Saints 2020 and 2021 (edit) Possible Player Crisis (edit) (What Front Offices Don't Often Tell their Fans). This is an End User Modeler (I hope) (1 Viewer)

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Super44 said:
As you obviously are aware, it is all lumped together. It is just the fact, that we ALL know (sooner, rather than later), it is going to be an issue. You cannot separate the Brees salary cap issue from the rest. It is all part of the recipe that has to be adjusted. The Saints cannot go to the league and say; “hey look, we have this GOAT. His cost to us is so prohibitive and we have been borrowing money (so to speak), and now we have to pay up. Can you (NFL) please seperate his money from our overall salary cap, so we can have a salary cap advantage? Thanks, Loomis and co.” ? IT WILL BE A PROBLEM.
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I'm probably not making enough sense. What I mean is that his dead cap is a problem of some sort in any circumstance, regardless of keeping, or nonsensically trading away younger players as the OP keeps trying to suggest is inevitable.

The variable in Brees' case is only when his dead cap hits and how it is spread out. If I know I have to pay £20m in some way over the next three years, I take that out of my budget and plan cashflow for
all my other costs accordingly. This is how I see it as 'separate'
 
TribuneUK said:
I'm probably not making enough sense. What I mean is that his dead cap is a problem of some sort in any circumstance, regardless of keeping, or nonsensically trading away younger players as the OP keeps trying to suggest is inevitable.

The variable in Brees' case is only when his dead cap hits and how it is spread out. If I know I have to pay £20m in some way over the next three years, I take that out of my budget and plan cashflow for
all my other costs accordingly. This is how I see it as 'separate'
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Uk - the numbers looked scary bad. But as BayArea and LC have pointed out, Loomis can do some cap magic to likely keep this team as a SB caliber team, if Brees returns to normal level for one more year.

But we are not in a monopoly money game. There's price to pay for these amazing drafts 2016-2018 drafts. We are 28th in available cap and this does not include one penny for any Saints QB. To make these last 3-year SB runs, Loomis redid numerous contracts of good players taking a low cap hit early while pushing higher cap hits near the end.

Eventually, and on paper, the numbers say it begins this year and if Loomis manipulates these numbers further in exchange for higher dead cap down the road, I wanted to get a conversation going to better understand the numbers and our options. It has been explained in numbers by a number of knowledgeable people in this thread. But no one has addressed in numbers how this will negative impact us in the future, which it will. And I'm guessing from the feedback of the numbers people on the board and re-examining the numbers, Loomis has several options for delaying this hit if that's the goal, options that none of us exactly know until they happen. But our continuously pushing our 2nd and 3rd contract stars dead cap money into the future makes them considerably less attractive for a trade to other teams

Edit: And thanks very much to the Who Dats who walked me off the ledge. I've done enough data analysis to be dangerous, but not much more - lol. The raw numbers to someone like me who doesn't understand contracts is really scary. And it lets me know there will be a payday, sooner or later, but Loomis can avoid it this year.

One of the main ways to deal with this is to trade some of these 2020 and 2021 1st contract young stars. I think this will likely be a change in Saints strategy over the next few years. What I did learn from some of the elite cap numbers folks on the board is that Loomis can handle the cap to field a similar team to last year if Brees comes back, maybe possibly next year which is very doubtful and that there will be a day of reckoning which will be less impacting if we trade players for draft picks, not our preferred style under SP and Loomis.

At worst, my goal on this thread was to learn how FOs manipulate these numbers, how great teams keep elite squads together beyond 2-3 years, for all Who Dats interested to get some idea of the magic which Loomis actually does yearly and if there is any link that could be possibly to tied to how badly we want, or don't want Burrow. I agree with one of the other posters that these numbers really don't show any reason why the Saints would sell the ship to get Burrow. Except for these star young 1st contract players and maybe a couple of youngish 2nd contract players, the Saints simply are not stocked with attractive options for Cincy or another top team who might have a chance of acquiring Burrow and then being part of a multi-team trade. And one thing I see now is why a guy as knowledgeable about pro ball as Guillermo has been so strong on us not getting Burrow. Unless there's hidden lepricons in Loomis office, we can't get Burrow without gutting the franchise over the next 2-3 (?) years.

To me, the board is not so much about being right or a guru, but learning about NFL things I don't understand from others who do, beyond just our Homer colored glasses.
 
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FootballLady said:
What do you mean when you say the FO doesn't want you to know these things? How is it they planned to keep this very public information private?
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'

Well, I for one, can fully understand why the FO doesn't want *Swimmer* to get any info at all from them!

lol

.


