Saints at a crossroads (1 Viewer)

[Saint Spud]

The Saints are about to become the victim of their own success, in a way. Yes, Mickey Loomis is one of the best in the business at manipulating the salary cap. But at some point, even the great Mr. Loomis can’t make every guaranteed dollar disappear. The Saints’ rise to the top of the NFC South since 2017 has also coincided with them drafting some very solid, maybe even elite, contributors.

Those players are about to get paid. Which means the Saints have two choices:

1. Lose some very good players and hope they can fill the voids via the draft.

2. Take advantage of the NFL’s great hack: a QB on a rookie deal.

Let’s assume the Patriots are the outlier here (as they are with everything). The Legion of Boom Seahawks were a great example of this. They won a Super Bowl with Russell Wilson on a rookie deal. It allowed them to pay their great defensive players to keep that core together.

But once Wilson’s rookie Deal ran out and he got (deservedly) paid, they couldn’t keep the core together. The players they did pay got older and the ones they tried to draft to replace them weren’t as effective. They’ve been pretty good since, but not nearly what they were.

The Broncos Super Bowl championship team had Peyton Manning on a relatively big deal (especially considering how much his play had fallen off), but they were fortunate to have Von Miller on a rookie contract, among others. Once they had to pay Miller and Osweiler didn’t turn out to be “the guy,” they’ve fallen off a cliff.

Philadelphia won a Super Bowl thanks to their starter being on a rookie deal. They were fortunate that a relatively inexpensive backup (Foles) filled in and led them to a title when he got hurt, but that doesn’t happen if they don’t have the cap flexibility to pay the core around their QBs.

And, of course, the Chiefs won with Mahomes on his rookie deal. He’s phenomenal, but they’re gonna have to pay him soon, too. And they’ll be at a similar crossroads.

That brings us to the Saints. We are in a similar spot as that Broncos team in that we have an aging QB on a big $ deal and no surefire successor on a rookie contract. Even if Taysom is “the guy,” he would have to get paid like “the guy” at some point soon.

I’m fascinated to see what SP decides to do. We know he loved Mahomes. There were plenty of rumors he loved Lamar Jackson. He’s known for awhile this crossroads was coming.

I don’t think we have a shot to trade up for Burrow, as much fun as the Pete thread has been. But given our current situation, I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see Payton make a jump for one of the QBs in a fairly strong class. It would allow us to transition from Brees to the rookie, and still pay some of our strong young players we’ve drafted.

Personally, I’d love to see Payton working with Jordan Love for a year. Or, we could see him draft potential successors to players we are going to lose if we pay Taysom. Regardless, it’s gonna be a fun few weeks.

 

[insidejob]

Best case scenario in regards to Hill, we sign him to a deal that pays him relative to the number of snaps he takes at QB on like a 4 year deal. Obviously, we'd have to give him a decent base salary just for doing all the things he does well now but could set it up to pay him three times that if he takes 85%+ the snaps at QB (IE: becomes the starter when Drew retires). Say that's $6M (and say $24M guaranteed) base as the gadget he is now, he could be making $18M - that could be renegotiated if he turns into a serious stud - with all kinds of incentives, etc. to make up for some extra money. Or we could just rework the deal completely if he does turn out to be "The Next Steve Young" like Payton claims. I would hope we can draft a QB this year to both be Brees's backup and possibly groom to compete with Hill when Drew retires.

I know this doesn't address your point about rookie deals being the way to go for franchise QBs. But if there is one thing Payton has proven to be, it's loyal. Hill has given his all and done every single thing Payton has asked him to do and done it quite well, so I expect him to give Hill a real shot at QB. It's not like he snagged him off GB's PS because he saw him as a gunner/punt blocker/WR/TE/H-Back - that all just came as gravy.

I'm just going to say that I'm not worried about the QB position going forward because I believe Payton is going to do what's best for the team in the end. With Hill turning 30 before next season starts, we could draft a QB this year, coach him up and possibly pull a Belichick/Jimmy G. deal if Hill ends up being a franchise QB next year and worry about drafting his replacement towards the end of his first long term deal.


