Saints 2020 and 2021 (edit) Possible Player Crisis (edit) (What Front Offices Don't Often Tell their Fans). This is an End User Modeler (I hope) (1 Viewer)

[Swimmer]

We are facing a massive talent loss in 2020 and 2021 including many young stars. I wanted us to be able to see the actual players, their numbers and be able for each viewer to do scenarios as they see best fit. I have been playing with these numbers in a live Google Sheets spreadsheet and it's real scary. We haven't had the numbers nor tools to see what the Saints FO is actually looking at and using for the basis for planning the actual 2020 and 2021 rosters. The purpose of this is so that we can see and model scenarios close to what the FO and SP are doing. Btw: this is real long with tons of actual data. If you want my early crisis observations, just view the Summary.

Here's Some Scary Facts that Jumped Off the Page for Me (SUMMARY)

2020 and 2021 Summary
- We have 17 Starters who will be FAs in 2020 and 2021 plus 9 Key Rotational Players

Players
2020 -A.J. Klein (2017-2019) Andrus Peat (2015-2019) Austin Carr (2017-2019) Cameron Tom (2019-2019) Colton Jumper (2019-2019) D.J. Swearinger (2019-2019) David Onyemata (2016-2019) Drew Brees (2018-2019) Dwayne Washington (2018-2019) Eli Apple (2016-2019) J.T. Gray (2019-2019) Johnson Bademosi (2019-2019) Josh Martin (2019-2019) Justin Hardee (2019-2019) Keith Kirkwood (2018-2019) Manti Te'o (2019-2019) Noah Spence (2019-2019) P.J. Williams (2019-2019) Patrick Omameh (2019-2019) Stephone Anthony (2019-2019) Taysom Hill (2017-2019) Ted Ginn Jr. (2017-2019) Teddy Bridgewater (2019-2019) Vonn Bell (2016-2019) Zach Line (2018-2019) Zach Wood (2019-2019), 2021 Alex Anzalone (2017-2020) Avlvin Kamara (2017-2020) Cole Wick (2020-2020) Craig Robertson (2019-2020) Demario Davis (2018-2020) Garrett Griffin (2019-2020) Janoris Jenkins (2016-2020) Jared Cook (2019-2020) Jason Vander Laan (2019-2020) Kiko Alonso (2017-2020) Krishawn Hogan (2019-2020) Larry Warford (2017-2020) Lil’jordan Humphrey (2019-2020) Marcus Williams (2017-2020) Mario Edwards (2019-2020) Maurice Harris (2020-2020) Ricky Ortiz (2020-2020) Sheldon Rankins (2016-2020) Taylor Stallworth (2019-2020) Trey Hendrickson (2017-2020)

- We need to reduce the current 2020 estimated cap by $68 million this year and nearly $50 million more next year

- As far as potential talent loss, this year is bad. Next year looks tragic for talent loss of key and star players

- And there's no Money left for any FAs


2020 FAs
- 8 more starters become FAs and 5 more key Rotational players are FAs including: Klein, Peat, Onyemata, Brees, Apple, T Hill, Ginn, V Bell and Line

- If we reduce the $68,000,000 required this year

- There's no money for new Free Agents

2021 FAs
- 9 more starters become FAs and 4 more key rotational players including: Anzalone, Kamara, Robertson, Demario Davis, Janoris Jenkins, Jared Cook, Alonso, Warford, Marcus Williams, Mario Edwards, Rankins, Stallworth and Hendrickson.

- If we reduce the $68,000,000 required this year, we need to reduce another $50 plus million in 2021

- There's no money for new Free Agents

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Assumptions and Notes

1) I made some estimates on cap hit costs if we keep players. idk this stuff so would like those who do to really step on for all of you to have this tool to see what you think it will look like and the moves they will have to make
2) The real Google Sheet is Color-coded and mathematically interactive. So if you delete a player, it reduces that from the project cap for that year. 2020 FAs and 2021 FAs are color coded in yellow, Starter in Yellow also. Top rotational players in light green and meh players with no color coding
3) In the real Google Sheet, it's like a game. When you delete a player, his cap hit gets deleted from the total cap hit. The Projected actual Cap for 2020 and 2021 are conditionally formatted so that anything above the Projected actual Caps are in Red cell until you delete enough players, or you can even restructure the numbers for Loomis type moves. When the user modified cap goes below the Projected actual Cap, the cell turns white

HELP PLEASE - Is there a way to embed an actual live Google Sheet into a SSF entry? If so, I can either follow instructions or PM you the live sheet.

