Russian Relations (1 Viewer)

Galbreath34

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I have no OP point, but a lot going on with Russia and the US over the last 6 months to a year and no real threads other than Trump connection/US election hacking in the last few years.

Thought it'd be worth having a thread to dump bits of news and discuss them.

US Marines seek presence in Norway amid Russian tensions - CNNPolitics.com

I find this one particularly interesting for what it says about Europe's that Norway might welcome this. Nothing indicates how large a deployment they're talking about, but I think it definitely should get Putin's attention more than the defensive missile shield.
 

DaveXA

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I don't understand why the US and Russia have to be hostile to one another. I know a lot the history behind it, but it just seems to me this doesn't have to be. Most of the Russians I meet here are pretty cool. I don't know how representative they are of Russia proper, but if their population is anything like the ones I've met, then we should be able to get along fine.

But...Putin isn't exactly winning friends and influencing people, so that doesn't help.
 
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Galbreath34

Galbreath34

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Honestly, I don't think I'm being remotely rah rah US in saying that it's been almost 100% instigated by Putin. I think he's really resented the global recognition that Russia economically and militarily had fallen down well below the US and China, and has really been pushing boundaries and buttons ever since. The last few years with the increasing return to childish and dangerous Cold War buzzings and and such have really escalated tensions, and frankly I'm amazed that his invasion of Ukraine didn't blossom into a lot more than it did. BTW, with China there's room to say the shoe is on the other foot and we're more prodding and provoking, but not with Russia.

I'm not really that confident that he knows where the line is, but I'm fairly confident that Obama and both of our candidates would actually go to war if he crossed it. It's a scary thought, because we aren't really in control of whether/when he crosses that line, and short of actually just starting a war there's not much we could do to deter him.

I really thought when Turkey shot down the MiG that he might screw up and bomb a NATO country, then it would have been pretty much all out, even though Turkey is the crazy uncle of NATO, no way they couldn't have responded to direct bombing of a NATO member all out.
 

615saint

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I think he's really resented the global recognition that Russia economically and militarily had fallen down well below the US and China, and has really been pushing boundaries and buttons ever since.
I haven't thought much about this previously, but, when it's stated this way, I can almost hear Putin say "Make Russia Great Again."
 
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Galbreath34

Galbreath34

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You know, not exactly that phrase, but that's a lot of what he promotes himself as doing. In the last few years internally though he's done some super scary back to Soviet and beyond things. Making it legal to kill any protestor in the street solely on his order is probably the most chilling new law in the last year or so.

https://themoscowtimes.com/articles...t-crowds-to-prevent-terrorism-acts-duma-51307

Russia's lower house of parliament has approved a bill letting Federal Security Service (FSB) officers shoot at crowds, as well as at women and children under certain conditions, the Slon.Ru news portal reported Tuesday.


The State Duma passed the bill in the second, third and final reading at once. The bill changes the Federal Security service law, in order to give its officers more powers in using their weapons.
Doesn't hurt to have your own personal army within the army either.

https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress....-it-say-when-you-need-your-own-personal-army/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Guard_of_Russia

On 5 April 2016, President Putin created the National Guard of Russia by a Presidential Decree (Executive Order) - a legal act having the status of a by-law.<sup id="cite_ref-creation_16-0" class="reference">[16]</sup>
On 6 April 2016, President Putin submitted to the State Duma (the lower house of parliament of the Federal Assembly) the draft framework law for this new executive body titled "On the Russian National Guard Troops" along with its corresponding amendments<sup id="cite_ref-duma_17-0" class="reference">[17]</sup> that contains a provision for the protection of pregnant women, children, disabled persons and crowds that states:
It shall be prohibited to use firearms against women with the visible signs of pregnancy, people with the apparent signs of disability and underage persons, except for the cases when such persons put up armed resistance, make an assault involving a group of attackers or commit another attack threatening the life and health of citizens or a National Guard serviceman, and it shall also be prohibited to use firearms at largely crowded places, if their use may casually hurt people.<sup id="cite_ref-TASS06Apr2016_18-0" class="reference">[18]</sup>
If they make an unarmed assault, like surging as a crowd or not leaving the area, then it's ok to shoot even the pregnant or disabled though.