(I just kinda whipped this up, so if it isn't realistic, I'll just delete it)

 

[Bespoke]

If Brees and Taysom are coming back I'd rather just squeeze this Window for all it's worth, live in the moment and try to win a Championship in the next 2 years.

Rather than start the re-build process too early, and start shipping off some talent a year earlier than needed.

If the Saints can win a Championship in 2020, or '21 with the current roster.. I'm fine with going through some 6 - 7 win seasons afterward and then finally going through a re-build.. that's when the next QB can be brought in.

With a solid Free agency I really only think the Saints are maybe 3-4 players away from a Championship with the current roster. (Another solid Corner/Nickel option, Reliable secondary WR, solid coverage LB, and steady LG) and considering how in recent Drafts the Saints were able to come away with guys like McCoy and CGJ, immediate impact rookies I think they have a better shot at just shooting for an impact CB, WR, OL, LB than taking Love and having him sit behind Drew for a year; I'm also not 100% sold on Love being sure fire.

 

[los226]

The proverbial window is closing. The front office did everything they could to build a great team and I believe that they built a dynasty type team. From drafting, coaching changes, and free agency. Unfortunately, as you stated, it’s all about to come to an end and they have no SB title to show for it. At least we have three straight NFC South Championships and a ton of wins. It was a fun ride, but it’s the beginning of the end unless they duplicate the drafting that they did in 2017. I doubt that any team duplicates that quality of draft for a very long time. I was over the 2018 NFC championship robbery, but those feelings are reignited due to our current situation.

 

[insidejob]

and steady LG

I actually thought the line was better with Easton at LG than it was with Peat. He might not be as good of a run blocker as Peat, but was much better in pass protection and I think we signed him to a 4 year deal.

 

[TribuneUK]

The 'rookie QB hack' is a myth. Because if it was such a great trick, everyone would draft a new QB after 4/5 years.

But of course they don't, because once you find a good QB you do everything you can to re-sign them to that expensive second, third contract, due to the fact that finding a good QB is actually pretty hard, there's a lot of competition for a very limited supply, and you can't be sure they will even pan out.

That's why those vested QBs are with their teams for so long. Seattle still threaten to be in the Super Bowl most years despite what Wilson costs, because Wilson is worth the money.

You might get a little bonus cap space for a few years of a QB's first contfact, but it's not a legitimate team building strategy.

 

[Saint Spud]

The 'rookie QB hack' is a myth. Because if it was such a great trick, everyone would draft a new QB after 4/5 years.

But of course they don't, because once you find a good QB you do everything you can to re-sign them to that expensive second, third contract, due to the fact that finding a good QB is actually pretty hard, there's a lot of competition for a very limited supply, and you can't be sure they will even pan out.

That's why those vested QBs are with their teams for so long. Seattle still threaten to be in the Super Bowl most years despite what Wilson costs, because Wilson is worth the money.

You might get a little bonus cap space for a few years of a QB's first contfact, but it's not a legitimate team building strategy.

It isn’t. I just explained and showed examples of how it’s proven to be true.

I never said you don’t re-sign that QB. But it comes at a cost. And unless you are positive you have one, you risk putting yourself in a massive hole by overspending on one who isn’t a true franchise QB.

 

[Zack Lee]

The NFL hack you speak of is more of an albatross than many think look what happened to the Rams. Why? Because Russell Wilson’s are rare. Yea it will happen but that is a real lottery hit - the guy good enough in the first couple of years to get you there and great enough to perform his best when all the marbles are down.

 

[TribuneUK]

It isn’t. I just explained and showed examples of how it’s proven to be true.

I never said you don’t re-sign that QB. But it comes at a cost. And unless you are positive you have one, you risk putting yourself in a massive hole by overspending on one who isn’t a true franchise QB.

Well to be fair I did say:

You might get a little bonus cap space for a few years of a QB's first contfact, but it's not a legitimate team building strategy.

And I also explained that the team that finds a good one has to re-sign them, because you don't just pop to the shops and pick up another one.

It's actually a fairly horrible dilemma when you get to the point of that second contract, for exactly the reason you mention, if you're not convinced of their quality and if they're worth the market rate. Normally because there's so few other options around and only a few teams are picking high enough in the first round to feel good about a rookie option.

