Saints 2020 and 2021 (edit) Possible Player Crisis (edit) (What Front Offices Don't Often Tell their Fans). This is an End User Modeler (I hope) (2 Viewers)

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Swimmer said:
At worst, my goal on this thread was to learn how FOs manipulate these numbers, how great teams keep elite squads together beyond 2-3 years, for all Who Dats interested to get some idea of the magic which Loomis actually does yearly and if there is any link that could be possibly to tied to how badly we want, or don't want Burrow. I agree with one of the other posters that these numbers really don't show any reason why the Saints would sell the ship to get Burrow. Except for these star young 1st contract players and maybe a couple of youngish 2nd contract players, the Saints simply are not stocked with attractive options for Cincy or another top team who might have a chance of acquiring Burrow and then being part of a multi-team trade. And one thing I see now is why a guy as knowledgeable about pro ball as Guillermo has been so strong on us not getting Burrow. Unless there's hidden lepricons in Loomis office, we can't get Burrow without gutting the franchise over the next 2-3 (?) years.
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Swimmer, as I wrote in the other thread, in order to see if one trade is possible, we have to consider both sides.

For many here,the position of the saints is clear. They see a young prospect, who has shined in some-kind-of-Payton-system, and for that reason, the saints should go and grab him.

I don't want to get again with Pete's position. I think he received speculation more than information. I can totally agree that Sean Payton loves Joe Burrow, but I also think that he loves the players he has in-house, so I don't see the point of risking the roster on going for a young prospect. I totally disagree that they are considering rebuilding, even when we are going to lose some players. They know we are close, and want to keep competitive.

Sean didn't sign a 5 year extension to start once again from scratch.

Now let's see the bengals side: they are hitting the lottery with that pick. Not only they get a good prospect, to be coached by a young quarterback guru. They are getting a local kid. A kid with strong roots to the area. A guy who used his Heisman speech to talk of the burdens of the kids growing up in Ohio. I mean, this is movie-script kind of deal. Burrow gives the bengals a chance to redeem themselves by bringing a local hero home. It is like if the saints had the chance to draft Payton Manning. Yes, that kind of deal.

And finally there is Miami. The owner really wants a franchise quarterback, and was willing to accept the destruction of the team in order to get one.

What they have to offer?

- 3 first round picks for 2020 (each one will sign a 5 year deal)
- 2 second round picks for 2020 (each one will sign a 4 year deal)
-2 first round picks for 2021 (each one will sign a 5 year deal)
- 2 second round picks for 2021 (each one will sign a 5 year deal)

That is a lot of picks and contract years to offer.

What can the saints offer?
- For 2020, the 24th pick in the draft (Miami has # 6, #18 and #26)
- The saints don't have a second round pick.
- They can trade players, but not of them will give the bengals the flexibility of a 4-5 year deals the picks Miami can provide.

We should consider also that Cincinnati is not an attractive market for free agents. If they trade for players with existing contracts, they risk the chance of losing them in a couple of years in free agency. At the end, you can only franchise one player at a time.

So, in conclusion, I think Burrow represents more then just a talented player for the bengals, he will bring hope, and tickets to them. Most of the serious insiders think that the bengals won't trade that pick and will get Burrow.

In case that there will be someone able to offer the farm for the pick, I think it will be Miami. And even with that capital, I think the bengals will keep the pick.

And Sean Payton? I have no doubt he loves Joe Burrow, but we know quiet well he loves Teddy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill. But most of all, we all know that with Drew Brees he has a special relation.

I don't think Sean Payton would risk that relation. I think Drew will be involved in his succession plan. At least, he will be informed before anyone. And I also think Sean will give Drew any time he wants to make a decision about returning.

For those many reasons, I don't think there is any possibility of Joe Burrow playing for the saints in 2020.
 
guillermo said:
Swimmer, as I wrote in the other thread, in order to see if one trade is possible, we have to consider both sides.

For many here,the position of the saints is clear. They see a young prospect, who has shined in some-kind-of-Payton-system, and for that reason, the saints should go and grab him.

I don't want to get again with Pete's position. I think he received speculation more than information. I can totally agree that Sean Payton loves Joe Burrow, but I also think that he loves the players he has in-house, so I don't see the point of risking the roster on going for a young prospect. I totally disagree that they are considering rebuilding, even when we are going to lose some players. They know we are close, and want to keep competitive.