.

Just teasing ya, Swimmer! : - )
 
VPCajun said:
'

Well, I for one, can fully understand why the FO doesn't want *Swimmer* to get any info at all from them!

lol

.


.

Just teasing ya, Swimmer! : - )
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Lmao!! Whassup VPCajun!

I've learned so much about cap management and player contracts from the knowledgeable posters on this thread. I hope others did too. Like many Who Dats on the board, I don't natively trust Big Business with the truth to us customers - lol. I knew in my gut there would be a payday for the amazing drafts of 2016 through 2018. Until this thread, I had no idea what that would be. I think we can all see many of the options that Loomis has at his disposal thanks so much to BayArea and LC and a few others.

Since I don't trust Big Business, I am drawn to try and figure out what is really going on and what are the real multi-years plans of the FO/Business- rebuild or squeeze one more year, maybe but not likely 2, at the expense of the future? I want Burrow, but it's clear that unless we can trade off some of our 1st contract stars to some team who sees value in them and then jump up to Cincy, we would have to do a total rebuild for years with few top draft picks if we go after Burrow. We also know, regardless of getting Burrow or not, the Saints have a day of reckoning from pushing the majority of dead cap forward on many 2nd and 3rd star player contracts. And that we have 17 of 22 of the 2019 startes who are and will be FAs in 2020 and 2021. We absolutely cannot afford them all. I really am curious about who the Saints want to keep and who they will let walk or trade. But we will all see in time.
 
Swimmer said:
Lmao!! Whassup VPCajun!

I've learned so much about cap management and player contracts from the knowledgeable posters on this thread. I hope others did too. Like many Who Dats on the board, I don't natively trust Big Business with the truth to us customers - lol. I knew in my gut there would be a payday for the amazing drafts of 2016 through 2018. Until this thread, I had no idea what that would be. I think we can all see many of the options that Loomis has at his disposal thanks so much to BayArea and LC and a few others.

Since I don't trust Big Business, I am drawn to try and figure out what is really going on and what are the real multi-years plans of the FO/Business- rebuild or squeeze one more year, maybe but not likely 2, at the expense of the future? I want Burrow, but it's clear that unless we can trade off some of our 1st contract stars to some team who sees value in them and then jump up to Cincy, we would have to do a total rebuild for years with few top draft picks if we go after Burrow. We also know, regardless of getting Burrow or not, the Saints have a day of reckoning from pushing the majority of dead cap forward on many 2nd and 3rd star player contracts. And that we have 17 of 22 of the 2019 startes who are and will be FAs in 2020 and 2021. We absolutely cannot afford them all. I really am curious about who the Saints want to keep and who they will let walk or trade. But we will all see in time.
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Well, if Loomis turns in his resignation...


RUN!
 
limeyjohn said:
Hang on a second.........l thought we were trading all of the above players for the #1 pick anyways ?
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That's what Coach says he got from insider info, "SP told Loomis to get Burrow at near any cost."

One of the points of this thread is "What any cost" would really mean for the Saints? Pete also said we were ready for a rebuild if we get Burrow.

Unless there's some hidden data, there appears to be 2 options to get Burrow, none that negates Pete's statement about SP being ready to rebuild.

1) Best Case Scenario: Saints find a team in the top 4 who want to win now and highly value some of our 1st contract young star players and are willing to give us their #1 and maybe a few other picks for these young stars who we will absolutely lose a good deal of over the next 2 years. This way, we don't have to give all our 1s, 2s and 3s for 2 years or more
2) Less Attractive Scenario: Saints trade a boatload of current and future draft picks to Cincy to get Burrow, mandating a major rebuild after this year. Besides getting Burrow, which I am LSU Homered towards heavily, this does leave the possibility of 1 more year SB run with Brees and most of our current roster if Loomnis restructures and pushes more dead money into the future.
 
Madmarsha said:
Yeah. Unless somebody's got Cliff's notes.
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Hey - Cliff Notes got me through college - lol. But I hear you. Post #87 above will give you the basic cliff notes. Marsha, this thread was intended as a teamwork and collaborative project. Stay Warm. It's cold in Austin!
 
Swimmer said:
Hey - Cliff Notes got me through college - lol. But I hear you. Post #87 above will give you the basic cliff notes. Marsha, this thread was intended as a teamwork and collaborative project. Stay Warm. It's cold in Austin!
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Yeah, I wish I could join in except for my lame comments. I WANT to digest all of that but sometimes I get SS-ADD.
 

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