 

[Saint Spud]

The NFL hack you speak of is more of an albatross than many think look what happened to the Rams. Why? Because Russell Wilson’s are rare. Yea it will happen but that is a real lottery hit - the guy good enough in the first couple of years to get you there and great enough to perform his best when all the marbles are down.

Goff actually proves my point. The Rams overpaid him after they made the Super Bowl. Plus they overpaid Gurley and now they're a salary cap disaster for years to come.

 

[Saint Spud]

Well to be fair I did say:

And I also explained that the team that finds a good one has to re-sign them, because you don't just pop to the shops and pick up another one.

It's actually a fairly horrible dilemma when you get to the point of that second contract, for exactly the reason you mention, if you're not convinced of their quality and if they're worth the market rate. Normally because there's so few other options around and only a few teams are picking high enough in the first round to feel good about a rookie option.

Ah okay. Yeah, I think we're more on the same page than how I originally interpreted the response.

The real problems occur when you overpay a guy who is NOT the franchise QB. It appears the Rams may have made that mistake with Goff. I fully trust Payton to make the right decision wrt Taysom, and yet if Taysom isn't truly a franchise QB, signing him to a big $ deal will put us in a terrible spot moving forward.

The point about Wilson wasn't that the Seahawks made a mistake in paying him. It's that they had a much larger margin for error when he was on a rookie deal and they could afford to pay big $ to guys around him. Once they had to pay him, the "hack" went away and they were forced to be more precise with their evaluations.

 

[TribuneUK]

Ah okay. Yeah, I think we're more on the same page than how I originally interpreted the response.

The real problems occur when you overpay a guy who is NOT the franchise QB. It appears the Rams may have made that mistake with Goff. I fully trust Payton to make the right decision wrt Taysom, and yet if Taysom isn't truly a franchise QB, signing him to a big $ deal will put us in a terrible spot moving forward.

The point about Wilson wasn't that the Seahawks made a mistake in paying him. It's that they had a much larger margin for error when he was on a rookie deal and they could afford to pay big $ to guys around him. Once they had to pay him, the "hack" went away and they were forced to be more precise with their evaluations.

Yeah, we're not really disagreeing by much. But I think it's still a significant fact that most teams can't just move on from even a fairly mediocre starter easily, because there aren't a lot of replacement level options floating around.

 

[Winter]

We won the superbowl with a QB not on his rookie contract

 

[Saint Spud]

We won the superbowl with a QB not on his rookie contract

Correct. But our:

-Star WR
-Star RB
-All Pro G
-Future Pro Bowl T&Gs

All were. Not to mention more starters at CB, SS, DT, RB, WR, OT, P and other contributors.

Unless you're the Patriots, history shows it's very rare to win a SB with your QB AND most of your core on second contracts or beyond. We are about to have a lot of players hit the end of their rookie deals. So we will either have to watch many of them walk away or draft a QB to offset the cost of new deals.

 

[dutar76]

I'm not ready to discount the "hack". Yes, you do have to find that one in a million dude to play QB, but that's kind of the goal anyway. IF you find that guy, then you're in business for a few years till the rookie contract runs out. After that you're back to where we've been for years. Great but expensive QB and a slim cap margin.

But our current situation is a bit different. We currently have a great but expensive QB, not cripplingly expensive though. At least not until he retires. We also have a winning roster. We ARE and HAVE BEEN contenders for the past 3 years. I dont partake in the mass hysteria that 13-3 means nothing and teams have to be built differently to win playoff games. That's silly and sad hogwash.

Our best shot in my opinion is to draft a QB. We just gotta get it right on the first try or we're in danger of falling into that whirlpool a lot of teams have fallen into. You can make a case for or against any scenario, but truthfully, Drew's dead cap pretty much demands that we hit on a rookie or devolve to a complete rebuild.

Now on the rookie path intrigues me for another reason. Sean has been in league with one of the best to ever do it forever now. He's fiery and has been known to doghouse a player that screws up. He couldn't really do that with Drew. Drew has a bad game or 3? Well, he cant very well get in Drew's ***. So what's he do when the young QB makes those same game losing mistakes? That could get ugly.