Here's some frightening numbers and players at risk discovered in a few minutes of playing with the live Sheet. The one I pasted in below from Google Sheet is not mathematically active or color coded, but you can all see the basic numbers and players

Again, please keep in mind for future contracts I just guessed my best and my best at legit numbers for future player contracts is not awe inspiring for accuracy - lol

Here's Some Scary Facts that Jumped Off the Page for Me

2020 and 2021 Summary
- We have 17 Starters who will be FAs in 2020 and 2021 plus 9 Key Rotational Players

Players (Starters in Red font, key Rotational players in Blue font)
2020 -A.J. Klein (2017-2019) Andrus Peat (2015-2019) Austin Carr (2017-2019) Cameron Tom (2019-2019) Colton Jumper (2019-2019) D.J. Swearinger (2019-2019) David Onyemata (2016-2019) Drew Brees (2018-2019) Dwayne Washington (2018-2019) Eli Apple (2016-2019) J.T. Gray (2019-2019) Johnson Bademosi (2019-2019) Josh Martin (2019-2019) Justin Hardee (2019-2019) Keith Kirkwood (2018-2019) Manti Te'o (2019-2019) Noah Spence (2019-2019) P.J. Williams (2019-2019) Patrick Omameh (2019-2019) Stephone Anthony (2019-2019) Taysom Hill (2017-2019) Ted Ginn Jr. (2017-2019) Teddy Bridgewater (2019-2019) Vonn Bell (2016-2019) Zach Line (2018-2019) Zach Wood (2019-2019), 2021 Alex Anzalone (2017-2020) Avlvin Kamara (2017-2020) Cole Wick (2020-2020) Craig Robertson (2019-2020) Demario Davis (2018-2020) Garrett Griffin (2019-2020) Janoris Jenkins (2016-2020) Jared Cook (2019-2020) Jason Vander Laan (2019-2020) Kiko Alonso (2017-2020) Krishawn Hogan (2019-2020) Larry Warford (2017-2020) Lil’jordan Humphrey (2019-2020) Marcus Williams (2017-2020) Mario Edwards (2019-2020) Maurice Harris (2020-2020) Ricky Ortiz (2020-2020) Sheldon Rankins (2016-2020) Taylor Stallworth (2019-2020) Trey Hendrickson (2017-2020)

- We need to reduce the current 2020 estimated cap by $68 million this year and nearly $50 million more next year

- As far as potential talent loss, this year is bad. Next year looks tragic for talent loss of key and star players

- And there's no Money left for any FAs


2020 FAs
- 8 more starters become FAs and 5 more key Rotational players are FAs including: Klein, Peat, Onyemata, Brees, Apple, T Hill, Ginn, V Bell and Line

- If we reduce the $68,000,000 required this year

- There's no money for new Free Agents



2021 FAs
- 9 more starters become FAs and 4 more key rotational players are FAs

- If we reduce the $68,000,000 required this year, we need to reduce another $50 plus million in 2021

- There's no money for new Free Agents

- We have 8 2020 FA starters and 5 Rotational Starters and many are stars, then top players and solid players including: Anzalone, Kamara, Robertson, Demario Davis, Janoris Jenkins, Jared Cook, Alonso, Warford, Marcus Williams, Mario Edwards, Rankins, Stallworth and Hendrickson.



Note: Had to delete the full spreadsheet. It was too big for the post

 

[insidejob]

Didn't Zach Line come out and say he was retiring or did I dream that? Pretty sure it was reality. That's just the first thing that jumped out at me because he's listed as a FA. He'll have to be replaced regardless, so the point still stands, it just won't be him.

I'll comment more if/when I have the time to get through this post this afternoon.

 

[LiterOCola]

The cap is merely a suggestion. Loomis knows contracts and already has a plan multiple years out.

Some players will leave, some will restructure or take smaller than expected new contracts. Cap space will also go up. The CBA renegotiation will upend a lot of the math normies like us use today.

It seems like every year we will have zero cap room, yet every year the Saints are at least somewhat active in free agency.

 

[baarbogast]

The CBA ends next season, no need to hit the panic button. If BBrees retires next year, he is only $5M hit. We will have another class of rookies come in and the cap rises.

2021 off season may be extended and it is unknown what the cap will be or if it will exist.

 

[football]

Regardless if you believe Swimmer or not, have to give him props for putting a lot of efforts and thoughts to his post. Way better than what our reporters do here. However I am not going to read all that. Too much and a lot of moving parts later on anyway.

 

[gregh]

no way they can continue to pay Drew 20 mil while carrying all that dead money. if he comes back he needs to at a drastic cut..

 

[insidejob]

no way they can continue to pay Drew 20 mil while carrying all that dead money. if he comes back he needs to at a drastic cut..

They've managed to do it for quite some time now. I'm sure Loomis has a plan. He's not coming back at less than $20M. And he shouldn't.