Despite the draft provisions, Russian Duma's Committee on Defense made the recommendation to allow the National Guard to shoot into crowds.<sup id="cite_ref-MoscowTimes21Apr2016_57-0" class="reference">[57]</sup>
 

mt15

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Putin is almost certainly behind the rise of certain elements of the alt right in this country and is actively seeking to destroy America from within, doing with propaganda what the old USSR couldn't accomplish during the Cold War days. The "rigged" talk from Trump, and I saw where Pence is defending Trump's "rigged" election talk, is the most damaging element so far because it calls the entire legitimacy of the election into question.

I don't think the US should be naive about the attempted influence of Putin on this election. Wikileaks, Trump, various web sites of the alt right, and several current participants in our discussions here are being used by Putin, wittingly in some cases, unwittingly in others.
 

pmiceli

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When I saw the thread title I had high hopes for an interesting discussion instead of the constant Trump Hate Masturbation this board has become but I see even this thread is not immune.

Russia is a very interesting topic.

Both sides are very much at fault and the United States has failed miserably to check Putin's rise in geopolitics.

It started with the Russia relations "reset" which Putin correctly diagnosed as weakness and that has informed his actions ever since. Our response to the Ukraine was horrible. Paralysis is the best descriptor.

Power abhors a vacuum and the United States left a gaping hole that Putin has walked into.

Putin is playing a difficult game expertly. The Saudi oil price war is killing Russia. Tensions with Turkey removed a very large source of food imports into Russia. Yet Putin has managed to stir the populace into somewhat of a nationalist frenzy, spinning the tale of Russia against the world on their lonely path. The weak response of the US has allowed him to boast and present Russia as the powerful Russia of old. The decline in food imports has been spun into Russia providing fresher and better food for itself. He has made the Russian Orthodox Church a major player in Russian politics, a brilliant move that has expanded his popularity.

Russians instinctively reject the idea of socialism having lived through its horrors so Putin's "conservative" revolution hearkens back to a different, older Russia, in the process destroying the democratic political and market economy reforms gained after the fall of the Soviet Union. In place of those reforms, he is building an oligarchy. This oligarchy obtained it wealth and power through questionable means and the only path to preserving that wealth and power is to freeze Russia in a status quo between state socialism and a capitalist democracy.

The result is what Russia is right now.

It is incredibly easy to draw parallels here in the United States and Trump isn't it. Russia even has its own version of Trump and it isn't Vladimir Putin, its Vladimir Zhirinovsky.

Russia is our own fault and it really is a shame. Russia is the country most like the United States. Moscow reminds me more of Chicago than Europe. The people work very hard and are masters of improvisation and entrepreneurship. The problem is an overbearing government bureaucracy that actively seeks to crush anyone achieving success who is not in the "approved" group.

The United States and Russia are creating this tension between them for their own internal purposes. Putin to distract from the bad economy in Russia and the US is doing it to influence its own election and preserve its own power structure status quo.
 

CountWhoDat

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The Saudi oil price war is killing Russia
This and the sanctions leveled against Russia after the Ukraine incursion are the two ways the US has waged war against Russia, and they've each been pretty effective. Putin is in fact a saavy leader and has figured out how to leverage it into an advantage, but that's not indefinite. Russia is a petro-state first and foremost and if oil continues to flop around around $50/barrel they will continue to bleed.

A lot of highly-leveraged US companies have died and people have lost jobs in this waiting for Saudi to blink, but the big companies and the US as a whole can wait this out pretty much indefinitely; Saudi and Russia cannot. Saudi approved a bond issue a few days ago that's over $15 billion. This is surely a sign of desperation. Let them bleed, I say.

Saudi Arabia to Sell Record $17.5 Billion of Sovereign Bonds - Bloomberg
 

superchuck500

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Honestly, I don't think I'm being remotely rah rah US in saying that it's been almost 100% instigated by Putin. I think he's really resented the global recognition that Russia economically and militarily had fallen down well below the US and China, and has really been pushing boundaries and buttons ever since. The last few years with the increasing return to childish and dangerous Cold War buzzings and and such have really escalated tensions, and frankly I'm amazed that his invasion of Ukraine didn't blossom into a lot more than it did. BTW, with China there's room to say the shoe is on the other foot and we're more prodding and provoking, but not with Russia.

I'm not really that confident that he knows where the line is, but I'm fairly confident that Obama and both of our candidates would actually go to war if he crossed it. It's a scary thought, because we aren't really in control of whether/when he crosses that line, and short of actually just starting a war there's not much we could do to deter him.