Sean didn't sign a 5 year extension to start once again from scratch.

Now let's see the bengals side: they are hitting the lottery with that pick. Not only they get a good prospect, to be coached by a young quarterback guru. They are getting a local kid. A kid with strong roots to the area. A guy who used his Heisman speech to talk of the burdens of the kids growing up in Ohio. I mean, this is movie-script kind of deal. Burrow gives the bengals a chance to redeem themselves by bringing a local hero home. It is like if the saints had the chance to draft Payton Manning. Yes, that kind of deal.

And finally there is Miami. The owner really wants a franchise quarterback, and was willing to accept the destruction of the team in order to get one.

What they have to offer?

- 3 first round picks for 2020 (each one will sign a 5 year deal)
- 2 second round picks for 2020 (each one will sign a 4 year deal)
-2 first round picks for 2021 (each one will sign a 5 year deal)
- 2 second round picks for 2021 (each one will sign a 5 year deal)

That is a lot of picks and contract years to offer.

What can the saints offer?
- For 2020, the 24th pick in the draft (Miami has # 6, #18 and #26)
- The saints don't have a second round pick.
- They can trade players, but not of them will give the bengals the flexibility of a 4-5 year deals the picks Miami can provide.

We should consider also that Cincinnati is not an attractive market for free agents. If they trade for players with existing contracts, they risk the chance of losing them in a couple of years in free agency. At the end, you can only franchise one player at a time.

So, in conclusion, I think Burrow represents more then just a talented player for the bengals, he will bring hope, and tickets to them. Most of the serious insiders think that the bengals won't trade that pick and will get Burrow.

In case that there will be someone able to offer the farm for the pick, I think it will be Miami. And even with that capital, I think the bengals will keep the pick.

And Sean Payton? I have no doubt he loves Joe Burrow, but we know quiet well he loves Teddy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill. But most of all, we all know that with Drew Brees he has a special relation.

I don't think Sean Payton would risk that relation. I think Drew will be involved in his succession plan. At least, he will be informed before anyone. And I also think Sean will give Drew any time he wants to make a decision about returning.

For those many reasons, I don't think there is any possibility of Joe Burrow playing for the saints in 2020.
Click to expand...

guillermo - you make some excellent well thought through posts. And even though I've wanted Burrow, aside Pete's enthusiasm, after the initial excitement wore off, my gut told me it was not very probable. That didn't keep from dreaming. After doing this joint cap exercise with real data, it seems even more remote. And the Cincy side is once again very astute of you and well grounded.

But the point about SP wanting to keep this team together, which he can do this year with a lot of Loomis pushing Cap money into the future for which their will be a payday, the numbers show it near impossible to keep this team together beyond this year. We have $12 million in cap. We have no QB under contract. BayCity and LC did excellent analysis about how keep this team one more year by losing a few players we fans don't think the team needs and much Loomis work.

But we have 17 out of 22 starters from 2019, plus 8 to 9 key rotational players becoming FAs this year and next. If we sign Brees and Teddy, we will be over the cap this year by $20 mil or so and that includes pushing his entire year $21 mil cap hit out into the future. Let's say,, the Saints push more cap into the future from the QB signings. We are still over the cap. And the cap next year is worse than this year.

How in the world does Loomis keep this team together beyond one year without facing a massive rebuild when we have over 25 starters and critical rotational players as FAs between this year and next? Thx much
 
Swimmer said:
guillermo - you make some excellent well thought through posts. And even though I've wanted Burrow, aside Pete's enthusiasm, after the initial excitement wore off, my gut told me it was not very probable. That didn't keep from dreaming. After doing this joint cap exercise with real data, it seems even more remote. And the Cincy side is once again very astute of you and well grounded.

But the point about SP wanting to keep this team together, which he can do this year with a lot of Loomis pushing Cap money into the future for which their will be a payday, the numbers show it near impossible to keep this team together beyond this year. We have $12 million in cap. We have no QB under contract. BayCity and LC did excellent analysis about how keep this team one more year by losing a few players we fans don't think the team needs and much Loomis work.

But we have 17 out of 22 starters from 2019, plus 8 to 9 key rotational players becoming FAs this year and next. If we sign Brees and Teddy, we will be over the cap this year by $20 mil or so and that includes pushing his entire year $21 mil cap hit out into the future. Let's say,, the Saints push more cap into the future from the QB signings. We are still over the cap. And the cap next year is worse than this year.