 

[WxM]

There's a lot I could do as a response to this post, but without putting in place any kind of cap wizardry, I was able to knock $36 million off that supposed $68 million without even trying, just by axing a bunch of replacement level players. The only noteworthy guys are starters Peat, Apple, Klein, and Ginn...who most would agree are our worst starters anyway.

Teddy isn't likely to return. If he does, it's because we'll be able to afford him. There's another $10 million.

If Vonn Bell is coming back, no way will his first year cap hit be near $10 million. Maybe half that, but probably not even.

The sky is not falling.

I'll concede that this offseason does appear more challenging than most, but as with any challenge, there is great opportunity. The Saints have real reason to err on the side of trimming the fat and taking chances on upgrading weaker starters that fans have been clamoring for, as opposed to returning everyone for the sake of continuity.

 

[TribuneUK]

Swim, genuine feedback here - your posts seem to be getting more alarmist/dramatic than is actually necessary.

You've put a lot of effort in, which doesn't need the semi-conspiracy theory undertones of 'What the FO doesn't want you to know'. If it's good content, people will read and respond.

In respect of the problem as you've stated it, perhaps it would be better placed in context against previous years where there are multiple contracts that projected us and other teams way over the cap. You might well find that trimming tens of millions is not that hard or unusual. And I say that as someone who doesn't buy into the 'there is no cap where Loomis is concerned' statement. But I do respect that he knows his job.

 

[saint_drago]

Well that was dramatic lol. This was like Alex Jones turning into an internet post.

We have a lot of good players but we're not going to be able to pay them all. That's the nature of the business. Nothing scary or tragic about it. The Brees era is nearing it's end. Some drastic changes are on the horizon one way or another. We just have to see how it all shakes out.

 

[DaveParks1]

We are no different than everyone else. The 49ers are in a much worse situation. I was actually pleased reading this post, since most of the starters were not the team's core, and we can keep the few elite players. And looking two years out tells you little, since we will have 2 more draft classes and FA classes who will necessarily replace a majority of those on the list anyway

 

[Pkessling]

I don’t think some of those players even factor into next season: Peat, Ginn, Austin Carr, Klein, Alonso, etc.
If we were planning on resigning our entire 2019 roster it would be a problem. Not seeing that.

 

[Swimmer]

Well that was dramatic lol. This was like Alex Jones turning into an internet post.

We have a lot of good players but we're not going to be able to pay them all. That's the nature of the business. Nothing scary or tragic about it. The Brees era is nearing it's end. Some drastic changes are on the horizon one way or another. We just have to see how it all shakes out.

The voice of reason! Thx Drago.

I don't know player contracts very well. Like all, basically understand the cap. I just put the numbers as reported by Sportrac (sp?). I've heard cap should be about $200 million this year. When I guessed at the 2020 contracts and cap hit, again just a guess from me, it would take roughly $270 million. We all know Loomis can sign contracts, reduce current cap hit and push out to the future, so even if I was close to the average cap hit over the potential 2020 FA resignings, I'm going to be wrong on actual cap hit.

imho, it both leads to support Coach Pete's info that the Saints are going after Burrow by be willing to trade sa bunch of our young stars we will likely lose anyway, while at the same time shows, at least to me, that we would be gutting the team for a bunch of years if we get Burrow. Lost multi-year high draft picks and loss of a bunch of young stars and solid players does not seem positive to me. But I will not doubt Loomis and SP and Ireland.

 

[Swimmer]

The post was so freakin long with tons of raw data.

Buried in that huge unruly monster was the offer to send my Google Sheet for this to anyone who wants to play with the model. Just PM me and I'll be happy to send. I would love to see what some of the real experts on the Board can do with these numbers.

 

[TribuneUK]

imho, it both leads to support Coach Pete's info that the Saints are going after Burrow by be willing to trade sa bunch of our young stars we will likely lose anyway, while at the same time shows, at least to me, that we would be gutting the team for a bunch of years if we get Burrow. Lost multi-year high draft picks and loss of a bunch of young stars and solid players does not seem positive to me. But I will not doubt Loomis and SP and Ireland.

You already have a thread full of converts to the Pete-Burrow reality show, you don't need to go fishing for more forum credibility here.

The responses to your OP so far all seem fairly close to unified, along the lines of 'meh' and that this isn't some big crisis, and certainly nothing that supports the need to offload players* just to match up an LSU QB with a Louisiana sports team.

* Also, in terms of trading players away to acquire a no.1 pick, that has not happened a single time since back before the salary cap era, 29 years ago. It would seem as likely as the Saints somehow trading a player whose contract has expired - an idea that still gets posted here many times regardless.

In short, I wouldn't hold your breath ?