I really thought when Turkey shot down the MiG that he might screw up and bomb a NATO country, then it would have been pretty much all out, even though Turkey is the crazy uncle of NATO, no way they couldn't have responded to direct bombing of a NATO member all out.

I think the view in the foreign policy community and Russia desk at the State Department is that Putin is motivated almost exclusively by internal concerns. More than anything, he wants to be adored by Russians and remain Russia's leader until he dies. To that end, he knows that many Russians resented Russia's fall from world prominence after the collapse of the USSR - and most of these maneuvers he pulls are aimed at stoking Russian nationalism rather than any external objective. The Russians are also traditionally insecure about what they perceive to be a sphere of influence in far Eastern Europe and its southern flanks. At times what we appear to be aggressive is entirely defensive in the Russian concept. And to be fair, not all of their insecurity is mere psyche.

These two behaviors tend to play together to create this running soft confrontation we have with them.

And, of course, their economy is substantially dependent on the oil market so there's a fairly strong interest there as well, but they don't seem to push it outside of controlling their demand side.
 
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Galbreath34

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I absolutely agree his pushing and provocation is designed to shore up weakness internally and get his 'anti-terrorist' laws that create the guard and such through the Duma.
 

superchuck500

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I absolutely agree his pushing and provocation is designed to shore up weakness internally and get his 'anti-terrorist' laws that create the guard and such through the Duma.
Yeah, there's that angle too. Keeping the Russian populace on edge about threats makes it easier to keep his authority unquestioned.
 

pmiceli

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This and the sanctions leveled against Russia after the Ukraine incursion are the two ways the US has waged war against Russia, and they've each been pretty effective. Putin is in fact a saavy leader and has figured out how to leverage it into an advantage, but that's not indefinite. Russia is a petro-state first and foremost and if oil continues to flop around around $50/barrel they will continue to bleed.

A lot of highly-leveraged US companies have died and people have lost jobs in this waiting for Saudi to blink, but the big companies and the US as a whole can wait this out pretty much indefinitely; Saudi and Russia cannot. Saudi approved a bond issue a few days ago that's over $15 billion. This is surely a sign of desperation. Let them bleed, I say.

Saudi Arabia to Sell Record $17.5 Billion of Sovereign Bonds - Bloomberg
I also think Saudi has really screwed the pooch on this one. They have very effectively gotten the weak players out of the US energy sector and positioned the US to take over as the major player in oil.

I don't much like the US using Russia as a scapegoat to influence domestic politics and elections.

We missed a golden opportunity for a long lasting alliance with Russia and the combination of ineptness at State and intentional positioning of Russia as our adversary will cause long term problems.

I don't think it will result in war, as the election is just a few weeks away and all the "Russia is teh Devil!" will stop November 9 but a lot of damage has been done.
 
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Galbreath34

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In what way do you see "Russia is teh Devil" or American instigation in any of this? All of the reset was intended to be better allies and sanctions and hostility came from provocations from Russia. The US didn't put troops into the Ukraine or fund conflict in Georgia. Where do you see American aggression or initiation in this?
 

Dre

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Most of the Russians I meet here are pretty cool. I don't know how representative they are of Russia proper, but if their population is anything like the ones I've met, then we should be able to get along fine.
That's because they're spies
 

JimEverett

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I don't think the U.S. should support or should have supported the expansion of NATO (or the EU) into territories that historically have long been under the Russian sphere of influence. It's antagonistic and does little for us strategically.
 
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Galbreath34

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Most of the Russians I meet here are pretty cool.
Meant to respond. Yeah, most you've met are Russians who enjoyed emigrating. It also may have some to do with social class as well. Russia is less than half as big as the US, but it's a big country. Most of the guys I've worked with from the area are fantastic too. Governments are always a bit worse than their people.

That said though, I've definitely met acquaintances of Russian co-workers that, yeah, not so much. Guys doing discount auto repairs for compatriots off the clock that you can be pretty sure aren't thrilled about this whole America thing, and probably making more than a little extra-curricular funds to take home.

Just like we have BLM and militias getting ready to fight when Clinton wins they've got a huge range of people that fight with each other about what Russia should be. The thing is you've got a strong leader of a not quite majority that's running the show and that has been unable to win an open election for over a decade, so the politics of the government don't necessarily represent the best of what the country has to offer.
 

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