How in the world does Loomis keep this team together beyond one year without facing a massive rebuild when we have over 25 starters and critical rotational players as FAs between this year and next? Thx much
Click to expand...

You keep going on with this even though people are showing you it's not that bad. I've already looked at this before but I guess I'll be another to try to get you away from this narrative. Here is an example of a reasonable 2020 offseason. This is almost exactly the same roster we have. The only major difference is cutting our old slot corners and LG. They aren't cap casualties either, we just have cheaper better replacements. We could resign them or some depth if we want.

2020.png

Now on to 2021:
- Assuming we let the 2020 cap roll over we will have almost 60m at the start (not accounting for a cap increase).
- We have some easy moves in 2021 (Armstead extension for example) to push that to 70 or 80 million cap space. That is a lot of cap space to play with.
- We will have two draft classes added to the roster.

The heavy hitters are:
- A QB
- Lattimore
- Ramczyk
- Kamara
- Rankins
- M Williams

Everything else will be pennies, those role player contracts hardly move the needle. With 70-80 mil to play with that is easily doable. We could sign all those guys to 15 mil per year contracts (which is overkill). The incoming draft classes and a years worth of playing time will drastically change things by 2021 also. We might lose a good player here or there but it will be more to do with player/position valuation and sticking to a number. Not cap casualties.

The scenario I'm laying out isn't even being drastic. We are basically staying status quo and leaving room to move. We could make plenty of other moves that others have talked about and push for even more room.
 
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Loose Cannon said:
Saints have about 10mm in cap space next year

They can save:
- 8mm by cutting Kiko Alonso
- 7mm by cutting Rankins
- 4mm for Patrick Robinson
- ~5mm for random role players (Edwards, Robertson)

I imagine all those guys are gone. That's 24 million. So we have 34mm in cap space.

If they re-sign Brees it kicks the can down the road on his dead money. So basically re-signing Brees is a break even. We can actually re-sign a few guys to longer-term deals and _lower_ their cap number next year. Warford, Janoris Jenkins, Demario Davis, Cook, Malcolm Brown are good candidates for that. They can probably find another $15-20mm here. Jenkins can also be cut and save even more, if they want to go that route.

All of those moves leave the Saints with around $60mm of cap space prior to free agency and the draft. None of our 2020 free agents save Vonn Bell are critical. Bell will eat maybe $10mm of that (assuming we sign him).

Take another $20mm to sign rookies and play a little bit in free agency. That leaves us with about $30 million. That's enough to restructure and extend Lattimore and Ram to long term deals at about $17-18mm each (because we still have one cheap year left on both of their contracts), which would make them the top paid CB and OT in football (that's what it's going to take).

Push Kamara's deal off until next year and see what shakes out.

And this is all before Loomis does cap magic that's well beyond my understanding. I'm sure there's another 10 million for the taking using accounting magic. He finds it every year.

They'll make it work. We're not going to land any splash free agents. It'll probably look a lot like the 2018 offseason where we brought in Okafor, P-Rob, Kurt Coleman, and the star of the class Demario Davis.

There will be a reckoning, you can't push the dead money off forever. But it doesn't have to be this offseason if Loomis doesn't want it to be.


gLBZM6.gif
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Cap space is measured in $, distance is measured in mm.
 
Super44 said:
Like the Patriots do. And they continuously find young talent through the draft and NOT by free agency. They always amass tons of draft picks. This is primarily why they have had long term success, aside from hitting on most of their draft picks.
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This is just made up. What do you mean by "hitting" on most of their draft picks? Also, they just came off a season where they signed the best cb in the league in free agency...
 
Also, I haven't seen much talk about the pending CBA negotiations that will likely have a huge impact on the salary cap. So all of this may end up being moot after the 2020 season.
 
Back in the day, Mickey was our "Capologist" and worked some real magic. He did a lot of his sleight of hand by restructuring contracts.

Mickey was demoted to mere GM, but I think he still puts his finger in the pie. Not even Mickey can save all our players, but I think we'll be surprised how few actually get away. It could be much worse, we could be the Rams.
 
Stalwart385 said:
You keep going on with this even though people are showing you it's not that bad. I've already looked at this before but I guess I'll be another to try to get you away from this narrative. Here is an example of a reasonable 2020 offseason. This is almost exactly the same roster we have. The only major difference is cutting our old slot corners and LG. They aren't cap casualties either, we just have cheaper better replacements. We could resign them or some depth if we want.

2020.png

Now on to 2021:
- Assuming we let the 2020 cap roll over we will have almost 60m at the start (not accounting for a cap increase).
- We have some easy moves in 2021 (Armstead extension for example) to push that to 70 or 80 million cap space. That is a lot of cap space to play with.
- We will have two draft classes added to the roster.

The heavy hitters are:
- A QB
- Lattimore
- Ramczyk
- Kamara
- Rankins
- M Williams

Everything else will be pennies, those role player contracts hardly move the needle. With 70-80 mil to play with that is easily doable. We could sign all those guys to 15 mil per year contracts (which is overkill). The incoming draft classes and a years worth of playing time will drastically change things by 2021 also. We might lose a good player here or there but it will be more to do with player/position valuation and sticking to a number. Not cap casualties.

The scenario I'm laying out isn't even being drastic. We are basically staying status quo and leaving room to move. We could make plenty of other moves that others have talked about and push for even more room.
Click to expand...

Fantastic piece of work. I didn't quite understand the cells where you had "Cut." Does that means cut them now or next year. If so, that's a lot of key players to cut by 2021, e.g Damario Davis (keep or cut?). Can you pls explain. If not too much trouble, who would be cut in 2020 and 2021 that are key players. Thanks so very much and an awesome piece of work. Thx again!
 
Swimmer said:
Fantastic piece of work. I didn't quite understand the cells where you had "Cut." Does that means cut them now or next year. If so, that's a lot of key players to cut by 2021, e.g Damario Davis (keep or cut?). Can you pls explain. If not too much trouble, who would be cut in 2020 and 2021 that are key players. Thanks so very much and an awesome piece of work. Thx again!
Click to expand...

I only have three "cuts" in 2020. It's the ones with strikethrough on their names. I didn't make any cuts in 2021. It's hard to predict a year from now where players will be.

1. Janoris Jenkins - This doesn't necessarily have to be a cut. Basically his current contract is too pricy. I cut him and re-signed Apple just to make it easy for me. You could instead view this as reworking Jenkins' contract for the same type of numbers but let Apple walk. Keeping both isn't likely regardless of cap. You don't pay two #2 CBs.

2. Kiko Alonso - I actually put him as retired. He's up there in age and coming off his 3rd major knee injury. He wouldn't be much of a factor next year. Healthy or not he is paid more than his value.

3. Patrick Robinson - He only played in I think 2 or 3 games last year and he's up there in age. Doesn't make much sense to me for getting an above-average salary. Really it doesn't change much to just keep him so this really doesn't matter whichever way you prefer to go.

EDIT: I see the "cut" I think you were talking about. The box to the right. Don't worry about those. That's just where you click to cut them if you want to.
overthecap.com

New Orleans Saints Salary Cap Calculator | Over The Cap

Become the fantasy general manager for the New Orleans Saints using the OTC salary cap calculator and roster management system
overthecap.com
 
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Stalwart385 said:
I only have three "cuts" in 2020. It's the ones with strikethrough on their names. I didn't make any cuts in 2021. It's hard to predict a year from now where players will be.

1. Janoris Jenkins - This doesn't necessarily have to be a cut. Basically his current contract is too pricy. I cut him and re-signed Apple just to make it easy for me. You could instead view this as reworking Jenkins' contract for the same type of numbers but let Apple walk. Keeping both isn't likely regardless of cap. You don't pay two #2 CBs.

2. Kiko Alonso - I actually put him as retired. He's up there in age and coming off his 3rd major knee injury. He wouldn't be much of a factor next year. Healthy or not he is paid more than his value.

3. Patrick Robinson - He only played in I think 2 or 3 games last year and he's up there in age. Doesn't make much sense to me for getting an above-average salary. Really it doesn't change much to just keep him so this really doesn't matter whichever way you prefer to go.

EDIT: I see the "cut" I think you were talking about. The box to the right. Don't worry about those. That's just where you click to cut them if you want to.
overthecap.com

New Orleans Saints Salary Cap Calculator | Over The Cap

Become the fantasy general manager for the New Orleans Saints using the OTC salary cap calculator and roster management system
overthecap.com
Click to expand...

Awesome. Thx so much Stalwart for the explanation. Seriously - great work!
 

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