the year do to the voting?
Before you jump, here's my thinking:
Let's say you have about 40% thinking it's Colston so far...
And assume about 30% right now think it's A.J. Hawk.
Assume 5% are thinking Bush right now just from pure bias or whatever.
The other 25% split amongst the other candidates.
Then, let Bush get hot (and show up on several highlight reels). The Saints start to make a push, and the talk increases on how he has been an important weapon this season.
Colston & Hawk will more than likely continue to shine as they already have.
Then, you have a late surge of opinion that places more emphasis on Bush. If you weigh the season strictly based on game-by-game performance, I believe that Marques would probably deserve it (even if Bush has a late surge).
But we all know how the politics of things works. And if the Saints make the playoffs, and the Packers don't ... you might get a "sympathy" vote for A.J. Hawk if the three rookies are within 10 percentage points of each other... logic being that the Saints made the postseason, and at least let Green Bay rejoice for something.
For those who think this is out to lunch, there are some who still believe that Chris Paul won the NBA ROY because some voters gave him (and the city) a sympathy vote because of Katrina (BTW, I believe C.P. was well deserving of the award).
Maybe there are other opinions, but I kinda think that if Reggie's performance heats-up, it will draw more votes away from Colston than A.J. Hawk (...for the reasons cited above).
Other thoughts? :16:
With Colston doing as well as he has, and A.J. Hawk staying within striking distance (for the most part), what effect would Reggie getting hot for the rest of the year do to the voting?
Before you jump, here's my thinking:
Let's say you have about 40% thinking it's Colston so far...
And assume about 30% right now think it's A.J. Hawk.
Assume 5% are thinking Bush right now just from pure bias or whatever.
The other 25% split amongst the other candidates.
Then, let Bush get hot (and show up on several highlight reels). The Saints start to make a push, and the talk increases on how he has been an important weapon this season.
Colston & Hawk will more than likely continue to shine as they already have.
Then, you have a late surge of opinion that places more emphasis on Bush. If you weigh the season strictly based on game-by-game performance, I believe that Marques would probably deserve it (even if Bush has a late surge).
But we all know how the politics of things works. And if the Saints make the playoffs, and the Packers don't ... you might get a "sympathy" vote for A.J. Hawk if the three rookies are within 10 percentage points of each other... logic being that the Saints made the postseason, and at least let Green Bay rejoice for something.
For those who think this is out to lunch, there are some who still believe that Chris Paul won the NBA ROY because some voters gave him (and the city) a sympathy vote because of Katrina (BTW, I believe C.P. was well deserving of the award).
Maybe there are other opinions, but I kinda think that if Reggie's performance heats-up, it will draw more votes away from Colston than A.J. Hawk (...for the reasons cited above).
Other thoughts? :16:
